Balls to the Wall: Week of Oct.20

[meganie]

That Del Potro one looks nice! Federer doesn't seem to care how the year ends. DP beat Nalbandian last week convincingly. Can't really argue with the Murray one. Under -200 is solid with what is left in that tourney.

Yeah there was something about that Schuettler one that I just didn't like which is why I stayed away. Are you on Lopez?

I did. Looks fine at the moment, first break for Lopez.

The tournament manager of Linz is a joke: Before the Ivanovic-Pennetta-match even begins, he says in tv that he hopes that Ivanovic will win (Nothing against Ana, it's his comment that is very inappropriate).

And I placed a bet on Ivanovic when she was at -125.

[EaglesPhan36]

He should have just said she's hotter and we'd all rather see here again tomorrow.


I want to pull the trigger on something in the Tsonga-Ferrero match, but I think I like Tsonga better but not for the price. Still tinkering around with taking Darcis later.

[meganie]

He should have just said she's hotter and we'd all rather see here again tomorrow.

Even that would have been more appropriate. He was asked about the field with the enormous amount of top player, and he answered it, yeah, it's a pity that many of them are out early and that's why he wants Ana to win. Nope, Pennetta isn't a top player, she just beat Jankovic and Venus recently, just lucky, eh?

I want to pull the trigger on something in the Tsonga-Ferrero match, but I think I like Tsonga better but not for the price. Still tinkering around with taking Darcis later.

The line moved to Ferrero's favor, so I made a small bet on Tsonga at -200. The price seems to be ok.

[EaglesPhan36]

-200? Wow. I think you got hosed there. I hadn't seen it above -160 for most of the time it had been posted. Close match so far. Too Darcis or not to Darcis, that be my question.

[EaglesPhan36]

Decided to go small on Darcis at +120

[meganie]

-200? Wow. I think you got hosed there. I hadn't seen it above -160 for most of the time it had been posted. Close match so far. Too Darcis or not to Darcis, that be my question.

Wow, -160 would have been a really nice price. You should've grabbed it. He's leading with a break in the second set.

Decided to go small on Darcis at +120

GL (though you're on the other side)

[EaglesPhan36]

Tsonga's got that easy. I just didn't want to take the bigger price. -160 is my threshold for single plays and after getting burned by the Russians this morning, I was happy to take the Lopez win and then go for Darcis. Thinking about a play on the OVER at 23 games for Benneteau.Darcis also (+105) ... Benneteau might dominate it in two, but if Darcis stays in it - I can't not see a 3 setter or maybe a tie break at least in one set.

[meganie]

Tsonga's got that easy. I just didn't want to take the bigger price. -160 is my threshold for single plays and after getting burned by the Russians this morning, I was happy to take the Lopez win and then go for Darcis. Thinking about a play on the OVER at 23 games for Benneteau.Darcis also (+105) ... Benneteau might dominate it in two, but if Darcis stays in it - I can't not see a 3 setter or maybe a tie break at least in one set.

I can understand your point.

I always get the UNDER/OVER wrong, so I say UNDER for your sake.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well I held off on doing the over/under. Good thing as this appears it will be over in straights. Darcis' serve is not good today. Oh well, always good to go small and lose rather than losing big. Nice job with Benneteau. I still hate betting on that guy.

[meganie]

I still hate betting on that guy.

You won't have to. Because it's gonna be "Au revoir" after tomorrow.

[EaglesPhan36]

SATURDAY

**These prices are above my personal threshold for single plays, so parlaying them might be your safest bet if you don't dig laying the big price**

Del Potro -170(Nalbandian)
Can't find a reason not to take Juan Del Potro here. Just one week earlier, he demolished Nalbandian in straight sets 6-4, 6-2 in Madrid where Nalbandian had great success over the years. Nalbandian struggled with his 2nd serve in that match which JDP pounced on for 70% of the points. Del Potro's service game has been steady this week, with JDP winning about 75% of the points on his serve. Nalbandian has done about the same with his own serve. Del Potro has been a bit more consistent winning returns this week and that could very well be the difference in this match. Could go the revenge angle here, but with how easily JDP won last week - it would take a considerably miserable day from him and a step up from Nalbandian to avoid a repeat of Madrid.

Tsonga -195(Benneteau)
Tsonga got stronger as the match with Juan Carlos Ferrero went on yesterday and that is a good sign for a guy always dogged by the fitness/injury question. Tsonga won a tight tie breaker in the first set and them dominated JCF for a 6-1 win in the second. The Tsonga serve has been sizzling this week with 15 aces vs. JCF and 84% of the points won on his first serve. He has 45 aces here in 3 matches. Tsonga' s return game has been solid as well, consistently winning 33% or more of the points off his opponent's serve. Benneteau has had a renaissance of sorts here in Lyon this week after a mostly disasterous last half of 2008. He's feasted on weak serves by his opponents and kept his own serve in check to win points. Chances are he doesn't get that luxury vs. the sting of Tsong'as serve. So long as Tsonga remains strong and continues to rip his serve at a high percentage and steers clear of too many unforced errors, he should have too much for his fellow countryman.

Those are my two favorites for Saturday. Also think Soderling should beat Simon so long as Soderling's serve remains powerful as it has been thus far. Simon at some point has to get tired ... right?

And not that I think he's going to win, but Feliciano Lopez at +550 against Federer isn't the worst longshot bet I've ever seen.

[rumple]

Tsonga now -240 at Bodog, -220 5dimes, pass for me. Did get -170 on Del Potro, gl.

[EaglesPhan36]

Quite a disparity in Feliciano Lopez at the different books. +550 at Bookmaker. +750 at 5 Dimes. Pinnacle has him for +800. At those last two prices, $25 of my money is worth a dart throw.

[meganie]

I agree with me, except for the Simon part. Söderling should be the favorite, but not for ~-175 - -150. Simon at +138 is just too good of a price for me to not grab it.

Also got two parlays: Zvonareva/Murray at -208 and Tsonga/Dementieva at -154.

[EaglesPhan36]

Looks like my week might end with a whimper. Had a Del Potro/Tsonga parlay and Del Potro is not playing well today. Also went with Wozniacki/Tsonga on a parlay. Shocker, Simon's match goes to a 3rd set!

[EaglesPhan36]

That Murray future in St.Petersburg is looking superb. Couldn't have had it shake down better for the final Meg.


Sorry about Del Potro. Nalbandian actually amped up his game some and Del Potro wasn't quite as sharp as he'd been this week in other matches.

Soderling won in 3. Tsonga starting to roll now, up 4-1. Tsonga.Soderling would be a fantastic final! Aces galore.

[EaglesPhan36]

Jesus Tsonga is an idot. Up 5-2 in the first. He loses in a tie break! Wow.

[meganie]

I agree with me

Ehm, this should mean "agree with you"

Wow, how surprising the results are. Benneteau, Golubev, (Nalbandian).

I thought about making a parlay with Hanescu, glad I didn't. But I could kick myself for not backing up Nalbandian at over +150. I'd have broke even with my Del Potro future.

Well, at least Verdasco proved that he just isn't good enough at hard court and Zvonareva swept Bartoli with no mercy. So, Murray tomorrow should be like free money.

What do you think about tomorrow? I'll probably pass. The only match I'm thinking about playing is Zvonareva against Ivanovic. But the odds aren't really good enough. The max I can find is even. So unless the line moves to Ana's direction, I won't do anything.

[EaglesPhan36]

I'll see when the prices come out. Off hand, the only one I would think about and I've been wrong about this putz all week is going against Benneteau again with Soderling. Him beating Tsonga today could actually help keep Soderling's price within a decent range.

Dementieva's price will probably be too high, but Wozniacki was lucky to play a piece of shit today in Na Li. Anyone with game would have beat her in straight sets with the way she consistently tried to give the game away with her serve. Dementieva in straights might not be horrible if the price is decent.

[EaglesPhan36]

Opening prices:

Soderling -190
Dementieva -240

Eek.

[meganie]

Opening prices:

Soderling -190
Dementieva -240

Eek.

I know, I said that I won't back Benneteau again, but the best price I can get for Söderling is about -200 and that's just overvalued. So I'm on choker Benneteau at +190.

And even for Dementieva 2-0 seems nice too.

My picks for tomorrow:
Benneteau at +190
Dementieva 2-0 at even
Federer-Nalbandian OVER 21.5 at -120
[Paris qualifying]Troicki at -175
[Paris qualifying]Granollers at -105

Might add [Paris qualifying]Bolelli and Ginepri, if I can find a decent price.

Edit: Adding Bolelli at -124.

[meganie]

Game over. Söderling plays unbelievable and Benneteau plays unbelievable...bad.

Or not? He breaks back...But to be honest, start fighting when you're one set and one break down is a little bit late.
The crowd is now cheering every error from Söderling, we'll see how this affects him game.

[EaglesPhan36]

Glad I decided to sit this one out! Congrats on your Murray future. Looks like Soderling is in control.

[meganie]

Glad I decided to sit this one out! Congrats on your Murray future. Looks like Soderling is in control.

Yeah, the match is over...Benneteau simply gave up, after Söderling broke him. Glad I didn't spend to much on this choker.

And I continue to suck at finals, probably 0-3 for today.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah well not that there are that many tourneys left, but I think my rule is going to be to stop after Fridays because I seem much worse on the weekends.

[meganie]

Yeah well not that there are that many tourneys left, but I think my rule is going to be to stop after Fridays because I seem much worse on the weekends.

I concur. I'm 3-0 on the qualifying matches today and instead of making a decent win, I end up about break even. I'm following you with that rule, so no bets for me at semis and finals, unless I see one I really really like.

Mr. Llodra played doubles final today and even won it...