So much for Andreev learning anything last week. Blowing a 4-0 lead in the 2nd. What a choke job. Again. why am I still picking shit this week?
-
Comment -
I'm not gonna waste any more money on tennis. So Bolelli should win since I'm not betting it. That's how this shit works.
Comment -
My faith in mankind has been restored after Tsonga came back to win this afternoon. I needed that.Comment -
I'm sorry for you, Eagles, but I'm sure, you're doing better soon.
I'm having the best week so far since I make tennis bets. Just lost my two value bets, that's quite unbelievable. I think this could be a posititve week (If I stop after friday and don't try to make my sucky finals picks).
For tomorrow:
Roddick at -133
To be honest, I didn't count Roddick's game lately very high...till I saw him against Lopez. I was completely wrong with my rating that this match would be decided by tie breaks, Roddick dominated in every part of the game. He served well as usual, but it was his base line game that impressed me. He was quite active, hit some decent winners and drove Lopez to despair with his passing shots at Lopez' serve-and-volley. Simon has obviously a complete different game style as Lopez and he has been on fire lately, but Roddick impressed me too much.
Kohlschreiber at -142
Kohlschreiber's h2h against Blake is impressive, they met twice, both times at the same tournament, and both times the German won the matches in straight. Besides Blake is struggeling with his game lately. In Madrid, he simply gave away his match against Simon, who didn't play that well at that time, as he did later. In Basel last week he won two three setters against a reconvaleszent Kiefer and clay courter Oscar Hernandez, before he lost to Feliciano Lopez in straight. Today he also had a hard time against Bolelli. Kohlschreiber's biggest concern is probably his fitness, he had three three-setters after his injury and lost them all. Besides that he was solid in his previous rounds against Ferrer and Youzhny. But with Blake's current form, his impatience to finish points early and the fact that Kohlschreiber just played nearly about 1h at every match so far, I don't expect Kohlschreiber's fitness to be a big issue.
parlay: Kohlschreiber/Murray/Federer at -108
And I'm thinking about playing Davydenko at +130 or more. Any thoughts on that Eagles?Last edited by meganie; 10-29-08, 09:53 PM.Comment -
Matches with Russians and French men should be refunded. Tsonga nearly brought me a heart attack today, not to mention Mathieu, Gasquet, Andreev, Safin, Tursunov...
Comment -
Man I would find it hard not to like Giles Simon at plus money in this spot. Both guys really need this to get to Shanghai, Simon more-so. He worked over Karlovic in 3 sets in Madrid, so he's not going to be intimidated by the big serve. This one comes down to me to a simple formula - if Simon gets this to a 3rd set or happens to win the first set (tie break or simply breaking Roddick) - then he's going to win. Simon has really won over alot of folks - me included with his mental toughness, something i'm not sure Roddick has enough of.
Daydenko is an interesting one. He owns - OWNS Berdych to the tune of 8-0. Last time they met though was in April on clay and Berdych retired during a deadlock between the two in the 5th set. Both have played well here, Berdych has two matches down to Davydenko's one. As solidly as Davydenko might have been, he still had a tough time putting away the big serve of Ljubicic. I don't know. Davydenko withdrew with a wrist issue in St.Petersburg and he's been pretty lackadaisical in the last quarter of the season. Push comes to shove, I'd probably side with Berdych. Also remember Davydenko has his spot in Shanghai wrapped up, so I dunno.Comment -
Good spot, didn't know about that Berdych vs Davydenko record. Was going to bet on BigBerd before that, but think I avoid now - no way to judge motivation. Besides, who knows what you're getting when you bet on Davydenko.........
Betting on Simon sounds good. If he returns as well as he normally does than that's Roddick's big advantage neutered, and Simon will win most of the rallies given RoboRod's lack of mobility.Last edited by HeeeHAWWWW; 10-29-08, 08:39 PM.Comment -
A dart board throw for tomorrow - Monfils +350. Nadal has admitted he's tired and he's looked it. After he got beat in Madrid in singles a couple weeks ago, he withdrew from the doubles. The guy he lost to in Madrid - Gilles Simon - Monfils is another pesky Frenchman who if he can stay steady on his serve could pounce on Nadal's fitness in a 3rd set by running down shots.
I think this one and Simon are gonna be my only plays tomorrow. If I get 1-1, oughta make a little cash.Comment -
I wasn't very impressed by Monfils, when he played Monaco. No comparison to his first match in Madrid where he owned Gonzalez. On the other hand, I wasn't impressed by Nadal today either, so Monfils has probably a small chance, if he can step up.
Well, Blake has to get to the final to get a spot for Shanghai, the others have to win the tournament to do so. I think, both of them know that this is practically impossible with probably Federer waiting for Blake at the semis. I was simply too impressed by Roddick's game. I can understand your choice, but the fact that Simon recently lost to Söderling, who has a similar game style like Roddick's with probably more aggressive shots, and Roddick playing like this makes me impossible to choose Simon. If Roddick falls in his old pattern with his passive shots, Simon will probably win, but if not, I think Roddick should have a good chance to win.
I might back up my pick with a 2-1 victory of Simon, though.
Are you sure with the wrist injury? I read something like illness or so.
Davydenko just broke Ljubicic once, but he didn't face one single break point and Ljubicic just manage to win 21% of return points. I think Berdych's form isn't nearly as good as it was in Tokyo. He had a loss in Basel and was basically without chances against Nalbandian. He allowed 8 break points against Ginepri and that's pretty much for his standards. This match up sounds to me pretty even, I don't think, Berdych should be a -140 favorite or more. But I still don't know, I just saw the last game of Davydenko's match and wasn't too convinced. On the other hand, I saw the last game of Berdych's match and wasn't too convinced either. Not to mention that one game says basically nothing.Last edited by meganie; 10-29-08, 09:55 PM.Comment -
Story on Davydenko's wrist
I just question his health + desire at this stage of the season. Berdych isn't going anywhere after this, so this is his last shot at doing anything and added incentive perhaps to beat Davydenko for the first time. Just my thoughts there, I think Berdych is the play.Comment -
Ok, didn't know that. Gonna be a no play then. GL for tomorrow.Story on Davydenko's wrist
I just question his health + desire at this stage of the season. Berdych isn't going anywhere after this, so this is his last shot at doing anything and added incentive perhaps to beat Davydenko for the first time. Just my thoughts there, I think Berdych is the play.
@Chad
GL to you too.
Comment -
So here's what I got:
Simon +120(Roddick) - Medium Play
Berdych(Davydenko)/Djokovic(Tsonga) Parlay - Medium Play
Monfils +350(Nadal) - Small Play
The parlay might be my favorite. I like Djokovic alot in this spot against Tsonga who struggled against Stepanek and I think is still just not quite in the best shape possible. Djokovic would be eager to prove Tokyo was a fluke. And we discussed Berdy & Davy to death!
At this point, 1 out of 3 would be sweet....and expected.
Comment -
Alright guys I am rolling with these for tomorrow:
Nalbandian @ +130 over Del Potro
Simon @ +130 over Roddick
Kohlschreiber @ -150 over Blake
Federer/Murray/Nadal/Djokovic parlay @ -140
Berdych @ -150 IS MY PLAY OF THE DAY 0-7 LIFETIME AGAINST DAVYDENKO AND LINE IS THIS HIGH...WE KNOW WHAT THAT MEANS TYPICALLY IN SPORTS...LINE IS BEGGIN FOR DAVYDENKO MONEY AT PLUS ODDS...LOVE BERDYCH HERE!!!
GL TO ALL YOU GUYS TOO!!!!!!!!!!!
Last edited by Chad Hamilton; 10-29-08, 11:18 PM.Comment -
Your Djokovic pick looks a bit risky, since Tsonga beat him recently and he doesn't seem to be in the best form.
Don't know what to think about Nalbandian, line is moving extremly to Del Potro's side.
And why is Berdych your bet of the day? Regardless of the result, the guy isn't in the top form as he was one month ago.Comment -
Strictly based on the line and Davydenko shadiness...why is the line -150? Like I said is begging for Davykenko action at a juicy plus money odd...joe square sees 7-0 lifetime getting plus money he will be all over it like asians on rice...JMHO from reading lines in any sport over th years when I see something like this it typically works out more than it does not...GL!!!Comment -
He looked quite ok at the end of the match. For the most part, I agree. But the thing is Djokovic wasn't at his best against Tursunov either imo. You'll probably win this one, but Tsonga is a little bit unpredictable, one good match, one bad match. Hopefully Djokovic can finally play a really good match, so I can trust him again.
Then probably I'm a square too for considering betting on Davydenko.
But ok, wish you luck, I won't bet it, so just GL for you and Eagles on that one.Last edited by meganie; 10-30-08, 12:37 AM.Comment -
GL to you too brother I could be terribly wrong who knows should be great matches all over the place to watch tomorrow cant wait!!!
Comment -
Uh-oh, Roddick serving insanely well.Comment -
Wow was Roddick ever extremely agressive returning Simons 2nd serve or what...very impressive guess Simon didnt have another 3rd setter in him today lol...on a more positive note Nalbandian CRUSHED Del Potro....nice call on Roddick meganie!!! GL with the rest guys!!!
Comment -
My streak of awesomeness continues. I'm sticking to parlays for Shanghai and they won't be for much.
Congrats to you guys. I should just tail everyone else now since I couldn't pick a winner if my life depended on it.Comment -
At least Djokovic woke up here in the second somewhat. Still thinking he wears down Tsonga in the third if he gets there.Comment -
Looks like James Blake is smelling opportunity today. Bout the only time you should back Blake - when he's a dog, because he plays like one alot!Comment -
Tsonga wins.
Blake wins.
I'm not even bothering for the rest of the week. See you guys for Shaghai perhaps.Comment -
It's probably gonna wind up being Rafa beating down Monfils, but at +475 now - I mean c'mon! Gotta do it. Hope Rafa is tired.Comment -
Wow was I ever wrong about Djokovic...unreal...
Nice call on Tsonga meganie!!!
Comment -
Thx, but Kohlschreiber ruined my day. Had him in a parlay and as a single bet.
Strange line movement for the Davydenko-Berdych match. First the line moved to Berdych's favor and then it moved the other way from +135 to evens for Davydenko. Weird thing.Comment -
That's a bit risky, despite the price. I wish you a Monfils victory though, you deserve it!
Urghhhs, I learned my lesson. Hate players like Blake where you never know what you get, if you back or lay him.
And I played a couple of futures, Federer for victory and 1/2 price final and Murray for victory. I'm considering to take Roddick for victory/ final 1/2 price.Last edited by meganie; 10-30-08, 01:58 PM.Comment -
I actually thought about taking Blake because Kohlschreiber didn't see to have that big an advantage and Blake's serve has been cooking - but I'm gun shy in tennis this week with all my misses and very few hits. I didn't bet much on Monfils, basically enough that if he wins - it'll cover my losses from Simon & my parlay.
I think the Davydenko match - alot of people are probably finding out about that head-2-head record .... and I think that's an over-rated stat alot when players haven't played in awhile or the players form is entirely different now vs. then. The lower Berdych gets, the more I want to take that. But no. No. Yes?
Comment -
Well Monfils hasn't played all that badly, but Nadal is saving his breaks and Monfils isn't and that's gonna mean a quick straight sets win. Hey what's another loss at this point!Comment -
Picks for tomorrow:
Roddick at -122:
Roddick pretty much repeated his performance of yesterday and beat Simon in straight sets. Though I only got to see some part of the second set, I saw his terrific serve as usual and some winners. He was impatient in some points, but otherwise he was able to keep up with Simon at the base line. Tsonga seemed to have a pretty good match against Djokovic especially in the third set, but one thing I don't like about him is his inconsistency during a match. Against Stepanek he was horrible at the beginning and ended up with marvellous shots in the third set. Against Djokovic he had a pretty bad second set with only 47% first serves. He showed the same mental weakness against Benneteau last week where he led 5-2 in the first set and still lost the set and eventually the match. Tsonga in top form during the w-h-o-l-e match would provide much value at the current odds, but that has not been the case the last matches, so I'm going with the sharpest Roddick I've seen for months.
And a value pick:
Davydenko at +220 or more:
Davydenko's match was probably the most surprising match in concern of the result. The Russian owned Berdych in every part of the game. Berdych played an unbelievable bad match, but it wasn't like Davydenko only waited for Berdych to make errors. He was very aggressive at the base line, rushed Berdych from one corner to the other, gave him very few chances to unload the big forehand and hit some beautiful winners. In addition he didn't make too many unforced errors, though he missed some easy points at the end of the match, but that might have just been due to lack of concentration. Nadal's result would conclude that he had an easy match against Monfils, but if one would look at the conversion of Monfils' breakpoints, it would characterise the match. Monfils' was aggressive with his base line game, forced Nadal to make errors...till he got the breakpoints. Then he just stopped to attack Nadal and was way too passive. Nadal was forced to save two 0-40 at his service game, two chances Davydenko wouldn't miss, if he plays at his (nearly) best. I think Davydenko's chances are bigger than the current line suggests, IF he can repeat today's performance. That's probably the biggest question mark, Davydenko didn't play particularly well till his last match. Two weeks ago he lost to Ginepri with a bad performance hitting too many errors and one week before that he did the same against Safin. But I'm giving Davydenko a chance, the match in Miami earlier this year, where they met on hard and Nadal was beaten in straight, shows what Davydenko can do, if he is in top form.
And I'm going with Murray at -200, just don't know, if I should parlay it or play it single.Last edited by meganie; 10-30-08, 09:21 PM.Comment -
My own opinion as always, never play anything above about -165 to -170 on a single play. Very real chance Nalbandian could win and I'd rather lose a smaller amount on a parlay than a big one on a single play.Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 10-31-08, 02:13 AM.Comment
