EP36's Tennis Elbow

**sharlataans** · 01-30-12, 03:32 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

FYI, it looks like Bovada is gong to stay in the Challenger market ... very nice addition.

Also going to attempt to keep an up-to-date record starting with this week since people seem to get off on that sort of thing. I had done a good job up until the Australian Open and then there was one day where this thread turned into a play-by-play thread and I simply got lost with all the pages. Pretty sure for the year I am a little under .500 and probably down some units.

**Nikigreat** · 01-30-12, 04:06 AM

Originally posted by Jrod124

Lacko is insane to play at this price, I agree with EP if u dig it you should consider the HC or maybe the under 21.5 games. At actually had this match around -220 for Lacko, was shocked to see my shop has -345 for the Slovak.

Good Luck though whatever you choose

Yeah both you are right. I got involved by the poor numbers of the italian on indoors and by the good of Lacko.
I don't know what to pair with him, maybe a soccer one, but i have not chosen yet.

**Adam8** · 01-30-12, 04:07 AM

Anyone like Viola over Lajovic tonight in Zagreb he beat him in the AO and hes at +170 now.

**sharlataans** · 01-30-12, 05:12 AM

Insane price for Lacko. Potito can be very dangerous on a good day. He could take a set with his serve only IMO. I guess I will take OVER 21.5 here.

**Adam8** · 01-30-12, 06:02 AM

Viola went up to +220 and cashes easy

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-30-12, 06:09 AM

Monday, January 30th

#1
Parlay: Bachinger + Pospisil [-116]

**sharlataans** · 01-30-12, 07:51 AM

Did you guys notice Donskoy is playing in Kazan, and it is televised (bet365). I believe it is worth keeping an eye on him for a tasty fade. Bet365 had his opponent at +1200, strange that match is taken away already.

Did not see the match in underway. 6:0 Donskoy, Manegin hardly got any point even on his own serve

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-30-12, 08:19 AM

Russian Challengers ..

**Nikigreat** · 01-30-12, 09:29 AM

What do you think of Muller over Florian Mayer at Montpellier? -104
Mayer returns from a groin injury he had in Brisbane at the start of the year. It's really hard to break Muller serve on indoor and if Florian condition is not 100% it will be really hard for him to prevail.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-30-12, 09:32 AM

I think too many question marks to offer a good bet really. Muller was terrible last week at a Challenger and as you said, Mayer coming back from injury with no real way to know where he's at.

**sharlataans** · 01-30-12, 09:40 AM

Originally posted by sharlataans

Insane price for Lacko. Potito can be very dangerous on a good day. He could take a set with his serve only IMO. I guess I will take OVER 21.5 here.

Over hits

**sharlataans** · 01-30-12, 10:14 AM

Potito takes 2nd set

Too bad there is no video, but I guess he does not have the endurance to win this.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-30-12, 10:45 AM

I need to add Pospisil to my no fly list. I don't ever seem to be on the right side with that cat.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-30-12, 11:06 AM

ATP: Vina Del Mar
L.Mayer +200
Souza +135

Trying out two dogs in Chile on dirt. Think one of them survives the day. Mayer draws Giraldo. Souza gets Volandri. Altogether, Giraldo is a superior talent to Mayer, but on dirt the gap isn't as large as the price suggests. Being a "first up" situation for both on clay, I'm willing to see if Giraldo is in good form on this surface. Both guys earned their stripes on clay where Giraldo has now become a pretty decent hard court player, Mayer still sticks to dirt. If you look at both on this surface, you'll see on their best days - they can be threatening. I'll take Mayer here thinking he's got a chance in this situation. Souza and Volandri is really a matter of which version of which player shows up. Volandri pounded Souza in Bucharest last Fall, but both these guys have real highs and lows. Both reside in the line between ATP-Challenger, playing both with more success on the lower level. Volandri plays a lot of his tennis in Italy, picking off the weak in Challengers ... sometimes he doesn't translate that to success outside his home country. This may be one sided today, but I think who gets who is up in the air.

**sharlataans** · 01-30-12, 11:23 AM

Taking Muller live. Florian plays funny and risky moves like he came there for fun training.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-30-12, 11:31 AM

Gotta say, using Bovada to supplement 5Dimes for tennis as far as money lines is really not a bad option for US Players WHEN BETTING UNDERDOGS because of their oddball line hanging.

Example: L.Mayer right now is +173 at 5Dimes, +200 at Bovada.

Of course if you're taking the favorite, you're losing about 20 cents too. Volandri -175 at Bovada, -155 at 5Dimes. Just something to point out for price shoppers.

Will have some Burnie Challenger plays this evening for Australia. Hopefully the rain tapers off today.

**sharlataans** · 01-30-12, 11:34 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Gotta say, using Bovada to supplement 5Dimes for tennis as far as money lines is really not a bad option for US Players WHEN BETTING UNDERDOGS because of their oddball line hanging.

Example: L.Mayer right now is +173 at 5Dimes, +200 at Bovada.

Of course if you're taking the favorite, you're losing about 20 cents too. Volandri -175 at Bovada, -155 at 5Dimes. Just something to point out for price shoppers.

So aren't you limited by Bovada, yet? If you take these dogs and win I guess it will not take too long.

**Optional** · 01-30-12, 12:30 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

FYI, it looks like Bovada is gong to stay in the Challenger market ... very nice addition.

Which books have American's got for Challenger apart from 5D and Bovada EP?

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-30-12, 02:55 PM

Those are the only ones I am aware of for USA players unless someone else knows of any. Like I said, I was shocked Bovada has them. Was pretty much 5Dimes only territory prior to this year. I don't bet overly large amounts on tennis, so I doubt I would even draw anyone's attention if I was winning regularly [ha] on dogs.

Well I guess I was right about the Souza match being over quick ... I'm on the wrong side at this point of course.

**beefcake** · 01-30-12, 03:23 PM

Still saying Duckworth is a hell of a price even at almost -200.Like you were saying also with the GOOCH as well.Pretty good 2 team parlay there.I hope that Dikk Fukk Istomin loses to "Jason" Statham

**Optional** · 01-30-12, 03:23 PM

Bummer about Souza.

Have you had a look at Burnie at all yet? I'm really liking Ben Mitchell against The Duck at +125. But am kind of wondering why Duckworth is the favorite. Any chance it's simply over the recent media attention from beating Mahut and Zopp? Mitchell beat Kukushkin and Mayer over the same period, and looks like he has him on toast on this surface, and in particular at this venue.

Am I missing something you know about?

**Optional** · 01-30-12, 03:24 PM

Oh no... posted at same time Beefcake.

Sounds like you can tell me what I have wrong!?

**beefcake** · 01-30-12, 03:26 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Gotta say, using Bovada to supplement 5Dimes for tennis as far as money lines is really not a bad option for US Players WHEN BETTING UNDERDOGS because of their oddball line hanging.

Example: L.Mayer right now is +173 at 5Dimes, +200 at Bovada.

Of course if you're taking the favorite, you're losing about 20 cents too. Volandri -175 at Bovada, -155 at 5Dimes. Just something to point out for price shoppers.

Will have some Burnie Challenger plays this evening for Australia. Hopefully the rain tapers off today.

Hmm, now that we have 2 options, might be worth it to keep an eye on the prices.Might get some shots with Bovadas slow line movement to get a few scalps with + money on both sides and make some change on a cant lose bet. Hey it all adds up.

**beefcake** · 01-30-12, 03:28 PM

Originally posted by Optional

Oh no... posted at same time Beefcake.

Sounds like you can tell me what I have wrong!?

Maybe you an tell me. Guess I am in love with him for his play earlier this month. Did not know about how well Mitchell played as well. Might be a no play..

**Optional** · 01-30-12, 03:39 PM

I was in love with him too. Probably for the same reason. He did play well. But when I looked at the stats I swung the other way fast.

I really don't know though, so only put $20 on it. Was hoping for a bit of confirmation or not from here to decide if it was worth an extra 30.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-30-12, 04:20 PM

Finalizing those Burnie picks, just trying to find more info.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-30-12, 05:04 PM

Souza wins! 3rd set tie break is what it took.

**Yezzir** · 01-30-12, 05:05 PM

Tailed you on Souza, fukk me he made hard work of it, but good pick!

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-30-12, 05:13 PM

Yeah I thought he was toast mid-way through the 2nd when he got broken, but Volandri provided some nice gifts back in that set and the 3rd was just a good battle.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-30-12, 05:40 PM

January 30th
Burnie Challenger

Mitchell +135
Thought about this match with Duckworth for a while and I think Duckworth might be getting over valued here, so in what should be a tight match-up, I'm taking plus money with Mitchell. They've met ince here a couple years ago with Mitchell winning. Duckworth has the recent pub due to his Aussie Open win and taking a set of Tipsarevic, but Mitchell is no slouch. They're both still green, so consistency is always questionable. Mitchell may see this as a shot to take back some of the limelight for the young Aussie crew fighting to get noticed.

Jones -140
Greg Jones against fellow Aussie, Millman. They have played five times between futures and Challengers with Millman holding the lead, 3-2. Millman has been okay this season with some quali wins in Brisbane, but he was bounced by Pospisil in Aussie Open qualis. Jones has been up & down as well, but won two sets off Dolgpolov in the Aussie Open before losing in 5. Not sure entirely what to make of that win, but Millman's ranking plummeted in 2011 due to him not playing much and I just think Jones right now seems the overall better player.

**Optional** · 01-30-12, 07:41 PM

Is that +135 a Bovada or 5D price?

I'd parlay that Jones with Sugita if 5D still had the Jones match on the board. Hasn't started yet I didn't think.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-30-12, 08:57 PM

Mitchell I think was +135 at both.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-30-12, 09:08 PM

Well Jones was terrible. I waffled on that one and went the wrong way. Breaks even since I did the same on the Mitchell match and got the winner. Going to break my record down into three categories and see if I can't keep tracking them from now on so you can know how much I suck.

Parlays: 0-2 [-2.31]
Dogs: 2-0 [+3.35]
Challengers: 1-1 [-0.05]

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-30-12, 09:18 PM

Adding one more ...

Burnie Challenger Parlay: Guccione + Istomin [-115]
Don't fukk me Gooch!

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-30-12, 10:06 PM

Shoulda quit. Gooch fukkin' me.