[Jeff_Black]

Unlucky man, although Roger did win the match in 5 sets.
I just went for ML directly instead.

Yeah that was a bizarre bad service game from him in that third set that went to 0-40

[miczz14]

is the +4.5 added on set wins?

[Jeff_Black]

Yes no matter how many sets it is he has to cover that handicap

[miczz14]

i thought there is only 5 sets? sorry new to tennis here

[Jeff_Black]

Yeah that's right
Mines a games won handicap
Not a sets won

Apologies for the delay, been watching 😁

[laker5]

Nice call Jeff

[Jeff_Black]

Nice call Jeff

Thanks

Handicap: Grigor Dimitrov +4.5 @ 1.833 on Pinnacle (+$113.06)

YTD: 57-47-6 (+$870.57)
Bankroll: $2827.58

[Jeff_Black]

Australian Open 2000, Womens Singles, Final
Venus Williams vs Serena Williams
Handicap: Venus Williams +4.5 @ 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: $141.38 for a profit of $133.32

As I said at the start of my thread even though 99% of my wagers will be Mens Singles, it doesn't mean I may have a wager on the Womens every once in a while.
Venus has had a good hit out with some of the better players in the competition such as in form Coco Vandeweghe and Pavyulchenkova and Im not really looking too much into the win over Lucic-Baroni by Serena Williams because she was just happy to be in the SF and ride the wave.
Never an easy match between the Williams sisters, Even though the score suggested it I don't think Konta was that bad against Serena, mentally she got stuck right into the second set and ground stroke for stroke was matching her well. Don't think Serena has been pushed as much opposed to Venus and I think they'll put on a show tonight and make it a good match.

[Jeff_Black]

Handicap: Venus Williams +4.5 @ 1.943 on Pinnacle ($+133.32)


YTD: 58-47-6 (+$1003.89)
Bankroll: $2960.90

What an utter farce of a final. Shout out to Serena for making the match as close looking on the scoreboard as possible when she could have won the match 6-2 6-2. Ended up tuning out time to time because I was that bored and it was that obvious. Venus looked like at times she couldn't hit it over the net. Didn't even have to finish watching once Venus hit three games in that second set because you just know there's no way Serena will win the Championship by breaking and she'll at least serve it out.

[Jeff_Black]

Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, Final
Roger Federer vs Rafael Nadal
Moneyline: Roger Federer @ 2.16 on Pinnacle
Stake: $148.04 for a profit of $171.73

Early on we may probably get an indication of how this match has pointed out. From every news clipping and press conference I've read it seems that Roger Federer looks like he wants this one badly and that he acknowledges he let some of those losses against Nadal earlier in his career which makes him play a certain way then he wants too.
We have seen Federer beat Nadal. We have seen how dominant Federer can be over Nadal when he is allowed to play the way he wants to against him, less shorter points, not spending 90% of the time parked on the left hand corner of the court hitting backhands to Nadal.
So in this instance I think enough time has passed by for Federer to approach this match with a clean slate, to play to win this match, rather not to lose it. And I think this court and what he has been able to do on this court will allow that.
Maybe not as physical as Dimitrov but technically better he still looks fit and ready to go. I think for old times sake he has the last laugh like all great Champions do.

[Don_Omarion]

do not think FED wins this, but no betting on this game for me

[Jeff_Black]

Basically I've been thinking about this match since Nadal won his match on Friday. Was very concerned that at times Nadal was broken, I think seeing that footage of Dimitrov practising at night was also a big deal as you could tell he tailored his play to the night conditions, mixing it up, not going blindly all the time to the net.

Federer has come out of the blocks pretty well in all his matches so far without missing much of a beat apart from that bad start against Nishikori and even then he was fortunate it was not 1-6.
if he does that against Nadal he's a dead man. But I am feeling the champion in Federer will rise to the occasion and enough time has passed by since their last final or since Federer played him here that he is a little bit reinvented and not playing the same, otherwise the same results will happen.

Initially i I did not want to bet it but something has to give for the great man at some point. He is probably more aware then any fan the daunting stats and task that sits ahead of him, and I'm hoping the way he has spoken before the match is an indication it won't be a suffocating hole he will fall into that he won't be able to get out of. He's already lost three slam finals to Novak a few years ago and certainly doesn't want to make it four.

If you aren't as confident in Federer may I suggest him to win the first set as that'll probably he his priority this match to get the leg up as much as a good starter Nadal is I can see Federer coming out of the blocks hungrier.

the most painful part by far then losing or watching one of them lose without a wager on is the wait for the match!!!

[Don_Omarion]

both players want this badly, and at this case Nadal should manage the game

no play for me, but Nadal all day in my opinion

[laker5]

both players want this badly, and at this case Nadal should manage the game

no play for me, but Nadal all day in my opinion

The post an hour ago where you expressed your opinion came through just fine.

[dhristov211]

thank you!!!

If you aren't as confident in Federer may I suggest him to win the first set as that'll probably he his priority this match to get the leg up as much as a good starter Nadal is I can see Federer coming out of the blocks hungrier.

[hedgejob]

Congrats on a great tourney.

[gorwin068]

Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, Final
Roger Federer vs Rafael Nadal
Moneyline: Roger Federer @ 2.16 on Pinnacle
Stake: $148.04 for a profit of $171.73

Early on we may probably get an indication of how this match has pointed out. From every news clipping and press conference I've read it seems that Roger Federer looks like he wants this one badly and that he acknowledges he let some of those losses against Nadal earlier in his career which makes him play a certain way then he wants too.
We have seen Federer beat Nadal. We have seen how dominant Federer can be over Nadal when he is allowed to play the way he wants to against him, less shorter points, not spending 90% of the time parked on the left hand corner of the court hitting backhands to Nadal.
So in this instance I think enough time has passed by for Federer to approach this match with a clean slate, to play to win this match, rather not to lose it. And I think this court and what he has been able to do on this court will allow that.
Maybe not as physical as Dimitrov but technically better he still looks fit and ready to go. I think for old times sake he has the last laugh like all great Champions do.

Congrats again Jeff...

[Jeff_Black]

Congrats on a great tourney.

Thanks !

Congrats again Jeff...

Thanks!

thank you!!!

All good, not counting that to any sort of record though because I didn't wager on it, just felt it could happen with the match flow and just fortunate enough that it did. Would have felt more bad if it didn't get up. I normally hate suggesting leans and stuff along those lines but for those that potentially wanted something a little quicker... :P


So what can I say about that final...my goodness. If that was Federer's last slam win even if he has a loss here or there well then I can live with that. The man rose to the occasion.
It was actually his presser clips about having not played Rafa in that sort of environment in a while that got me thinking how much of an advantage that could be to Federer and whether or not he would learn from his losses. Because it seemed that he had and did not play the same way he did in his previous AO losses.
I have never seen him so aggressive on the backhand and I think the big reason why he won tonight is why he won a lot of his matches against Nadal was because he was a lot of the time allowed to play the way he wanted to, and not the way Nadal wanted him to (to play into his hands kind of thing).
Sure there were some times where Nadal tried his old tactic with hit and miss results but I seriously think this was won on Federer's racquet and also importantly with his ability to hold serve when needed. I actually thought the not converting break points could be his old enemy this time around but he did enough in some of those amazing rallies to break through. The UE did not bother me because Federer was trying to go for it at times and sometimes missed which was ok but remembering the games from back in the day if he did it any other way he would have lost and Nadal would have grinded out another win.
To win 5 straight games against Nadal in the fifth set is something else...

[Jeff_Black]

Moneyline: Roger Federer @ 2.16 on Pinnacle (+$171.73)

YTD: 59-47-6 (+$1175.82)
Bankroll: $3132.63

Only WTA events during the week, and with the Davis Cup being on the weekend following being the reason for no mens tournaments i'll be spending the week keeping up with Davis Cup team news while enjoying a nice short break in the meantime.

And hopefully some tips for those rubbers in the meantime when there is more team info out.

Till then, enjoy Federer's #18th!

[Jeff_Black]

ITF Davis Cup, Mens Singles, Round 1
Jiri Vesely vs Jordan Thompson
Total Score: Under 41 @ 1.934 on Pinnacle
Stake: $156.63 for a profit of $146.29

[Jeff_Black]

Total Score: Under 41 @ 1.934 on Pinnacle (+$146.29)

YTD: 60-47-6 (+$1322.81)
Bankroll: $3278.92

Pretty good first up Davis Cup from the kid, wasn't sure who would win but figured it wouldn't be a long one with the way these guys play and how breaking serves should be common.

[xdodger19]

good call

[Jeff_Black]

good call

Thanks, looked easy. Didn't expect Thompson to win it in three though.

ITF Davis Cup, Mens Singles, Round 1
Japan vs France
Yoshihito Nishioka vs Gilles Simon
Set Handicap: Gilles Simon -2.5 Sets @ 1.925 on Pinnacle
Stake: $163.95 for a profit of $151.65

[Jeff_Black]

ITF Davis Cup, Men's Singles, R1
Germany vs Belgium
Philipp Kohlscriebber vs Steve Darcis
Handicap: Philipp Kohlscriebber -5.5 @ 1.99 on Pinnacle
Stake: $171.53 for a profit of $169.81

[Jeff_Black]

ITF Davis Cup, Mens Singles, R1
Canada vs Great Britain
Denis Shapovalov vs Dan Evans
Handicap: Denis Shapovalov +6 @ 1.862 on Pinnacle
Stake: $171.53 for a profit of $147.86

ITF Davis Cup, Mens Singles, R1
Italy vs Argentina
Fabio Fognini vs Carlos Berlocq
Total Score: Under 38 games @ 1.925 on Pinnacle
Stake: $171.53 for a profit of $158.67

[Jeff_Black]

Set Handicap: Gilles Simon -2.5 Sets @ 1.925 on Pinnacle (+$151.65)
Handicap: Philipp Kohlscriebber -5.5 @ 1.99 on Pinnacle (-$171.53)
Handicap: Denis Shapovalov +6 @ 1.862 on Pinnacle (-171.53)
Total Score: Under 38 games @ 1.925 on Pinnacle ($0)



YTD: 61-49-7 (+$1131.4)
Bankroll: $3087.51

[Jeff_Black]

Some reason Pinnacle hasn't got the latest tournaments showing up on my browser so quoting WH prices here.

ATP Montpellier 250, Open Sud de France, Mens Singles, R1
Illya Marchenko vs Quentin Halys
Moneyline: Quentin Halys @ 1.80 on William Hill
Stake: $154.38 for a profit of $123.50

ATP Quito 250, Ecuador Open, Mens Singles, R1
Agustin Velotti vs Matthew Ebden
Handicap: Agustin Velotti -3.5 @ 1.85 on William Hill
Stake: $154.38 for a profit of $131.22

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Montpellier 250, Open Sud de France, Mens Singles
Futures/Outrights Markets
To Win the Tournament: Richard Gasquet @ 5.00 on Bet365
Stake: $154.38 for a profit of $617.50

So I've had a look through the draw, previous winners, previous tournament experience, court form, current form and I like this bet at slightly smaller odds.
He has a good draw even drawn to the no #1 seed Marin Cilic who will have a tough match in his next round playing against Benoit Paire or Feliciano Lopez, both players who like the indoors and faster surfaces where Cilic is slightly weaker. Even if he has to play him in the QF, I think he can beat him. And the indoors surface at home where he has won 3 times will favour him.
There seems to be a few newer faces at the tournament this time around and I think that will also suit him considering he has played here for the last several years losing to Monfils in the final of 2014.

On the other side of the draw there are heavyweights Tsonga, and young and up and comer Zverev who Im not sure how he will fancy this surface. Tsonga also isn't a big achiever here but as the no #2 seed and a heavy favourite it's hard not to respect him but those odds are obviously too short for him to be taken. There is also Paul Henri Mathieu, also a dangerous French man in the draw @ 67.00 on some books isn't too bad of a small stake having made a final here recently but other then playing Tsonga, IMO Gasquet can beat anyone in this draw this week.

[Jeff_Black]

I'm not normally a fan of doing newer tournament outrights because of the smaller sample sizes but anyone who's looked have any thoughts on Bautista as an outright winner there?
Already won one title and interesting to know if he can go back to back, that said the draw this year is tougher.
Can get 7s on some books and I like his draw with Goffin there.

Dimitrov in form, and Thiem on the other side who I'm off a bit.

[Jeff_Black]

Moneyline: Quentin Halys @ 1.80 on William Hill (-$154.38)
Handicap: Agustin Velotti -3.5 @ 1.85 on William Hill (-$154.38)


YTD: 61-51-7 (+$822.64)
Bankroll: $2778.75


ATP Montpellier 250, Open Sud de France, Mens Singles, R1
Tristan Lamasine vs Malek Jaziri
Handicap: Malek Jaziri -3 @ 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: $138.94 for a profit of $126.29

ATP Montpellier 250, Open Sud de France, Mens Singles, R1
Paul Henri-Matheui vs Vincent Millot
Handicap: Paul Henri-Matheui -2 @ 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: $138.94 for a profit of $131.02

ATP Sofia 250, Garanti Koza Sofia Open, Mens Singles, R1
Damir Dzhumir vs Andreas Seppi
Moneyline: Andreas Seppi @ 2.11 on Pinnacle
Stake: $138.94 for a profit of $154.22

ATP Sofia 250, Garanti Koza Sofia Open, Mens Singles, R1
Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino
Handicap: Adrian Mannarino -3.5 @ 1.813 on Pinnacle
Stake: $138.94 for a profit of $112.96

[Jeff_Black]

Handicap: Malek Jaziri -3 @ 1.909 on Pinnacle (-$138.94)
Handicap: Paul Henri-Matheui -2 @ 1.943 on Pinnacle (+$131.02)
Moneyline: Andreas Seppi @ 2.11 on Pinnacle (+$154.22)
Handicap: Adrian Mannarino -3.5 @ 1.813 on Pinnacle (-$138.94)


YTD: 63-53-7 (+$830.00)
Bankroll: $2786.11


ATP Quito 250, Ecuador Open, Mens Singles, R16
Alejandro Falla vs Albert Ramos Vinolas
Handicap: Alejandro Falla +4 @ 2.04 on Pinnacle
Stake: $139.51 for a profit of $144.88

[Lightning]

Haven't been on here for a awhile, but was reading through your plays and saw you took Velotti -3.5 as well against Ebden. Still not entirely sure how he lost that ahaha

[Jeff_Black]

Haven't been on here for a awhile, but was reading through your plays and saw you took Velotti -3.5 as well against Ebden. Still not entirely sure how he lost that ahaha

Yeah I almost couldn't believe it. Clay court specialist who plays a lot of his matches on clay against Ebden, who like most of the 2nd tier Aussie guys don't really and he loses, ugh.

At least the other positive is Cilic being out of Montpellier which helps Gasquet's side of the draw, that said he has drawn some French guys too who have been playing well here. Wouldnt surprise me if he played Tsonga, just couldn't back Tsonga with his lack of experience here.

Handicap: Alejandro Falla +4 @ 2.04 on Pinnacle (-$139.51)


YTD: 63-54-7 (+$690.49)
Bankroll: $2646.60

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Sofia 250, Garanti Koza Sofia Open, Mens Singles, QF
Gilles Muller vs Roberto Bautista Agut
Handicap: Gilles Muller +2.5 @ 1.73 on William Hill
Stake: $132.33 for a profit of $96.60

[Jeff_Black]

Also for those of us who live on other parts of the globe, here in Australia it is 50degrees in some places and 40+ in many so if we do not feel like powering up our computers to do research and post our tips you'll understand :P