If I feel certain matches deserve the chalk, it's gotta happen.... With R-H style, and grit I know he will try here... I tried the 2-0 with Dancevic when I wanted to pound the ML and it failed miserably
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Matt one thing I've thought many times with you but never voiced it, is that I don't think you respect your stake anywhere nearly as much as you need to.
It's almost as though you don't factor that into the equation.
Stick a unit on a ML at 1.42 and your return is 1.42 units.
Stick that same unit instead on 2-0 @ 2.10 and lose, and you're left with nothing.
The difference right there is 1.42 units. Sure you only win 0.42 units, but you get to keep your stake. Something MANY inexperienced punters over look.
Even if the 2-0 set bet won, you would only be 0.68 units betters.
Also in your case, if you mostly play +/- games won and unders/overs @ 1.90ish odds, it's difficult to really be successful.
Why? Because you're throwing away your stake way too often. That's reality.
You're much better of taking those 1.42 favourites when you feel very confident in them, and not losing the bet.Comment -
"You're much better of taking those 1.42 favourites when you feel very confident in them, and not losing the bet."
Was Frank a 70/30% proposition here?? The fact that it went 3 sets & he still faced 5 break pts in the 3rd suggest not to me. When you actually lose that chalky ml bet, it takes another 3 wins like it to get it back. The books are content with that, cause the soon enough its chase time.Comment -
It may not work for you felix, but if you're good enough at tennis and bet big money, it works. Keep in mind everyone's different with respect to their tennis knowledge and mental discipline (selectiveness mostly), but that definitely works for me with the bigger bets. If I'm putting a lot down, I'm looking at winning and keeping my stake.
Now I'm not saying always go for low odds. Far from it. I've proven that's not my style.
I'm just making a point that one should value their stake. Many look at the potential winnings and forget that if the bet wins, no matter what the odds, you keep your stake too.
It seems like I'm pointing out the obvious, but in my experience with chatting to others, it's something many show ignorance to.
*Edit. And I'm not sure about the Dancevic bet. He's a lower ranked player that I tend not to bet on. He can be pretty erratic after all.
Though my point was that many go for set betting instead of taking the lower odds.
However in the example I detailed above you're essentially risking 1.42 units (ML winning vs. losing) to win an extra 0.68 units if they win 2-0.
Is that worth it?
For the most part, imo, no.Comment -
I Respect both of your Views.... I agree with JC on the fact that if you are patient and hammer those Favorites of 1.42ish-1.70 you will have no problem building a bankroll...... With that being said, it's a lowe percentage of people that can actually succeed.... When I had my outstanding tennis season, this is what i did^^^^ I took favorites 1.60ish-1.80ish ... Some dogs and killed it. For whatever reason I veered from my dicipline... Over the past few days I've been considerably more dicipline with my picks... And I will continue to do so with winners.Comment -
lets go Ramirez!Comment -
Pospisil ML 1.72 x 1.5 units
Vinci ML 2.75 x 1 unitComment -
Thanks, thankfully B e t 888 pays out retirements.Comment -
Rogers ML 2.50 x 1 unitComment -
No, all my wagers were at Sport888 thus far.
L.Davis 1.72 x 1.5 units b e t 365Comment -
Roger Vasseline 1st set 2.20 x 1.25 unitsComment -
Andujar ML 2.37 x 1 unit
Estrella ML 1.72 x 1.25 units
B E T 365Comment -
62-72 -33.91
Last 10 7-3 +7.05
* 2 above plays pendingComment -
Krajinovic ML 1.72 x 1.25 unitsComment -
Bellucci ML 2.75 x 1 unitComment -
wtf, u goin' tout?
if u'r gonna update...update SLFU (since last friggin' update)...)
you can't just cherry pick how you bundle 'em up for presentation...we're u'r fellow net-heads, not customers (a little minus-sign before the units ain't gonna kill us)...so go back to your last proper update and do a full "warts & all" report...and save the "rose colored glasses" crap for the touts
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go back and look at your old NHL threads...and even early tennis threads...
you know the ones with a finite number of plays and reasonably-regular updates...(and plus-units too...hmmm, think maybe there might be a connection?
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yes, it seems like a long time ago..but there really was a time before you became a scatter-brained action-junkieComment -
Well, that was rock bottom today. Time to turn it all aroundComment -
just slow your roll matt, take a look at girlscoutcookies', and eaglesphan's successful threads...they post a few well thought-out plays once in a while with no wild swings in bet-sizes, and they update regularly (not just when they win)
same as how you used to run your NHL thread, right...no "seat of the pants" last-minute plays with obviously revenge-driven bet-sizes...
the more plays u put out, the less time you have to evaluate each...
be more selective = post fewer (but more carefully considered) plays...
good luck palComment -
Clezar ML 2.25 x 1 unitComment -
Thanks Fitguy^^^ I was distracted a lot today... Tomorrow, not so muchComment -
Samper-Montana ML 2.50 x .75 unitsComment -
Vinci ML 1.90 x 1.25 unitsComment -
Duckworth +3.5 Games 2.00 x 1 unitComment -
R. Vasseline ML 2.35 x 1 unit 888 sportComment -
Karantencheva ML 2.32 x 1 unit 888 SportComment -
Ferro ML 2.80 x 1 unitComment -
Chardy/Young Over 22.5 Games 1.82 x 1 unit
* Young looked good at times vs Busta, but I expect Chardys servevto win him a lot of points as well. Young could pull this out/should pull this out but I'm not 100% sold.
Dogopolov/Giraldo Under 21.5 Games 1.84 x 2 units
Dogo is in solid form here. He made a deep run here last year. The pace plays in his favor. He made a decent looking Dancevic(who played well) look silly at times.Comment -
Dmitrov -2.5 Games 1.80 x 1.5 units
I like Kyrgios on faster courts as Dmitrov IMO will be more patient in the ralliesComment -
Pliskova ML 2.14 x 1.25 unitsComment -
S.Johnson ML 2.06 x 2 unitsComment
