Paris/Quebec City: Week of Oct.27

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  • meganie
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 09-09-08
    • 591

    #71
    Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
    My own opinion as always, never play anything above about -165 to -170 on a single play. Very real chance Nalbandian could win and I'd rather lose a smaller amount on a parlay than a big one on a single play.
    I played Murray single, but with smaller stake than as usual. Quality tennis so far.
    Comment
    • HeeeHAWWWW
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 06-13-08
      • 5487

      #72
      If anyone doesn't know, Federer is out. Tsonga or Roddick will fancy their chances to make the final from that side of the draw now.

      I reckon Nalbandian is favourite now. Got him at +1400 an hour ago, even at half that he's huge value.
      Comment
      • meganie
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 09-09-08
        • 591

        #73
        to the crowd for booing an obviously injured Nadal.
        Comment
        • EaglesPhan36
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 12-06-06
          • 71662

          #74
          Anyone else think it's fishy that Federer pulled out against his friend James Blake? Blake made those nice comments about how Federer's season should still be looked upon with awe and now knowing Blake needs help to get to Shanghai ... his back got too stiff to play?
          Comment
          • kary23
            SBR High Roller
            • 09-20-08
            • 137

            #75
            no if he was his friend he would have taken the fall and had both of them cash in. Seems like a real a-hole to me!
            Comment
            • meganie
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 09-09-08
              • 591

              #76
              Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
              Anyone else think it's fishy that Federer pulled out against his friend James Blake? Blake made those nice comments about how Federer's season should still be looked upon with awe and now knowing Blake needs help to get to Shanghai ... his back got too stiff to play?
              This week has been a joke, with the joke tournament in Quebec and the performances of Federer and Nadal. If Roddick wins today and loses against his friend Blake than Nalbandian should crush him in the final. I'd like to know, if Federer would have withdrawn, if he had known that Nadal would retire.
              Comment
              • EaglesPhan36
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 12-06-06
                • 71662

                #77
                Nadal honestly didn't surprise me that much. In reading about him lately, he had been complaining alot about fatigue. I'm honestly a little surprised Nadal or Fed didn't skip this tournament in prep for Shanghai. All I know is next week, betting on Nadal as a big favorite will be suicide.
                Comment
                • meganie
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 09-09-08
                  • 591

                  #78
                  Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                  Nadal honestly didn't surprise me that much. In reading about him lately, he had been complaining alot about fatigue. I'm honestly a little surprised Nadal or Fed didn't skip this tournament in prep for Shanghai. All I know is next week, betting on Nadal as a big favorite will be suicide.
                  Next week is Doha.
                  Comment
                  • meganie
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 09-09-08
                    • 591

                    #79
                    The best bet for tomorrow is imo Nalbandian at -125. This line will drop a lot, I guess. Davydenko isn't in THAT top form to beat a Nalbandian who played like THAT against Murray.
                    Comment
                    • EaglesPhan36
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 12-06-06
                      • 71662

                      #80
                      Sorry, meant in a couple weeks. Forget there is time in between Paris and Shanghai.
                      Comment
                      • meganie
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 09-09-08
                        • 591

                        #81
                        Now I know how you felt when Monfils was too dumb to convert his breakpoints. Roddick had 10 (!!) breakpoints in the second set and didn't make one single break.
                        Comment
                        • EaglesPhan36
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 12-06-06
                          • 71662

                          #82
                          Got you a big one there in the 3rd though (Tsonga double fault - it's all the same!). Tsonga can't expect to continuously fend off that many breaks. That's why I think he was lucky to be where he is in this tournament.
                          Comment
                          • EaglesPhan36
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 12-06-06
                            • 71662

                            #83
                            Looks like a 3rd set tie break could be in the offering here. Each dude got broken once here in the 3rd.

                            Hey Meg - what happened to the no bets on the weekend? You sound like you're sold on making that Nalbandian play.


                            IMO, if Tsonga somehow wins - I think Blake would make a great underdog wager - having the extra day off and Tsonga with another three setter.
                            Comment
                            • HeeeHAWWWW
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 06-13-08
                              • 5487

                              #84
                              Roddick keeps making that stupid spinny forehand approach shot. Centre court in Paris is slow, and that bounces high enough to allow Tsonga to muscle a winning pass down the line.

                              Use a slow slice to his backhand, dumbass.
                              Comment
                              • meganie
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 09-09-08
                                • 591

                                #85
                                Roddick = choke of the month. He should've won it in straight.

                                @Eagles
                                I know, but I really like Nalbandian at current price.
                                Comment
                                • meganie
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 09-09-08
                                  • 591

                                  #86
                                  That's it. I lost a fortune due to Roddick's dumbness. I'll stop posting my picks, it's hopeless and frustrating with chokers like Roddick.
                                  Comment
                                  • EaglesPhan36
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 12-06-06
                                    • 71662

                                    #87
                                    Join the club bro. This was a rough week. This tournament was one of the most unpredictable in quite some time.

                                    Interested to see the Tsonga/Blake price. According to Shanghai Masters site, this match is pretty much Blake's shot at getting to Shanghai.

                                    Qualifies with SF and no more than one of the following happens: del Potro and Simon reach Round of 16, Wawrinka or Tsonga reach final, Verdasco, Monfils, Nalbandian and Soderling wins title.

                                    - Qualifies with final and no more than two of the following happens: Roddick reaches Round of 16, del Potro and Simon reach semifinals, Wawrinka wins title.
                                    If he wins vs. Tsonga, he is in if I understand all that.
                                    Comment
                                    • meganie
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 09-09-08
                                      • 591

                                      #88
                                      Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                                      Join the club bro. This was a rough week. This tournament was one of the most unpredictable in quite some time.
                                      I know. But it wasn't THAT he lost, I didn't put to much money before the match, but HOW he lost. He had 9 aces in the first set, so I put quite a stake on him making more aces -> he lost with 1 ace difference and 5 aces in the rest of the match. He had 17 (!!!) breakpoints and was dumb enough to take one in the last set and immediately losing it.
                                      I wouldn't have lost too much, if he just lost in straight.

                                      Yeah, if he makes the final, he's in, if Tsonga wins the tournament, he's in.
                                      Comment
                                      • EaglesPhan36
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 12-06-06
                                        • 71662

                                        #89
                                        Believe me man if anyone understands bad beats this week, it's me. You had alot more plays that hit than I did. You can't account for guys not taking advantage of gimme opportunities like that.

                                        I'm guessing Tsonga should be at least as big a favorite as Roddick was today. So opening at maybe -140ish? If it's higher, dare I say that I would be TEMPTED to take some action on Blake.
                                        Comment
                                        • meganie
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 09-09-08
                                          • 591

                                          #90
                                          Thanks for your kind words. Feeling a little bit better now.

                                          I'm pretty sure that Tsonga will be at least -150 at opening and that the line will move a lot to his side. Wouldn't be surprised to see him end up like -200 or so.
                                          Comment
                                          • meganie
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 09-09-08
                                            • 591

                                            #91
                                            Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                                            I'm guessing Tsonga should be at least as big a favorite as Roddick was today. So opening at maybe -140ish? If it's higher, dare I say that I would be TEMPTED to take some action on Blake.
                                            Most bookies opened at about -160, though pinnacle has him at -140. Blake's line at about +130.
                                            Comment
                                            • kary23
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 09-20-08
                                              • 137

                                              #92
                                              Tsonga is the man! Best day in Tennis ever won Bet all the dogs in Paris today and f'n smoked em. How sweet it is to be alive. The air just seems that much fresher and my tallywacker in my pants is beating like a drum!
                                              Comment
                                              • kary23
                                                SBR High Roller
                                                • 09-20-08
                                                • 137

                                                #93
                                                oh and forgot also mattek in that stupid canada tourny nailed for me I can't f'n go wrong!
                                                Comment
                                                • meganie
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 09-09-08
                                                  • 591

                                                  #94
                                                  Originally posted by kary23
                                                  Tsonga is the man! Best day in Tennis ever won Bet all the dogs in Paris today and f'n smoked em. How sweet it is to be alive. The air just seems that much fresher and my tallywacker in my pants is beating like a drum!

                                                  You're the guy who predicted an easy Murray victory. Joker.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • EaglesPhan36
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 12-06-06
                                                    • 71662

                                                    #95
                                                    Gonna watch the line tonight. If Blake goes to +150, I'm gonna be a dummy and put a little bit on it. I expect that match will be very similar to the Roddick/Tsonga match. Plenty of aces, plenty of blown opportunities. I just think that Tsonga's fitness is the X factor here and three 3 set matches this week may have worn him down. Then again, he could be rejuvenated knowing that his road to Shanghai is pretty much beating beatable players in Blake and then Davydenko or Nalbandian.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Spanks
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 04-12-07
                                                      • 2040

                                                      #96
                                                      Tsonga will beat Blake ...
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Spanks
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 04-12-07
                                                        • 2040

                                                        #97
                                                        Nadal retired after losing the first set...thats pure class right there...davy can win too...
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Chad Hamilton
                                                          SBR Rookie
                                                          • 09-14-06
                                                          • 41

                                                          #98
                                                          Guys you are mistaken. Tsonga does not need to win the entire tourney to get to Shanghai. All he has to do is just beat Blake and same thing goes for Blake making it to Shanghai all he has to do is beat Tsonga. Regardless of what happens in the finals. They said this on the live video feed I watched the Roddick/Tsonga match today on after it was over. GL whatever you guys choose tomorrow I am personally going big on BOTH Nlabandian and Tsonga. The energy of the home crowd today for Tsonga was incredible and I dont think fitness is a factor right now as he is playing the best tennis of his life. And we all know about the fade Blake rule.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • meganie
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 09-09-08
                                                            • 591

                                                            #99
                                                            You're right. Mixed it up with Nalbandian. My bad.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Chad Hamilton
                                                              SBR Rookie
                                                              • 09-14-06
                                                              • 41

                                                              #100
                                                              Originally posted by meganie
                                                              You're right. Mixed it up with Nalbandian. My bad.
                                                              That is correct it is Nalbandian that needs to win it ALL to make it...GL tomorrow with him if you take him...will be with you also!!!

                                                              Comment
                                                              • meganie
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 09-09-08
                                                                • 591

                                                                #101
                                                                Yeah, I'm on him too. GL to you.

                                                                But I looked up the rankings again. Actually, if Nalbandian wins against Davydenko, Tsonga needs to win to get to Shanghai.

                                                                Because:
                                                                Del Potro 369p
                                                                Simon 356p

                                                                If Tsonga and Nalbandian get to the finals:
                                                                Tsonga 360p
                                                                Nalbandian 345p

                                                                So if Nalbandian wins, he has 375p and Tsonga would end up at 9th place.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Chad Hamilton
                                                                  SBR Rookie
                                                                  • 09-14-06
                                                                  • 41

                                                                  #102
                                                                  Originally posted by meganie
                                                                  Yeah, I'm on him too. GL to you.

                                                                  But I looked up the rankings again. Actually, if Nalbandian wins against Davydenko, Tsonga needs to win to get to Shanghai.

                                                                  Because:
                                                                  Del Potro 369p
                                                                  Simon 356p

                                                                  If Tsonga and Nalbandian get to the finals:
                                                                  Tsonga 360p
                                                                  Nalbandian 345p

                                                                  So if Nalbandian wins, he has 375p and Tsonga would end up at 9th place.
                                                                  Interesting info...never thught of it from that perspective...so Tsonga is in the drivers seat but potentially it could be a final to decide the last spot...that would be awesome!!!
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • HeeeHAWWWW
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 06-13-08
                                                                    • 5487

                                                                    #103
                                                                    Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                                                                    Nadal honestly didn't surprise me that much. In reading about him lately, he had been complaining alot about fatigue. I'm honestly a little surprised Nadal or Fed didn't skip this tournament in prep for Shanghai.

                                                                    I'm pretty sure they wanted to (federer didn't bother with Paris three years in a row), but ATP have got a bit stricter on the compulsory tournaments. Thus, turn up, mystery injury, leave. ATP will get the message.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • EaglesPhan36
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 12-06-06
                                                                      • 71662

                                                                      #104
                                                                      Originally posted by meganie
                                                                      Yeah, I'm on him too. GL to you.

                                                                      But I looked up the rankings again. Actually, if Nalbandian wins against Davydenko, Tsonga needs to win to get to Shanghai.

                                                                      Because:
                                                                      Del Potro 369p
                                                                      Simon 356p

                                                                      If Tsonga and Nalbandian get to the finals:
                                                                      Tsonga 360p
                                                                      Nalbandian 345p

                                                                      So if Nalbandian wins, he has 375p and Tsonga would end up at 9th place.
                                                                      Right on. This was on the Shanghai Masters site.

                                                                      12) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
                                                                      - Qualifies with Paris title

                                                                      - Qualifies by reaching final and no more than one of the following happens: del Potro wins a round, Simon or Ferrer reach QFs. Wawrinka, Nalbandian or Verdasco win title.
                                                                      I'm rooting for Tsonga to win. I love watching that guy play and he's a great dark horse wager for Shanghai. He can beat any of the top guys on a given day.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • meganie
                                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                                        • 09-09-08
                                                                        • 591

                                                                        #105
                                                                        I'm just hoping that Del Potro gets his place. He played nearly every week the last few months just to get in and Blake didn't put any effort in Madrid and Basel.

                                                                        I don't for whom I should root for in the final, both are great players. I guess this could be a great final.
                                                                        Comment
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