The French Open

[EaglesPhan36]

Draws are out. Interactive ones available here:

Men's: http://www.rolandgarros.com/en_FR/sc.../ms/index.html

Women's: http://www.rolandgarros.com/en_FR/sc.../ws/index.html

I'll be doing some homework on it this weekend and posting my futures selections. Come join the party & talk about Roland Garros matches here all tourney long.

[EaglesPhan36]

1st impressions

Just a first look at the men's bracket and Roger Federer might have gotten the easiest draw assuming Monfils does indeed withdraw. He has Roddick at the top of the bracket and then in his half, Blake, Berdych, Mathieu ... no one who can really hurt him at all. I think he got done a tremendous favor with this draw.

Nadal's bracket has some tricky spots. Ferrer or Soderling possibly and Verdasco likely in the Quarters. Not that they will beat him, but I think he got stuck with a tougher draw as the #1 seed than you'd expect.

Djokovic's is pretty breezy till the quarters and Del Potro potentially. He has Robredo and maybe Ferrero in his half, but he can beat them.

Murray's is interesting. Simon is in the bottom half, but I honestly don't think he makes it past the 2nd round if that far. Simon faces Odesnik who has played decent on dirt than likely Fernando Gonzalez who I think would beat him rather easily on this surface. Murray has Tiparevic, F.Lopez, Stepanek & Cilic in his portion of the draw. I really think I might like Gonzalez to come out of this side.

[cuteboy86hi]

really looking forward to RG
lost a ton of money betting on american sports which i shouldn't have done.Hopefully RG unites me with all the dead n gone.........the money not the people.

[EaglesPhan36]

1st impressions

Safina has a pretty tough bracket based on potential. She could face Rezai or Brito in the top half of her bracket, both capable clay courters. Down low, she'll get a huge test in the quarters from Azarenka or Suarez-Navarro. I would include Ivanovic, but I doubt she'll be around to trouble Safina.

Venus also has a touchy bracket. Szavay in a potential 3rd round match could oust her. Szavay took a set off her in Acapulco earlier this year & comes into the French having beaten Azarenka, Rezai and Pennetta in her tune-up. If she skates there, Venus still has A.Bondarenko (very hot right now) or possible Dulko or Mauresmo in the Round of 16. Bottom side should shape for Zvonareva to get through if her long layoff (month plus) doesn't leave her vulnerable to Petrova or Sharapova if she can pull it together. This is a pretty wide open bracket. I see 4-5 players who could feasibly make the semis out of here and Venus wouldn't be my top choice because this is easily her worst major.

Jankovic/Dementieva in the same bracket. Wow. This one is easily the most competitive. Jankovic's road to winning this portion could have Chakvetadze in the 3rd (she's resurgent), Wozniacki in the 4th and then Dementieva in the quarters. She'll earn it if she makes it. I'll be looking more, but I think I like Wozniacki as a dark horse in this bracket. She's beaten Dementieva on clay and made 3 clay finals this Spring. She's also +2000 in futures at Carib right now.

Serena has an easier bracket, but her health is a major question mark. Zakapalova could bite her in Round 1 if Serena isn't fit. Up top in this bracket, I like Kuznetsova. She had a good Spring on clay and beat Safina. There's some middle players here like A.Radwanska, Schnyder & Pennetta ... but this bracket IMO belongs to a healthy Serena or Kuznetsova. Even though Kuzy chokes in majors more often than not, this could be her shot to run to another Final possibly?

[EaglesPhan36]

Men's Futures
Novak Djokovic +600 [1 unit]
I've preached this for most of the latter part of the clay court season. I believe Djokovic is the best clay court player in the bigger tournaments not named Nadal and maybe just the 2nd most consistent on clay right now, period.The bottom portion of his draw should be relatively easy. He opens with Lapentti. The Ecuadoran did make the 3rd round last year at Roland Garros, but he's just 8-29 all-time vs. Top 10 players. 2nd round would be Dabul or Stakhovsky, probably Dabul who is better on dirt. Dabul will be happy to get his 2nd ever Grand Slam match win heading into this one and should be fairly easy fodder for the Serb. Round 3 will be the first moderate test I foresee. Ljubicic, Kohlschreiber or Ferrero. Likely Ljubicic who is the better clay courter of that possible trio. Djokovic has beaten him twice on clay, including straight sets last month. Ljubicic could get a set, but Djokovic moves better and moves on. Round 4 looks like Robredo or Seppi. Djokovic leads Robredo head-2-head (5-1) and destroyed him in April on dirt. Djokovic is 6 for 6 against Seppi and beat him twice on clay this month. Seppi did steal a set in Belgrade and then Novak beat him 6-1, 6-2 in the next two sets. So that gets him to the quarters. The top half of the bracket has Del Potro, Andreev, Tsonga/Benneteau, maybe Juan Monaco as a dark horse. Tough for me to see Tsonga getting that far on this surface. Benneteau is a threat perhaps to upset the apple cart here as he's played well at the French a few times. However, fatigue may do him in with his run in Austria this past week. Del Potro has some tricky matches. Llodra to start. Troicki likely in Round 2 and then Round 3 likely against any of three solid clay courters - Arguello, Bellucci or most likely Andreev. In any case, Djokovic whipped Del Potro on clay in April and hasn't dropped a set to him in 3 matches. If someone else sneaks in here, that would be even better. If Novak maintains his form of the Spring on clay through these rounds, I don't see him being terribly troubled. The best news for Djokovic is Rafael Nadal is not on his side of the draw until the Finals and I am quite certain that has not gone un-noticed by his camp. Nadal has been his stopping point in three straight French Opens, two at the semis and one in the quarters. A potential match with Federer would be on the books in the semis this time. Fed had owned him until this year as Djokovic has beaten him on hard court and clay in 2009. With that added confidence, I think Djokovic has an excellent shot at making the final. My plan would then be a hedge if Nadal is his opponent, which is probably a 99.9999999% likelihood.

[EaglesPhan36]

Women's Futures
Caroline Wozniacki +2000 [1 unit]
The young Dane is in a very wide open part of the draw in my opinion and she might be the one who picks up the pieces and gets out of this bracket to the semis. She's in the same half as Jankovic, but Jelena has been anything but consistent on clay this Spring. Wozniacki is 0-2 vs. Jankovic, but none have taken place on clay. Jankovic has made the semis two years in a row at Roland Garros, but I believe she was playing much more consistent tennis in the build-up to those two tries. So if Jankovic-Wozniacki is the 4th round match-up and Wozniacki gets through, who's next? Bottom half of the bracket is Dementieva. There's a couple other clay courters down there in Garrigues & Schiavone. But none possess great threats. If Dementieva survies her biggest threat (herself), then Wozniacki should have confidence again having beaten the Russian twice this year, including a clay court win in April. The biggest question about Wozniacki - is she ready to step up? She's only been to the French twice, losing in the 1st round in Year 1 and then making the 3rd round last year. She might not have a better opportunity of breaking through to a Grand Slam semifinal than this year with her solid form on dirt and the questionable form of the two more highly thought of players - Jankovic/Dementieva - that most will expect to battle it out in this bracket. If Wozniacki gets to the semis, likely she'd face Serena or Kuznetsova I think to get to the final. She's never beaten either one, but has always been competitive. In 2009, Wozniacki has played 5 tournaments on clay and made the final in 3 of those, winning once.

Safina +500 [1 unit]
I do think the Russian has a difficult draw, but her form on clay in 2009 is too hard to ignore here. She's made three consecutive clay court finals, winning two of them. She made the step up last year and made the Final at Roland Garros, losing to Ana Ivanovic. Perhaps that can give her a mental advantage that she'll desperately need to navigate her way back. If Safina can get past some of the tough gals in her draw like Suarez-Navarro and Azarenka ... she could have favorable semifinal match-up against whomever comes out of the Venus Williams bracket.

[Stacocakes]

I like your Djokovic bet.Anything is possible and he is pretty good on clay. To bad your book ****ed you with that line though..I see DJO at +1200

Good luck. If you are interested in an in-play thread during the tournament let me know and we can get one going

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah. I play at Carib. Their props aren't the best, but that's where my money is currently so I gotta run with it. I think meganie talked about having a contest thread like I had done earlier in the year for the French Open. We should have one main one where everyone can post their picks if they want and then individuals like you or I can keep our side ones.

[EaglesPhan36]

Day 1 Picks
Lisnard -135 (Sela)
You've got a match-up between one guy in Risnard who plays the majority of his matches on clay against Sela who avoids dirt like the plague. Sela has never won a main draw match at the French and mixed in some hard court matches during the clay court season, which doesn't suggest that he has much confidence on clay or cares to gain any. Lisnard meanwhile has three qualifying matches at Roland Garros under his belt and while he hasn't had much main draw success on clay, the fact that he enjoys playing on the surface could be the difference.

Odesnik +350 (Simon)
A price I couldn't avoid. Odesnik surprisingly to most has more French Open victories than Giles Simon. Odesnik made it to the third round last year at Roland Garros and showed at the Houston event this year that he is indeed a threat on dirt. Simon meanwhile has just one win in 5 tries at Roland Garros. Couple that with his lackluster form on clay this year and Odesnik seems like a solid upset special here.

[EasyR]

Day 1 Picks
Lisnard -135 (Sela)
You've got a match-up between one guy in Risnard who plays the majority of his matches on clay against Sela who avoids dirt like the plague. Sela has never won a main draw match at the French and mixed in some hard court matches during the clay court season, which doesn't suggest that he has much confidence on clay or cares to gain any. Lisnard meanwhile has three qualifying matches at Roland Garros under his belt and while he hasn't had much main draw success on clay, the fact that he enjoys playing on the surface could be the difference.

Odesnik +350 (Simon)
A price I couldn't avoid. Odesnik surprisingly to most has more French Open victories than Giles Simon. Odesnik made it to the third round last year at Roland Garros and showed at the Houston event this year that he is indeed a threat on dirt. Simon meanwhile has just one win in 5 tries at Roland Garros. Couple that with his lackluster form on clay this year and Odesnik seems like a solid upset special here.

Sella is winning that game right now and I don´t think Odesnik will beat Simon. Simon plays at home and he will have a strong fans support. But Major reason is that he is 2times better. Today I will pick those:

Stepanek-Gaudio @1,27 and Gulbis - Querrey @1,8

[meganie]

It's amazing how unclutch Simon is...Saw him getting broken when serving out a set atleast three times this year.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well Sela surprised me playing like that. Guess that is what I get for taking an obscure match. Odesnik-Simon split at 1 set each.

[EaglesPhan36]

Odesnik-Simon in the 5th set. At least I get my money's worth.

[meganie]

Love those five setters, backed Odesnik before the fourth set and sold it after he broke Simon.

Simon is fade material next round, Brands/Kendrick aren't THE clay courters, but I would be surprised if Simon wins it in straight.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah I will definitely take any capable clay courter like Odesnik against Simon here in the French when they label Simon with these ridiculous prices. 3rd round is probably the spot. Youzhny, Muller or Hanescu might be up against him.

[EasyR]

Yeah I will definitely take any capable clay courter like Odesnik against Simon here in the French when they label Simon with these ridiculous prices. 3rd round is probably the spot. Youzhny, Muller or Hanescu might be up against him.

I agree with this. Youzhny, Muller and even Hanescu are playing in better shape than Simon now. 3th will be the Simon´s final round

[EaglesPhan36]

Day 2 Plays
(Parlay)
O.Hernandez, F.Gonzalez, C.Wozniacki, Rezai, Schynder
All have solid form in their lead-ups to Roland Garros and favorable match-ups, but on stand alone would not be worth the bet at the inflated prices for a single match. Together though, the payout would be 1.67:1.

Fognini +145 (Andreev)
A seeded player is bound to lose sooner rather than later. An in-form Andreev would be the easy pick here at respectable odds of -185, but obviously there are questions - hence the price tag. Andreev had a nagging side injury that forced him to withdraw from two touraments in early May. He came back last week and lost to Del Potro in Germany in straights. Fognini knocked off some names on dirt this year: Cilic, Berdych and has some qualifying matches complete to acclimate him to the conditions. He won't have to face Gilles Simon who has ousted him from three tournaments. With Andreev's health a bit sketchy, the price is worth a toss here as even at 100%, the Italian might give Andreev a run for his money.

[EasyR]

Today I betted Andreev, Berdych and Lisicki. All those odds was about 1.5 and I am satisfied with that. Hope that your opinion about Fognini will not come true.

[The General]

Nice write-ups, EaglesPhan36

Thanks

[meganie]

Fognini +145 (Andreev)
A seeded player is bound to lose sooner rather than later. An in-form Andreev would be the easy pick here at respectable odds of -185, but obviously there are questions - hence the price tag. Andreev had a nagging side injury that forced him to withdraw from two touraments in early May. He came back last week and lost to Del Potro in Germany in straights. Fognini knocked off some names on dirt this year: Cilic, Berdych and has some qualifying matches complete to acclimate him to the conditions. He won't have to face Gilles Simon who has ousted him from three tournaments. With Andreev's health a bit sketchy, the price is worth a toss here as even at 100%, the Italian might give Andreev a run for his money.

Good one.

Fognini has certainly the game to win over Andreev, only thing that worries me is his motivation. GL

[Netprofit]

Italians are the most weakly motivated people on earth, soft like tarts when the going gets tough.

[meganie]

Some overs that I like

Roddick/Jouan OVER 28.5 +117: It's only Roddick's third clay match this year. Guess a result like 6-4 6-4 6-4 is realistic.

Martin/Federer OVER 26 -113: Martin is capable of "pushing" (=getting 9 games) Federer.

Mathieu/Recouderc OVER 32.5 +107: Doesn't matter whom Mathieu plays, more often than not he wins it the hard way.

Berdych/Bolelli OVER 38 -109: I see several melt downs during the match from either player.

Italians are the most weakly motivated people on earth, soft like tarts when the going gets tough.

Lol, so true, right before the Frenchies.

[meganie]

Simon gets -770 (!) at pinnacle. That's just ridiculous, Simon shouldn't get these odds against any player inside the top 200.

[cuteboy86hi]

OMG wawrinka almost gave me a heart attack.Had half my balance on him in a parlay.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Would have been an amazing loss - Devilder has been in traincrash form recently. I saw a chunk of this match, and Wawrinka was having real trouble finding any motivation, spraying errors all over, gave away a double break when 1-2 down. Clutch enough though, won 5 in a row to take that set, then went to sleep in the final set to take it.

He has Massu next - will surely win that too, but clear lesson here to not bet handicap or unders :-)

[Casperwaits]

Nice post. It is threads like this that make me want to bet Tennis.

[meganie]

Would have been an amazing loss - Devilder has been in traincrash form recently. I saw a chunk of this match, and Wawrinka was having real trouble finding any motivation, spraying errors all over, gave away a double break when 1-2 down. Clutch enough though, won 5 in a row to take that set, then went to sleep in the final set to take it.

He has Massu next - will surely win that too, but clear lesson here to not bet handicap or unders :-)

Are you watching it on tv? Cause most of the i-net streams only show center court matches, would've loved to see the Tipsarevic/Montanes match.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Eurosport has 7 of the courts, was 4 pounds ($6?) for a month. Tipsy-Montanes not on a televised court though, real shame - most interesting match of the day imo.

[EaglesPhan36]

It does my heart good to wake up and see some of the results of the matches I contemplated, but ruled out because they seemed anything but solid:

Skipping Tipsarevic/Montanes first off. I liked Tipsarevic, but knew this was a tough one to call. I actually saw the beat writer at tennis.com pick Montanes as his surprise semifinalist. Doh! Good win for Tipsy backers though at plus odds. I was close to including Montanes in my parlay.

I also was contemplating putting Kleybanova on the WTA side into that parlay I played. Whew! Had considered Lisicki as well. Both lost.

WTF happened to Pennetta? 6-1, 6-1 loss? Wow.

[EaglesPhan36]

Schnyder boned the parlay. That was the one I was most worried about despite her record at RG. That chick has F-ed me so many times in plays, I don't know why I bother. Fognini might be sending the match to a 5th set! Strange one there. Fogning took the 1st, 6-1 and then got killed 6-3, 6-1 in the next two. Up 5-3 now in the 4th.

[EaglesPhan36]

Another 5 set loss on my dog pick for the day. Sheesh. Andreev is in the same category as Simon for this tournament for me, if he's given too big a favorite tag .. pound the dog. Maybe I'll get one right before next weekend.

Hell I just hope ****ing Wozniacki doesn't crash out here in the 1st round and bone a futures pick on Day 2. C'mon girl!

[meganie]

Eurosport has 7 of the courts, was 4 pounds ($6?) for a month. Tipsy-Montanes not on a televised court though, real shame - most interesting match of the day imo.

Thanks, just purchased it.

[cuteboy86hi]

Another 5 set loss on my dog pick for the day. Sheesh. Andreev is in the same category as Simon for this tournament for me, if he's given too big a favorite tag .. pound the dog. Maybe I'll get one right before next weekend.

Hell I just hope ****ing Wozniacki doesn't crash out here in the 1st round and bone a futures pick on Day 2. C'mon girl!

Any idea at what time will wozniacki game resume tomorrow?I can do nothing untill this match gets decided.

[BROOKLYN BOY]

Took Fogini and that garbage O Hernandez too....would have had a huge day if those hit as I also had Bolelli, Gabashvilli and Istomin.
Bet against that girl Lopez and he came back from 2 sets down...sick about that one.

[EaglesPhan36]

Day 3
[Parlay] Monaco, Blake & Seppi
Stand alone again, I would not pay the price on any of these guys. As a trio though, it's a 1.36:1 payout. All have good advantages in their matches. Baghdatis seems allergic to clay at this point in the season, only two matches played and both were losses. His decent start on hard courts at the Aussie Open and in Johannesburg are far in the distance. Monaco just needs to mentally show up for this one. Blake actually caught some nice form in his last two clay court tourneys, while the youngster Mayer may be a bit overwhelmed by playing in a major. Mayer will be a player here when he gains more experience, but not just yet. Seppi leads Garcia-Lopez 2-0 head-2-head and GGL's only form this year came in Austria last week. Hoping that fatigue catches him and the surface switch.

After a lot of thought, I am passing on Ljubicic and Benneteau. The public has pounded those prices down pretty hefty from their openings and sapped out the value. I still think both have better than 50% shots to win, but I'll pass.

Ani +385 (Cornet)
Cornet can obviously play well here as she made the 4th round in 2008. However since that success and a nice run in her next clay court tourney in July 2008, she's 1-7 on dirt. Ani has played some tough tennis on clay and might at least make this interesting if Cornet continues to have problems.