2016 US/European Summer Series (Inc US Open) picks

[Jeff_Black]

ATP US Open 2000, Mens Singles, R2
Jeremy Chardy vs Grigor Dimitrov
Total Score: Over 37.5 @ 1.90 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP US Open 2000, Mens Singles, R2
Feliciano Lopez vs Joao Sousa
Handicap: Joao Sousa +4.5 @ 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP US Open 2000, Mens Singles, R2
Alessandro Gianessi vs Stan Wawrinka
Handicap: Alessandro Gianessi +9.5 @ 1.925 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP US Open 2000, Mens Singles, R2
Paul-Henri Mathieu vs Nicolas Mahut
Handicap: Paul Henri Mathieu +3.5 @ 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP US Open 2000, Mens Singles, R2
Viktor Troicki vs Jared Donaldson
Moneyline: Viktor Troicki @ 1.746 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Slightly riskier card today but we'll see how it goes. Normally never like to back players I don't know as well and what to expect with a big line but I normally make the exception to that when it comes to taking on Stan because I had similar success doing it last year (also posted on my US Open thread then)
Anytime I see Henri Mathieu against a scrub that can lose as a favourite I take. I remember a few years back he did it against Muller in 5 sets and I was surprised he was only +3 and well, learnt the lesson the hard way then.

Was actually struggling to find a good card yesterday but with the trend of a lot of players dropping sets it was easy to pick some of the lowly set overs bar the one mistake so was happy with that. Pretty stoked to be at worst 3-2 and potentially 4-1 on today.
Hopefully backing less totals pays off, I think they are tougher to pick and we may see some more three setters.

[Jeff_Black]

And with Nadal's win it brings us to a 4-1 day and a 9-3-3 overall for the US Open.

[Lightning]

I loved Troicki's price as well, but I decided against it because I'm still slightly wary of Donaldson's home town hero kind of vibe. He beat Goffin, so he must be playing at a pretty good level, and Troicki's that kind of guy to screw up what looks like a gimme match.

You'd also hope that Chardy doesn't entirely switch off aha

[Jeff_Black]

Yeah seems like he did exactly just that lol

Well I can't complain with a 3-2 day which brings the total to 12-5-3 overall

[SBRMAN23]

Kyle Edmund's a good play tomorrow?

[Jeff_Black]

ATP US Open 2000, Mens Singles, R3
Rafael Nadal vs Andrey Kuznetsov
Set Handicap: Rafael Nadal -2.5 sets @ 1.751 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP US Open 2000, Mens Singles, R3
Lucas Pouille vs Roberto Bautista Agut
Total Score: Over 37.0 Games @ 1.961 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP US Open 2000, Mens Singles, R3
Jo Wilfried Tsonga vs Kevin Anderson
Total Score: Under 42.5 @ 1.90 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP US Open 2000, Mens Singles, R3
John Isner vs Kyle Edmund
Total Score: Over 42.0 @ 1.925 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

Kyle Edmund's a good play tomorrow?

I don't know, I was looking at the match up and think its a tough one to call. Ive taken the over to respect Edmund's form but also with how Isner will be hard to break here. Hoping for a tiebreak or two and four sets at least. Can see it going five again though.

[Lightning]

I still can't believe the value on Nadal... he's smoking guys left right and centre and there are still amazing lines. Loving a lot of the overs tonight, agree with you on Pouille/Agut. I think that'll come in easily. When you talk about unders in the Anderson match, are you thinking that Tsonga will romp it in, or Anderson?

[Jeff_Black]

I can see Tsonga doing it in three, I don't know I'm trying not to look too much into Andersons good run last year where he fell flat against Stan despite being able to beat in in best of three sets. The U.S. is Tsongas weakest out of the four but then again I thought Gasquet would win in three sets so you never mnow with the french! Haha
but I felt like the murray match at Wimbledon was a bit of a sign of his maturity and as well all know Tsonga can quit when the going gets tough especially against inferior competition so it was a nice change.

Whatdoes thay have to do with my pick? I think he will build on wimbledon and finish the year slam wise strong. I also haven't rated Andos form on hardcourts IMO


As for Nadal I agree completely...I'll keep riding that horse till he has a lapse. Kuznetsov isn't as good of a matchup as Seppi was but I think he will do it in three on the big stage. My only worry would be if the roof closed but not a bigg one. In no way do I believe Nadal will win the USO or djokovic but he should take care of these guys IMO.

Apologies for the retarded looking writing in bits, there is usually a notable difference when typing on my Ipad/phone and laptop :P

[Jeff_Black]

Also I really want to add another unit on Nadal 3-0 if anyone has the discipline and bankroll to do it by all means but for now I'll add:

1u on over 34 Bautista/Pouille on SB @ 1.7 like I posted in your thread

[Lightning]

How good was that line, and how good was Pouille?

Nadal smashing another line in like an absolute boss haha, and bloody good call on Tsonga

[pabonaparte]

marvelous!

[Jeff_Black]

Indeed!, that brings us to 15-6-3 on the US Open

ATP US Open 2000, Mens Singles, R3
Joao Sousa vs Grigor Dimitrov
Handicap: Joao Sousa +5.5 @ 1.862 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP US Open 2000, Mens Singles, R3
Juan Martin Del Potro vs David Ferrer
Total Score: Over 37.0 Games @ 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP US Open 2000, Mens Singles, R3
Ivo Karlovic vs Jared Donaldson
Moneyline: Ivo Karlovic @ 1.606 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP US Open 2000, Mens Singles, R3
Dan Evans vs Stan Wawrinka
Set Handicap: Stan Wawrinka -2.5 sets @ 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

One losing day after six straight winning days, shouldn't complain but I could have done better with my picks, just way off so I'll aim to fix that up right away...
1-3 on the day and 16-9 overall

[Jeff_Black]

ATP US Open 2000, Mens Singles, R4
Gael Monfils vs Marcos Baghdatis
Total Score: Over 34.5 @ 1.892 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP US Open 2000, Mens Singles, R4
Novak Djokovic vs Kyle Edmund
Set Handicap: Novak Djokovic -2.5 @ 1.649 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP US Open 2000, Mens Singles, R4
Rafael Nadal vs Lucas Pouille
Set Handicap: Rafael Nadal -2.5 @ 1.602 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Lightning]

One losing day after six straight winning days, shouldn't complain but I could have done better with my picks, just way off so I'll aim to fix that up right away...
1-3 on the day and 16-9 overall

Kind of glad I didn't post yesterday, few weird results. I would've got lured into the Ferrer trap as wel.

[Jeff_Black]

Yeah was Shocked that baggy threw up a stinker. Usually when he's down 0-2 he finds another gear and pulls a set out of his arse. Has done it in the past against the best. Was even up a break in the third.
Ah well

1-2 day brings us to 17-11-3 overall

[Chaz22]

1-2 day brings us to 17-11-3 overall

do you know what's the +/- unit count behind this Win - Lose record ?

[Lightning]

do you know what's the +/- unit count behind this Win - Lose record ?

If you assume an average of $1.9, then it's +4.3 at around 13.87% ROI, which is still excellent. I think I'm about the same profit, but with greatly reduced ROI because I generally hit more plays per day than Jeff.

[Chaz22]

If you assume an average of $1.9, then it's +4.3 at around 13.87% ROI, which is still excellent. I think I'm about the same profit, but with greatly reduced ROI because I generally hit more plays per day than Jeff.

no way 1.9....i d say 1.75 at best

[beefcake]

Man Nishi has been shaky so far..I think Dr.Ivo at +4.5 is a great bet.

[Jeff_Black]

do you know what's the +/- unit count behind this Win - Lose record ?

+4,411u

edited for the extra unit I place on Bautista/Pouilee overs @ 1.70

[Jeff_Black]

Think i'll take unders for both these games.

ATP US Open 2000, Mens Singles, QF
Novak Djokovic vs Jo Wilfried Tsonga
Total Score: Under 35.0 @ 2.02 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP US Open 2000, Mens Singles, QF
Gael Monfils vs Lucas Pouille
Total Score: Under 37.0 @ 1.884 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Wonder if the curse of players who beat Nadal at slams and go on to lose will continue

[Jeff_Black]

If you assume an average of $1.9, then it's +4.3 at around 13.87% ROI, which is still excellent. I think I'm about the same profit, but with greatly reduced ROI because I generally hit more plays per day than Jeff.

Did my own average and it comes to 1.862 which I'm happy with

[pabonaparte]

Why couldnt Tsonga take a beating like a man.

[JohnHanson]

He is a bitch

[Lightning]

How frustrating is it??? haha, he had the -6.5 covered in two sets.

[pabonaparte]

I read somewhere before that some bookie grades ML tennis bets only after two sets have been played out. Does anyone know of such a shop?

[Jeff_Black]

18-11-4 after that day.

There's no way any book would pay out a winner on an incomplete match in handicap and totals markets I think.

ATP US Open 2000,Men's Singles, SF
Novak Djokovic vs Gael Monfils
Total Score: Under 36.0 @ 1.84 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP US Open 2000, Men's Singles, SF
Stan Wawrinka vs Kei Nishikori
Total Score: Over 40.0 @ 1.847 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

Just another day in the 'get a push from a winnable position' haha

19-11-5

[Jeff_Black]

ATP US Open 2000, Mens Singles, Final
Novak Djokovic vs Stan Wawrinka
Handicap: Novak Djokovic -4.0 @ 1.961 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u

[Jeff_Black]

19-12-5 for the US Open which is similar to how I did last year

YTD: 190-156, +22.72u

New thread incoming when there is Mens Tennis on

[pabonaparte]

Quite impressive body of work. Pleasure to be able to follow!

[Lightning]

Nice work mate. Hope it keeps going.

[Jeff_Black]

Thanks man, you too with your thread