EP36's Tennis Elbow

**Yezzir** · 01-10-12, 05:12 PM

Any reason for Stepanek dropping from -188 to -150?

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-10-12, 05:40 PM

Not that I can see other than he had to work hard against Malisse and some might just be looking to fade him. I would not be anything in Melbourne today either Aussie Open qualis or Kooyong - weather is iffy. Even when they get action in, the wind is gusty and no telling what that will do although I will be surprised if they get much in today.

**MatI** · 01-10-12, 05:58 PM

Weather here in Melbourne is absolutely nuts! pelting down for the moment, coldest Jan day in 3 years.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-10-12, 06:03 PM

This Stepanek movement is a bit troublesome now, all the way down to -135. Thinking about jumping ship, researching ...

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-10-12, 06:26 PM

Do not see any info on an injury or illness. Fukk it. Always said the line movement in tennis has no rhyme or reason unless it's massive. This is about a 35 cent swing - big, but not massive. I'll take my beating if he loses, but I'll stand pat on the picks.

**beefcake** · 01-10-12, 08:40 PM

I think if you knew all the players tendencies, with the windy weather you could find a good play fading big servers vs the folks that volley?

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-10-12, 09:22 PM

Well the price drop obviously indicated something on Stepanek. Fukk.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-11-12, 12:53 AM

WTA Sydney: Wozniacki -125
Was keeping this one in my pocket for late. The head-2-head shows there is something about Woz that troubles Radwanksa's game. Sure, Woz was dead yesterday, but one thing she does better than most is fight until the end. Ag-Rad beat Petkovic handily in straights, but her game wasn't very clean. She left 17 break opps hanging in the breeze, but Petkovic only converted 14. Wozniacki is likely to pounce on those opportunities and make Radwanska pay if she leaves those opps out there. Should be a good one though.

**apeterlives** · 01-11-12, 12:56 AM

the stats on this Bogomolov Troicki game are hilarious so far, it will come down to who can remember how to serve

**Yezzir** · 01-11-12, 07:21 AM

Wozniacki is allergic to nets.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-11-12, 07:34 AM

I won't count her out yet after yesterday, but she had ample opportunity to close it out in the 2nd and blew it.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-11-12, 08:17 AM

The Elbow: 17-16-2 [-0.87]

2-2. Wound up playing Benneteau as a solo play after Stepanek screwed that parlay, so at least they helped some. Wozniacki disappointing because the match was on her racket in the 2nd set, but she blew it. Thems the breaks of WTA.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-11-12, 12:23 PM

Well I feel "better" about Wozniacki losing now. She hurt her wrist sometime in the 2nd set. Not that anyone would consider here any how, but a definite no go on Aussie futures for her.

Looks like some quali action will take place in Melbourne today. Rain, but windows of opportunity.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-11-12, 03:17 PM

January 11th

Australian Open Qualifiers
*Zemlja [-140]: He's facing a veteran in Gremelmyr who is no slouch. Both had a prep in Doha this year and both made in through qualis and into the main draw before losing. Zemlja showed very well last year in Slams by making it through qualis in Australia & Wimbledon to make it into the main draw where he won a round in England and loss a 5 setter to Baghdatis in Australia. He made it to the final round of qualis for the US Open, so he's been very adept at knowing how to get through these situations. It'll be tough, but I like his all-around game better.

*Robson [-130]: On the WTA side, going with the Brit who is up against Melanie Oudin. Oudin has just been in shambles since her miracle run at the US Open. Oudin couldn't make it past the QFs in the Aussie wildcards to try and get into the main draw. Robson meanwhile is a good looking young talent. She made it through qualis at the US Open last year and won a main draw match as well as winning a main draw match at Wimbledon. She's got the game and when she turns 18 this year, she'll be seen more on-tour. If she's going to live up to expectations, she needs to beat Oudin.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-11-12, 04:56 PM

ATP Sydney: Reynolds +173
Reynolds draws Nieminen here and for me, this is a much bigger deal for Reynolds in this spot. By making the QFs here, he's missing out on Australian Open qualifying. At this stage of his career, he's rarely running this deep into an ATP main draw - the last time he made the QFs of an ATP tourney was 2008! Nieminen failed to impress against a struggling Stepanek yesterday and rest could be in order for him soon as he's run through qualis this week and may want to start thinking about Melbourne. Even if that's not the case, Reynolds is playing well enough that the price is nice to try him tonight in a very winnable match.

WTA Hobart: Cirstea-Kerber Under 20.5 [-120]
Kerber has been solid in her two matches here, winning big in straights in both. Cirstea is one of those players who isn't suited to hard courts, but finds runs on the surface once in a while. I don't fancy her serve which can be pathetic, especially if the 1st serve percentage is low. If Kerber sees a lot of 2nd serves, she should pounce on them. Kerber for her part needs to get her 1st serve in consistently to get easy holds.

Parlay: Kvitova + Wickmayer [-112]
Wickmayer against Halep who she just destroyed in Brisbane in straights. If her serve stands up again, she should advance. Kvitova draws Li. Kvitova is on a real roll early this season and her power on this surface should be troublesome for Li. Li's serve isn't solid enough to where she will hold up IMO over the course of the match if Kvitova is popping her serve in for easy points.

**tevari** · 01-11-12, 04:58 PM

On Robson as well. Lezgo

**Wesley** · 01-11-12, 07:46 PM

Kerber destroyed Cirstea in set 1 ... her form looks good...hopefully she will show it at the Australian Open

**Optional** · 01-11-12, 08:13 PM

There was a young Brit girl who did well on the grass last year in the run into Wimbledon. Can't recall for the life of me what her name was now and meant to remember it. Thought it was Robson for a moment but it's not the one.

Anyone know who I could be thinking of?

**Wesley** · 01-11-12, 08:21 PM

Originally posted by Optional

There was a young Brit girl who did well on the grass last year in the run into Wimbledon. Can't recall for the life of me what her name was now and meant to remember it. Thought it was Robson for a moment but it's not the one.

Anyone know who I could be thinking of?

there were only 3 ladies from UK in round 2 at wimbledon last year...

Robson lost in 2 to Maria (6-7 3-6)
Baltacha lost in 3 to Peng
and Keothavong lost to Kvitova 2-6 1-6

maybe it was Robson, because Maria had some problems against her, especially in set 1?

**Sport_Fish** · 01-11-12, 08:40 PM

wtf is up with that Kerber vs Cristea game...6-0 on first...and now just a plain meltdown by Kerber.

Anyone else smelling something fishy here? Hint: Live betting =/

**Wesley** · 01-11-12, 08:53 PM

don't know...but Tsonga did the same shit versus Nishikori

**Optional** · 01-11-12, 08:59 PM

Originally posted by Wesley

there were only 3 ladies from UK in round 2 at wimbledon last year...

Robson lost in 2 to Maria (6-7 3-6)
Baltacha lost in 3 to Peng
and Keothavong lost to Kvitova 2-6 1-6

maybe it was Robson, because Maria had some problems against her, especially in set 1?

Thanks Wesley

Must have been Baltacha I was thinking of. As she went 7-2 on grass during June. (including an ITF win) Not sure where I got young from though.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-11-12, 08:59 PM

Yeah Kerber = brick shithouse after the 1st set. Welcome to WTA.

**Sport_Fish** · 01-11-12, 09:04 PM

Like i always believed...ATP is much easier to cap and profit with. WTA has more fked up shit than anyone can possibly imagine

**Wesley** · 01-11-12, 09:07 PM

now she made 5 games in a row and won this shitty match..lomg

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-11-12, 10:04 PM

Man Zemlja blew this shit. Up a break in the 3rd and he gives it back.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-11-12, 10:25 PM

Nice rebound Zemlja, wins it 8-6 in the 3rd. Now let's start rollin' with some weiners.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-11-12, 11:19 PM

Fade Nieminen again tomorrow. Terrible 2nd serve. Nieminen is going to survive again playing like a YMCA pro.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-12-12, 12:03 AM

WTA Sydney: Azarenka-Radwanska Over 21 [-110]
Seemed right based nn previous encounter and WTA deliciousness.

**apeterlives** · 01-12-12, 12:48 AM

good luck on the over eagle, taking a chance at rad +200

**apeterlives** · 01-12-12, 03:50 AM

nice hit on the over and rad+4 hit

**Glitch** · 01-12-12, 04:10 AM

any hot futures on the women's side?
i have penetta and bartoli

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-12-12, 06:15 AM

Well thank goodness for the qualis, both hit to save me from a total shite day. Kvitova really disappointed me to screw that parlay.

The Elbow: 20-19-2 [-1.19]

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-12-12, 12:13 PM

January 12yh

Australian Open Qualis

Parlay: Lacko + Robson [-110]
Lacko has a run of two straight Slams where he made it through qualis dating back to Wimbledon last year. He's also never failed to make the main draw in Australia in two previous trips through qualis. He was solid in his opener getting his 1st serve in for a high percentage and never being broken. Beden is his opposition. The Slovak also had little trouble yesterday. Overall, his best results have come on clay. He's shown ability on this surface, but looks to be lacking against players more accustomed to the surface over the course of three sets. Sticking with Robson again today. She whipped Oudin in straights and really could have made it even more ugly but lost her concentration late in the 2nd set. She regrouped to win the set and that experience probably helps going forward. She draws Floris, an ITF level player who prefers clay. Her 1st up here was her first hard court match since last March. She's only made the final round of qualis at a hard court Slam once in five tries and that was here two years ago. This is one of those matches where Robson needs to show her talent and prevail if she's going to continue to progress.

Krunic +110
Granda Jill Craybas in the house against the Serbian teen who is half her age. Craybas' opener was terrible against a journey-woman clay court type from Spain. Craybas got crushed in the opener 6-1 and then fought back 7-5, 7-5. She lost nine of 15 break opportunities offered. Krunic was a bit more solid, but needs an improved first serve that only got in 39% yesterday. She did pop off 7 aces and saved four of nine break opps. Confidence is key and I think if she can start fast and Craybas plays like Craybas does, the teen's got a shot.

de Veigy +150
The Frenchman draws Bubka and when Bubka's serve is on, he's tough to break - the same though is true of this Frenchman. Both guys made it through US Open Qualis into the main draw last year with Bubka winning a main draw match as well. de Veigy doesn't have as much experience on this surface, but what he has shown is that he competes hard and when his serve is working well as it was in Round 1, he can definitely take a match against a guy like Bubka. I rode this guy a couple rounds in that US Open qualifying tourney, so hopefully he can repeat the feat.

**jeffdane** · 01-12-12, 01:47 PM

hey EP,

can you give me 2 or 3 guys and girls, that will more than likely win their first 3 or 4 matches. im going to do an open parlay with hopefully 3 guys and 3 girls to win their first 3 matches. i know there are upsets but im only trying to get the first 3 rounds. it prob wont pay much but who knows since it will be a 18-25 parlay.

thanks sir.