EP36's Tennis Talk

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-03-10, 04:57 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

If Fish is fresh and mostly healthy, he will win IMO.

Whipped Troicki and though I did not see it, looking at the stats it does not appear Fish did anything special to have to win either.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-03-10, 05:47 PM

CHALLENGER PLAYS

LEVY +140
BESTER +172

Hoping to gain the split and profit. Dancevic's hamstring was enough to severely limit him on Saturday at the Granby Challenger where he lost the opening set 6-2 and I think had maybe two return points in that set. Maybe it was something that can be treated quickly, but I'll pay to find out. Levy is having a down year on the Challenger circuit after he won a hard court Challenger last summer and made another semi right around this time. They've met twice, but both were years ago. I think it's going to be apparent early whether or not Dancevic is healthy. If he is, then this is probably a loss, but if the hammy is bothersome, Levy is crafty enough to give himself a shot. Bester in the late match against Lindahl. Bester gets the homecoming as a Canadian who played well in Vancouver last year, while Lindahl comes here after playing qualis in Atlanta and LA. He made the main draw in Atlanta. He has flashes of great play, but shows inconsistencies a lot. Bester should bring his A-game here as he gained a wild card entry into this tournament, so he owes the organizers a good showing. Think he has a legit shot here.

**SRBI** · 08-03-10, 06:16 PM

Istomin is just pure garbage, I jumped on that total over with you cause I didn't think Cilic would pull off a 2-0

Looks like leg 1 of the 2-teamer is in the bag though with Tippy crushing Clement right now

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-03-10, 06:26 PM

Figured Cilic would be rusty and either drop a set or allow Istomin to hang in. About normal for me right now. Win one. Lose two.

**SRBI** · 08-03-10, 06:32 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Figured Cilic would be rusty and either drop a set or allow Istomin to hang in. About normal for me right now. Win one. Lose two.

At least you're not alone on this one, we both lost, so cheer up, just need Isner to cash the parlay for us

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-03-10, 07:09 PM

Dancevic seems to be serving fine at this point, 3-3 against Levy. Guessing he is pretty healthy, so the Levy play is pretty much going to lose I think. Was worth a shot to see about Dancevic's health.

**beefcake** · 08-03-10, 07:27 PM

Riding with ya on Bester

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-03-10, 07:29 PM

Apparently I reversed the curse. Levy has won 4 straight games and is up a break in the 2nd now after taking the 1st, 6-3.

**JNic** · 08-03-10, 07:39 PM

looks like a great call on dancevic, levy already has the break. you think dancevic will be fit for the masters series in canada next week?

**JNic** · 08-03-10, 07:40 PM

wow levy has saved 10/10 break points

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-03-10, 07:48 PM

I bet he'll be close to 100% for that, this was just the case of an injury and then a quick turnaround where he didn't have much recovery time. With a full week off if he loses here, I'd imagine he should be good.

**SRBI** · 08-03-10, 07:58 PM

Isner line dropped from -290 to -235?

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-03-10, 08:03 PM

Isner is last up tonight. It's not scheduled to start until like 10:30pm ET. I think it's after Roddick.

Levy wins in straights.

**SRBI** · 08-03-10, 08:05 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Isner is last up tonight. It's not scheduled to start until like 10:30pm ET. I think it's after Roddick.

Levy wins in straights.

Ahh alright, thanks for the info.

Congrats on Levy

About the Isner/De Baked match, you stickin it out on the parlay or throwin a small chunk on De Bakker?

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-03-10, 08:13 PM

I think it's a good revenge spot for Isner on his preferred surface. de Bakker embarassed him at Wimbledon. Don't know that Isner will do the same to him here, but I think even if he goes for his lazy - stick to the serve and win a tie break mode - he'll come out ahead.

No hedging for me. Isner or bust.

**SRBI** · 08-03-10, 08:23 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

I think it's a good revenge spot for Isner on his preferred surface. de Bakker embarassed him at Wimbledon. Don't know that Isner will do the same to him here, but I think even if he goes for his lazy - stick to the serve and win a tie break mode - he'll come out ahead.

No hedging for me. Isner or bust.

Alright then baws, Isner it is.

**beefcake** · 08-03-10, 10:26 PM

get the coffee on,the Bester match is going to be a while.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-03-10, 11:40 PM

Typical Isner. Two tie breaks. Parlay complete! Feelin' froggy with a late rally after a shite day mostly. Gotta go catch some sleep. Challengers in the morning perhaps, we shall see what lines are out when the alarm clock ruins my day.

**beefcake** · 08-04-10, 12:28 AM

Bester won the first...got broke in the 2nd,but then broke right back! On serve 4-4 in the 2nd..

**SRBI** · 08-04-10, 07:05 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Typical Isner. Two tie breaks. Parlay complete! Feelin' froggy with a late rally after a shite day mostly. Gotta go catch some sleep. Challengers in the morning perhaps, we shall see what lines are out when the alarm clock ruins my day.

Tippy + Isner parlay cashes

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-04-10, 08:13 AM

Bester lost 6-4 in the 3rd set. Good ride for a nice priced dog, he certainly had a shot there - just didn't work out.

**beefcake** · 08-04-10, 08:27 AM

Bastard was up 5-3 in the tie break and had match point serving at 6-5..then blew it..

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-04-10, 08:47 AM

BARROIS-GOERGES UNDER 20.5 [+102]
The hard surface doesn't seem to favor either player particularly as they both have been playing on clay mainly in 2010 with Goerges in the better run of form. Barrois was surprisingly effective on serve yesterday against Meusberger, but piss poor on converting break opportunities [3/17]. She could have easily put that match away in quick fashion with a better conversion rate there. Goerges saved 11/12 breaks opps yesterday in her match and converted 4/8. Both players are a bit short of experience on the indoor surface, but some results from Goerges indicate that she can "power" through and my thinking here is that someone might get this match done in short order. Mind you, I have been ice cold on totals lately.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-04-10, 10:34 AM

Oh My-lanta, that would be a winner? WTF is going on! 6-3, 6-2 Goerges.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-04-10, 10:47 AM

CHALLENGER PLAY

MULLER -120
Muller draws the talented youngster from Lithuania, Ricardas Berankis. Berankis has shown a good all-court game in his young career although grass appears to be his best surface so far. Berankis was solid in his opener, winning over 70% of the points off both his 1st and 2nd serve. Muller looked solid with 17 aces, getting in 71% of his 1st serves as he outlasted Michael Yani. The good news was Muller showed no effects from the back issues that forced him out of the LA event. While Berankis is talented, on hard courts he has yet to consistently show that he can beat the veterans with power games like Muller. Berankis says he didn't play his best in round 1 here, but a sore triceps from an earlier Challenger seemed cleared up. I think if Muller brings his "A" serving game, the youngster will have problems getting to him other than in a tie break situation. Should be a good match, but I side with experience here.

**beefcake** · 08-04-10, 11:00 AM

Nice play.I think Hunta Galung is worth it vs munoz,galung will be riding high after the upset of Granollers.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-04-10, 11:29 AM

Tough to say there, both are clay court types and De La Nava is playing at home. Coin flip, so you got the better price for your guy.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-04-10, 11:51 AM

PARLAY: STOSUR + BAGHDATIS [-168]
The price won't be right for everyone, but these two matches appear fairly straight forward to me. Stosur draws Oudin who simply does not match up well with a power player like Stosur. Stosur beat Oudin on a hard surface to begin the year and at Wimbledon, both in straight sets. Oudin won her opener here in routine fashion, but since her explosion on the scene at the US Open last year, she's struggled with consistency and expectation. She's 25-24 in her matches since this time last season. Stosur meanwhile has continued her solid play, making the QFs at Stanford last week. She is 14-5 on hard courts this season. Baghdatis got his feet wet on the hard stuff last week in LA, winning one and losing to Tipsarevic who played very well. He draws Zeballos who struggled in his opener winning less points that the loser. That is usually a warning sign for the next match. Zeballos will compete on this surface, but as his 3-6 mark shows he just usually isn't good enough to win consistently on the quicker surface.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-04-10, 12:14 PM

SHVEDOVA-PEER OVER 20.5 [-115]
Both players were solid yesterday in winning. Shvedova flashed a powerful serve with 8 aces and rallied nicely for a three set win against Petrova. She allowed just three break points, but only saved one. Peer looked much more like herself on hard courts with the win over Ivanovic, serving well - only allowing one break opportunity. If both serve well, I think this will be a pretty tight battle. Two sets could still get an over done.

**limitation** · 08-04-10, 12:57 PM

EP, do you think Safina @ +158 is a good value bet? I mean she was a former #1 rank player and it seems like she is getting back into groove. Do you like her chances against Radwanska?

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-04-10, 01:05 PM

I've seen several people on her. I think it's not a bad shot. Radwanska is really good on hard courts, but she's far from unbeatable and Safina does have wins over her during their careers.

**bballs84** · 08-04-10, 02:10 PM

Hey Eagle... Do you think Baghdatis will win 2-0 or will zeballos steal one.. Thanks for the help and BOL

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-04-10, 02:35 PM

Total is home for a winner now regardless of the outcome.

I'm a little hesitant to say Baghdatis will win 2-0 because he is still working his way back into shape on this surface and as I said, Zeballos does battle pretty well.

**SRBI** · 08-04-10, 02:39 PM

EP, why don't you save yourself all this work and stress of handicapping a hundred matches per day and instead just put half your bankroll on Tipsy/Querrey over 23 games at -120? It's gonna be a cake-walk, I think.

**bballs84** · 08-04-10, 02:40 PM

Thank you E