Serve's Up: Set #1

**MexicanStallion** · 07-27-09, 12:48 AM

I think this would be a fun way to track your plays this tournament. If you sweep your set, will you be done then for this? Anyway good luck. I will tail this play here and hope to cash in the morning. Good luck this tournament.

**shhhhh22** · 07-27-09, 01:13 AM

Love the pick. also like:
Andreev -440 (even with the juice he's worth it)
Cipolla +107

**Spanks** · 07-27-09, 07:51 AM

good call...

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-27-09, 11:16 AM

Pick #1 Result: [W] Serving (15-0)

By the way that Cipolla one, there must have been some late injury news because Hernych went from a -130 favorite at my book to close to -300 pre-match. Results show people knew something. I'm waiting for the ball boy to give me a towel so I can serve again!

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-27-09, 05:09 PM

Pick #2: Serving (15-0)
LOS ANGELES, CA
Robert Kendrick -260 (Spadea)
I'm usually not a proponent of laying this much chalk, but this could be a chance to whip an ace down. Spadea has been mostly hapless on tour in 2009 and his career certainly appears to be heading into the sunset at age 35. His last hard court win came in April in a Challenger event against the #231 ranked player in the world. In ATP events this year, Spadea is 3-7 with 2 of those wins coming during qualifying rounds. His lone ATP win came back in February at Delray beach against Gremelmayer on hard court. Kendrick will be happy to return to the harder surface where his best weapon (serve) comes into play. He also hasn't had a ton of ATP success in 2009, but on hard courts - he's 11-6 this season with a win over Soderling in Miami. Spadea has lost his last 5 straight on hard courts and if his match against Sela at Indy last week is any indication, If Kendrick can hold his own serve and get it rolling early - Spadea should offer enough break point opportunities to give Kendrick all he needs to take this.

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-27-09, 06:46 PM

Pick #2 Result: [W] Serving (30-0)

That was a 130 mph serve painting the outside of the box. Double bagel. 36 minute match.

**Mendozaaaa** · 07-27-09, 06:50 PM

Easier than a desparate, free prositute who's waiting in your living room when your home from work!

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-28-09, 12:19 AM

Pick #3: Serving (30-0)
UMAG, CROATIA
Ruben Ramirez-Hidalgo +195 (Bolelli)
Bolelli has been unseen since Wimbledon when a back issue forced him to withdraw. On clay this season, the Italian is 6-6. A win over Berdych at the French and one over Soderling at Monte Carlo were probably the most notable although Soderling had yet to find the scorching form he's had from the French to the present & Berdych had withdrawn with a leg injury a week or so before the French, so his health may not have been 100% when they met. Hidalgo is a clay courter thru & thru as he's played the majority of his 2009 season on the surface. A lot of that has been on the Challenger level though & he's still only around 55% win rate in his last 50 on dirt. He does have two qualifying matches here at Ugrad under his belt as he both served adequately & made the most of his opponent's break opportunities. Hidalgo does have 8 matches all-time on this court, while Bolelli has yet to play one at this tournament and has been out of action for a bit over a month. I think with both having played recently, I could understand the odds where they stand. However, with no real way to gauge where Bolelli is going to be coming into this & with Hidalgo having the match experience, think he'll have a shot to potentially wear the Italian down in 3 if he can continue to serve reasonably and make the best of those break opps.

Pick #4: Serving
GSTAAD, SWITZERLAND
Kristof Vliegen -110 (Bellucci)
As the odds suggest, there isn't a ton to separate Vliegen & Bellucci. Both won clay court Challengers in early July. Vliegen though for me has been the more consistent dirt baller in 2009. He made the QFs in Belgrade in May and then made the QFs of a Challenger on clay at the end of June prior to his win in The Netherlands. Prior to his win in Italy, Bellucci had lost four straight matches on clay and 6 out of 7 on the surface. Most of his clay success in 2009 has come on South America soil outside of the Italian win, while Vliegen (Belgian) has shown he is more at home on European clay. Both have big serves that can be big weapons, so it may be a simple equation of who holds their serve best. Bellucci's only win against a player close to the Top 50 came on a hard court in March. Vliegen is in the low 50s.

**yisman** · 07-28-09, 02:43 AM

you're going to serve again before Bolelli attempts to return your serve?

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-28-09, 10:21 AM

Had to post them both before I went to sleep. LoL. I think the Vliegen one is going to be wiped out. Looks like he withdrew.

**yisman** · 07-28-09, 12:36 PM

yeah, he withdrew pre-match and was replaced.

But if you can serve again before your opponent has a chance to return... this shit is rigged, sir!

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-28-09, 12:53 PM

It's tennis. It's always rigged.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 07-28-09, 01:48 PM

Originally posted by yisman

you're going to serve again before Bolelli attempts to return your serve?

Bolelli is possibly the worst returner in the top100 - not much chance of it coming back :-)

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-28-09, 01:48 PM

Pick #3 Result: [L] Serving (30-15)

Hidalgo had an opportunity to win the 1st set tie break, but blew it. Turned it around to win the 2nd and now has completely fallen apart in the 3rd with double faults. This was like a long rally and then a complete shank on a possible forehand winner.

**yisman** · 07-28-09, 02:58 PM

Originally posted by HeeeHAWWWW

Bolelli is possibly the worst returner in the top100 - not much chance of it coming back :-)

Good point.

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-29-09, 09:36 AM

Pick #4: Serving (30-15)
GSTAAD, SWITZERLAND
Chardy -205 (Youzhny)
Youzhny won for the first time in his last 5 tournament openers by outlasting Gaudio in Round 1 here. Looking at the #s, the Russian didn't particularly serve well with his 1st serve percentage under 60. He saved himself with an admirable 2nd serve and he saved 10 of 14 break opps & he converted enough of Gaudio's breaks (6/20) to complete the 3 set win. Still after all that, he won exactly one more point that his opponent which often points to trouble in the next match. Chardy meanwhile blasted his qualifier opponent off the court in straight sets with a solid 1st serve. He also took advantage of the break opps from his opponent, converting 4 of 7. Chardy did well at this tournament last year, making the QFs while Youzhny has never made it past the 2nd round here in 3 previous tries. Youzhny had a decent Spring on Clay before the French Open, but has looked lost since then while Chardy has amped up his game and won a title on clay in Stuttgart earlier in July & may have actually been done a favor by losing in Hamburg last week fairly early to Davydenko - allowing for some extra rest heading into this tournament

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-29-09, 12:11 PM

Pick #4 Result: [W] Serving (40-15)

Chardy was a little shaky today, blowing a 5-3 lead in the 2nd and letting Youzhny win some games in the 3rd after going up 5-0. Eventually won the last set, 6-3. This was like a longer than expected rally with a nice forehand winner to cap it off. Gotta find a good one to finish off this service game!

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-29-09, 03:16 PM

Pick #5: Serving (40-15)
PALO ALTO, CA
Nadia Petrova +137 (Sharapova)
Sharapova labored through 3 sets in defeating Sugiyami in her opener at the Bank of West Classic. She's still searching for consistent form as evidenced by her blowing a 5-2 2nd set lead, but then recovering for a 6-1 runaway in the 3rd. That sort of uneven play against a quality opponent like Petrova could prove lethal though. Petrova had her own troubles against Mattek-Sands in her opener, winning in 3. Petrova's 1st serve though was especially dominant, winning over 80% of the points for the Russian. With Sharapova still rounding back into form, this is a good opportunity for Petrova to exact some revenge for the heart breaking loss she suffered at Maria's racket at the French Open, losing 8-6 in the 3rd.

**cuteboy86hi** · 07-29-09, 03:21 PM

Yes that 1-6 record has to improve.Put in a karlovic ace.

**yisman** · 07-29-09, 03:25 PM

" for the heart breaking loss she suffered at Maria's racket"

I prefer "...for the heart-breaking loss she suffered at the string of Maria's racket."

**moses millsap** · 07-29-09, 03:29 PM

Good luck on Petrova, I like her as well.

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-29-09, 04:49 PM

Her serving today blows. Sharapova's got the nerves working thus far, saved all her breakers and has been able to overcome her double faults. Petrova apparently is trying to match her double for double. May need to go for a big chalk ace to avoid going to Deuce in this first game!

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-29-09, 04:51 PM

Play #5 Result: [L] Serving (40-30)

Someday I'll actually stick to my rule on wagering on a match involving two Russians. It ain't over, but it's over.

**yisman** · 07-29-09, 04:57 PM

She rolled Petrova in under an hour.

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-29-09, 05:09 PM

I saw 1:01 ... that's nothing compared to Spadea getting double bageled in 36 minutes. Quite frankly, winning 6-1, 6-2 ... I would have expected it to be quicker.

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-30-09, 01:39 AM

Play #6: Serving (40-30)
UMAG, CROATIA
Fabio Fognini -145 (Bolelli)
I payed great attention to Bolelli's 1st rounder having gone against him with Hidalgo. Hidalgo played like horse shit, but still took it to a 3rd set before he bailed out with a bagel. Bolelli's 1st serve was solid, but he did offer up ample break opps & also had trouble converting the multitude of break opps given out by Hidalgo (4/16). Bolelli hasn't progressed past the 2nd round in a clay court tournament since April. Fognini meanwhile is on a nice streak on dirt, having won a Challenger in Italy to start off July and then claiming wins over Mathieu & Davydenko in Stuttgart. He also took Hanescu & Soderling - two in-form clay courters - to 3 setters in the past couple of weeks. His first serve was steady in Round 1 (80% points won) & he will need more of the same to win again. He has beaten Bolelli twice in their careers, both on hard courts where neither is particularly effective. With Bolelli coming off a long down-time from Wimbledon to this tournament, Fognini has the form edge and should be confident enough to carry through.

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-30-09, 11:53 AM

Play #6 Result: [L] Serving (Deuce)
Out thought myself by not taking Ferrero at a bigger price over Starace. Shank-ola!

Play #7: Serving (Deuce)
LOS ANGELES, CA
Leonardo Mayer -145 (Kunitsyn)
Simply following the money on this one. From the information I am seeing there has been a fairly heavy swing toward Mayer for this one meaning there could be some inside info (injury/whatever) that has been found. Even without that, Kunitsyn isn't exactly trustworthy on this surface - look at this match against Odesnik last week in Indianapolis. Mayer has a wicked serve and even though he is more of a clay courter, he seems to have the game that may work well on a quick hard surface. Hopefully the money is right here and with this substantial movement, I'll give it a whirl.

**yisman** · 07-30-09, 04:28 PM

exceptionally tight one.

6-7 7-6 1-1

in the third set

**MexicanStallion** · 07-30-09, 04:30 PM

He is choking. Up 3-0 in the 2nd set and gave it away.

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-30-09, 04:37 PM

We'll see if the money was right because Kunitsyn choked a 4-1 lead in the 1st set tie break, so he probably should have won this already. The way this is going, could be a 3rd tie break in the mix. Double faults by Mayer aren't helping any. 8 so far.

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-30-09, 04:56 PM

Play #7 Result: [W] Serving (ADV-40)

The money trail worked on this one although there did not appear to be any "seen" fix or injury as the money change would have suggested, but a win is a win is a win!

**yisman** · 07-30-09, 04:58 PM

Given the odds, I say Kunitsyn was actually the right side, even though he lost.

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-30-09, 05:01 PM

Well I believe he (Kunitsyn) was the favorite when the lines came out, but like I said there was a heavy swing to make Mayer the favorite by match time.

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-30-09, 05:16 PM

Play #8: Serving (ADV-40)
PALO ALTO, CALIFORNIA
Marion Bartoli -185 (Oudin)
Oudin is a talented American youngster who showed some of her promise with a run to the 4th round at Wimbledon. She's also gotten through qualifying and an opening round win at this event with hardly a sweat. Bartoli had some major yips on serve with 9 double faults yesterday, but showed her class by winning going away 6-3 in the 2nd set against Morita. Oudin for me is still learning to tame her game on hard courts with her track record showing that once she goes up against tougher competition (anyone ranked in the Top 50 or so) on the hard surface, she is still a bit over matched. Bartoli beat Oudin arguably on a surface in April (clay) that Oudin is much better at than Bartoli already in her career. Bartoli though is stronger on hard courts at this stage as her Spring showed. She made the QFs at the Australian Open, made the 3rd round in Dubai before retiring & won the event in Monterrey. Bartoli lost in the final of this event last year, but that was her best showing here. She's crashed out in the 1st round of a couple hard court tourneys this year, but looks like she sticks around if she can get past that 1st round. She'll need to serve more consistently today, but if she's here mentally, she should show the teenager the door.