great stuff with this thread BC, love testing "systems" like this based on reasoning that is actually meaningful. Tennis certainly not one of my major sports and not one I have a great feel for, but I based a few plays earlier in the year on a method I like from time to time in sports like NBA ect - "reverse odds analysis".
In tennis that would equate to something like this: player 'A' vs player 'B' ... Player 'A' has a 4-1 head to head record vs Player 'B', but player 'B' is a favoured in their matchup today. So you were in essence taking your cue from the odds. Obviously you had to take in a few considerations like how long ago their previous matches were ? what surfaces they were played on ect, but I did use have a degree of success using this for matches where the matchups were recent and the surfaces were similar or the same as the current matchup.
I guess the only drawback with this method is it means playing the favourite most if not every time, and I think in the longrun you MUST be playing +100 or better to do well in tennis. So this one of yours looks good because in theory, on face value, you're generally getting 'over the odds' on the player you're betting.
In tennis that would equate to something like this: player 'A' vs player 'B' ... Player 'A' has a 4-1 head to head record vs Player 'B', but player 'B' is a favoured in their matchup today. So you were in essence taking your cue from the odds. Obviously you had to take in a few considerations like how long ago their previous matches were ? what surfaces they were played on ect, but I did use have a degree of success using this for matches where the matchups were recent and the surfaces were similar or the same as the current matchup.
I guess the only drawback with this method is it means playing the favourite most if not every time, and I think in the longrun you MUST be playing +100 or better to do well in tennis. So this one of yours looks good because in theory, on face value, you're generally getting 'over the odds' on the player you're betting.
