EP36's Tennis Talk

**TheSchafe** · 01-28-10, 01:06 AM

Yeah...I got totally owned there, too. Zheng's first serve doesn't even clock at over 85 mph! Semi-finalist?! Ugh...

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-28-10, 09:17 AM

What sucks is I may have the two men's finalists picked from my futures if Federer wins - but capping the matches in between the draw and the finals - I have been horrible so far.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-31-10, 10:06 PM

Play #14: [Johannesburg ATP] Rik de Voest -125
Home-standing South African de Voest takes on a seeded player in Rajeev Ram. de Voest has won both matches the two played on outdoor hard courts at the challenger level, while Ram took all three on an indoor surface. de Voest is a guy who uses speed and a serve & volley game whereas Ram will likely try to use a more powerful serve and bigger groundstrokes to win. de Voest is 1-1 at this event with both matches coming last year, he beat Ivan Navarro in straights and then had his chances against Frederico Gil before losing in 3. With the crowd likely on his side, I think he battles through.

**Kav** · 02-01-10, 05:01 AM

love this play, nice job getting the line early. its already at -140.

**beefcake** · 02-01-10, 10:49 AM

Yeah you gotta like de vost and the home cooking to pump him up...the entire planet is on him in this match, which makes a little leery,but best of luck as always EP!

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-01-10, 11:11 AM

Other thing I read that I shoud have included - Johannesburg is apparently at a high altitude. 5700 ft above sea level or so, should help someone who is more used to those conditions as well.

**beefcake** · 02-01-10, 12:24 PM

man i was watching the zagreb matches online,and in the background there is this spooky looking draculas castle behind the court...
gotta love these 250 tourneys!!

**Busterflywheel** · 02-01-10, 12:24 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Play #14: [Johannesburg ATP] Rik de Voest -125
Home-standing South African de Voest takes on a seeded player in Rajeev Ram. de Voest has won both matches the two played on outdoor hard courts at the challenger level, while Ram took all three on an indoor surface. de Voest is a guy who uses speed and a serve & volley game whereas Ram will likely try to use a more powerful serve and bigger groundstrokes to win. de Voest is 1-1 at this event with both matches coming last year, he beat Ivan Navarro in straights and then had his chances against Frederico Gil before losing in 3. With the crowd likely on his side, I think he battles through.

BOL with your match...

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-01-10, 05:00 PM

Updated Record: 5-9 (-3.30)

Another day, another loss. That's gonna be my new motto.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-01-10, 11:04 PM

Play #15: [ATP - PBZ Zagreb Indoors] Dennis Istomin [-102]
I can only think the line favors Istomin's opponent Lukas Lacko here because of his past participation in this tournament. Otherwise, there is little to nothing to support not taking Istomin at the better price. Istomin comes into this event with a so-so record on the indoor hard stuff at 20-24. Lacko is 30-29 on the indoor surface, but much of that has come at the Challenger level. Istomin has defeated Lacko in both career meetings, one last October and the other two years ago at the Australian Open in 4 sets. In both cases, Isotomin took advantage of a bevy of break chances, cashing in on 10 of 26. Istomin had a decent run at the Aussie Open beating talented Jeremy Chardy in straight sets and advancing to the 3rd round before Djokovic KO'ed him. Lacko fell in the 2nd round to Nadal.

**Kav** · 02-01-10, 11:52 PM

cant believe ram won, what a shocker.

**RobbReport** · 02-02-10, 02:36 AM

I might play Lapentti, i think he has a decent chance.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-02-10, 09:17 AM

Not sure what the closing price was, but perhaps the price for Istomin was based on injury. Saved by retirement as he was down a set and tied 2-2 when he withdrew.

**tailmypicks** · 02-02-10, 10:23 AM

no more plays?

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-02-10, 10:59 AM

Didn't like anything else at the listed prices today. These tourneys this week are a bit lacking for the early round for much worthwhile. Should have better opportunities from the QF rounds and on toward the weekend.

**spargament** · 02-02-10, 01:01 PM

check out Greul at -200?

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-02-10, 01:41 PM

I can't play -200 on anyone early in these tournaments and in most in general outside of maybe the Top 5 or so on the men's side if the match-up is close to perfect. Thing that would concern me there is Greul has yet to get on dirt besides practice where Souza has been on clay for a couple weeks now with some tourney matches under his belt.

**spargament** · 02-02-10, 03:16 PM

yeah, I thought about that for a while, but I felt like the skill discrepancy between the two in my opinion outweighed that concern. BOL Though EP

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-03-10, 11:50 AM

Play #15: [ATP - Santiago] Alberto Martin vs. Ricardo Mello Total Games OVER 22.5 (-120)
Should be a typical clay court match with both guys not possessing overpowering serves. They both usually offer up plenty of break chances and that can lead to some uneven sets, but back and forth where this could wind up going 3 - but even potentially get done in two. Martin's 1st round match showed plenty of this with 12 break opportunities given and 7 double faults in a 6-7, 7-5, 6-4 win. Mello was a bit more in control of his serve with just 6 break opps handed out, but he only saved 3. He downed Cuevas 7-6, 6-3. As long as both guys offer up the breakers and cash in enough on the other's serve, think this has a legit shot.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-03-10, 05:18 PM

Updated Record: 5-10 (-4.50)

The 2010 FADE ME TOUR continues.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-03-10, 11:35 PM

Play #16: [PBZ Zagreb Indoors] Benjamin Becker [-130]
Sticking with the bigger serve in the German vs. German duel between Becker and Petzschner. Both possess serves that win plenty of points when they're on. Becker's though has the potential for more pop and cheap points. He has 48 aces through 5 matches this season, winning 76% of the points off his 1st serve and a workmanlike 54% off 2nd serve. Petzschner is similar, winning 70% of his 1st serve points and 43% of his 2nd through just two matches. Both have been losses. The return games are about equal IMO. I like Becker already having that winning feeling in 2010, including finding himself on this court in a tough 3 set battle where he came through in a 3rd set tie break.

**rumple** · 02-04-10, 09:55 PM

Man that was a tough loss. Becker breaks him easily in 1st set then doesnt come close rest of match.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-04-10, 10:54 PM

Probably one of the weirdest things you'll see. Becker was never broken, but lost in 3 sets after killing Petz in the 1st, 6-1. New ways to lose every day, that's how I do.

**ji03** · 02-04-10, 10:59 PM

You'll get it turned around EP just keep plugging away.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-05-10, 12:33 PM

Updated Record: 5-11 (-5.80)

Play #16: [ATP Movistar Open - Santiago, Chile]
Joao Souza +135
The young Brazilian has been a plucky little competitor at this event, moving through qualifying and then upsetting seeded Simon Greul in three tense sets and then whooping Riba 6-4, 6-4 yesterday. He's used a solid serve in this tournament as a good weapon to get him through with only 12 break chances given in two main draw matches, saving 7 of them. Martin got timely break points against Mello last round and improved his own serve after seven double faults nearly cost him his opener against Marcos Daniel. Bottom line here is that Souza may be the younger, less inexperienced player - but Martin is never trustable at larger odds in my book. Martin has also made just one semifinal appearance in a clay court tournament in the last year plus, so it's not like he's used to being in tournaments late. I think Souza may be in one of those grooves where despite the inexperience, he moves on. Of course, check my record and you know where your money should go!

**beefcake** · 02-05-10, 01:26 PM

love the play!!

GL to us!

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-05-10, 01:29 PM

It'd be nice to win ONE this week.

**ji03** · 02-05-10, 03:55 PM

Nice hit EP

**beefcake** · 02-05-10, 04:02 PM

nice hit!
he should be a bigger dog tommorrow vs monaco most likely(might be worth it + games)

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-05-10, 04:48 PM

Updated Record: 6-11 (-4.45)

Damn. Souza spanked that ass! Feels good to actually get a win.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-09-10, 01:23 AM

Play #18: [ATP - Rodderdam] Ivan Ljubicic [-150]
Looba wasn't exactly awe inspiring on home turf last week, losing to Lacko in a 3rd set tie break. Still, on a fast indoor surface, his serve should prove enough against Benneteau whom he has a 4-1 career mark against. The Frenchman can spoil on this surface once in a while, but does more damage in his home country than any where else. If the Croat [Ljubicic] brings his heavy serve, he'll do work in 2. If not, I still think he can get it done in 3. Ljubicic is 15-7 at this event, but has lost in the 1st round against tougher opponents the last two years in Murray & Berdych. Benneteau played well here in 2009, but has done little outside of France on this surface since.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-09-10, 09:56 AM

Updated Record: 6-12 (-5.95)

Horrible

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-09-10, 11:15 AM

Play #19: [ATP - Costa Suipe] Andreev/Starace Total Games OVER 22 (-120)
Two clay court vets going at 2pm ET. They are very familiar with each other having played six times in their careers with four of those meetings on clay. Andreev holds the advantage at 5-1 with Starace's only win coming on a hard court. I'd back Andreev, but my number one rule is not to bet on Russians as far as moneylines/handicaps are concerned and this one looks far too easy with Andreev at -150 and holding that head-2-head advantage. So put on your Russian filter before you back him. That's why I'll hang my hat on the over today. Early in the season, first clay court match for Andreev whereas Starace busted his clay cherry for 2010 last week in Chile with a 7-6, 6-4 loss to Peter Luczak. Starace is 3-5 at this event all-time and Andreev is 0-2 having lost in the first round each of the times he's been here. I'm expecting a back and forth affair and hope that Andreev takes a little time to get acclimated to match conditions on clay, making for a 3 setter or perhaps a two set win for either with a tie breaker helping out.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-09-10, 04:14 PM

Updated Record: 6-13 (-7.15)

Outsmarted myself again. I am smart, SMRT. Gonna stop using my brain from this point on. F-ing stupid ass.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-10-10, 12:24 AM

Play #20: [ATP - Rotterdam] Michael Berrer -144
Berrer is hot. Call me the cooler. Bury me softly.