Stacocakes Australian Open Thread

[Stacocakes]

Really think that no female tennis player should ever be that price

Will be interested to see how schiavone plays after the marathon match. I don't think she will play well at all

[MUHerd37]

The more I read about Nadal's illness, the more it concerns me

[EaglesPhan36]

Just remember Cilic isn't fresh either. I really think the only good things to wager on that match are the O/U games and sets. I can see Cilic taking a set which means the over cashes for both of those likely. I'd trust Rafa at less than 100% more than Cilic.

Ferrer in control now. Return skills negating the big Canuck.

[MUHerd37]

Nadal is -850 now. Not sure if I need to pull the trigger or see if it comes down some before the match.

[Stacocakes]

The though of taking Nadal tonight keeps on creeping into my head as well but I just think about the price and his illness and it keeps me away. Still think about it though. I also think about how bad it would feel to take the -700 something price and lose knowing that his health was up in the air going in the match.

Probably best to stay away but I think if you do end up going for it tonight, there is no player I would rather have my money on then Rafa

[Stacocakes]

Break Radwanska

[MUHerd37]

What about Nadal 1st set? It was at -400 a little while back

[Stacocakes]

I think if I was going to lay the kind of chalk you are talking about I would take Rafa over the match instead of a particular set.One point here or there can be the difference in who wins a set so I would rather take my chances over a best of five match that Rafa would beat Cilic rather then picking Nadal to win a particular set.

[Stacocakes]

Radwanska wins

[Stacocakes]

Ferrer wins.Great run by Raonic though

[Stacocakes]

Nadal line keeps getting bigger every time I look at it. People chasing with him

[BetaB]

what happen to nadal, what kind of illness he got?

[Stacocakes]

Supposedly he has had the flu for awhile. Who knows how serious but he has been playing well so far. Lots of rumors start on the internet so who knows what is true.Just what I have read on forums

[BetaB]

Supposedly he has had the flu for awhile. Who knows how serious but he has been playing well so far. Lots of rumors start on the internet so who knows what is true.Just what I have read on forums

Thanks for the reply. Looking at how he played recently i wouldn't be that worry. I'm trying to complete my rollover here so i was really looking in to this match.

[MUHerd37]

Nadal just went to -1067. That takes me out. I'm not going that high. Wish I had jumped in at -770.

[BetaB]

bet365 got it @-1200. I picked up -900 @ betpheonix where i'm trying to complete my rollover.

[Stacocakes]

Betab can you bet that big of a fav to complete a rollover?Most books have rules that you can only bet -200's or less for rollover requirements

[Gee]

Read article below. Even if he is playing a few games, can you really lay the chalk with those kind of words from the horses mouth?

http://www.skynews.com.au/sport/article.aspx?id=567965&vId=

Grand-slam hunter Rafael Nadal can't guarantee he can go the distance at Melbourne Park as he continues to recover from the untimely fever that struck him down on the eve of the Australian Open.The reigning French, Wimbledon and US Open champion closed to within four wins of an elusive grand slam sweep with a taxing 6-2 7-5 6-3 third-round victory over Australian teenager Bernard Tomic on Saturday night.
The world No.1 required three shirt changes during the two-and-a-half-hour encounter and admitted he would have preferred a much lighter workout heading into the business week of the tournament.
'I was perfect when I started the season in Abu Dhabi playing,' Nadal said. 'I was playing perfect and I was feeling perfect physically.
'In Doha, I had that problem. I wasn't feel very well. Have fever and these things.
'Seems like after that my body is still not perfect. I am sweating more than usual. I am more tired than usual when I'm playing.'
Nadal faces Croatian 15th seed Marin Cilic on Monday for a place in the quarter-finals, but can't promise he will survive the four more best-of-five-set matches he requires to become the first man since Rod Laver in 1969 to house all four grand slam trophies at once.
'Hopefully I'm going to improve. I don't know,' he said.
'I don't know what's going on. I am doing all that I can. I am working, I am resting. I can't do more.
'If I don't feel perfect, it's not my fault. It's day to day. All I can say is keep fighting.
'I have my (energy) biscuits, for the problem maybe. If I eat more, maybe I am better next week.'
Victory over Cilic - a semi-finalist last year in Melbourne - would advance Nadal to a quarter-final on Wednesday against either Spanish countryman David Ferrer or unseeded Canadian Milos Raonic.
Nadal is projected to meet either Swedish fourth seed Robin Soderling or British fifth seed Andy Murray in the semi-finals, with titleholder Roger Federer or 2008 champion and third seed Novak Djokovic likely to be lying in wait in the championship decider.

[Stacocakes]

Ya it was enough to scare me away

[MUHerd37]

Yeah I had already read what Nadal said. I would still have bet him at -770 but the fukkin price has gone up over 50%.

[MUHerd37]

Nadal will win easily since I'm not betting him. Clijsters too.

[MUHerd37]

Shit. Now they have Nadal at -860 in reduced and he's down to -900 regular. Making me think again

[Stacocakes]

Let me know what you do.I'll be here watching the match

[MUHerd37]

I'm just not sure I can do it man. I already have a smaller amount on Rafa 1st set and Clijsters for the match. It just seems like Nadal is easy money.

[kingsr]

Clijsters wont have it easy. Makarova matches up well with her and may frustrate the sh*t out of her

[BetaB]

Betab can you bet that big of a fav to complete a rollover?Most books have rules that you can only bet -200's or less for rollover requirements

Yeah, you're right i check it. I'm still confident that i will complete the rollover anyway just want it to complete a little faster. Good thing i only got 10% on nadal

[shari91]

Shit MU, I'm liking Cilic first set just so I can have something on while I watch. Screw it. I'll go with my original plan and skip that one entirely so I can cheer you on. I am on Makarova +6.5 so as long she covers, we can both win with the women. Best of luck guys!!

[MUHerd37]

GL Shari and sorry to screw your plans haha. I made that bet Saturday. I so want to bet huge Nadal but I'm having problems getting myself to do it.

[kingsr]

MuHerd, how much you wanna lay down? Is it really worth it with so much juice? My book has it at $1.08, I'd have to put 10k on it just to get a decent win with that much juice. F*ck that, not worth the heart attack.

[Stacocakes]

walking onto the court right now.Lets do this

[shari91]

GL Shari and sorry to screw your plans haha. I made that bet Saturday. I so want to bet huge Nadal but I'm having problems getting myself to do it.

I think the rational part of your brain is holding you back. The announcer just said that Cilic is one of only 4 current players that Nadal has a losing record against. I think this price isn't worth it to be honest. I have a feeling if he wins it won't be easy.

[MUHerd37]

Yeah Cilic won their 1 meeting 2009 I think it was. I feel I shouldn't do it because I'm just chasing. I have made a little money each day of the Aussie open except 2. The thing is that college basketball is knocking my dick off!!! I have seen such bullshit with basketball this past week. I'm in a rut and it's pissing me off. I just fear putting too much of my bankroll on 1 match with Rafa not at 100%. I have grown my bankroll over 500% in the last 10 months and too do something too stupid would really suck. I just gotta keep grinding away.
kingsr I was just gonna lay down enough to make a quick $100 so it would have been $860

[Stacocakes]

Losses are the worst. It's hard to resist the temptation to try to get the losses all back on the first thing that comes up. Sadly most cave in and chase and we all know what happens then

[Stacocakes]

Nice first shot

[MUHerd37]

The other thing that sucks is that 5Dimes doesn't have live betting. Bookmaker doesn't either