Serve's Up: Set #1

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-30-09, 09:44 PM

Play #8 Result: [W] Game EP36 (1-0)
Betting Record Game #1: 5-3 (+1.55)

I'll take it. On to Game 2.

**yisman** · 07-30-09, 11:18 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Well I believe he (Kunitsyn) was the favorite when the lines came out, but like I said there was a heavy swing to make Mayer the favorite by match time.

Right, I'm saying based on the closing odds.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-03-09, 12:14 PM

Play #9: Returning (Set: 1-0, Game 0-0)
WASHINGTON, D.C.
Robert Kendrick +125 (Youzhny)
Absolutely nothing that indicates that Youzhny is ready to turn around what has been a free-fall for him in 2009. Outside of a three tournament stretch in late April-early May where he played fairly well, Youzhny has failed to find much, if any form. He's just 3-7 in his last 10 matches and his hard court form in 2009 has been miserable with a 2-5 record this year. Kendrick meanwhile has done some damage on hard courts this season with an 8-3 record over his last three hard court tournaments. The serve is what the American relies on mainly to inflict his will on his foes. He'll need that serve if he has a chance to win today. The Russian is just .500 in his last 50 matches on U.S. soil, while Kendrick is winning over 70% on home turf.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-03-09, 02:09 PM

Play #10: Returning (In-Action)
LOS ANGELES, CA
Shahar Peer -220 (Rodionova)
Laying bigger chalk on WTA matches always breaks out the Maalox, but this one is a good spot I think. Rodionova has not won a main draw WTA hard court match in 2009. Her lone hard court wins have come in qualifying and at the ITF level. In fact, you have to go back to Bali last September to find her with a WTA main draw win on hard courts and that was due to retirement of her opponent. Her last actual win came a little over one year ago in Montreal. Peer meanwhile has been steady on the hard stuff this season, winning 9 and losing 7. All 7 losses have come to players in the Top 30 or so. She has a 3-3 lifetime record at this event with the losses coming to Stosur, Razzno & Dementieva. Rodionova has one main draw win in LA, coming in 2006. Otherwise, her lone wins have come in qualifying. She does have two matches under her belt in the qualis, but also got blasted by Peer in 2007 in their lone encounter, a 6-1, 6-1 win on hard court in Bangkok.

**King of Picks** · 08-03-09, 02:19 PM

I like your Kendrick pick especially with his serve being so overpowering. I have a little over $500 in my account and am putting it all on him. I belive Kendrick wins in straight sets and cashes my ticket but good luck to you as well

**cuteboy86hi** · 08-03-09, 03:48 PM

with u on both kendrick and peer

**"Sic"** · 08-03-09, 03:49 PM

did someone just choke? unreal..was Kendrick up 3-0 or 4-0?

**cuteboy86hi** · 08-03-09, 03:49 PM

oh youzhny got the break back

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-03-09, 04:48 PM

Originally posted by "Sic"

did someone just choke? unreal..was Kendrick up 3-0 or 4-0?

He was as close as 5-2 in the 1st and F-ing lost 5 straight games. Dude bounces back to win the 2nd and then sticks his thumb up his ass in the 3rd. F-ing Rodionova retired down a set & down 4-1 in the 2nd ... unreal.

**"Sic"** · 08-03-09, 05:32 PM

I was on Kendrick myself..Hoping Dancevic rolls in his match like Dev Varmen is

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-04-09, 12:18 PM

Play #9 Result: [L] (Set: 1-0, Game: 0-15)
Play #10 Result: CANCELLED due to retirement

Play #10: Returning (0-15)
LOS ANGELES, CA
Daniela Hantuchova -175 (Oudin)
Hantuchova has been pretty steady on hard courts in 2009, going 9-5. The losses have come mainly to players inside the Top 30 with the exception of losing to Razzano who was ranked in the high 50s. Oudin is a talent, but she has yet to prove she can step up and win one against someone inside the Top 50 or so. That includes a loss to Hantuchova on the hard stuff in Miami in March. Oudin does have the edge of playing the qualis here, but Hantuchova despite a patchy record at the LA event should have just enough class over the younger American to get through after a battle today.

**"Sic"** · 08-04-09, 01:00 PM

GL.Oudin is only 17..I like Daniela in this one also

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-04-09, 04:31 PM

Play #10 Result: [W] (Set: 1-0, Game: 15-15)

Hantuchova was a little shaky in the first, but got herself settled and pulled away for the 3 set win.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-05-09, 12:34 PM

Play #11 (Set: 1-0, Game: 15-15)
LOS ANGELES, CA
Jie Zheng +115 (Vesnina)
Vesnina crushed Szavay in her opener, but that may have been more of an indictment of Szavay trying to acclimate to hard courts and being unable to do so. Zhenge struggled some against a qualifier, but pulled through in 3 sets. Both have had some solid success on hard courts this season with Vesnina making the final of the Auckland tournament to start the year and Zheng making the 4th round at the Aussie Open & the semis in Monterrey. These two have met twice, including a clay court encounter in May. Zheng won both. Both were 3 setters. Zheng has played her best tennis on hard surfaces in '09 and does fairly well in the US with a 10-5 record on US hard courts over the last two years with Vesinina going 8-7 on US hard courts in that same span. Expecting a close match here.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-05-09, 03:26 PM

Play #11 Result: [W] Returning (30-15)

Zheng bobbled around in the 2nd set, but steamrolled Vesnina in the 3rd to finish it off. A blistering forehand winner down the line!

**yisman** · 08-05-09, 04:25 PM

good pick

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-06-09, 12:45 PM

Play #12: (Set: 1-0, Game: 30-15)
LOS ANGELES, CA
Flavia Pennetta -150 (Petrova)
One of those spots again that I like to try. Petrova struggled to put away Peer yesterday and actually won less points than Peer did for the match. That often times signals trouble for a player in their next match. The Russian served up 10 double faults vs. Peer & escaped despite winning just 27% of her points on 2nd serve. Petrova does have a solid track record at this event, but so does Pennetta who was a finalist here in 2008. The Italian's serve has been solid against inferior competition in her first two matches here. Career-wise, Pennetta has Petrova's number. She's beaten her 4 of 5 times, including a win on clay earlier this year and two hard court wins in 2008. Petrova's consistency is the question mark right now, so with a confident Pennetta, I believe she can battle through here.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-06-09, 03:44 PM

Play #12 Result: [W] (40-15)

Pennetta whacked Petrova in straights. A blistering forehand return on serve. Double break point for EP36.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-06-09, 03:57 PM

Play #13: (Set: 1-0, Game: 40-15)
LOS ANGELES, CA
Juan Martin Del Potro -240 (Hewitt)
The price would likely be much higher here if not for the short memory of Hewitt ousting JMDP from Wimbledon in straights. The switch to hard court though should heavily favor Del Potro who has a 72% winning percentage on the hard stuff in his short career. He won this tournament last year as it was part of his meteoric rise in the rankings thanks to the hard court swing. DP played solid tennis on hard courts early in 2009 losing only to mostly top tier guys like Federer, Nadal & Murray. Hewitt is a capable player, but his hard court form has been .500 this year. Del Potro struggled early against Lu, but turned it around and pounded his way to a 3 set win in his opener. Hewitt had some trouble with Sela in the 2nd round and the step-up in competition plus some minor knee irritation reportedly & revenge on the mind of the Argentine should mean a tough match, but a Del Potro win at the end of the day.

**yisman** · 08-06-09, 05:15 PM

I was thinking about a small play on Hewitt before I saw your post.

Your rationale is not great, though. You shouldn't take chalk if you expect a tough match.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-06-09, 09:00 PM

Play #13 Result: [W] (Set: 2-0)
Game #2 Betting Record 4-1 (+3.15)

Hey just because it's going to be tough doesn't mean chalk isn't the right play. It was a nail biter & by tough, I don't always mean a 3 set tie break ending like it was ... tough for me sometimes means 7-5, 7-5. I'll take it any ways. I thought Del Potro would have put him away a little better on hard court, but I guess that's the crafty vet making him work. Hewitt's a fun guy to watch.

**yisman** · 08-06-09, 09:17 PM

I think the way the match played out showed that Hewitt was the right play.

Those matches can go either way, and I would not want to be risking -240 on the bounces going one way.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-07-09, 07:15 PM

Play #14 (Set #3, Leading 2-0)
WASHINGTON, D.C.
John Isner +120 (Berdych)
The big boy Isner is on a tremendous hard court roll right now with his serve as usual leading the way. I think the price shows you the respect Isner has earned over the past few tournaments as normally against a quality Top 25 player like Berdych, Isner would be a larger underdog. Isner's serve has been winning 70-80% on 1st serve and in some matches nearly as well on 2nd serve. A repeat of anything close to that gives him a real chance to beat a higher ranked player who isn't nearly in the same form as the American.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-07-09, 10:39 PM

Play #14 Result: [W] (Set: 3-0, Game: 15-0)

**MexicanStallion** · 08-07-09, 10:49 PM

You are on a nice run here. Good work

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-08-09, 01:33 PM

Play #15: (Set: 2-0, Game: 15-0)
WASHINGTON, D.C.
Juan Martin Del Potro -155 (Gonzalez)
Del Potro has shown an affinity for playing on US hard courts in his young career & hard courts in general. More importantly, he is only losing to top tier players when he falls short on this surface. In 2009, he won the Auckland tourney, lost to Federer at the Australian, Nadal at Indian Wells & Murray at Miami. He has made the QFs or better in each of the last 9 hard court tourneys he has played in. Berdych is the only "non Big 4" player to beat him on the surface in that span and that came late in 2008. JMDP has a fantastic 31-5 record on hard courts since this time one year ago. Gonzo has been solid in his own right, going 21-9 on hard surfaces since this time a year ago. Gonzo has lost 4 of his last 5 vs. Top 10 players on hard court with that last win coming against James Blake in the Olympics last year. Del Potro will need to avoid the lulls that saw him drop sets to Lu & Hewitt in his two matches here, but for me he displayed some moxy in outlasting the veteran Hewitt the other night and it might have given him a little bit of a wake up call.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-08-09, 06:44 PM

Play #15 Result: [W] (Set: 2-0, Game: 30-0)

Rock 'n roll baby.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-08-09, 07:31 PM

Play #16: (Set: 2-0, Game: 30-0)
LOS ANGELES, CA
Flavia Pennetta +120 (Sharapova)
Sharapova has been living on the edge with double digit double faults being routine for her this tournament. She's made up for it by pounding the weak 2nd serves of her opponents for points. Pennetta has been very consistent here and seeks her 2nd straight finals appearance here in Los Angeles. If Pennetta keeps her serve steady as it's been, Sharapova may not get as many of those 2nd chance opps to get easier points. Have to believe Pennetta will make her pay for the doubles.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-08-09, 11:23 PM

Play #16 Result: [W] (Set: 2-0, Game: 40-0)

Rollin' at discount prices. 'Pova laid down 16 double faults. Pennetta was a lot more shaky than she'd been all tournament. Awesome final in Washington with Roddick & Del Potro - see A-Rod as a -122 fave at Pinnacle and Del Potro at +113. Tough call.

**shhhhh22** · 08-08-09, 11:28 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Play #16 Result: [W] (Set: 2-0, Game: 40-0)

Rollin' at discount prices. 'Pova laid down 16 double faults. Pennetta was a lot more shaky than she'd been all tournament. Awesome final in Washington with Roddick & Del Potro - see A-Rod as a -122 fave at Pinnacle and Del Potro at +113. Tough call.

Very nice streak you got goin there man

I think Del Potro has to be the right call... Roddick has been very very shaky lately. taken to 3 sets vs. Isner. seems to me like he's saving himself for US Open, just doens't seem to be going all out. Of course that's just my take... BOL on your continued picks. I watch with much anticipation!

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-08-09, 11:38 PM

I don't know, guys like Isner you almost have to throw out matches against them because he's such a different animal. I think I am leaning Del Potro partly though because Roddick has played two monster serving schlubs in Karlovic & Isner while Del Potro has played better all around guys in Hewitt & Gonzalez in the last two rounds. It will be harder for Roddick to adjust to an all-around game I think, not that he can't. I'm hoping my book offers # of games betting for this one because this seems like a good set-up for a three setter possibly.

**yisman** · 08-09-09, 01:12 AM

I'll be looking at Pinnacle's over/under for games. Should go three sets.

Roddick played the two other guys with huge serves in back to back matches. And he played them close, of course. It's usually all about the tiebreakers when you end up with those.

**dennisback** · 08-09-09, 07:53 AM

Im leaning under 24.5

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-09-09, 01:42 PM

Play #17: (Set: 2-0, Game: 40-0)
WASHINGTON, D.C.
Andy Roddick -133 (Del Potro)
The money is backing Roddick as his price has drifted up. Del Potro beat him in L.A. last year, but that was then, this is now. My reasoning for Roddick today starts with fitness in what is otherwise a fairly even match-up. Both Del Potro & Fernando Gonzalez complained of the heat in Washington yesterday & that may have explained their lethargic play. Can one day in the heat acclimate you to it? Likely not. We all know the story behind Roddick and his training that has paid off with better fitness and Roddick seemingly more adaptive to hot conditions than the majority of his opponents. Roddick must maintain that high percentage of winners off his 1st serve to survive today, but I think Del Potro's low 1st serve percentage may catch up with him. He's been serving in the low 50s, so plenty of 2nd serve opportunities. Roddick has been winning between 45-50% of those 2nd serves from his D.C. opponents this week. If it's 50% or better, he'll have the Argentine in trouble. Del Potro has also dropped 3 of his last 4 against Top 10 player on hard courts.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-09-09, 05:03 PM

Play #17 Result: [L] (Set: 2-0, Game: 40-15)

Too bad I was a putz and thought against my first impression on the over, although Roddick really should have finished Del Potro off in the 2nd. Very impressed with DP's mental strength today. Fun match.