EP36's Tennis Talk

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-05-10, 11:07 AM

Kravchuk loses the 1st set in a tie break. Both serving real well with no breaks in the 1st. Kravchuk offered two break points, Gimeno none. Need the Spaniard to start donating some service points.

**limitation** · 08-05-10, 11:09 AM

Hey, EP, what do you think of going large on a parlay of Isner + Roddick? That seems pretty straight forward, right?

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-05-10, 11:23 AM

I'm a little worried about Isner although I do have him as a futures play here. These tie break or bust matches he seems content on playing will bite him at some point I think. I think he has enough to beat Malisse, but one of the things I usually look at in matches is points won and de Bakker actually won more than Isner. Sometimes that indicates failure coming up for the player who advances despite winning less points. Not always a true indicator, but always something to watch. I do like Roddick today and I think I have another player I am teaming up with him. Should be posting that in a little bit.

**JNic** · 08-05-10, 11:30 AM

very true, Isner looks vulnerable and Malisse is much more mentally stable than de bakker to finish him off in tiebreaks. don't forget de bakker threw in some key double faults at crucial moments. the other thing is Isner always starts slow in tournaments and gets better as more matches go along, Malisse is in well enough form to be well worth it at +190ish though.

**beefcake** · 08-05-10, 11:31 AM

Yeah its a serve fest in the challenger.Russian might have to win this 7-6,7-6..

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-05-10, 11:36 AM

Yeah I mean the points won and how they are won service vs. return are almost dead even in that one. Can't see Krachuk doing anything but trying to win a tie break if he can get there.

**limitation** · 08-05-10, 11:37 AM

Is it harder to predict in Challenger compared to ATP tours?

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-05-10, 11:47 AM

I think it's harder to find relevant information on Challengers, but you can still gauge form. Only problem with the lower level is motivation is even more unclear than at the ATP level in some of these matches. Tie break underway in the 2nd.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-05-10, 11:48 AM

Tie break is over. Kravchuk already gave up a point, don't see him getting anything to win this.

**beefcake** · 08-05-10, 11:50 AM

Well were toast..so close on these!

**beefcake** · 08-05-10, 11:53 AM

EP.ever think of doing a quasi-system involving fading favored players that lost the majority of the points the previous match..?

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-05-10, 12:02 PM

I usually only apply it as part of the overall view of a match-up. It kind of tips the scales to me making a pick if I already liked the person they were going up against, etc. I think like most angles in tennis that it would be probably a 50-50 record over the long haul.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-05-10, 12:11 PM

ZHENG +155
I'm a bit curious to see why oddsmakers have established Hantuchova as this large a favorite. Beating Bartoli in 3 tough sets was a solid win for her and battling back from match point, but she also won less points than Bartoli which again for me is a red flag heading into the next match. Zheng can be forgiven I think for losing to Sharapova last week in her first match back on hard courts and she didn't get blown out. She looked solid in Round 1 here and in general has been as good as Hantuchova on hard courts this year. Hantuchova leads the head-2-head, 2-0 but those came at Wimbledon in 2009 and at Indian Wells in 2008. Hantuchova has also never made in past this stage in five previous tries at this San Diego event. I just see this one on this surface as a lot more even than the odds show.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-05-10, 02:04 PM

PARLAY: RODDICK + BAGHDATIS [-136]
Roddick draws Simon and its the case of power vs. poise. Simon's game is to put the ball back in-play and see if his opponent will self destruct. So far this season, it's been Simon who has been self destructing. Through injury and inconsistency, his 2010 has been below-par. Outside of a brief glimmer of sunshine at the Sunrise Challenger in March where he made that hard court final, Simon has rarely had enough to beat players in their element like Roddick is here on hard courts. Roddick was quietly in control of his match in the opening round here and it was a smooth win in straights. This is one of his favorite tournaments and so long as he can continue to dominate on-serve, he should prove to be too much for Simon. Baghdatis worked a nice tight two set tie break win over Zeballos yesterday, pounding out 17 aces. He'll face Marchenko who advanced when Gulbis retired after getting whipped in the opening set, 6-1. Looking at Marchenko on hard courts, he's lost to guys who know how to hold serve well and has yet to put the consistency together on this surface to beat the better players. Baghdatis should be using this DC draw as a chance to build some fitness and form for the US Open Series. If he can serve anything near his pace of yesterday, he should battle through another tight one.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-05-10, 02:19 PM

Kendrick sucks. Should have stuck to my original plan of playing three big favorites in Challenger play today. Was going to go Starace-Mahut-Berlocq. 2 of 3 have already won in that, just don't usually like going against playing two in a parlay. Oh well. Moving on.

**tommygun** · 08-05-10, 03:03 PM

Hi EaglesPhan36,

I have Verdasco and Nalbandian in a modest parlay at odds of $1.61 which converted is -163 or something along those lines. Do you think this is a good play?

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-05-10, 03:09 PM

I think both will win. Verdasco had his troubles against Berrer, but hopefully that was just rust. Sweeting I just cannot back against the better guys in the game. You look at his numbers even when he wins and they are not very impressive, winning in the 50th percentages on 1st serve. Don't like the price for Nalbandian, but I think he has something to prove this summer.

Think we got a rain delay to start in DC.

**tommygun** · 08-05-10, 03:20 PM

You are right, not the best price on Nalbandian thats why I thought i would chuck him in my parlay, I think Nalbandian is a changed player he has been working hard during the off-season and has won 4 in a row so I'm fairly confident he should beat a player like Chiudinelli.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-05-10, 04:04 PM

Guess I know why Zheng was the big underdog. 1st serve winners - 25%. Hantuchova isn't great either at 47%, but she is winning on 2nd serves. Pathetic WTA serving at its best.

**limitation** · 08-05-10, 04:10 PM

So, it looks like there is a rain delay in Washington. Nervous about my two parlays there.

**yisman** · 08-05-10, 05:33 PM

is it a delay or are they postponing the matches? Still no start and it's 2 and a half hours after start time.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-05-10, 06:36 PM

Should be resuming perhaps with the next 30 minutes. Update says court drying is underway.

**limitation** · 08-05-10, 08:27 PM

EP, Thanks for warning me about Isner. Glad I stayed away from him in my parlay. He seems to be coming back but too much drama can bite him.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-05-10, 08:33 PM

I think he's going to end up getting Malisse in the 3rd. Honestly he could use a match like this to challenge him mentally. I think he gets too comfortable with these tie breaks and thinks he's just going to bail himself out more often than not. Hoping he does get through here because I would really like to see him play Berdych.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-05-10, 09:20 PM

Late night & liquor. Work it.

NALBANDIAN-CHIUDINELLI OVER 21.5 [-123]
Oh Fat Dave is back baby and perhaps needing to turn his moniker into Fit Dave depending on what he does this week. He has not been broken on serve through two rounds, so the Swiss is up against it here. Chiudinelli on hard courts is not a wasted opportunity. In looking back to his results through this time a year ago, he hasn't won a ton against the better guys on tour - but he has battled hard. He took a set of Djokovic at the Aussie Open and has served pretty well in his own right through rounds one and two here. He needs to improve his 1st serve percentage and get it up close to 60 vs. mid 40s from the last round and mid 50s from the first. He's only been broken once in 7 break opps, so that is solid. Nalbandian has been tough, but has faced two out-of-form players. If the Swiss can hold his serve, this one should be fairly competitive.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-05-10, 09:24 PM

Guess who's going to a 3rd set tie break? Get 'em Big John.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-05-10, 09:32 PM

And there's Isner choking in a tie break. That's well deserved after the last couple weeks.

**limitation** · 08-05-10, 09:34 PM

When you play with fire many times, sooner or later you will get burned. That's what Isner did. Thanks for the warning, EP. Saved me from blowing my parlay.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-05-10, 09:55 PM

F-ing Baghdatis blew an early break lead in the tie break in this 2nd set. Gotta go 3 now. Sheesh. Hasn't been broken once. Marchenko has saved 8 of 9 breakers. Hopefully if Marchenko continues to hand those out in the 3rd, Baggy will start converting and take this damn thing. Roddick-Simon just starting now.

**danller** · 08-05-10, 10:06 PM

wtf is baggy doing.. Im on him in a parlay with nalbandian,, playing like sh!t right now

**CindyCryBaby** · 08-05-10, 10:11 PM

Do you have a stream danller?

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-05-10, 10:13 PM

Berdych barely gonna survive Golubev tonight. This tournament is wide open.

Baghdatis just broke back to get on-serve. Roddick down a damn break in the 1st to f-ing Simon. His 2nd serve is whore's sheet.

**beefcake** · 08-05-10, 10:16 PM

For the Record..Im diggin the new and improved Tennis Flashscore.Nice to see in game updates with points and serves,beats having to switch from tourney to tourney on the ATP website!

Late night Chinese action EP?

**limitation** · 08-05-10, 10:20 PM

Wtf is Roddick doing? He needs to stop playing around.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-05-10, 10:24 PM

No China for me, gotta sleep some time. I can't believe Roddick is playing this bad against f-ing Simon. Need him to wake up and keep my futures play alive ... not even thinking about this parlay that seems doomed one way or another.