Serve's Up: Set #1

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-10-09, 09:57 AM

Play #18: (Set: 2-0, Game: 40-15)
MONTREAL, QUEBEC
Florent Serra -125 (Schuettler)
Neither Serre nor Schuettler has shown any consistency on hard surfaces in 2009. However, Serra has consistently beaten Schuettler when they have played. 3-0 head-2-head advantage. Two of those meetings have come within the last year, including a straight sets win on clay in May & a win by retirement at the U.S. Open last season when Serra was in control after two sets. Schuettler did get a win on hard court last week against the youngster Mayer, but this figures to be tougher against a veteran player who obviously knows him well. Should be competitive, but hoping Serra's history against Schuettler helps him pass through.

**yisman** · 08-10-09, 10:23 AM

"Neither Serre nor Schuettler"

Serra. :P

FWIW, I agree that Serra has the edge, but I'm staying away.

picochalk should use this sets style.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-10-09, 11:09 AM

Play #19: (Set: 2-0, Game: 40-30)
CINCINNATI, OHIO
Patty Schnyder -115 (Dulko)
These are the only spots when I feel comfortable backing Schnyder as the higher her price gets, the more apt she is to lay an egg. This should be a good spot for her though. She seems to rev it up a bit more for the hard court swing during the summer in the US than she does in the spring. Dulko is still better on clay than she is on hard courts, although she won't be a slouch here. Still, most of her wins on this surface recently has come against players who she should beat and then against higher ranked players, she has some issues. Dulko is also 0-6 since last year at this time vs. lefties and just 8-16 all-time vs. lefties. Schnyder laid an egg in Istanbul in her switch back to hard court in late July, but that could have just been that one match that many players seems to need to transition to the different surface.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-10-09, 11:17 AM

Play #18 Result: [L] (Set: 2-0, Game: 40-30)

Serra is getting drilled on his 2nd serve. It's not over, but it's over. Moving on.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-10-09, 02:14 PM

Play #19 Result: [W] (Set: 3-0)
Game Betting Record: 4-2 (+1.82)

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-10-09, 02:23 PM

Play #20: (Set: 3-0, Game: 0-0)
MONTREAL, QUEBEC
Stanislas Wawrinka -155 (Kiefer)
Wawrinka is one of those steady, but unspectacular players who usually gives you about what you expect. On hard courts this season, that has been the case. He's 8-5 with only one bad loss to start the year to Cipolla. Otherwise, his hard court losses have been to the likes of Nadal, Djokovic, Federer & Berdych. He took both Nadal & Djokovic to a pair of tie breakers in each of those losses. Kiefer comes into this with some question about the condition of his ankle which forced him to withdraw in Switzerland a couple weeks back. I'd expect it to be close to 100% with 10 days or so of rest. Kiefer's hard court form has been nothing special & he hasn't had much practice on it in 2009 with just 4 matches and a 2-2 mark. His losses were to Federer & Roddick. Wins over Santoro (3 sets) & Bobby Reynolds who is completely lost on the court this year. Looking back to 2008, Kiefer has his one big breakout on hard court in Toronto, but otherwise has been about a .500 player on the surface. Kiefer can push Wawrinka if he's fully healthy, but even so, Wawrinka has a bit more consistent game if he shows up ready to compete.

**dennisback** · 08-10-09, 02:48 PM

what u think of bartoli/clijsters? im goin on kimmy

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-10-09, 03:35 PM

Not touching that. For me, no point because you have no clue what sort of form Clijsters is going to have. Definitely have to see her play once before I would think about laying any money on matches involving her.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-10-09, 05:06 PM

Play #20 Result: [W] (Set: 3-0, Game: 15-0)

Wawrinka rolled him in straights. Good start to the 4th game with a wicked forehand smash on a 2nd serve from my opponent.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-11-09, 09:52 AM

Play #21: (Set: 3-0, Game: 15-0)
CINCINNATI, OHIO
Sara Errani +165 (Hantuchova)
Errani won a 3 setter against Hantuchova in January at Brisbane on the hard surface. Errani crushed Hantuchova's 2nd serve that day (61%) and converted half of the break points offered up, 7/14. Errani has been out of action since late July, but she played very well at the hard court tournament in Slovakia, getting to the final before losing to Safina. Should be noted that has been her favorite hard court tournament in the last two years. Her hard court form prior to that run had been pretty tame since the Australian swing where she played decently. Hantuchova has played reasonably well as the US hard court swing began with a 3-2 record in her last two tourneys. But like Errani, she has been just a bit over .500 on the surface in the last year which makes this one a lot closer to a 50-50 proposition than the price says. Errani's 1st serve is shit, so expect the 2nd serve for both ladies to tell the story today.

**fuglyboy86hi** · 08-11-09, 10:14 AM

i'm on errani too

**fuglyboy86hi** · 08-11-09, 10:29 AM

errani already ahead

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-11-09, 11:20 AM

Play #22: (In-Limbo)
MONTREAL, QUEBEC
John Isner -180 (Levine)
A little surprising to see the price this low on Isner, but I am guessing that the price was kept low because I think people are expecting fatigue to catch up with the lanky American sooner or later. Fatigue may catch him at some point, but this appears to be a solid match-up for the red hot master blaster of serve. Isner is on the best run of his career and really impressed me last week in Washington with wins over Tsonga & Berdych, plus taking Roddick deep into a 3rd set. Levine has not played well on hard courts this year, winning just two main draw matches on the ATP level all season. He does have a couple qualifying wins under his belt in Montreal, but even then, he did not exactly impress. Levine has beaten Isner twice in two head-2-head meetings, but both were at least a year ago when Isner wasn't nearly in the form he is now. Levine is pesky and if his serve actually works, he may stick around for a 3rd set - but I'll ride the streak of Big John once more.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-11-09, 12:45 PM

Play #23: (In-Limbo)
MONTREAL, QUEBEC
Ivo Karlovic -115 (Haas)
Should be very few surprises as to how this one will go. Ivo's got the huge serve and you can expect tie breaks if his serve is on from Jump Street. Haas has played well in his last two tournaments, but his serve still seems to come & go which is not what you need against Karlovic. Looking at Haas' hard court losses in 2009, big servers Querrey, F.Gonzalez & Chardy are among the men to KO the German. Both men have tie break records around .500, so this one really is about a 50-50 proposition. For me, the gut feeling is that "Dr.Ivo" and his serve prevail in a couple of tight sets, maybe even 3.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-11-09, 12:46 PM

Play #21 Result: [L] (Set: 3-0, 15-15)

Errani crashed & burned after winning the 1st set. Too bad because Hantuchova did give her some chances.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-11-09, 01:07 PM

Play #22 Result: [W] (Set: 3-0, 30-15)

Easiest wager of the day IMO. Thank the books for setting the chalk so low if you got to win more than a unit. It was worth it.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-11-09, 06:51 PM

Play #23 Result: [L] (Set: 3-0, 30-30)

Pretty much what was expected. Karlovic won a set, lost a 2nd set tie break & then got broke in the 3rd set and never got back into it, losing in 3 ... 6-4 in the 3rd. Meh.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-12-09, 09:35 AM

Play #24: (Set: 3-0, Game: 30-30)
MONTREAL, QUEBEC
John Isner -140 (Youzhny)
This price likely would have been at least -200 if these two would have met before the Russian's upset win over Cilic in Round 1. Youzhny was still having issues with 10 double faults and offered up 9 break opportunities, he saved 5. He took advantage of some sloppy play from Cilic as he won 5/7 breakers. Considering Cilic crashed out to Deverrman in Washington last week, you have to question exactly how much Youzhny's win yesterday is worth. Isner continued his run on hard courts this summer with a fairly pedestrian win over Levine in straights. Isner won 70% plus on both his 1st and 2nd serve which will beat just about anyone. He saved all 3 of his break opps and crushed Levine's 2nd serve, winning 67% of the points. So long as Isner continues to pump his big serve in, he should have too much for Youzhny who hasn't won back-2-back matches since early June & is just 4-6 on outdoor hard courts in 2009.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-12-09, 11:48 AM

Play #25: (In-Limbo)
MONTREAL, QUEBEC
Gael Monfils +120
Match fitness should not be a concern for Monfils after playing a 3 setter vs. Safin in his opener in Montreal. That match should have helped him shake off some rust and work into "match" shape. Monfils did serve very well, which he will need against today. Ferrero comes in off a demolishment of Hewitt in his opener, but Hewitt may have been protecting a thigh problem that has persisted for a bit now. In looking at this one, this may be one of the few opportunities to get Monfils at plus money if he is back close to 100% from the wrist injury. He's definitely someone when at his best should be able to beat Ferrero in this setting. It will likely be a battle, so taking the better odds in a mostly even match-up seems prudent.

**MexicanStallion** · 08-12-09, 12:32 PM

Isner is toast.

Disappointing after a great start.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-12-09, 01:03 PM

Play #24: [L] (Set: 3-0, Game: 30-40)

Isner's serve was off most of the match, especially the 2nd & 3rd sets, and when that happens, dude won't win much. Looks like the opposition might be about to take it's first game in this set if Monfils continues to lose. Boo!

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-12-09, 05:25 PM

Play #25 Result: [L] (Set: 3-1)
Game Betting Result: 2-4 (-3.55)

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-12-09, 05:28 PM

Play #26: (Set: 3-1, Game: 0-0)
MONTREAL, QUEBEC
Tommy Haas +110 (Gonzalez)
Gonzalez did beat him in straights last week, but Fernando falls into the category where I like taking the opposition. In winning in Round 1, Gonzo struggled and actually scored five less points than his opponent. Often times, that is a precursor to a loss in the next match. It's not full proof, but it's worth a shot here especially with Haas in-form.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-12-09, 06:03 PM

Fork. No bet on Haas as I missed the start time for the match. Thought I was gonna get back from the store, but noooooo.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-13-09, 12:14 PM

Play #26: (Set: 3-1, Game 0-0)
CINCINNATI, OHIO
Kim Clijsters -170 (Kuznetsova)
Just two matches back in her comeback and Clijsters has already taken out a pair of Top 20 players in Bartoli & Schnyder. Now comes #6 in the world in Kuznetsova and tie me up and hitch me to the Belgian bandwagon. I wanted to see what she would yield through her first two matches back and she got a lot sharper in her last match. I think she'll see the match against Kuzy as a chance to further find out how hard she has to work during this comeback or that she's already at a level where she can KO some of the Top 10 players. Her outdoor hard court winning percentage is almost unfathomable (113-16). Obviously it's been awhile since these two met (3 years), but Kuznetsova was a punching bag for Clijsters in the old days. If the Belgian is going to ascend quickly back up the rankings, this is her chance to serve notice.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-13-09, 03:21 PM

Play #26 Result: [W] (Set: 3-1, Game: 15-0)

Clijsters stumbled a bit in the 2nd when she got broke serving for the set, but she recovered nicely and buried Kuznetsova in the 3rd. Good way to start off a new game!

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-13-09, 03:32 PM

Play #27: (Set: 3-1, Game: 15-0)
CINCINNATI, OHIO
Jelena Jankovic +150 (Azarenka)
Azarenka has been overpowering her opponents this week with her 1st serve, which has been winning at an alarming rate. Now, she'll get tested by the defense of Jankovic - the best she'll have faced this week. Jankovic is still not in the form that saw her playing very well last summer and culminating with a trip to the U.S. Open Final, but she's still a threat. The key for JJ as always is how well she serves. It's often times not going to be pretty, but she's one of those rare women's players who can still win a match when she gets broken multiple times. That was the case in her first match in Cincy where she lost 6 breakers out of 8, but broke Kirilenko 7 of 8 opportunities. I'm siding with the plus money here and thinking Azarenka's serve won't be quite as effective as it has been in the 1st two rounds here. If the Russian's 1st serve isn't getting her more than 60% or so of the points, I think Jankovic will have a real shot in this one. Figure either Azarenka rolls her in straights or this is a 3 set battle. Hoping, for the latter.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-13-09, 06:14 PM

Play #27 Result: [W] (Set: 3-1, Game: 30-0)

Don't call it a comeback! About what was expected, Jankovic got broken plenty, but answered a lot by breaking Azarenka back. Impressive win in the 2nd set tie break as Azarenka was 14-1 in tie breakers in 2009 prior to today.

**MexicanStallion** · 08-13-09, 06:16 PM

Great bounce back today. Wish I would have caught your second play. Keep up the great work.

**dennisback** · 08-13-09, 06:16 PM

nice call, vika had way too many DFs, i heard at 5-6 in set 1 she made 4 DFs...

**Bakerdew** · 08-13-09, 09:40 PM

thanks for all the plays

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-14-09, 10:49 AM

Play #28: (Set: 3-1, Game: 30-0)
CINCINNATI, OHIO
Caroline Wozniacki +160 (Dementieva)
I'll take the shot on Wozniacki here. The career head-2-head suggests this should be a close encounter with Wozniacki going 2-0 against Dementieva in 2009, one clay & one hard court win. Dementieva has survived the first couple rounds in Cincy despite having troubles getting her first serve in, 53 & 57% in those matches. No one has made her pay for having a lot of 2nd serves, but Wozniacki could be the one to test here if that continues. Wozniacki did not transition back to hard court well last week, getting KO'ed by Cirstea in the 1st round. She survived Wozniak in the first round, winning 55% of the 2nd serve points. If Wozniacki controls her own serve and gets her first serve in for points, she will have a definite shot here. Dementieva still seems prone to clunkers as evidenced by last week's LA performance where she rolled through 3 rounds and then got pummeled by Venus in straights. I don't expect Wozniacki to roll here, but at this price - she is worth it.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-14-09, 11:54 AM

Play #28 Result: [L] (Set: 3-1, Game: 30-15)

It's one set (6-2), but Wozniacki is sporting a serve that a corpse could return today. She's won 38% of her first serves. That is just pathetic. Dementieva is double faulting her ass off & her serving isn't much better, but she's played the break points better. Took my shot at a big return here and shanked it apparently. I'll be surprised if Dementieva doesn't shore up her play in the 2nd and whip Wozniacki's ass easily in straights.

**yisman** · 08-14-09, 12:18 PM

steamrolled in the second set as well

**yisman** · 08-14-09, 12:28 PM

6-2 6-1

geez