Paris/Quebec City: Week of Oct.27

[EaglesPhan36]

Guys in Paris. Girls in Quebec. That's a lot of f-ing French. Let's get some winners!

MONDAY

Karlovic +100(Kiefer)
The big serving Croat may have needed his loss on this surface last week in Lyon to get him better prepared for this week. Listen, we all know how it goes for Karlovic. Lots of aces, no returns. Tie breaks. Break out the Tums and hope he doesn't actually get broken. Kiefer has had just two matches back since retiring from the US Open and he's looked a shadow of the player who played well late in the hard court season in the summer. He faced Gulbis in Madrid and lost in three & did the same against Blake last week. His fitness might still be questionable and he's allowed for just enough breaks in matches to get behind. Neither has been successful at this tournament with Kiefer at 0-4 and Karlovic at 1-4, although Ivo did get that win last year over Verdasco. Karlovic will need to pad his 2nd serve winners when he's not stroking those 1st serve aces, but I think he gets by here. Might take 3 sets.

Querrey -110(Baghdatis)
Take the questionable health of Baghdatis and put it up against the massive serve of Sam Querrey and there's not much to like for the Cypriot. Baghdatis is fighting a back injury that forced him out of Metz a couple weeks ago & then he came back and lost to Granollers-Pujol in Switzerland last week - seeming thankful just to complete a match. Querrey meanwhile hasn't exactly been burning it up, losing in the 1st round in his last two tournaments. Both were against capable players in Ferrero & Delic though and his serve wasn't quite dominant. Even if his serve isn't popping a ton of aces, it seems like asking Baghdatis to find some magic isn't a wise prediction here. At full health, Baghdatis is a beast on this surface - at anything less, he can be beaten.

Looking around at some others, but those are my two favorites tomorrow.

[EaglesPhan36]

Also leaning toward Tipsarevic at +110 over Lopez. Lopez has had a great run on the indoor hard courts but he's not as as strong on the carpeted surface (12-17). Tipsarevic played Murray about as well as anyone perhaps in the last month when they met in St.Petersburg, losing 7-6, 7-5.

[WannabeWilly]

EaglesPhan36, I've been reading this board for a few months now to gather info for the small stuff I play. Just wanted to say thanks for sharing your insights on tennis. I often follow your leads!

[EaglesPhan36]

Well 0 for 1 with Karlovic losing. Querrey and Baghdatis in the 3rd set. Hopefully Querrey wears him down.

[EaglesPhan36]

Baghdatis quit. Always a possibility with him late here in the season. Sucks, Querrey had just broken to go up 3-2 in the 3rd & probably had this one. Oh well, no win, no loss.

[EaglesPhan36]

Son of a bitch. Forgot Rule #1 after last week.

FADE SAFIN!

SOB is losing 3-0 to Juan Monaco in the first. I didn't make the play on Monaco because Safin is something like 19-2 at this tournament. Shit. Maybe he wakes up, but damn +155 is nice.

[Boner_18]

Yeah, I was gonna drop a little on Monaco, b/c Safin is such a headcase. To late.

[meganie]

Wasn't able to post it earlier, no time for write-up today:
Bolelli +123
Lopez -140
Andreev -142
Schüttler +180

Cilic/Söderling -174
Kiefer +107
Sorry to post them ex-post, posted it in my spreadsheet earlier, so I really played them (not that somebody think, I picked them after the matches).

Sorry for your Querrey pick.

And with this match Safin will remain on my blacklist forever.

[EaglesPhan36]

Good luck Meg. Great price on Schuettler although I don't like him today. Waited for people to buy Schuettler down & took Ancic -160. You know what they say, one of us will win.

[meganie]

Good luck Meg. Great price on Schuettler although I don't like him today. Waited for people to buy Schuettler down & took Ancic -160. You know what they say, one of us will win.

GL, if Bolelli wins, and one of the last three matches hits, I'm on the plus side, so a victory of Ancic wouldn't hurt me. Schüttler is more like a value pick.

[EaglesPhan36]

Damn I am kicking myself on Monaco now. He f-ing bageled Safin & is already up a break in the 2nd. What a loser.

[meganie]

Well, I got my value for it, Schüttler fought nearly 2 hours against a loss and you got your win. Not too bad.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah. Ancic's serve fell apart in the 2nd. Joining you on Andreev. That looks solid.

[EaglesPhan36]

EZ $$ on Andreev as he wins in straights. Lopez vs. Tipsarevic to finish off the day. Took Tipso at +125 in the end.

[EaglesPhan36]

Broke about even for the day with Tipsarevic falling in straights. Blah. Querrey one could have put me up if Baghdatis would have just sucked it up and lost instead of retiring.

[EaglesPhan36]

I don't like much on Tuesday for the prices I see. These are the two I like the best.

Troicki -140(Ljubicic)
**Much higher than this price & I would pass**
Along the lines of Marcos Baghdatis, when healthy, Ivan Ljubicic would be a potential dark horse on this surface. Current form however says he doesn't have much in the tank. Since returning from a back injury in July, he's just 3-4 and two of those wins came in qualifying this week. Before you get too excited there, those were two three set matches against inferior competition in Gullermo Canas & a local from France ranked in the 200s. His serve is still his greatest weapon as evidenced with 24 aces in a three set loss to Josselyn Ouanna at Lyon. His main problem is a lack of return which is what catches up with him when his serve doesn't dominate enough. Troicki meanwhile is finishing a decent end to his 2008 campaign. He made the quarters in Tokyo & Madrid before drawing unlucky with Andy Murray in a Round 1 loss in St.Petersburg last week. Troicki went through qualis here in Paris as well with much more ease than his opponent & his own serve sizzled against Rochus for 14 aces. His 2nd serve percentage and winners needs to go up a notch against Ivan, but overall he seems to have youth on his side with a little better return game at this stage of the season.

Robredo +105(Verdasco)
Robredo worked hard to beat an in-form Chardy in a match on Sunday here in Paris and that should have him acclimated to the surface. His 1st serve has been fairly solid recently, his 2nd serve is what needs the consistency to win. Against Benneteau in France, he won just 25% of his 2nd serves. That number will need to double to remain competitive here. The Spaniard has seemed more comfortable in Paris the last few years, making the quarters or further in 3 straight trips. On the other side, Verdasco is anything but comfortable here. He's failed to get out of the 1st Round in 3 of 4 tries here and didn't make it through qualifying in the other try. This will be his first match on the surface since Paris last year which should also give Robredo an edge. Verdasco had a nice run in St.Petersburg last week, but that was a different surface and a tourney he had faired well at during his career. Better price for a guy with a match under his belt already seems like a more solid option here with Robredo.

[meganie]

Thought about playing Troicki since Ljubicic even had problems beating Canas. The reason why I didn't was simply the stats of his qualifying match against O. Rochus. He lost more than 40% of points on service games. That's just horrendous for a guy with a serve like his. He also gave up 11 breakpoints. And Rochus had just 46% first serves and still only lost with two breaks. This performance doesn't sound good. And Ljubicic seems to be getting better slowly. His performance against Ouanna wasn't impressive, but it wasn't terrible either. He had some decent ground strokes and should've won this match in straight. His biggest issue were his defending shots, when Ouanna created some pressure, Ljubicic hit too many pretty simple balls off the target.

Concerning your other match, I was actually thinking about Verdasco at even. Robredo made a bad impression to me against Benneteau, while Verdasco had a pretty nice week in St. Petersburg. But Verdasco didn't impress me on hard this season and carpet is about the same speed I guess. Both don't have too good records on this surface, Robredo has the advantage in h2h, but their last meeting was more than two years ago. It sounds to me like a 50/50 match and I can't find an edge on either side.

Still wish you good luck on them.

So far no single plays for me, just two parlays:
Murray/Nalbandian at -217
Murray 2-0/Monfils at -143 -> Monaco beat Safin, true, but Safin played terrible. Somebody must had told him not to hit the marked area on the other side of the net...

Looking for the line of the Lopez-Roddick-match to come out. This could be a huge value bet on Lopez at over ~+160, expecting a close match with (nearly) no breaks and a couple of tie breakers. And Lopez showed at the last few matches that he can handle those.

[meganie]

Placed one on Lopez at +190. Quite nice.

[EaglesPhan36]

Good value & the only way to play that one at the price, but I think Roddick is going to win. He needs to do well here to keep himself in line for Shanghai & he's not bad on carpet. Will probably be at least one tie break if not two like the Soderling match last week. Only difference is I think Lopez is a weaker returner compared to Soderling. I'll root for ya though since I have no interest and Lopez has been a cash cow for me the last couple weeks at + money.

If Youzhny had any form, I'd take him at the price +165 over Kohlschreiber, but can't trust him for shit here.

[EaglesPhan36]

Blah. Trioicki sucked. 2nd serve did not improve and that did him in. Shitty week so far.

[EaglesPhan36]

Groenefeld -125(Dechy)
One for the ladies side. This match will probably be brutal as both have troubles with double faults at times. The winner likely is the one who does the consistent job on serve and avoids those pesky doubles. Groenefeld has enjoyed a solid year with her surprising US Open run & a good deal of success on clay earlier in the year. Dechy meanwhile had a couple blips on the radar, one in Cincinnati where she made a final on an outdoor hard surface & then on carpet a few weeks back in a lower tier event. Dechy does have a better record on the indoor surface, but Groenefeld has seemingly begun to advance on this surface in 2008 with a modest 3-3 record. Experience can only help her. Gonna side with the girl who possesses the better game & hope that it shows up today.

[EaglesPhan36]

I should just quit this week. Got no vibe whatsoever.

[meganie]

Just bad luck, it's gonna be better.

Ljubicic seems to be playing better, match vs. Davydenko will be interesting.

Did you find a site with stats for the WTA tournament? Will probably sit out, if I can't find any stats on the matches.

[meganie]

Good value & the only way to play that one at the price, but I think Roddick is going to win. He needs to do well here to keep himself in line for Shanghai & he's not bad on carpet. Will probably be at least one tie break if not two like the Soderling match last week. Only difference is I think Lopez is a weaker returner compared to Soderling. I'll root for ya though since I have no interest and Lopez has been a cash cow for me the last couple weeks at + money.

Yeah, but Söderling didn't manage to break Roddick once, so he could be returning like Karlovic and it still wouldn't matter. Roddick has probably the advantage in the tie break since his serve is better and he needs to win for Shanghai, but winning a tie break is always a bit lucky, no matter how weak your opponent is. I try my luck and hope for the best.

[EaglesPhan36]

Just bad luck, it's gonna be better.

Ljubicic seems to be playing better, match vs. Davydenko will be interesting.

Did you find a site with stats for the WTA tournament? Will probably sit out, if I can't find any stats on the matches.

tennisinsight.com always has stats

[meganie]

tennisinsight.com always has stats

No stats so far for the women's tournament.

Well, we saw why Roddick is in the Top 10 and Lopez isn't. You could think that a different Lopez played against Tipsarevic. Terrible at the net, hardly good serves, no game plan. Pathetic performance so far.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

One for tomorrow: Kohlschreiber to beat Ferrer, I got evens earlier at betfair. Simple logic behind it, in that Ferrer couldn't beat a pensioner at the moment, let alone a player in decent form. There's also their last match, which Kohli won 6-1 6-0 (and that was back when Ferrer was in form).

Always a chance this is when Ferrer turns it around, but he's been horrendous for so long now. Might as well keep betting for him to lose.

[EaglesPhan36]

No stats so far for the women's tournament.

Well, we saw why Roddick is in the Top 10 and Lopez isn't. You could think that a different Lopez played against Tipsarevic. Terrible at the net, hardly good serves, no game plan. Pathetic performance so far.

Oh sorry. You meant like live scores? I was looking at flashscore.com for the women's ones. They're not in-depth like the WTA/ATP live ones - but at least you know what the score is.

Maybe I'll just saying who I think is going to lose instead of picking winners. I've done better at that this week.

[meganie]

Just one match I really like for tomorrow, Tsonga at -164. Was surprised to see the opening line that high for Tsonga. Stepanek didn't play well today, he had flashes of brilliance, especially in the first set, but seemed to be unfocused at some parts, had some easy volleys in the second and third set and hit them untypically to the out. His serve also was not very good, especially in the third it was simply terrible and very hitable. He showed some mental weakness, he was up 3-0 in the third and lost the advantage with a bad service game. Gicquel was about to win at 4-4 at Stepanek's serve and with breakpoint. He got a bad call and was very upset about it, I think after that call he only made one point and eventually lost his own serve with some very easy errors. My conclusion is that Stepanek was very lucky today, he also lost to Darcis in Lyon, while Tsonga had a pretty decent tournament there.

Oh sorry. You meant like live scores? I was looking at flashscore.com for the women's ones. They're not in-depth like the WTA/ATP live ones - but at least you know what the score is.

No, I was looking for stats, serve %, etc of a match, so that I can judge the performance. Unfortunately this tournament seems to have no electronic support, even some live scores were wrong. But after these crazy results, I will stay away from it.

Maybe I'll just saying who I think is going to lose instead of picking winners. I've done better at that this week.

No need for frustration, you just had two not so good days, it's gonna be better tomorrow for sure.

One for tomorrow: Kohlschreiber to beat Ferrer, I got evens earlier at betfair. Simple logic behind it, in that Ferrer couldn't beat a pensioner at the moment, let alone a player in decent form. There's also their last match, which Kohli won 6-1 6-0 (and that was back when Ferrer was in form).

Always a chance this is when Ferrer turns it around, but he's been horrendous for so long now. Might as well keep betting for him to lose.

You got a nice line.
Though I don't like it at the current line (-131). Ferrer needs points for Shanghai and surely wants to play in Davis Cup. But you got a good value with this one.

[EaglesPhan36]

Bolelli +150(Blake)
Simply fading James Blake at another horrible price. He's had ample opportunity to step up in the race for Shanghai, but he keeps failing. I don't understand how bookies can continue to provide lines of -150 or more for him at this point. Bolelli has three matches already on the surface through qualifying and beating Niemenen in Round 1. Beating Berdych last week on a faster surface in Switzerland cements this play for me as Blake on a slower carpeted surface can't be expected at this stage to be any better than Berdych. If Bolelli brings his A serve and plays as solidly as he has in the past week plus, he can take this.

Andreev +140(Simon)
Value play in what is essentially an even match. Andreev had Simon on the ropes a couple weeks back in Madrid. The + money says he learned a little something there and might be able to finish the job this time instead of squandering several set & match points.

Parlay: Cilic/Nalbandian

[Chad Hamilton]

Hey guys good luck tomorrow...just wanted to get some feedback on these plays as I really like them all...

Kohlschreiber -140 over Ferrer

Ljubicic +180 over Davydenko

Simon -170 over Andreev

Tsonga -190 over Stepanek

Berdych -225 over Wawrinka

Juice is kind of high in a few so might link them up in parlays but really like Simon and Tsogna playing in their home country...also Berdych 2-0 lifetime on carpet against Wawrinka including 5 straight sets won on this typ of surface against him...thanks in advance for your input fellas and GL tomorrow....

[Chad Hamilton]

ON second that not gonna play Simon because you are against him Eagles and also I agree he should have beat him last time....also I feel the line seems a little low and fishy..good luck!!!

[EaglesPhan36]

I don't know what to think of that Kohlschreiber/Ferrer match. Something tells me to steer clear even though it screams Kohlschreiber.

[Boner_18]

On Wawrinka +160
Bolelli +150

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Just watching the Simon-Andreev match, and Simon is very, very impressive. He's completely masterful, controlling the points, moving Andreev around like a puppet on a string.

There may be some nice value betting on him this week. Roddick next probably, then Djoko or Tsonga.


Edit: lol, timing. Straight after winning first set Simon completely collapses. Now 4-0 down in the second, with Andreev to serve. I wonder if he's hit an energy wall, after playing all those ultra draining multiple tiebreak matches last week.