EP36's Tennis Talk

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-31-10, 12:33 PM

Chela is about done. Disappointing because Starace hasn't really been that great, but he's done a better job of converting break points. Chela is 3 of 17 and Starace is 6 of 9. Gotta favor whomever wins between JCF & Seppi to take the title over either one of these jokers. Hoping for JCF personally.

**limitation** · 07-31-10, 12:48 PM

Good chance JCF / Seppi match going 3 sets? It seems like JCF has better talent although it's hard to judge his form giving that Dolgo completely gave up on that match. EP, what do you think of Tipsy chance?

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-31-10, 01:43 PM

I think Tipsarevic has a legit shot to win straight up today. Querrey has not looked real good in this tournament, but has done just enough or maybe more appropriately let his opponent do just enough to lose. He'll have to serve well again, but Querrey's serve has been pretty average this week.

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-31-10, 01:50 PM

STOSUR-AZARENKA OVER 22 [-108]
Good match-up in the Stanford semis. Stosur has yet to crack Azarenka in three career meetings, but it should be noted that since her real break-out during the middle of last year - they have not met, so this time could be different. Azarenka did a nice job to take out defending champ Bartoli yesterday. She pounded Bartoli's 2nd serve mercilessly and that led to a lot of points for her. She won't have an easy time today though with the more powerful serve of Stosur. Stosur prevailed in three sets against Wickmayer yesterday. Her serve has been steady enough so far, but will need even more to get her a shot to win today. Their previous encounters only had one real competitive match, I think that changes today with both in pretty good form here.

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-31-10, 01:56 PM

Dancevic retires. Didn't watch, so wondering if it's his back again that he had surgery on last year. He played horribly in the 1st set, losing 6-2 so I'm guessing it could have been his back since the stats show his serve was not great and he didn't get many return points either.

**limitation** · 07-31-10, 01:59 PM

JCF owning this match. Need Seppi to come back at least otherwise our over is in danger.

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-31-10, 01:59 PM

Fade me hard. Seppi broken again in the 2nd and JCF is probably gonna take control and finish this off in under 22 games. Blah day thus far.

**beefcake** · 07-31-10, 05:16 PM

I so much want to take Lopez +4.5 tonight.Convince me otherwise EP

**Goat Milk** · 07-31-10, 05:29 PM

Originally posted by beefcake

I so much want to take Lopez +4.5 tonight.Convince me otherwise EP

Take the over 20.5. Murray is gonna make another early exit at the US Open with those weak groundstrokes. Lopez should be able to take advantage today.

**jojo85** · 07-31-10, 06:03 PM

tipsarevic choking a 5-1 lead in the 2nd tiebreak.. can't believe Querreys luck...

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-31-10, 06:14 PM

I like Lopez +4.5, but of course I am o-fer on the day in tennis, so there ya go. I figured he'd lose something like 7-5, 6-4 or 7-6, 6-3 would work too.

**limitation** · 07-31-10, 06:55 PM

Wow, I can't believe Tipsy is gonna choke away after winning the first set and leading in first set. I stayed away from picking him after going 0-4 for on tennis earlier today.

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-31-10, 06:57 PM

I just rode the Querrey future I have, hoping he might win. He's served a lot better today. Tipsarevic has played really well here, probably deserves better than to lose if he does.

Querrey prevails again, somehow, some way.

**limitation** · 07-31-10, 07:00 PM

EP, what are your thoughts on the match between Murray and Lopez? Obviously, Murray is a huge favorite and if he doesn't screw around, he should win it easy right? Or do you think Lopez has a good chance to put up a fight to drag out the match somewhat?

**beefcake** · 07-31-10, 07:05 PM

Jesus fing christ tippy,first tennis match ive watched 100% the way thru this year and tippy pulls a Big BONER,

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-31-10, 09:21 PM

Doing the math again. Radwanksa-Sharapova. Maria showed her problematic service games again last night with 15 double faults. Ag-Rad matches okay with Sharapova, having won a set in 3 of the 5 head-2-heads despite being 1-4 overall against her. I think both have inconsistencies right now that could result in some momentum swings from set to set. Books have the match to end in 3 sets at +150, but I'll go math on 'em.

Sharapova to win in 3 [+313]
Radwanksa to win in 3 [+498]

Unit on each, profit if it goes 3 is either +213 or +398 ... compared to +150. We'll see how this works out, probably be a 2 setter with how I've been working today.

**limitation** · 07-31-10, 10:02 PM

Oh man, Murray is just schooling Lopez. This game will finish in 2 sets easy.

**limitation** · 07-31-10, 10:03 PM

Radwanksa has good chance to win this match. Sharapova is being double fault machine.

**limitation** · 07-31-10, 10:51 PM

Well Murray pissed away in second set and Lopez came back somehow. But, it looks like Murray has this under control now for third set. EP, Good call on that betting both of them to win at 2-1. Sure way to make profit now since the match is going into third set.

**shari91** · 07-31-10, 10:55 PM

Great call on the women's crapfest!! I made some money by tailing you at the last second.

**Cappinpicks** · 07-31-10, 11:03 PM

pova wins, can't beat chalk

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-01-10, 12:36 AM

Yeah at least that last one helped me get back about 40% of the losses on the others from the suckfest of picks I put out on Saturday.

**Sadgasm** · 08-01-10, 01:29 AM

whats the feeling on gasquet vs. almargo... seems up in the air?

what was the date and type of court that almargo beat him?

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-01-10, 01:31 AM

GSTAAD DOUBLES PLAY: MELO-SOARES [-130]
The two Brazilians have the advantage of being regular partners, while Nieminen and Brunstrom teamed up for the first time this tournament. Certainly they have proven to be solid as they took out top seeded Moodie & Norman. Brunstrom though is here without his normal partner, Rojer. Together that partnership has made six doubles finals in the past three years. The big number, ZERO titles in those six tries. Nieminen does actually have some doubles titles to his credit, but I'll side with the experienced team in finals situations here in Melo & Soares who have ten doubles titles between them.

Also doing the math for the Men's Final. Gasquet has some troubling numbers in his last two matches here where he's not won a whole lot more points than his opponents, despite two pretty straight forward straight sets wins. That means he's working hard for some points on-serve. Almagro has also been up & down this week, so the feeling here is this could be another 3 setter.

Gasquet Wins in 3 [+373]
Almagro Wins in 3 [+295]

**Sadgasm** · 08-01-10, 01:41 AM

Also adding to the puzzle, this is almargo's 9th career final and answering my own question, almargo beat gasquet on clay in febuary... sooo far im leaning toward almargo... he had an easy match yesterday and i think he is going to be ready to pawn gasquet again.

**rav_himself** · 08-01-10, 04:06 AM

the value for almagro to win in 3 just dropped like a maaafucka
this could be the play..
i'm takin both players in 3 just to be safe..

GL EP

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 08-01-10, 08:42 AM

I think Gasquet was injured there - great serving by Almagro though, 17 aces on clay in a short match.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-01-10, 09:43 AM

Another fine start to the day. 0 for 3. I'm done until tomorrow. Doubles lost 11-9 in the super break, blah. Gotta figure out how to hedge the Querrey future.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-01-10, 10:59 AM

I am an iceberg, fade accordingly.

PARLAY: CERMAK-MERTINAK + KAMKE (Granby Challenger) [+137]
Cermak & Mertinak are the defending Umag doubles champions, so they get a leg up today in the final against Cermak's former partner Friedl & his new partner Polasek. It's an interesting match-up with the history of Cermak & Friedly who won 13 doubles titles together. Since they stopped playing together back in 2007 though, Cermak has gone on to team with Mertinak for five titles. Polasek & Friedly had only teamed up once prior to this week's tournament and they seem to be on a good run. They KO'ed Petzschner & Melzer, but both may have been ready to leave Croatia after crashing out in singles. Going with experience here. In Granby, home-standing Canadian Milos Raonic gets his first shot to win a title at any level I believe. Tobias Kamke though has been very solid this year and will be looking for his first title as well. He's 0 for 2 in title matches in 2010, but this will be his best chance against a less experience player at this stage in tournaments.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-01-10, 01:23 PM

Mr.Freeze has left the building. Hope you guys have a winning afternoon. I suck hard here to finish the week. Doubles play loses. Couldn't pick a winner to save my life the last two days. Seems like I need to stop betting after Fridays in tennis. Last couple of weekends have been full of bad decisions.

**beefcake** · 08-01-10, 06:19 PM

Ep,5 challengers this week with one starting late tonight in Bejing and 3 others early morning in san marino,kitzbuhl and segovia.2 later tourneys to what looks to be an all day tennis affair in vancouver and Brazil..

Just looking at the draws I notice that Starace has to play a qualie first in san marino in Ciric.After getting the huge paycheck and points in Umag I wonder if he will be dead tired there.Not to say hes going to lose but it is set up perfectly.

Sergeyev after winning saransk opens up vs heliovarra,quite a bit of travel from russia to bejing still.Another situation where a guy might be spent.

In austria...Muster gets anther wild card,home tourney here vs brown..might be worth a shot?

Segovia...Hunta Galung for the big upset? Munoz after losing the challenger has to play King-turner switching from clay to hard,might be a bit difficult since turner being a kiwi,likes the hard stuff..

Brazil..I have nothing..

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-01-10, 06:29 PM

Will take a look when I see some prices. I try not to do a ton on Challengers early though except for maybe those spot plays like you suggest fading previous tournament losers, etc. Like to see how they work through the 1st round or two some times. At least Querrey is gonna punch my +500 future to give me something to smile about after a crappy couple of days.

**beefcake** · 08-01-10, 06:38 PM

nice winner on Sam,does that get you back in the black for the week?

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-01-10, 06:40 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

FUTURES FARMER'S CLASSIC QUERREY +400: I was a little surprised to see Querrey at this long a price considering his draw. He will be tested in his first match by either the tall, lanky Kevin Anderson or Marchenko. But, he is a superior talent. Then it's Zeballos, Ginepri & Schuettler to reach the QFs. Semis could be Baghdatis or Tipsarevic based on seeding. Querrey is 3-0 vs. Baggy. Also considering the top seed hasn't won this event since 2005, Querrey should feel fine about his #2 seed. MALISSE +2500: A significant longshot here in the top of the draw, but I cannot see the point in taking Andy Murray at +110 who became a late wildcard entry for Djokovic here. Murray hasn't played in awhile and those odds suck for anyone who has to win four matches to cash that. Taking a shot on Malisse who has been in a good vein of form over the last couple of months and proved himself decent in Atlanta last week, losing to Roddick. This portion of the draw has Mardy Fish, Gulbis & Felciano Lopez as the seeds along with Murray. Three of those guys haven't played since Wimbledon and the other [Fish] faces a long trip across country + fatigue from playing a long match on Sunday. Malisse gets Sela first and then would face F.Lopez who has not had much hard court success during the U.S. Open series over the past two years. If Fish gets knocked out early, Malisse could conceivably get a shot at the semis here. I think the top part of the draw is open for someone with big odds to make the final. Murray could turn it on and get there. Fish could keep going, but both seem longer shots to make the finals due to form/fatigue issues than their odds offer. Gulbis is another intriguing shot at odds in that portion at +1800. SUISSE OPEN - GSTAAD I am not sure if I will take anything here, but I do like Almagro with his draw in the bottom portion. At +275 though, it's kind of short, but he has little to worry about until the semis and Bellucci likely. Speaking of which, Bellucci might offer better odds at +700. The defending champ has the talent to work his draw, but does draw Chuidinelli in the opener, then Andreev. In the top half, Youzhny is the top seed but sports a poor track record here. Does have a good draw though. Robredo & Golubev are the toughest in his road to the semis. Gasquet or Montanes could give the best odds [+700] in this half. Montanes barely beat Riba in 3 sets here already, but that may have boosted his confidence after he crashed out early last week. Gasquet won this event in 2006 and is set up to meet Montanes in the QFs. I really think whomever wins that match may get to the finals. Youzhny is +500.

I really need to start putting a little something on whatever I map out for these futures. Seems like I've been getting a finalist at least but passed up because of odds or whatever. Trust the gut. Gotta remember to adhere to the signature.

I was in the black I think for the week even after yesterday and today, but it was close. Querrey helped make it a little more on the good side. Was looking bleak too because the only hedge that made sense was Murray 2-1 at over +300 which I did. Thought I was gonna get screwed after Querrey blew the opening set.

**Goat Milk** · 08-01-10, 06:50 PM

Tsonga will be the player to watch this US Open. Murray is weak, he'll never win a slam by playing defense, especially not the US Open, a major reserved for big hitters.