Fritz/Sela Over 19.5 games 2.00 x 1 unit
Jung ML 2.62 x 1 unit
Jung ML 2.62 x 1 unit
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I will give you props on one thing Matt you never give up. Could have loser after loser but you still fight. PropsComment -
Thanks^ the year is young. I will be + units by the end.
Fck fck I was going to put a unit of Fritz. Fckn Sela wtf is wrong with this POSComment -
T.Daniel ML 2.70 x 1 unit
Bolt ML 2.37 x 1 unit
J.P Smith 1.72 x 1.5 unitsComment -
Chen ML 2.10 x 1 unit
Setik ML 1.72 x 1 unitComment -
This thread has become a virtual love-fest. Regardless of the 700k in play legend, its almost like the last 10+ threads have been paid for by the books. Never play the man, but its ok to play the ball & the preceeding strategy has been a blueprint for negative results every week. The best example was a 10unit bet last yr on a renowned flake, Paire (as chalky fave to boot!), because he was hopefully gonna be motivated by a hot new girlfriend in the stands?!!! It irks some that you actually encourage others to tail, while grading your record only when virtually shamed into it. I reckon you have much better instincts for MLB & NFL.Comment -
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Correct. Can't fade your $2+ picks though matt, as I swore off minus$ lines (like many others here) a long time ago.Comment -
It was not my intention to accuse him of anything. It just felt strange to me that someone with a big bankroll would have so much money at risk, in one moment. For example, I'm working with much much smaller BR and I still pick my spots very carefully.
It is the slowest acctualy. They have rating 1 on ITF court speed list (1 is the slowest, 5 is the fastest). But it's not really that easy to evaluate that. You must take into consideration when is the match playing as well. IW is in the middle of the desert, therefor there are big temperature amplitutdes between day and night. And we all know that in hot weather, balls are slightley bigger and travel through their air faster, while in cold they shrink and are not so fast through the air.
And then there is one more catch. It's more of my personal observation, then a fact. Watching this tournament through the years, I noticed that in big heat, surface is slowing down the ball quite a lot. Almost like it sticks to it for a bit, when it bounces. And in the evening, when it cools down, the ball skids through the surface much more smoothly.
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Wow...deep observation
So in day time ball is faster until it bounces, at night time it is faster after the bounce.
As they return after the bounce, no effect to take into consideration or what?
What if there happens a delay of events and a game played at night instead of the day?
Although this much detailed thinking of the venue before the game, seems a bit unnecessary for me, thanks anyways
IW is slow, and it is the slowest , is all i need
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Just too add I think I have been hit with a touch of tough luck... Take a look at my losses yesterday.... Donaldson in a tiebreaker, JP smith in a tiebreaker... Fritz/Sela under 19.5 because Sela can only win 3 games vs a 900 ranked opponent... Pathetic. This shits been happening all year for me.Comment -
Solid observation Honeybadger44... I do agree with the slow speed, that's for sure. I try to select the player with the better return game capable of outlasting his/her oponents. Also to Refrence the top of the Article..... agreed got the better of me at the time. I would always increase my roll with that one large wager. I would throw hundreds of dollars on lines of +300+400 odds but I was new to everything in tennis. I didn't over study anything... I didn't compare odds anywhere... I didn't give a shit about odds I just looked at the head to head and surface, made my plays and away I went. Hit probably 65-70% of my plays for 6 weeks solid weeks. Back then i seemed to find that player that would go on a roll, and I would just ride that streak.... I should look for that again.Comment -
Don't concern yourself with semi-superstitious stuff like that. Even for just one week, I reckon if you cut out all lines under 2.00 & all parlays, plus added some 0.5unit set betting coupled with underdog 1st set lines, you'd prob see better results. All those 1.80ish lines are in my opinion a trap cause you'll tip 3/5 & still only make 0.5unit.Comment -
As you said, sometimes it's wise not to overthink these things too much. It's slow surface, so I will give here more respect to the "grinders", then on some other hard courts. Players who can keep the ball in play, can consistantly hit deep into opponents court etc. And look fo spots where I can fade players who hits it flat and with power, because they will not get the same penetration here, and that might throw them off...Wow...deep observation
So in day time ball is faster until it bounces, at night time it is faster after the bounce.
As they return after the bounce, no effect to take into consideration or what?
What if there happens a delay of events and a game played at night instead of the day?
Although this much detailed thinking of the venue before the game, seems a bit unnecessary for me, thanks anyways
IW is slow, and it is the slowest , is all i need
Yeah, I look for pretty much the same things when betting IW.
I see... We all have been on winning streak or two. It's easy to pick then. It seems like you can't lose even if you would wanted to. Mental aspect is maybe even the most important part of betting. So it is equally important to keep you head cool when you are winning, as it is to stay positive and not chase, when you are lossing. Once you can control that, you are on the right path. Good luck!
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Novikov ML 2.50 x 1.5 units
Dancevic 2-0 sets 2.37 x 1.5 unitsComment -
Falconi ML 2.50 x 1.5 units
*Hidden GemComment -
Can you elaborate on the gem if you don't mind?Comment -
i don't see too much to support the vitality of this dog...
match starts in 10minutes...ain't one that jumps out at you screaming value...
unless you're privvy to the relative timing of their menstrual cycles...
is this a court-speed thing? or a "reading between bet365's lines" thing?Comment -
Nice work there matt, even tho your compatriot didn't take it in str8. The $4+ for the 2-1 woulda been great, even for 0.5u, but the 2.37 was a decent line considering how the german has dropped off these days. GL today - the trick is making sure we get paid well for gettin them right ;-)Comment -
I dunno Fit, looking at the explorer stats & the fact falconi's playing 'at home' with considerably more experience I think anything above 2.20ish represented straight forward value.i don't see too much to support the vitality of this dog...
match starts in 10minutes...ain't one that jumps out at you screaming value...
unless you're privvy to the relative timing of their menstrual cycles...
is this a court-speed thing? or a "reading between bet365's lines" thing?Comment -
Thanks Felix, i was hoping Dancevic would have taken that in straights... He had chances to break in the first set but folded like a canadian tire Tent....
I took Falconi above because she's a solid returner and she has solid footwork... She's Dosnt have a lot of variety but vs Tomjanovic(who is horrible on slow hardcourts) she has more than enough. Tomjanovic has a return game equivalent to Raonic lol.. She makes up her points on fast hardcourtsComment -
just for the hell of it, i put in a last minute play to win a unit at 2.5...combination of the Castanza Principle and matt's blind-squirrel being overdue to find a nut...trying to avoid the premonition of later looking back at the result and
ing myself for missing out on the "gem" that i was questioning the value of
matt, thanks for the gem...and keep following the advice felix laid out a few posts above here about the sorts of plays to limit yourself too...combine with your spidey sense and may be like "old times" again...look back at those early hi-profit threads and you'll find an average of 8-or-so plays a day...lately it's been far closer to triple that and any gains from the smart well-selected stuff gets "crowded out" by all the action-junkie crap...
if you don't learn that only a small minority of your play ideas are actually worthy of becoming plays...you'll keep hemorrhaging cash...felix' post is a good intro to the art of "filtering"Comment -
Thanks Fitguy, you seem to have a lot of wisdom towards your plays and reasoning... I respect that. Thanks for the advice!Comment -
larsson should beat pavlyuKUNTova this time...Sree hit the nail on the head in his thread when he said Pavlyu plays well a very few tourneys a year and most of the time she's crap (to me, it's a motivation thing...not hungry to win...she can be a beast when she REALLY wants to be...but that's seldom...)...i will never bet on pavlyu ever ever again...cuz she can be owned by someone 100 places below her and seems to not care...u'd swear she's drunk and wants to get bak to a fukk buddy in the hotel...
but i will bet against her, especially with plus money on the hungry, sobre side of the court...go larssonComment -
Lamasine ML 1.83 x 1.5 unitsComment -
this is the post i was referring to...
there's enough value with bonus payouts (ie. >2) on what turns out far too often to be a nail-biting final-set coin-flip...even if we win on a favorite...it certainly wasn't "worth it"...look at Coric at 7-ish today...put that in a parlay just as stupid
generally (ie. if you don't...make sure you have a damn good reason to not) stick with the plus-money plays...Comment -
actually i'm hopeless in capping/finding/creating my own plays...so, apart from MMA, where i actually have developed my own "spidey sense" i rely 95% on cappers (here or twitter-based mostly) for the ideas...then i filter to reduce the type of plays to the ones i can comfortably "sweat" (for example...i fukkin' hate -0.5,regulation time plays in hockey...so convert them all into -1full-time so i don't throw a brick thru the monitor...in tennis, i hate 2-0...cuz i hate bein' on the right side, winning...but losing the bet...i'd actually rather parlay two faves than rely on one to win 2-0...just me...u gotta know what you can "stand" and eliminate the kinds of plays that are bad for you)
my long suit is in understanding betting far more as an exercise in applied probability than an exercise in sports knowledge...key is recognizing value as a comparison of prices (aka. probabilities of cashing): the one you feel is "true"...and the one the book offers...so even if you know the play is very very likely to cash (like Coric was today)...if the payout isn't high enough to compensate for the probability that today is one of the unlucky times it doesn't...then long term it's a bad play ...cuz taking the play anyhow at a poor price and winning today consolidates a bad habit that'll kill you down the road (think: changing lanes without a shoulder check...you get away with it MOST of the time...but...)
so before taking a play...the "shoulder check" is simple...compare the "long-term break even win% you'd need to hit on plays like this to make money" (1/dec.price=the implied probability) with the "actual" chance you believe the ticket to have...if the implied probability of winning is less than your perceived probability of winning, it's a go!...otherwise a no
the other essential tool is bet-sizing...and the key is to focus on the "to win" amount far more than the "to risk" amount...then long-shots become cheaper shots at making a unit...and short-shots are more expensive because they are deemed to you (by your shoulder check) to be surer shots...
i play lots of dogs...but as cheap fliers to sneak a unit into my ac...odds of 9 mean i risk only 0.125u to win a unit...i don't treat it like a chance to hit the 8x jackpot (the usual 1u to win 8u)...so investigate "fixed target" bet-sizing...far less volatility when your dogs slump (which they guaranteed will cuz they're low probability)...
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that's my wisdom in a nutshell...focus on the probability (aka. price) comparison shopping...and leave the play ideas (candidates for your shopping list) to the guys who know the sports...(if it's MMA i'm more comfortable "rolling my own"...but for tennis, basketball and football i am absolutely clue-less on my own, but i don't need to be "sharp at the sport" to make "sharp bets on the sport"...I just have to be able to convert the sharp play ideas into sensible ticket-should-win% numbers that i "agree with" so i can make good ticket buy...which in the long run makes money even tho' many many of those tickets do NOT cash...it's all probabilities=it's all prices
if you make lots of real-estate deals, you think ALL of them have value...but only some succeed, many fail...but if you've worked "probabilities of success" into your price strike-ranges...you'll make money over the haul...in fact, how well you do in the long run measures exactly how good you are at assessing and locking in value on RE-propositions which, individually may succeed or fail...change Real-Estate to Sports-Betting and you get the importance of getting good prices on each and every deal you make...cuz you never know which ones will hit and which ones will miss...but in the long run...it doesn't matter...it's your ability to recognize good deals when they come along...and to invest an appropriate-proportion of your capital into each dealComment -
R-H Hidalgo ML 1.72 x 1.5 unitsComment -
1.72?? Nooooooo! ;-) Thought this match was screaming out 1u 2-1 to the veteran hidalgo @3.75 matt. My local aussie book has it @ 4.50 tho, so 365 aren't doin many favors there.Comment -
^spot on...the keys:
(1) chalk avoidance (via type of play, eg. 2-1 vs. ml as above)...
(2) comparison shopping (via multi-book stable and a price hub such as http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/ )Comment
