2017 Tennis Season Thread, Picks, Discussion and everything else by Yours Truly

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Marrakech 250, Grand Prix Hassan II, Mens Singles, SF
Jiri Vesely vs Borna Coric
Total Score: Over 22.5 Games @ 2.00 on Pinnacle
Stake: $172.65 for a profit of $172.65

ATP Marrakech 250, Grand Prix Hassan II, Mens Singles, SF
Benoit Paire vs Philipp Kohlscriebber
Total Score: Over 22.5 Games @ 1.99 on Pinnacle
Stake: $172.65 for a profit of $170.92

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Monte Carlo 1000, Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters, Qualifiers
Sergiy Stakhovsky vs Dusan Lajovic
Handicap: Sergiy Stakhovsky +3.5 @ 1.892 on Pinnacle
Stake: $172.65 for a profit of $154

ATP Monte Carlo 1000, Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters, Qualifiers
Jan-Lennard Struff vs Paul Henri Mathieu
Handicap: Jan-Lennard Struff -2.5 @ 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: $172.65 for a profit of $164.36

[pabonaparte]

Thank me when I am posting more winners! :P
YTD: 82-76-11 (+$352.18)
Bankroll: $2259.07

Three weeks and an extra thousand in the bank later, I thank you again!

[Jeff_Black]

Haha all good, now I can accept praise!

But that said I am the type of guy who if I had a good day goin 3-1 or even 4-1 I will still whinge about that one that didn't get up whether I second guessed myself or whether the player could have tried harder to get my bet up!

[pabonaparte]

In no way implying I am a seasoned/disciplined gambler, I am slowly learning to accept the fact that randomness plays a far larger role in life, and in sports, than my little brain likes to accept. Good luck with what you do, and good luck with maintaining inner balance that allows you to stay young and avoid emotional scars during bad streaks. It's far too easy to lose one's balance with a hobby/occupation like this!

[Jeff_Black]

In no way implying I am a seasoned/disciplined gambler, I am slowly learning to accept the fact that randomness plays a far larger role in life, and in sports, than my little brain likes to accept. Good luck with what you do, and good luck with maintaining inner balance that allows you to stay young and avoid emotional scars during bad streaks. It's far too easy to lose one's balance with a hobby/occupation like this!

Hmmm good way to put it, Comes down to two things I've learnt: There are times when you will win, and there are times when you will lose. Everything else is under ones control I think. I'd be interested to hear what other people do when they are going well, or when they aren't going well.
Do you take a break or keep playing the same amount of plays each day and hope it turns around? Obviously there will be days without much tennis depending on which markets one bets on. So if you hit a bad run at the end of the tournament and theres a break before a slam or davis cup do people get tempted to dig into challengers low key womens events?
I find those break periods are absolutely the best time to not think about betting, read up on the tennis news and just enjoy not being on the grind of capping it.
If one has a bankroll/staking system even when they take a hit or are losing they shouldn't be going bust and losing all their money.

So like you said, the inner balance may be the biggest key to ones success. I guess the perfectionist in me means I don't get complacent or slacken off when I'm doing well or I don't let emotions/excuses get in the way when I'm losing. We would all love to be winning consistently all the time year long but it just does not happen that way. Just accept it happens the way it does and move on.
I think I am aiming to try and enjoy the wins more then I usually do and take credit and notice when I'm reading the odds/lines/games well.

Anyway there's my 2 cents :P

ATP Houston 250, Fayez Sarofim & Co. US Mens Clay Court Championship, Mens Singles, SF
Tomaz Belluci vs Ernesto Escobedo
Handicap: Ernesto Escobedo +3 @ 1.862 on Pinnacle
Stake: $172.65 for a profit of $148.82

ATP Houston 250, Fayez Sarofim & Co. US Mens Clay Court Championship, Mens Singles, SF
Jack Sock vs Steve Johnson
Handicap: Steve Johnson +3.5 @ 1.847 on Pinnacle
Stake: $172.65 for a profit of $146.23

[Jeff_Black]

Total Score: Over 22.5 Games @ 2.00 on Pinnacle (-$172.65)
Total Score: Over 22.5 Games @ 1.99 on Pinnacle (-$172.65)

Handicap: Sergiy Stakhovsky +3.5 @ 1.892 on Pinnacle (+$154)
Handicap: Jan-Lennard Struff -2.5 @ 1.952 on Pinnacle (+$164.36)

Handicap: Ernesto Escobedo +3 @ 1.862 on Pinnacle (-$172.65)
Handicap: Steve Johnson +3.5 @ 1.847 on Pinnacle (+146.23)


YTD: 104-88-13 (+$1,492.75)
Bankroll: $3,396.58

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Marrakech 250, Grand Prix Hassan II, Mens Singles, Final
Philipp Kohlscriebber vs Borna Coric
Set Handicap: Philipp Kohlscriebber -1.5 sets @ 2.27 on Pinnacle
Stake: $169.83 for a profit of $216.38

ATP Houston 250, Fayez Sarofim & Co. US Mens Clay Court Championship, Mens Singles, Final
Steve Johnson vs Tomaz Belluci
Handicap: Steve Johnson -2.5 @ 2.00 on Pinnacle
Stake: $169.83 for a profit of $169.83

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Monte Carlo 1000, Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters, Qualifiers
Damir Dzuhmir vs Guillermo Garcia Lopez
Handicap: Guillermo Garcia Lopez +2 @ 1.862 on Pinnacle
Stake: $169.83 for a profit of $146.39

ATP Monte Carlo 1000, Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters, R1
Florian Mayer vs Joao Sousa
Handicap: Florian Mayer +4.5 @ 2.02 on Pinnacle
Stake: $169.83 for a profit of $173.23

ATP Monte Carlo 1000, Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters, R1
Steve Darcis vs David Goffin
Handicap: Steve Darcis +5 @ 2.02 on Pinnacle
Stake: $169.83 for a profit of $173.23

ATP Monte Carlo 1000, Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters, R1
Gilles Simon vs Malek Jaziri
Handicap: Malek Jaziri +3.5 @ 1.90 on Pinnacle
Stake: $169.83 for a profit of $152.85

[Jeff_Black]

Set Handicap: Philipp Kohlscriebber -1.5 sets @ 2.27 on Pinnacle (-$169.83)
Handicap: Steve Johnson -2.5 @ 2.00 on Pinnacle (-$169.83)
Handicap: Guillermo Garcia Lopez +2 @ 1.862 on Pinnacle (+$146.39)
Handicap: Florian Mayer +4.5 @ 2.02 on Pinnacle (-$169.83)
Handicap: Steve Darcis +5 @ 2.02 on Pinnacle (-$169.83)
Handicap: Malek Jaziri +3.5 @ 1.90 on Pinnacle (-$169.83)

YTD: 105-93-13 (+$789.99)
Bankroll: $2,701.02


Lots of red today, not..good..enough

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Monte Carlo 1000, Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters, R2
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman vs Roberto Bautista Agut
Total Score: Over 21.5 Games @ 1.917 on Pinnacle
Stake: $135.05 for a profit of $123.84

ATP Monte Carlo 1000, Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters, R2
Dominic Thiem vs Robin Haase
Handicap: Robin Haase +4.5 @ 1.892 on Pinnacle
Stake: $135.05 for a profit of $120.47

ATP Monte Carlo 1000, Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters, R2
Marin Cilic vs Jeremy Chardy
Total Score: Over 22 Games @ 1.862 on Pinnacle
Stake: $135.05 for a profit of $116.41

[Jeff_Black]

Total Score: Over 21.5 Games @ 1.917 on Pinnacle (+$123.84)
Handicap: Robin Haase +4.5 @ 1.892 on Pinnacle (-$135.05)
Total Score: Over 22 Games @ 1.862 on Pinnacle (-$135.05)

YTD: 106-95-13 (+$643.73)
Bankroll: $2,554.76

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Monte Carlo 1000, Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters, QF
Albert Ramos Vinolas vs Marin Cilic
Handicap: Albert Ramos Vinolas +3 @ 2.06 on Pinnacle
Stake: $135.40 for a profit of $143.53

ATP Monte Carlo 1000, Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters, QF
David Goffin vs Novak Djokovic
Handicap: David Goffin +4 @ 1.952 on Pinnace
Stake: $135.40 for a profit of $128.93

ATP Monte Carlo 1000, Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters, QF
Pablo Cuevas vs Lucas Pouille
Handicap: Lucas Pouille +2 @ 2.01 on Pinnacle
Stake: $135.40 for a profit of $136.75

[Conqueror]

The Cuevas/Pouille line is still a mystery to me. Yes, Cuevas is a clay-cutter, but I'd expect Monsieur Pouille to be the favorite here. I'm not carried away by Cuevas' win over Wawrinka.

[Jeff_Black]

Yeah I'm on the same line of thinking, seen Pouille do some dodgies this year but as a dog I like it

[JerseyGodFather]

Tailed goffin +4

[gorwin068]

ATP Monte Carlo 1000, Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters, QF
Albert Ramos Vinolas vs Marin Cilic
Handicap: Albert Ramos Vinolas +3 @ 2.06 on Pinnacle
Stake: $135.40 for a profit of $143.53

ATP Monte Carlo 1000, Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters, QF
David Goffin vs Novak Djokovic
Handicap: David Goffin +4 @ 1.952 on Pinnace
Stake: $135.40 for a profit of $128.93

ATP Monte Carlo 1000, Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters, QF
Pablo Cuevas vs Lucas Pouille
Handicap: Lucas Pouille +2 @ 2.01 on Pinnacle
Stake: $135.40 for a profit of $136.75

Good call man, all three picks are green
I should have tailed Goffin but I felt asleep lol...Djoker has no heart in tennis...and probably scared to be punished by Nadal in semi-final

[Jeff_Black]

Cheers. He had a pretty nasty fall during the game where play had to be stopped because he had to wash the dirt off his hands and knees but from what I have seen no one has been a clear stand out here, even Nadal. He had no points to defend from last years tournament so was hard to see how motivated he was but a pretty rusty start for his first clay event.

Handicap: Albert Ramos Vinolas +3 @ 2.06 on Pinnacle (+$143.53)
Handicap: David Goffin +4 @ 1.952 on Pinnace (+$128.93)
Handicap: Lucas Pouille +2 @ 2.01 on Pinnacle (+$136.75)

YTD: 109-95-13 (+$1052.94)
Bankroll: $2953.97

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Monte Carlo 1000, Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters, Mens Singles, SF
Lucas Pouille vs Albert Ramos Vinolas
Handicap: Albert Ramos Vinolas +1.5 @ 2.02 on Pinnacle
Stake: $148.20 for a profit of $151.16

ATP Monte Carlo 1000, Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters, Mens Singles, SF
Rafael Nadal vs David Goffin
Handicap: David Goffin +4.5 @ 2.08 on Pinnacle
Stake: $148.20 for a profit of $160.06

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Barcelona 500, Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell, Mens Singles, Qualifiers
Hyeon Chung vs Ernests Gulbis
Handicap: Ernests Gulbis +2.5 @ 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: $155.76 for a profit of $146.88

[Jeff_Black]

Handicap: Albert Ramos Vinolas +1.5 @ 2.02 on Pinnacle (+$151.16)
Handicap: David Goffin +4.5 @ 2.08 on Pinnacle (-$148.76)
Handicap: Ernests Gulbis +2.5 @ 1.943 on Pinnacle (-$146.88)

YTD: 110-97-13 (+$908.37)
Bankroll: $2658.33

ATP Monte Carlo 1000, Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters, Mens Singles, Fina
Rafael Nadal vs Albert Ramos Vinolas
Handicap: Albert Ramos Vinolas +5.5 @ 2.04 on Pinnacle
Stake: $132.92 for a profit of $138.23

[pabonaparte]

Rafael is playing so much better on the weekend.

[Jeff_Black]

Rafael is playing so much better on the weekend.

He was too good against Ramos unfortunately, that said...
I have to admit (and I normally don't like to), but I am a bit salty on 'that call', but hey sometimes it works in ones favour at times. That call against Goffin was probably one of the worst I have seen in some time.
I know players have to move on, and some people philosophically believe the calls even out in your career, you'll get good ones and bad ones but at the end of the day players are human too and when you know you've won a point only to have to replay it I can understand why Goffin argued with the umpire that much.
It was just so unfortunate for him

That said, that was last week, this was this week. Wanted to get that off my chest and I'm sure a lot of tennis fans felt for Goffin even without money on the game.

Nadal should know that feeling. Remember a few years (maybe 2010 or something) he played Murray in a Shanghai Semi Final and the exact same thing happened to him. Nadal was filthy and verbal about it, a call he knew was out which should have been a double fault to Murray, that would have been a break to Nadal (memory is not all there but someone feel free to correct me if they remember better)
When Murray held it seemed like a smooth sailing match for him but I definitely felt the call affected Nadal at the time.

[Jeff_Black]

Handicap: Albert Ramos Vinolas +5.5 @ 2.04 on Pinnacle (-$132.92)

YTD: 110-98-13 (+$775.45)
Bankroll: $2525.41

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Barcelona 500, Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell, Mens Singles, R1
Bernard Tomic vs Dustin Brown
Set Handicap: Dustin Brown -1.5 sets @ 2.40 on Pinnacle
Stake: $126.27 for a profit of $176.78

ATP Barcelona 500, Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell, Mens Singles, R1
Karen Khachanov vs Tomaz Belluci
Moneyline: Tomaz Belluci @ 2.11 on Pinnacle
Stake: $126.27 for a profit of $140.16

ATP Barcelona 500, Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell, Mens Singles, R1
Renzo Olivo vs Rogerio Dutra Silva
Total Score: Over 22 games @ 1.847 on Pinnacle
Stake: $126.27 for a profit of $106.95

[Buffalo Nickle]

Rafael is playing so much better on the weekend.

Could use a payment pabonaparte for your loan. Thanks for moving your points to Sportsbook when I sent you a PM.

[Conqueror]

JB,

There're so many games today. Please post something.

[pabonaparte]

JB,
There're so many games today. Please post something.

Would you not rather get his winners tomorrow, than 'something' today?

[Jeff_Black]

JB, There're so many games today. Please post something.

Haha it's a year long grind, can't burn myself out too early winning and losing within the space of a week!
Besides last year this exact week I went hot so I am hoping it pays off cutting short last week and going for it this week again. Sometimes you feel it, other times you don't. We'll see...

Set Handicap: Dustin Brown -1.5 sets @ 2.40 on Pinnacle (-$126.27)
Moneyline: Tomaz Belluci @ 2.11 on Pinnacle (-$126.27)
Total Score: Over 22 games @ 1.847 on Pinnacle (-$126.27)

YTD: 110-101-13 (+$396.64)
Bankroll: $2146.60

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Estoril 250, Millennium Estoril Open, Mens Singles, R1
Yuichi Sugita vs Juan Martin Del Potro
Handicap: Yuichi Sugita +6 @ 1.757 on Pinnacle
Stake: $107.33 for a profit of $81.25

ATP Estoril 250, Millennium Estoril Open, Mens Singles, R1
Paul Henri Mathieu vs Pedro Sousa
Handicap: Pedro Sousa +2 @ 1.925 on Pinnacle
Stake: $107.33 for a profit of $99.28

ATP Munich 250, BMW Open by FWU, Mens Singles, R1
Maximillian Marterer vs Hyeoun Chung
Handicap: Maximillian Marterer +3.5 @ 1.884 on Pinnacle
Stake: $107.33 for a profit of $94.88

[Conqueror]

Nice to see you back in action.

[Jeff_Black]

Nice to see you back in action.

And hopefully some good fortune that follows

Handicap: Yuichi Sugita +6 @ 1.757 on Pinnacle (-$107.33)
Handicap: Pedro Sousa +2 @ 1.925 on Pinnacle ($0)
Handicap: Maximillian Marterer +3.5 @ 1.884 on Pinnacle (+$94.88)

YTD: 111-102-14 (+$384.19)
Bankroll: $2134.15

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Estoril 250, Millennium Estoril Open, Mens Singles, R2
Gastao Elias vs Nicolas Almagro
Handicap: Gastao Elias +3 @ 2.02 on Pinnacle
Stake: $106.71 for a profit of $108.84

ATP Estoril 250, Millennium Estoril Open, Mens Singles, R2
Tommy Robredo vs Pablo Carreno-Busta
Handicap: Tommy Robredo +4.5 @ 1.847 on Pinnacle
Stake: $106.71 for a profit of $90.38

ATP Estoril 250, Millennium Estoril Open, Mens Singles, R2
Pedro Sousa vs Gilles Muller
Handicap: Pedro Sousa +2.5 @ 2.03 on Pinnacle
Stake: $106.71 for a profit of $109.91

ATP Istanbul 250, TEB PNB Paribas Istanbul Open, Mens Singles, R2
Marin Cilic vs Damir Dzuhmir
Handicap: Damir Dzhumir +4.5 @ 1.877 on Pinnacle
Stake: $106.71 for a profit of $93.58

ATP Istanbul 250, TEB PNB Paribas Istanbul Open, Mens Singles, R2
Milos Raonic vs Aljaz Bedene
Handicap: Aljaz Bedene +3.5 @ 1.833 on Pinnacle
Stake: $106.71 for a profit of $$88.89

[Jeff_Black]

Handicap: Gastao Elias +3 @ 2.02 on Pinnacle (-$106.71)
Handicap: Tommy Robredo +4.5 @ 1.847 on Pinnacle (+$90.38)
Handicap: Damir Dzhumir +4.5 @ 1.877 on Pinnacle (-$106.71)
Handicap: Aljaz Bedene +3.5 @ 1.833 on Pinnacle (+$88.89)

YTD: 113-104-14 (+$350.04)
Bankroll: $2100

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Estoril 250, Millennium Estoril Open, Mens Singles, R2
David Ferrer vs Federico Ferreira Silva
Handicap: Federico Ferreria Silva +5.5 @ 1.99 on Pinnacle
Stake: $105 for a profit of $103.95

ATP Istanbul 250, TEB PNB Paribas Istanbul Open, Mens Singles, R2
Karen Khanchanov vs Viktor Troicki
Handicap: Viktor Troicki +3 @ 1.90 on Pinnacle
Stake: $105 for a profit of $94.5

ATP Munich 250, BMW Open by FWU, Mens Singles, R2
Horacio Zebbalos vs Philipp Kohlscriebber
Set Handicap: Philipp Kohlscriebber -1.5 sets @ 1.763 on Pinnacle
Stake: $105 for a profit of $80.12