Balls to the Wall: Week of Oct.20

[EaglesPhan36]

That 1st set tie break gave me an ucler. Lopez got broken first, but then broken back and then back and forth till Fish gave it up.

Did you play the Lapentti/Ouanna match? Noticed it's in the 3rd.

[EaglesPhan36]

Of course this could be a coming out party for Ouanna that I'm late on too?!

Looks like I'm late. Hope you didn't let me sway you.

[meganie]

Looks like I'm late. Hope you didn't let me sway you.

I backed up Ouanna with a very tiny amount before the match, but made some nice earnings with live betting. But I can tell you, my finger nails are nearly all off, the guy is way too inconsistent.

[EaglesPhan36]

Nice win though. Glad I layed off Schwank. I was with you when you said the price made it unplayable - thank goodness! He got smoked. Ah well. See ya for more tomorrow.

[meganie]

Nice win though. Glad I layed off Schwank. I was with you when you said the price made it unplayable - thank goodness! He got smoked. Ah well. See ya for more tomorrow.

Yeah, Schwank was a huge disappointment.

My picks for tomorrow:
Pennetta at -175
Bolelli at -133

with less amount:
Seppi at +225
Murray 2-1 at +300 and Gulbis 2-1 at +650

questionable:
Ferrero at -111 -> will perhaps pull the trigger at even
Srebotnik at +150
Chardy at +137

parlay:
Roddick/Zvonareva at -250

[EaglesPhan36]

THURSDAY

Bolelli -140(Granollers-Pujol)
Quick note much like the Petzschner play yesterday, if this one rises much more to -145 or more - would not recommend it outside of using in a parlay. Bolleli got a big win against Berdych in the opener, pounding Berdych's second serve for 70% + of the points. He also kept his own serve rolling nicely, winning 90% of the points off his first serve. Granollers-Pujol beat a down-trodden Marcos Baghdatis who is not in great shape here at the end of the year and GP isn't exactly at home on this surface with a 6-7 record all-time on indoor hard courts. If Bolleli can avoid a letdown after the big win (always a distinct possibility) - I believe he pushes through although it may take 3 sets.

Don't see a whole lot else, but a couple longer shots might be worth small plays:

Kukishkin +210(Hanescu)
The Russian beat a similar player (Big serve/big hitter) in scoring the upset over Cilic in Round 1. Shouldn't be a let down so much playing in his home country and Hanescu despite a nice week in Madrid is still not a great hard court player.

Zverev +185(Youzhny)
Zverev played well in Moscow last week before pulling out due to an illness. Both players scored easy wins in Round 1, but Youzhny still hasn't played well in the last couple weeks losing to beatable players. Worth a shot perhaps.

Cibulkova +164(Pennetta)
Might be a sucker bet, but there's definitely not as much separating these two talent wise that the price would lead you to believe. Pennetta has had a great run here late in the season, but Cibulkova is fully capable of a win here. Serving wins or loses this match as both have bouts of the double faultsies & troubles at times with 1st/2nd serves. But hell Cibulkova beat Ana Ivanovic a couple weeks back with no aces and nine doubles, so why not beat Pennetta? I say the one with the better second serve %/points won will win.

[Chad Hamilton]

Hey EaglesPhan36 I just wanted to let you know that I am a lurker of your threads on a regular basis and just wanted to say thanks for all the tennis winners. You are solid bro and just giving a shootout out of the shadows to let you know that your tennis picks are not going un noticed and thanks for posting. Please keep them coming!!!!!!!!!!!

[meganie]

Glad that I didn't play Chardy thanks to you.

Bolelli was the easiest win with this value for weeks.

[EaglesPhan36]

Hey EaglesPhan36 I just wanted to let you know that I am a lurker of your threads on a regular basis and just wanted to say thanks for all the tennis winners. You are solid bro and just giving a shootout out of the shadows to let you know that your tennis picks are not going un noticed and thanks for posting. Please keep them coming!!!!!!!!!!!

Thanks. We got a good little group of guys in here. Meganie is very good and some of the others who visit here also have good picks, so it's a nice place to exchange info.

Bolleli was nice. Hoping Murray can pick me up to cash a parlay with him as well. Also decided after looking that Petrova was a good parlay possibility and paired her with Murray as well.

[EaglesPhan36]

Damn. Appears the Fade Safin betting should be back in effect. Schmuck lost to Golubev in straight sets and it wasn't close.

[SBR Lou]

Thanks. We got a good little group of guys in here. Meganie is very good and some of the others who visit here also have good picks, so it's a nice place to exchange info.

Why wasn't my name mentioned? The guy that pushed for this forum for you all.

[EaglesPhan36]

You hardly post here any more bro! What's up with that? You gun shy on picks on the hard courts?

Murray wins easily over Gulbis in straights. Not sure why people think Gulbis can beat top tier guys. Too nervy in his youth.

[meganie]

Murray wins easily over Gulbis in straights. Not sure why people think Gulbis can beat top tier guys. Too nervy in his youth.

You're right, but...Gulbis had his chances (4 breakpoints).

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah, but he provides more than he has chances for usually. Gave Murray 9 cracks at it today and he got 4. That's what separates the men from the boys. I hope someone teaches him not to rely solely on his serve, but to develop the return game more to go with it. His serve was flat today and he paid for it.

[meganie]

Yeah, but he provides more than he has chances for usually. Gave Murray 9 cracks at it today and he got 4. That's what separates the men from the boys. I hope someone teaches him not to rely solely on his serve, but to develop the return game more to go with it. His serve was flat today and he paid for it.

I think we can agree, that:
- he has (the) talent (to beat nearly every player on a very good day)
- he shows it once for a while
- he's got to improve his mental strength/weakness to become a top10/20 player.


My considerations for tomorrow:
- Schüttler at (+162): Every time Verdasco met a good player on hard court this season he lost. Imo way overvalued.
- Söderling (+150): It's commonly known that Roddick has problems against big servers. Söderling is that kind of player, has decent ground strokes, imo a good price.
- Benneteau (-139): The way Benneteau played in his matches against Clement and Robredo was pretty impressive. He just outplayed both of them with heavy groundstrokes. He seems to improve with every match he plays in Lyon, against Clement he made a lot more errors than against Robredo, who didn't find anything to stop Benneteau. Of course Darcis beat Stepanek and Gasquet and I don't know anything about Darcis' game, so I'd be glad to hear your opinion, Eagles.

[EaglesPhan36]

Zverev beats Youzhny, wound up a little ahead on the long shots today as I just took two with Cibulkova getting killed by Pennetta as my other one.

I think Ferrero makes sense at + money now as that one has tilted decidedly toward Mathieu. I'm taking a piece of Ferrero at +115 and think that's good value in a toss-up match.

[EaglesPhan36]

Make that +145. Uh oh. I'm a fool, so I'm in. Better not be another Llodra experience. That is a big price swing!

[meganie]

Make that +145. Uh oh. I'm a fool, so I'm in. Better not be another Llodra experience. That is a big price swing!

Where did you find these odds? My bookie is still at even. Btw, good to be on the same side.

[EaglesPhan36]

Bookmaker. I have another account at 5 Dimes and it was I think +105 maybe. I had seen the +115 this morning on Bookmaker and then seriously when I logged on before that last post, it was still at +115 and a minute later ... +145 when I went to make the bet. Bookmaker they say is used by more "pros" - so I guess that means somebody put a shitload down on Mathieu!

[meganie]

Damn. Appears the Fade Safin betting should be back in effect. Schmuck lost to Golubev in straight sets and it wasn't close.

If we'd bet against every Russian fav in Russia we'd be rich.

Youzhny x2
Safin x2
Davydenko
Kunitsyn
Kudryavtsev
Andreev
Tursunov
...
tbc 2009

Bookmaker. I have another account at 5 Dimes and it was I think +105 maybe. I had seen the +115 this morning on Bookmaker and then seriously when I logged on before that last post, it was still at +115 and a minute later ... +145 when I went to make the bet. Bookmaker they say is used by more "pros" - so I guess that means somebody put a shitload down on Mathieu!

thx

[EaglesPhan36]

Ferrero with the late break and a 6-4 win in the 1st set.

[meganie]

Ferrero just broke Mathieu in the second set for 2-1.

[EaglesPhan36]

I'd like to thank whatever dude bumped that price to +145! Extra $$$ for moi. Ferrero dominating 5-1 in the 2nd. Looks like we're cashing this sucker to end a nice day.

[meganie]

I'd like to thank whatever dude bumped that price to +145! Extra $$$ for moi. Ferrero dominating 5-1 in the 2nd. Looks like we're cashing this sucker to end a nice day.

Woohoo

Did you get to see the match? Live stream didn't work for me. Looks like Mathieu gave up on the match after he was broken. Was Ferrero also that dominant in the first set?

[EaglesPhan36]

Didn't see it - looking at match stats, first set was fairly even, but Ferrero took advantage of poor second serves from Mathieu, winning 5 of the 8 points there. Mathieu really had no answer for JCF's serve, only won 22% of the return points in Set 1 and then yeah probably gave up/hurt/ill whatever - 8% in the 2nd set.

I'll be back around later after I get to see some prices for tomorrow. Peace!

[meganie]

My considerations for tomorrow:
- Schüttler at (+162): Every time Verdasco met a good player on hard court this season he lost. Imo way overvalued.
- Söderling (+150): It's commonly known that Roddick has problems against big servers. Söderling is that kind of player, has decent ground strokes, imo a good price.
- Benneteau (-139): The way Benneteau played in his matches against Clement and Robredo was pretty impressive. He just outplayed both of them with heavy groundstrokes. He seems to improve with every match he plays in Lyon, against Clement he made a lot more errors than against Robredo, who didn't find anything to stop Benneteau. Of course Darcis beat Stepanek and Gasquet and I don't know anything about Darcis' game, so I'd be glad to hear your opinion, Eagles.

Going now with Benneteau. His performance was just too impressive to not play him, though Darcis' record on carpet is excellent. Hopefully he doesn't fall into his old slump.

So my list for tomorrow:
Söderling at +150
Schüttler at +162
Benneteau at -139

parlay:
Del Potro/Zvonareva/Murray at -141 -> Zvonareva's match seems to be the hardest one

Not sure yet:
Simon 2-1 at +333 and Ouanna at +350: Ouanna's game is probably in favor of Simon, big forehand but weaker backhand, good serve but a little bit inconsistent with it. The 2-1 is based on Simon's recent matches, nearly all three-setters.
Zverev at -175
Pennetta at +134
Andreev +4 at +110

Waiting for the Ferrero-Tsonga odds to come out.
Edit: +162 for Ferrero seems to be a nice price. Considering.

What I noticed today: Benjamin Becker looks like Chris Drury on this pic

[EaglesPhan36]

Something about the Schuettler match I don't like. Both guys have played real well at this tournament in the past, so that somewhat negates that Fade Verdasco on hard courts sentiment (which I am usually voicing as well). Defintely would rather have the + money, but I'm going to steer clear.

Likewise on the Benneteau-Darcis match for me. If anything, I'm more impressed with Darcis. I think he's comparable to a poor man's Giles Simon perhaps. He doesn't really do anything overly impressive, he just waits to see if you'll beat yourself. Remember, Darcis had James Blake in trouble at the US Open before pulling out with an injury and two big wins here vs. Stepanek & Gasquet tell me he probably won't have a letdown. Just get your Maalox out if you bet on Benneteau. I've done it some and he'll test your will!

I've got 3-4 narrowed down that I think I like, gonna go look 'em over a little more before decided on a couple.

[EaglesPhan36]

FRIDAY

Zverev -185(Golubev)
Note to self: Probably best used in a parlay at this price as I do not advise betting favorites once they get over -160ish, even though I do like this one alot. Zverev is one of those unassuming types who just plays steady and lets his opponents come crashing down around him while he picks up the pieces. Youzhny was the latest victim as Zverev took advantage of Youzhny's weak service game, winning 45% of the points off his opponent's serve. Zverev remained consistent on his own serve, hitting for over 60% of the points in both 1st & 2nd serve. In case you haven't noticed, Zverev has had a solid run the last two weeks in Moscow and now St.Petersburg. Golubev is capable as evidenced by taking care of mental midget Safin yesterday. He won 89% of the points off his first serve which has been solid this week. The feeling I get here though is that Golubev is great when things go his way, but how will he respond to adversity when someone like Zverev doesn't crack under the pressure? If Golubev gets an unbelievable 1st serve & remains consistent, he surely can pull off another upset. I think though that Zverev's steadying play is a bit better and will continue for another deserving win.

Petrova -150(Radwanska)
Right on the cusp of the price you'd want to consider maybe only using this in a parlay - perhaps with Zverev if you like both. Both these players can be totally unnerving to watch. But when they're at their best, they can beat anyone. Petrova seems at home at this tournament as she's made the final here in 3 of 4 tries. She also beat Radwanska for the first time in 3 tries in September in Tokyo in impressive fashion: 6-3, 6-0. If you look at the head-2-head battle, you'll notice the Achilles Heel of both reared its head in the losses. Serving. That is the big key here as I expect the one who can capitalize on more 2nd serve opportunities and keep from hitting the double fault merry-go-round to advance. For me, that is Petrova with her immense comfort on this court (14-3) here for her career.

F.Lopez +115(Blake)
How they continue to undervalue Feliciano Lopez is unreal to me, but I'll take advantage. F-Lo has been a killer the last 3 weeks. Semis in Vienna. Quarters in Madrid and now a shot for the semis here with a win. He won't be intimidated by Blake's rediscovered serve (17 aces yesterday) as he just faced arguably a more dominant server in Fish and survived that match in straight sets. Lopez' own serve has been humming with 31 aces in two matches. Blake still seems to be looking for his full game to return as he's had a solid serve here in Switzerland, but still wound up fighting through 3 sets in each match. I'm expecting a similar match to Lopez-Fish with very few breaks of serve and probably at least one tie breaker in this. I'll again though side with the better price of the more in-form player as long as they want to serve that up!

Those are the ones I like best. Also think there is value found:

Soderling +120 - +130(Roddick)
This will be another one where breaks of serve are few and far between. Roddick relies so much on that serve as we know that if his opponent can keep his own serve right - Soderling has this week - and let's A-Rod beat himself, there's a real shot. Great value for probably a better all-around player in the Swiss and a guy with a better rep on the carpeted surface.

If I can't talk myself into taking Zverev or Petrova at the prices, I definitely will parlay those two. Also think as Meganie mentioned above - Del Potro & Murray would be a good one too, although less of a return due to the odds.

[meganie]

Likewise on the Benneteau-Darcis match for me. If anything, I'm more impressed with Darcis. I think he's comparable to a poor man's Giles Simon perhaps. He doesn't really do anything overly impressive, he just waits to see if you'll beat yourself. Remember, Darcis had James Blake in trouble at the US Open before pulling out with an injury and two big wins here vs. Stepanek & Gasquet tell me he probably won't have a letdown. Just get your Maalox out if you bet on Benneteau. I've done it some and he'll test your will!

Too bad I played it earlier on, now I have to stick with it. But you mentioned Simon, so I looked up the h2h between the two and the funny thing is Benneteau beat Simon last year at the same tournament. To be fair it was Simon's first tournament after three weeks, so he obviously suffered from an injury. Geez, you made me nervous as hell. (I can see another Andreev-Simon game)


Wow, didn't notice that Söderling's odds dropped that much. Glad I got him earlier at a better price. Btw, Söderling is a Swede not Swiss

You convinced me of Lopez, I mean I layed him that often, there must me a time, where I can get some money back with him.

[EaglesPhan36]

Thanks for the correction. Too much writing and drinking.


I hope at worst that Lopez or Soderling will win, both would be awesome.

[EaglesPhan36]

So I'm cashing in a $200 free play at Bookmaker for tomorrow/this weekend. I can divide it up in any form or fasion I choose.

So many possibilities. Soderling or Lopez, just itching for half that perhaps on each or on one.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well Petrova ****ed my parlay up already. She didn't even bother to wake up today. Guess this is what I get for a double Russian parlay. At least Soderling is playing well and up a set. Gonna need Lopez to make back what I lost on the parlay.

[EaglesPhan36]

Soderling 7-6, 7-6

[meganie]

Schüttler wasn't a good bet either. At least Söderling was solid.

Played a couple of futures: Del Potro at +450 for Basel and Murray at -175 for St. Petersburg.

[EaglesPhan36]

That Del Potro one looks nice! Federer doesn't seem to care how the year ends. DP beat Nalbandian last week convincingly. Can't really argue with the Murray one. Under -200 is solid with what is left in that tourney.

Yeah there was something about that Schuettler one that I just didn't like which is why I stayed away. Are you on Lopez?