The French Open

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-02-09, 11:45 PM

Kuznetsova +110
*Not sure if the price might get more into plus odds, but at least it shifted to even and I had to make a decision before bed time with the match kicking off at 8am ET. Short & sweet for me here. I liked Kuznetsova in this portion of the draw pre-tournament and I am going to stick with my gut here. She's only dropped three matches on clay in 2009 and is the only person to beat Safina on the surface this Spring. Her form has been consistent, the only question mark is her mental strength on the big stage against a big game player like Serena. There's no better set-up for Kuzy here. Her preferred surface that helps negate the advantage Serena would have naturally IMO. Bottom line, Serena has had a Federer-ish run if you will at RG. Two brickhouse dominant matches and two hard fought three set wins against lesser opponents. Couple that with her uneven clay court play/fitness and I'll take my shot here.

Actually got it at +110, so that's cool with me. That was what I was waiting for, probably be Serena in two dominant sets now.

**illmatick** · 06-03-09, 08:20 AM

looking good early, grabbed her at -105 couldnt stay awake for the plus money

**xxdjstriderxx** · 06-03-09, 08:28 AM

williams will come back to win.
nike called it in.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-03-09, 08:49 AM

I'm not doubting that. This could be about to turn into the Australian Open again. This was the big question. Can Kuznetsova close one out. So far the answer is NO. She's probably gonna need Serena to choke on-serve in this set to win. If it goes to 3, Kuzy is likely toast.

**illmatick** · 06-03-09, 08:51 AM

yup, the choke is on

**xxdjstriderxx** · 06-03-09, 08:54 AM

kuz is on empty

**"Sic"** · 06-03-09, 08:54 AM

wow talk about a choke job in the second...no way she wins it now

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-03-09, 08:56 AM

She might as well lose the 3rd set 6-0 and just save anyone from giving a crap.

**xxdjstriderxx** · 06-03-09, 08:58 AM

if serena takes this set, kuz will have nothing left for the 3rd.
crucial set for williams.

**xxdjstriderxx** · 06-03-09, 09:00 AM

Serenaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

**illmatick** · 06-03-09, 09:03 AM

go monfils!!!!!!

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-03-09, 09:03 AM

Aussie Open was 7-5, 5-7, 6-1 Serena. Wish Kuzy would pretend she's playing another Russian, then they could both choke.

**xxdjstriderxx** · 06-03-09, 09:06 AM

serena should take the last set easily.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-03-09, 09:21 AM

I'll use Lou's ideaology to ease this loss. I got the best value for the price on Kuznetsova, so the outcome is irrelevant.

**xxdjstriderxx** · 06-03-09, 09:29 AM

kuz putting up a fight, nike says dont make it too obvious

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-03-09, 09:30 AM

I'll bet my left hand that Kuznetsova lets Serena break her right back at 3-3.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-03-09, 09:37 AM

Figures. No left hand now and Kuznetsova will still choke.

**"Sic"** · 06-03-09, 09:41 AM

She wanted to wait till 4-4 then choke so Serena can serve out the match

**xxdjstriderxx** · 06-03-09, 09:47 AM

5-4 kuz

**xxdjstriderxx** · 06-03-09, 09:52 AM

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-03-09, 09:56 AM

Well at least she didn't roll over this time, but I'm pretty much counting on Serena winning in the end. The only plus is it's not a tie breaker format, at least they keep going regular games until someone wins by two. Still, it's inevitable.

**"Sic"** · 06-03-09, 09:56 AM

wow I thought they'd tiebreak

**"Sic"** · 06-03-09, 09:59 AM

OMG we won...yee...WOW

**illmatick** · 06-03-09, 09:59 AM

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-03-09, 10:00 AM

Kuzy, you beautiful ugly Russian bitch! I can't believe she actually won. Thanks for choking on serve Serena. That was about the only way it could happen!

**xxdjstriderxx** · 06-03-09, 10:01 AM

amazing.

**cuteboy86hi** · 06-03-09, 10:02 AM

**"Sic"** · 06-03-09, 10:03 AM

Now I need Del Potro first set

**cuteboy86hi** · 06-03-09, 10:05 AM

stosur v Kuz
safina v cibulkova

All russian final?Stosur might have a say cos her game is very powerful.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-03-09, 10:05 AM

Well that's two for two for me the last two days in not pulling off of plays that I thought going into the French were going to happen. Gonzalez and now Kuznetsova. Pretty rare for me, I usually read too much and talk myself out of making a play in tune with what my instincts were. Looks like the first set of Federer-Monfils lived up to the hype score wise at least.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-03-09, 10:06 AM

Originally posted by "Sic"

Now I need Del Potro first set

I'll be happy so long as JMDP wins in 3 or 4 sets. 4 nets me a bigger profit. 3 nets me a slight one. Heck at this point, I'll definitely take either. Getting Kuznetsova was a big key to my day.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-03-09, 10:10 AM

Originally posted by cuteboy86hi

stosur v Kuz
safina v cibulkova

All russian final?Stosur might have a say cos her game is very powerful.

I was thinking that a round ago that if all went down where I thought it might, we would see Safina-Kuznetsova Part III for the Spring. They've squared off in two clay finals already, splitting them. I hope that's the Final, will provide a better match and I think a chance for me to hedge my Safina future if Kuznetsova can net a decent price.

Won't completely discount the others, but they're both low on experience at this level. Kuznetsova may have finally gotten over the hump with today's win.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-03-09, 12:07 PM

Looks like I'll be making just the small profit on the Del Potro match. He just got up a break in the 3rd and should close out it out in straights.

**cuteboy86hi** · 06-03-09, 12:17 PM

robredo can only win against minions

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-03-09, 01:02 PM

Gonzalez -145
Soderling +110

Bookmaker lines that I see. Pinnacle has it -130 & +120. Gonzalez is my first thought here. I know Soderling has been damn impressive, but Gonzo has still been a very consistent clay court player who doesn't get much fanfare for being so and does have the edge despite Soderling's seemingly perfect play in two straight matches. Gonzo does give Soderling an entirely different look than either Davydenko or Nadal, which should help. Gonna have to look more and watch the line before making a final assessment. Safina is a monster favorite as you'd expect. Only value on that one might be betting on the exact result, but Safina in straights is probably still gonna cost you -200 to -250. So that one's probably a pass.