EP36's Tennis Talk

**limitation** · 08-05-10, 10:26 PM

Gonna need your miracle EP. Roddick needs to come back somehow.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-05-10, 10:35 PM

Baghdatis gets the break he needed. I just can't believe Roddick is playing this poorly. That 2nd serve is about the worst I've ever seen from him. 2/14 on 3nd serve? Youch. He's done. Nalbandian rolling early. Looks like I should have gone to sleep.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-05-10, 10:56 PM

Not just that Roddick lost tonight, but he got KILLED by Gilles Simon. Is Simon a force? I think Roddick is sliding that hard now. We'll see with Simon in his next match against Nalbandian. If he plays well there, I'll believe it.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-05-10, 11:19 PM

FRIDAY CHALLENGER PARLAY: HAASE + MANNARINO [+129]
Taking it light to end the week as my mojo seems to drown when the weekend comes. Haase draws Machado in San Marino. Machado scored the nice upset of his countryman Gil, but Haase is the form player here with three straight QF appearances or better on clay. He'll need to bring a solid serve, but that should be the difference. Mannarino made the finals of the Segovia tournament last year and is coming in here in good form on hard courts having made a Challenger final a few weeks back. He draws Kudryatsev who has been okay on hard courts, but not great.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-06-10, 07:12 AM

Mannarino won. Need Haase now.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-06-10, 08:19 AM

Going to watch the line movement a little more, but Levine vs. Berankis at Vancouver. I was really liking the youngster Berankis, but the price is now heavily in favor of Levine and I cannot see a reason why. I think Berankis was the favorite and now is a +125 dog.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-06-10, 09:19 AM

BERDYCH-MALISSE OVER 22.5 [-118]
I think most people including myself, expected Berdych to straighten out after a shaky match with Tursunov to open at the Legg Mason Classic. However, he still had issues against Golubev. His first serve percentage has been low, but he continues to do a solid job maintaining it without offering too many break opps. Malisse has looked solid this week and took out Isner in his specialty, a tie break. Malisse's serve has been dominant as well, but he too would do well to improve his 1st serve percentage. With Berdych not appearing in tip top form here, I think Malisse can give him a run if his serve remains solid. Potential three setter here, but could get done even in two if both are on-serve.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-06-10, 10:17 AM

Haase finishes off the parlay with an easy win over Machado.

**beefcake** · 08-06-10, 10:49 AM

Thought about taking malisse +225..But ill stick with the total..

Nice hit on the Parlay!

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-06-10, 10:50 AM

CHALLENGER PLAY

BERANKIS -105
After an influx of money on Levine, it appears the market has flattened out. Berankis has been impressive in Vancouver with straight sets wins over Collarini and more impressively, veteran Gilles Muller. Berankis' serve has been solid with no breaks of his serve yet in 7 opportunities. Levine has worked a pair of 6-4, 6-4 wins and was better last round after a lethargic first rounder against Ryan Harrison. Levine has had a solid season on hard courts with a finals appearance in Lexington in July, but he's never been able to maintain enough consistency from tournament to tournament. Berankis is still learning to work this surface, but has flashed his all-court talent plenty enough to think he can beat Levine. Consider as an 18-year old in 2008, Berankis beat Levine in qualifying at the Sunrise Challenger on a hard court surface to mark his 1st win on the surface at that stage of his career. Progress two plus years later and I think you have a better Berankis while Levine seems to have flattened out some this year due to injury & inconsistency after a decent 2009 season.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-06-10, 10:55 AM

Also wanting to take Baghdatis +145 over Verdasco, but cannot quite talk myself into it for some reason. Just seems a little too good of a line with the way Verdasco has played here so far. If Verdasco plays like he did in either round 1 or round 2 against Baghdatis, I have no doubt that he'd be gone. Baggy was a little flat last night too though in the one set.

**beefcake** · 08-06-10, 10:56 AM

Like it...

Might want to take at look at MX Gong in bejing late tonight.he took out Niland on his best surface and is playing Skugor with the home fans behind him.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-06-10, 12:23 PM

PENNETTA +130
Pennetta draws Stosur and it is hard to look at the past head-2-head and not be impressed by today's underdog. She's whipped Stosur twice on hard courts in the past year and has looked solid in San Diego, showing good fight-back ability for when she gets broken on serve. Stosur beat Oudin 6-4, 6-4 but I wasn't overly impressed because she allowed Oudin to stick around despite offering up 13 breakers to the Aussie. The surface may favor Stosur, but Pennetta seems to match-up well and her confidence looks solid right now. Pennetta has talked ahead of this match about being ready to try and run down Stosur's serve, so she appears focused.

**beefcake** · 08-06-10, 01:35 PM

Another fav goes down in DC,whos next?

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-06-10, 01:52 PM

Verdasco could be next easily, although I didn't have the guts to take Baghdatis for some reason. Honestly the only match-up where I think the favorite will win handily is Nalbandian-Simon. Baggy could win. Tipsarevic has been in great form and could beat Cilic.

Total in the Berdych-Malisse match cashes!

**tommygun** · 08-06-10, 02:43 PM

Hantuchova to beat Kleybenova, bet of the day IMO.

**tommygun** · 08-06-10, 02:47 PM

Kuznetsova should dispose of Vandeweghe too

**limitation** · 08-06-10, 02:54 PM

Underdogs day. Unbelievable. Glad I stayed away from all the favorites today after I learned my lessons from Roddick yesterday. EP, Why are the underdogs owning this Legg Mason tournament?

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-06-10, 03:11 PM

Variety of reasons I think. Look at your high seeds here:

Berdych: Hadn't played since Wimbledon. Rusty.

Roddick: Slumping before & physical/mental questions.

Isner: Fitness. Burnout still perhaps.

Querrey: Won LA last week, so had a full schedule with travel + playing same player twice in two tourneys.

In all honesty, the only one that I think should have caught us off-guard was Roddick because of his opponent in Simon who had done nothing this season. The others I mentioned above all played solid opponents who matched up pretty well.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-06-10, 03:24 PM

Pennetta

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-06-10, 03:28 PM

Looks like I would have been fine taking Baghdatis too.

**limitation** · 08-06-10, 03:31 PM

Like I said underdogs day! I am gonna be crazy and put small amount of money on Simon to beat Big Dave. Why not???

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-06-10, 03:39 PM

KLEYBANOVA-HANTUCHOVA OVER 21.5 [-118]
This one looks to be a good match-up with Hantuchova having scored the more impressive wins so far this week. Kleybanova though is no pushover and her hard court results in 2010 show that. As per usual, serving hasn't been at a premium in WTA play this week. Kleybanova has offered out 18 break points, while Hantuchova has given out 20. Both have done a nice job of picking on the break opps from their opponents with Hantuchova converting 10 of 18 and Kleybanova getting 12 of 26. Expecting plenty of breaks and break opps here. Would not be surprised to see this go 3 sets.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-06-10, 03:40 PM

Side note as part of what I promised myself last weekend after I sucked ass for the second straight weekend and as part of having a surprise birthday party to get to this evening, I will probably not have many plays posted this weekend. Will not be near a computer until Saturday afternoon, so I may skip most if not all of Saturday and make a play or two for Championship Sunday. Good luck with your picks!

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-06-10, 03:58 PM

Berankis wins in straights. I'm headed out on the road mi amigos and amigettes. Good fortune, food, beer, liquor and dudes or dudettes - whatever you prefer - in your weekend forecast.

**limitation** · 08-06-10, 04:26 PM

Have fun EP!

**bolekblues** · 08-06-10, 09:10 PM

Nice streak recently! have a nice weekend EP!

**Tsonga** · 08-07-10, 07:40 AM

nice to see people taking a break here....

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 08-07-10, 07:52 AM

Always a tricky tournament Washington - if anyone comes in slightly off their game it's an unforgiving surface, pretty quick so no mistiming is allowed. There there's nasty humidity, and the wind too this week.

**Cross.Winds** · 08-07-10, 11:02 AM

tailing you on berdych match !

**beefcake** · 08-07-10, 12:46 PM

Even great cappers like EP deserve a break!

**fuglyboy86hi** · 08-07-10, 03:38 PM

i am tailing you over pennetta!

she's trying hard to even take the game on her own serve :-s

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-07-10, 05:38 PM

Whaddup Gs and G-ettes. Got back from my trip and gonna try the old Mad Math Formula on the Cilic-Nalbandian match. What this entails is taking both players for one unit to win in 3 sets. I call it Mad Math because books offer odds for the match to end in 3 sets normally at a way lower price ahead of picking the exact result. Example for tonight:

MATCH ENDS IN 3 SETS: +137
CILIC WINS 2-1: +362
NALBANDIAN WINS 2-1: +338

So by using the Mad Math, if it hits, you are risking two units to win at worst, an additional unit over the +137 price if Nalbandian wins and an additional 1.3 if Cilic wins in 3. These are just bets I like to make when the odds are offered and the match looks as if it will be a back & forth affair. That's what I like for tonight with Nalbandian showing a few chinks in the armor last night with errors against Simon, while Cilic has been solid, but also played a three setter against Fish and two tight sets against Tipsarevic. Also adding in that neither guy has played this many matches in a row in months due to time off, etc so fatigue could lead to some slop for both and each being able to take advantage and win a set. I don't particularly see an edge in taking one of these guys as they both are playing well and it's a reall toss-up. Rooting for 3 sets!

**limitation** · 08-07-10, 06:16 PM

Good to have you back, EP. Gonna be tailing you on this one.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-07-10, 06:57 PM

Figures the good old Cilic shows up in this one and he's not going to get a set I don't think. Nalbandian is beating his ass pretty easy and Cilic is an error machine with a POS serve.