Balls to the Wall: Week of Oct.20

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-20-08, 08:46 AM

Korolev got drilled in straights. Tursonov got beat again! Man is that guy sliding, losing to Hrbaty badly.

**meganie** · 10-20-08, 09:03 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Tursonov got beat again! Man is that guy sliding, losing to Hrbaty badly.

Probably still his shoulder injury. His serve looked very slow against Hanescu.

I avoided the Melzer one, but I played Llodra.

What I also liked was Kunitsyn at -150, but his price dropped to -225. Backed him up at -175.

Edit: And also backed up Ferrero at -150.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-20-08, 09:37 AM

Well someone is gonna win brother because I decided to take a shot at Schuettler now that he is +160 for me. Kunitsyn had the big win in Moscow, but I don't know this one kind of smells funny to me. Then again all matches with Russians smell funny now-a-days, right?

I just think Kunitsyn is really over-valued at the price now - the -150 might have been worth it, but I don't seem him being a -200 or more against anyone personally. Schuettler's biggest problems come against players with bigger serves. Kunitsyn seems more the efficient serve type and not the over-powering aces type.

Melzer is my favorite wager of the day personally. Maybe it's another one where I'm just going against the Russians!

**meganie** · 10-20-08, 09:48 AM

Yeah, GL to you.

My reason for Kunitsyn is what I saw from Schüttler against Berdych. Maybe he just lost his motivation after a bad start but he didn't do anything to avoid the loss. Error after error, even on his service games, hardly any good shots, it's like he practically gave Berdych the match. On the other hand Berdych has a very good serve and a very different playing style. Would probably also go with Schüttler at the current price, but still got the feeling that Kunitsyn can force Schüttler to make many errors.

And my reason for not backing up Melzer is basically his loss against Lopez. How can you lose against somebody like Lopez, when you beat Ferrero and Ljubicic in the previous rounds? Also think that Andreev is still a good player, so it's 50/50 for me.

**meganie** · 10-20-08, 11:33 AM

Eagles, someone at TI said that the price for Robredo dropped a lot and I looked it up at my bookie and the odds for Llodra are now at +300.

Strange thing.

Ok, now that's very strange: After the odds moved, it moved even more, Llodra was at +350. I mean, if his odds rose that much, you would guess that people would want to place a value bet on Llodra so that the odds would move the other way, but no, Llodra's odds rises even more. Either he is injured or we could really speak about a fixed match...

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-20-08, 12:12 PM

Wow something is up there you would think to more than double the odds. I didn't get to see the price where I placed mine before it went off. Guess we're about to see what's happening. That sorta movement I would think would mean someone or many people placed an ass load on Robredo?

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-20-08, 01:12 PM

Well I guess if you believe in match fixing, the talk was this one was. Robredo wins in straights with Llodra apparently doing just enough to get broken a few times. Didn't see it myself, but those tennisinsight guys (for whatever it's worth because alot of them seem full of it) were screaming that this was fixed.

**meganie** · 10-20-08, 01:18 PM

Things I noticed while watching:
In every game Robredo broke him, he made easy mistakes. I think in every of these two games he had one double faults. And also made easy base line errors. On the last game where Robredo broke him he had an easy volley shot at the net and...put the shot into the net. Also at the last match point he made a shot to the out. He had several chances at 15-30 or 0-30 and nearly every time he made an easy error.
Didn't seem to much concerned about the match. I don't know how he usually acts at a match, but he was pretty relaxed, smiled a few times...
Usually I wouldn't notice these things, just today they seem to be quite weird.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-20-08, 01:23 PM

Well that sucks. That's what I get for betting on a match the night before, normally I wait until just a little bit before the match to go in and if I had known this sort of stuff, definitely would have just gone to a no play. If he did fix this, I hope the ATP burns him.

**meganie** · 10-20-08, 01:30 PM

Of course there's also the chance that he was really injured. Eagles do you remember how the odds moved, when they found out that Nishikori was injured before his match against Hrbaty?
It's just weird, that the odds moved that much, I think right before the start of the match odds were about -600/+400. I mean even with injury Llodra's odds should be a lot worse, it's not like he's ranked about 100 or so.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-20-08, 01:42 PM

Yeah I see some guys over at TI also claiming that might have been the case today that bookies found out about an injury right before the match. Even so, that to me is at best tampering then because he could easily have withdrawn if he wasn't match fit, but instead plays hurt and who knows how many people made tons of money of that info.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-20-08, 04:07 PM

Melzer loses two tough sets 7-6, 7-5. Meh. Not a fun day although with Schuettler hitting, I only wound up losing about $20 total today.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-20-08, 05:08 PM

It's really amazing to know that someone probably made an assload of money by learning this right before the match.

Error 404 (Not Found)!!1

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hLM8CebF5I0jBhONKSCxjgILthtQD93UFP4G0

Robredo defeated Michael Llodra of France 6-4, 6-3. Llodra said he was worn out and might miss the rest of the season because of pain behind his right knee.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-20-08, 10:08 PM

Not a big fan of the Tuesday prices. Good day probably to pick a couple bigger faves to parlay. Ones I like:

Ancic, Berdych, Kohlschreiber

Best single play with value I think is Makarova +110 over Bodarenko, but not a big edge there.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-21-08, 09:38 AM

Lots of upsets this morning. Berdych, Cilic, Ancic all losing. Was definitely a good morning to pass on. I did find one though that I am going to play today.

ATP - St.Petersburg

Zverev -175(Serra)
Zverev leads the head-2-head between these two, 2-1 and won the last encounter in straight sets back in August on the outdoor hard court in New Haven. Zverev since switching to the indoor hard stuff late in the season has been on a nice roll. He progressed to the semis in Moscow, but had to withdraw with an illness. Along the way, he took out Troicki & Gabashvilli, both of whom are better than Serra on this surface. This week, Zverev has rolled through the qualis as his serve has continued to be solid as it was in Moscow. Serra meanwhile has gotten some indoor hard court seasoning with trips to the qualis in Metz & Madrid plus a first round exit to Davydenko in Moscow. He's just 29-30 all-time on this surface and has only won a single match in the main draw of an indoor hard court tourney in 2008. Zverev meanwhile is 42-21 on this surface and has beaten Ferrer, Kohlschreiber and Troicki this year on this surface. I expect Serra should put up a fight, but I like Zverev to get by in a couple tight sets by verge of his match experience on this surface in the qualis and better over-all form on the surface.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-21-08, 10:40 AM

I noticed something else weird in the betting for tennis. Nadia Petrova was a -400 favorite in her match this morning, but her opponent was just +200 on the ML at one of my books. That is way off. Perova dropped the 1st set. We'll see what happens.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-21-08, 02:29 PM

Zverev was an easy winner in straights.

Petrova wound up winning in three, so no conspiracy theory there for me.

**meganie** · 10-21-08, 06:33 PM

I think I spent 15 minutes to write my reason for picking Schwank and than...this site went down.

And I considered to pick Zverev, but wasn't sure enough and I didn't get to see your write-up till right now. Too bad.

I really like Schwank at +110 for tomorrow, probably wouldn't pick him at the current price of -110. Schwank is a little inconsistent but I don't count Nieminen's victorys in the last few weeks very high. In Stockholm he had a draw that was easy as hell and in Madrid he won against Youzhny who just lost a week ago against Gabashvili.

Also some tiny picks:
Kiefer (+125) over Blake: I picked Kiefer the last time he played against Gulbis and he lost very close. His serve seems to be working pretty well. An in-form Blake is probably too strong for him, but you know, with Blake you never know, maybe he just plays like he was playing Simon in the second and third set with no brain just looking for the big winners. If he does that Kiefer should have a decent chance. Kiefer also won their last meeting pretty clear, so I give it a shot.

Kanepi (+200) over Radwanska: Kanepi had a pretty decent tournament in Tokyo and just lost the final close. This was mostly her own fault, because she simply made too many errors. Every time she managed to get her power shots through, Wozniacki ran from one corner to the other. The problem was, too many shots didn't get to the target. Nevertheless she could be a value bet, because Radwanska doesn't seem to be in good form. In her last two tournaments she didn't make it over the second round and the tournament before she lost to Jie Zheng. So my point is, every time she met a (very) good player she failed. A back up pick would be Radwanska in 2-1 as I don't see her winning in straight.

I also picked Fish (-120) over Lopez, but only veeery tiny, I think Fish's serve is a little bit better than Lopez', his base line game is imo also better and Lopez will be forced to make less slices with his backhand than he usually does with Fish likely going to the net. So Lopez will probably make more errors than he usually does.

I'm considering Andreev over Kohlschreiber, if the line moves (over) even. The current price of -120 is a no-go. Kohlschreiber's performance at Vienna impressed me, but his last two matches don't make too good impressions to me. Against Wawrinka he should've won the second set, but didn't. In the end of the third set he looked very tired and made some easy mistakes, maybe his fitness isn't 100%. In the match today he broke Gremelmayr early in the first and in the second set, but immediately got the rebreak, which is a bit weird considering his class. Andreev seems to find his form again. Ok, due to the stats sheet Melzer could've probably won, if he converted his breakpoints, but Andreev's 65% win percentage on second serve impresses me. Probably a 50/50 match, after I wrote that, I'm not too sure about picking Andreev...

Christophe Rochus also should be a consideration, Muller had an injury recently and lost his last match on hard court against Canas.

I'm going to make a parlay with Schüttler and ? . Can't find any other matches that really I like much, maybe Olivier Rochus or Robredo.

**meganie** · 10-21-08, 06:53 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

It's really amazing to know that someone probably made an assload of money by learning this right before the match.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5h...LthtQD93UFP4G0

The strange thing is that he played doubles today. We'll see, if he plays the next round.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-21-08, 08:45 PM

WED - ATP Davidoff Swiss Indoors

Petzschner -145(Vliegen)
A note to start it off. Any higher than maybe -160 on this and I would not play it as a single match. Vliegen cruised through the qualifiers here, so he's got some court experience and did win a lesser tourney on the indoor hard court in France back in September. His serve isn't overpowering per say, but it does produce alot of points. Petzschner comes here off the tourney win in Vienna, having KO'ed stalwarts Moya, F.Lopez & Monfils in succession, not to mention Wawrinka. Both players have solid indoor records, but Petzschner's have come against quality competition while Vliegen's have come against mostly inferior players who play more Challenger Series than ATP. Petschner's not overly-flashy. His serve is solid & gets him points and his return game was solid in Austria all tournament. If he's anywhere close to that level here, it should be good enough to win this match.

Davidoff Swiss Indoors

F.Lopez +100(Fish)
I find it hard to go against Lopez win his current form here. Making the semis in Vienna and the quarters in Madrid, he's on a bit of a roll. Lopez was pushed more than expected in his opener here, but his serve was humming with 15 aces and winning 80% of his points on 1st serve. Fish meanwhile struggling percentage wise, getting just 35% of his first serves in play. Fish has been the better indoor hard court player between the two over their careers until 2008. Fish hasn't made it past the 2nd round in 2 of 3 indoor hard court tourneys this year (Note losses to Roddick & Gasquet) while Lopez has won 7 of his last 10 on the surface after a forgettable early portion of 2008. This is really a coin flip if Fish's serve is working as both players will have trouble getting breaks without the other's help on serve. I expect at least one 7-6 or 7-5 set in this one. Should be fun, but I side with the slightly better price and momentum of the Spaniard.

Value Picks

Kanepi +185(Radwanska)
With Meganie on this one. Kanepi had a great September in the Far East, aking the quarters, semis and finals in successive tournaments. She's got a 45-23 record on the surface and that isn't all against nobodies. Kanepi has battled injuries & other issues off & on for years, but possesses immense talent. The 1st round match here was her first on the surface and she'll need to straighten up her serve. 6 double faults could be deadly against most opponents and that is definitely an Achilles heel for her. Radwanska has the talent to make short work of Kanepi, but she's struggled to find her game late in the season. The price is too good to pass up here on a name you should know & will hear more of in 2009 perhaps (She was a quarterfinalist at the French) - Kanepi.

Lisicki +170(Hantuchova)
Hantuchova is up one minute, down the next. Good price here for the underdog who made the finals last week in Tashkent & carried over with a nice win in the first round here in Luxembourg.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 10-22-08, 07:43 AM

Originally posted by meganie

The strange thing is that he played doubles today. We'll see, if he plays the next round.

There were some ..... ahem ...... "interesting betting patterns" before that match. Robredo 2-0 got bet down to -300 or so.

**meganie** · 10-22-08, 08:19 AM

Originally posted by HeeeHAWWWW

There were some ..... ahem ...... "interesting betting patterns" before that match. Robredo 2-0 got bet down to -300 or so.

He was about -600 for several times.

Petzschner = disappointment
Chakvetadze = joke
Radwanska -> maybe finding her form again
Muller -> struggles to find his US Open form
Golubev -> stronger than expected

Kohlschreiber-Andreev is going to the third set with 7-6 6-7. Now THAT'S a 50/50 match.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-22-08, 08:49 AM

Not surprised that Petzschner lost, but how badly he did - geeze man! Ruined a parlay that I had with Schuettler.

**meganie** · 10-22-08, 09:01 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Not surprised that Petzschner lost, but how badly he did - geeze man! Ruined a parlay that I had with Schuettler.

I've also got a parlay with (old solid, yeah I know I went against him with Kunitsyn) Schüttler, but with Robredo, so hopefully LT's thread doesn't bring me bad luck.

Srebotnik at +150 over Petrova seems to be the bet of the day, I give her at least a 50/50 chance against Petrova.
Also Chardy at +137 over Tipsarevic seems to be a very price.
And Ouanna at +110 over Lapentti seems to be ok too.

Just thinking of the amount, I'll throw in. Any thoughts on them, Eagles?

And I have a parlay with Roddick at -400 in my mind, just doesn't know with whom to parlay with.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-22-08, 09:15 AM

Don't really think much of Ouanna myself. Out of the wins for him & Lapentti in this 1st round, Lapentti beating Karlovic is far more impressive for me than beating Lubijcic who is really struggling. Ouanna did some nice things, but Lapentti shouldn't be scared of his serve after facing Big Ivo. Of course this could be a coming out party for Ouanna that I'm late on too?!

Chardy played well downing Ancic, but there's always the let down factor after beating a seeded player to be mindful of. I'm passing on that one and no opinion really on Petrova/Srebotnik. Petrova is another one who can flip the switch and dominate at any given time - but can't be trusted in my books.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-22-08, 09:17 AM

By the way, Lisicki has been heavily backed since yesterday - her price is down in the +130-+135 range I see now from +170.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-22-08, 09:30 AM

Looks like Andreev is regaining some form. Guy is like 7-0 vs. Kohlschreiber now. Wow.

I just took Bammer +160 in her home country over Schiavone. Probably a lame pick.

Still in on Lisicki and F.Lopez will be only other play today.

**meganie** · 10-22-08, 09:56 AM

Yeah, I'll reconsider my picks again, thx.

Btw, congrats to LT, Robredo is playing crap and Benneteau is on fire, unbelievable shots, I consider my parlay as lost.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-22-08, 10:01 AM

Does it make you wonder more about the Llodra match watching Robredo? Just curious because Benneteau is a putz even though it is in his home country - it was the same for Llodra.

**meganie** · 10-22-08, 10:23 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Does it make you wonder more about the Llodra match watching Robredo? Just curious because Benneteau is a putz even though it is in his home country - it was the same for Llodra.

Well, he played a lot better yesterday. Today it's like he lost his whole motivation, he is way too passive and is waiting for Benneteau to make the error. I also think the audience had a huge impact on him, obviously it's kids day or so, at the beginning he was playing better, than some kids made noises during the services and he seemed to be bugged by it.
About yesterday: I never had the feeling that the match would be that clear, Llodra looked solid for the most part, except for the games where Robredo broke him. He didn't look injured, he went to the net as usual, he ran as usual, he was dictating at his service games at usual. If you didn't show the article, I wouldn't have any ideas that he was injured.

**meganie** · 10-22-08, 11:32 AM

Bammer

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-22-08, 11:36 AM

Bammer

That helps recoup some of the early loss. On Lopez at +115. Definitely think that is a value play even if he falls short.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-22-08, 03:41 PM

F.Lopez in straights

That win + Bammer helped me come out a little ahead today after tank jobs by Petzschner, Kanepi and Lisicki.

**meganie** · 10-22-08, 03:47 PM

Congrats.

Fish's serve percentage was the difference.