EP36's Tennis Talk

newjerseydevils · 07-30-10, 01:56 PM

Fcukin POTATO HEAD Chokin!

newjerseydevils · 07-30-10, 02:03 PM

UP 5-1....and then MR POTATO HEAD FCUKIN almost choked the set away....my -2 is not lookin good...if he doesnt win the second set...the -2 can go down the drain ....what a choke head...sorry eagles just ignore me....im just venting in your thread....i feel more comfortable venting in this thread for some reason

......freakin potato

EaglesPhan36 · 07-30-10, 02:19 PM

Just got back in from lunch. I think Starace needs to finish this in 2. Even though going longer might benefit him and tire Ljubicic, it also gives the crowd a chance to pump the old man up.

newjerseydevils · 07-30-10, 02:21 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Just got back in from lunch. I think Starace needs to finish this in 2. Even though going longer might benefit him and tire Ljubicic, it also gives the crowd a chance to pump the old man up.

yeah im watching the game..the crowd is a big advantage for lubo...they are pumping him up and pissing me off....

...if it goes 3 sets my -2 is done...this game is too stressfull...i should have laid off....potato looks like he wants to choke this set away

EaglesPhan36 · 07-30-10, 02:37 PM

TIPSAREVIC +145
Have to go against one of the guys I like to like in Baghdatis in this spot. Tipsarevic has been pretty solid in two matches in LA albeit against competition that doesn't instill fear on this surface for the most part. Still, he wasn't in the best of form heading in here so he should be brimming with confidence. Baghdatis as one might expect, struggled to start his first match in a month. He dropped the opening set to Sweeting, but then was able to turn it around and win in 3. Baggy has been plagued by injuries and fitness again in 2010 and having to go back-2-back days for the first time in a long time could be asking a lot of him if he's not at his best. 2nd serves are going to be big here because both guys struggle at times to get the 1st serve in. Sweeting did a good job on Baghdatis' 2nd, winning 59% of the points while Tipsarevic has been able to maintain a better than 50% win rate on 2nd serves this week and he's really attacked his opponents' 2nd serve well. No way in my mind that Baghdatis is worth the risk at this price just yet.

Also considering Bartoli at around +180. Azarenka is playing well, but only one person in the last two years has beaten Bartoli at this tournament. Pretty good odds on someone who made the finals two years running and won the title last year.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-30-10, 03:08 PM

Starace beats Old Man River

limitation · 07-30-10, 03:15 PM

EP, Thanks for the pick on Starace. Tail you and made small money on it. Took a gamble and bet on the -2 line.

newjerseydevils · 07-30-10, 03:15 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Starace beats Old Man River

........phew what a close one...thanx for the support eagles....really needed someone to talk to during that match to keep me sane.....that was more of a choke job on the old man than a win by potato head...but ill take it....thanx again bud...really appretiate ur support and insight....i owe someone about a 100 points but after that....ill hit u up with some points....i feel like i owe u....

Goat Milk · 07-30-10, 03:24 PM

Nice one guys. New Jersey you were really sweating it out there for a minute in the tiebreak. nice when those ones go our way.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-30-10, 03:26 PM

At least you were still in decent shape even if he blew the break, you were still at -1, so as long as he would have won in the 3rd set you would have been no worse than a push. Glad it all worked easier than that though!

Querrey f-ing around again and going to a 3rd set. Don't have anything riding but a future on him to win in LA. Double fault machine today, he is.

newjerseydevils · 07-30-10, 03:32 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Nice one guys. New Jersey you were really sweating it out there for a minute in the tiebreak. nice when those ones go our way.

hell yeah goat.....i was glued to the computer man.....it was intense high and low of emotions.....this one i got completely lucky....but about time luck went my way

newjerseydevils · 07-30-10, 03:38 PM

GOOD LUCK WITH TIPPY EAGLES......im staying away...baggy scares me a bit....plus 1 close game is enough for me for a day

....

limitation · 07-30-10, 03:39 PM

EP, What do you think of this parlay: Andy Murray and James Blake (pays about 1.04)? They are both huge favorites and if they play at their game they should win, right? My knowledge on tennis is very limited and I need your opinions if you don't mind. Thanks.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-30-10, 03:45 PM

Blake is a tough one. That match is about 50-50, hence the price being about a pick 'em. Blake probably has more confidence right now than he has had in about a year, but Lopez is the type who can simply win with his serve if it's really tight. Murray at -800 really doesn't help add much to your payout on a parlay, you'd probably be better off just picking Blake straight up if you like him to win.

newjerseydevils · 07-30-10, 03:46 PM

nevermind

EaglesPhan36 · 07-30-10, 03:55 PM

BARTOLI +178
Decided what the hell, it's Friday afternoon close to quitting time. Azarenka has played very well this week, so Bartoli is in for a fight. Still as stated before, she is a two-time finalist here and defending champion. Azarenka may well wallop Bartoli off the court, but Azarenka will need to bring it against Bartoli. She played two pretty lame ducks in Oudin and Morita who didn't require much for her to win. Azarenka did beat her on grass in June in straights, but there's something special about Bartoli and this tournament. It's one of those inexplicable things that happens with some players who just seem to always play well at one tournament.

limitation · 07-30-10, 04:05 PM

Thanks for the feedback, EP. I just started betting on tennis so I don't know much about it. But, it seems like the juice on the tennis are very high compared to other sports when big time players are playing. I guess you are better off for finding good underdogs and bet on them and hope a few of them hit. Too much chalk on the tennis can hurt you big time, huh?

EaglesPhan36 · 07-30-10, 04:14 PM

Yep. I always say set a cutoff for how high you would go on a single play. For me, it's about -170 and it has to be a really, really solid play. Otherwise, parlay a couple together at the bigger prices. You may not always win, but it's easier to take a loss on a parlay at one unit than to spend two or more on a high favorite and lose that.

newjerseydevils · 07-30-10, 05:07 PM

wow bartoli looking good right now..so far so good...keep it going bartoli .......i should have played it....saw the play too late ....hope it cashes for ya

Goat Milk · 07-30-10, 05:46 PM

easy over. ridiculous that it was set at 20.5. should have been 22 at least.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-30-10, 06:08 PM

Was hoping to get one of these two picks here for a profit. Not looking exactly solid if Tipsarevic doesn't figure a way to win this in 2. Bartoli I think is cooked. Her 2nd serve has been getting pounded and she can't get a first serve in much, so that is disaster.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-30-10, 06:27 PM

Alright Tipsy does the trick, but Bartoli is going down - still worked a profit and that's good enough. Happy hour time. Might be back for Sharapova-Dementieva later.

limitation · 07-30-10, 06:28 PM

Good job with going on the underdogs, EP. At least you hit one of them.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-30-10, 09:36 PM

SHARAPOVA-DEMENTIEVA OVER 21.5 [-115]
So many of their previous encounters have been in straight sets that the universe has told me through the vessel of beer that tonight shall be a 3 set affair. The Syndicate has told these two perfect Russian specimens to flaunt their junk for as many minutes as possible. Don't ever question The Syndicate.

beefcake · 07-30-10, 10:31 PM

ToNyyy · 07-30-10, 11:21 PM

You like Gasquet tomorrow? I don't know much about his opponent other than he's ranked like 147. Thanks for sharing your plays. I made a lil money following.

Sadgasm · 07-30-10, 11:39 PM

the Gasquet game seems a risky one to bet on... i can;t find much info on it / but i'm going heavy on petkovic even tho my line is at -220 which isnt much fun to play, cause im only winning half.

JNic · 07-30-10, 11:45 PM

wow gimeno-traver has tons of value at +210 imo, this guy is way underrated

ToNyyy · 07-30-10, 11:54 PM

Yeah. But Almagro has been playing pretty well on Clay. One of the favorites will fall tomorrow, if not then both.

limitation · 07-31-10, 12:07 AM

EP, thanks for warning me about Blake. Glad I stayed away from that play. Lopez smoked him.

newjerseydevils · 07-31-10, 01:08 AM

nice hit on sharapova over eagles....im out for a week or two....need a break from betting.......realized i was getting too stressed....i was never like this before...just lately...hopefully a long break to clear up my head will do wonders...ill still be around the forum poppin in....keepin up with stuff...just not near the betting lines.........go get em eagles......keep on truckin brotha.....wish you all the best.....hope you go on a massive tear and slam those bookies....ill still be around rooting for your plays like always....

EaglesPhan36 · 07-31-10, 09:43 AM

CHELA -120
There's not a whole lot that separates Chela & Starace, but I've been a big supporter of JIC here for the past few weeks thinking he had a chance to make a run in one of these final clay tournaments and now, here he is with that shot. Even though Donkey-denko is a far cry from the player he was prior to his injury, Chela should be brimming with confidence after his win yesterday. Starace ended up on the court for quite a longer time than was needed against Ljubicic and I think the fairly quick turn-around from him playing well over three hours on-court yesterday, including a later match ... will catch up with him somehwat. Chela will need to serve well here, something he doesn't always do, but I think he'll find a way.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-31-10, 10:30 AM

FERRERO-SEPPI OVER 22 [-120]
These two met last year at this very tournament in the exact same round with JCF prevailing in 3 sets. It was a lopsided first set [6-1] and then two tight sets to determine the winner in a very even match for the most part. Hard to read into each guy's last match as JCF faced a hobbled Dogopolov and put him away quickly while Seppi crushed Melzer who played like he had a flight to catch. Over the past few tournaments, Ferrero has had some issues with consistency while Seppi is playing some of the best tennis he has played in some time. Seppi will look to do what he did with Melzer, keep the ball in play and let the opposition make errors. JCF may not be as likely to make a rash of errors like Melzer, but I think the strategy will work well enough to give the over a legit shot here.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-31-10, 10:37 AM

CHALLENGER PLAY

DANCEVIC -145
The Canadian said he did not expect to play in this Granby Challenger this week, but you wouldn't know it from his game. His serve has been over powering as he stands one step away from making his third final at this tournament. He's won it twice, He draws top seed Tobias Kamke who has a good all-court game. He's made a final both on dirt and hard court at the Challenger level this season, however his best work has been done on clay while he is still not at his best on the harder stuff. The #1 seed though does not usually make the final at this tournament with Dancevic the only one to do it in the last 10 years according to what I found. Look for Dancevic's big serve if it continues, to propel him to another final here.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-31-10, 10:55 AM

Finally Chela converts another break point! Sheesh. Starace had saved like 12 in a row. So many opportunities, Chela needs to dig in and take advantage.