nishikori to win madrid +1525

[tipsadontlikehim]

I can't believe ya'll were dumping on Kei before this match. The dude is playing the BEST tennis of his life & the heart he showed in the third set today was exceptional IMO.. Ferrer has been average at best lately & this was gonna be a battle from the start. I wanted to post something earlier when I saw the comments, but couldn't. I was SO happy to see him win this match, esp that first set
I went with Kei +3 in two parlays today with basketball, I couldn't pull the trigger on his ML. I was just surprised to see everyone saying Ferrer would trash Kei hardcore, that's all..

Nadal vs Nish in the finals will be solid, but we know who will win.. I wonder how many games Nadal will give up, this match may be too tough to bet, arg.. BOL to everyone if they wager tomm

hey man
I think nearly everyone predicted a win from Ferrer because of what happened to Kei during the Lopez match when he took MTO and looked in big trouble with his back.
Otherwise, on a tennis point of view you were right of course, especially knowing the head to head between the two (3-3) and their lats match in Miami.

[jjgold]

this would be a great win without a hedge

although smart gamblers hedge if they like to make money long term

[Hardcoar]

Its cool Bababooey, actually the intended word was "better alternative" instead of wiser. You clearly have been right up to now which is awesome on its own.

English is my second language. Good read on Nishikori though.

Hardcoar, can you answer this. I know once we had an argument about if games are fixed or not. I observed this. In third set BET365 was clearly favoring Ferrer to win after he had just broken Nishikori and was up 2 to 1. Makes sense ok. On the other had total games played at over under 34.5. At that point the only way the game would go Under would be if one of the players won 3 or less games.

They were clearly making a lean that one of the players would not win 4 games, which seems statistically speaking a low probability given how close the games were going. Even when Nishikori broke to make it 3:3 they did not move total games from 34.5. Just found it odd. And believe anyone watching the game would have thought Over 34.5 was the right choice. We all know what happened.

I will reply, but I cannot give a "right answer": The most likely outcome is that you are incorrect (that is, you are mistaken somehow). The second most likely outcome is that the bookmaker is incorrect. The third most likely is you're right in which case I really don't know.

I can assure you though, the likelihood of the match in question being predetermined is close to zero.

Also: CindyCryBaby (last post previous page) seems sharp.

[gasto]

@cindycrybaby what surprised me is that Kei started serving first so that in itself would make me lean on over 34.5. After he won first two games no change even though Bet365 was heavily suggesting that Ferrer was going to win.

At 3 to 2 Kei still no movement. This is what made it suspicious for me. Kei had at a minimum 2 service games even if Ferrer won all his games. Remember first two sets were 76 75 so this was a very close game. It seems dangerous that the book would take the position that only 9.5 games would be played and also favor Ferrer go win. Weak correlation. The only way this could happen is if Ferrer would break Kei on his two remaining service games. Highly unlikely given how previous sets were decided.

The least likely scenario which played out was Kei actually broke Ferrer to make it 42 and then win 63 keeping total Under 34.5

Even though Kei went up 42 Bet365 kept games at 34.5 suggesting they thought it highly unlikely Ferrer had any chance of breaking Kei even though they had been highly favoring him to win match with Kei up 32 in last set

Just fishy

[gasto]

@Hardcoar, you lose all your credibility the moment you ascribe 0% for the odds that game was rigged

Never ever forget this is entertainment. No players ego is being hurt from losing these games. The only loss is to gamblers .

[Hardcoar]

Then it's reassuring I never did that. I said this particular game has a probability of being fixed that is very close to zero.

Also, are you saying the players don't care if they lose, or that they wouldn't be motivated to win this particular match? Did you see the players' performance?? Do you even know this is the SF of a masters???

Credibility lost.


OH THE IRON!!

[beefcake]

Anyone who does not see making money on futures check out my threads on dartboard futures from the last few years, It can be done, its all about timing man and studying the draw when it comes out.Previous performance at majors and having points to defend and if the player has a manageable draw and Tony at 5 dimes puts up 500-1 on a player,,,money to be made my man.

[gasto]

@hardcoar did you mean Irony. Iron happens to be a metal

What does close to zero mean. Anyways, I am humble to know that books always always know more than me. How do you know if Ferrer's boys were hammering under 34.5 and the books were reacting to that knowing something is up

You just watching the game would have no clue. And the average Joe would be hammering over 34.5 and 9 times out of 10 books win when facts and odds don't add up.

Don't know some of you guys backgrounds but it makes me laugh given that hedge funds routinely get fined by the SEC for insider trading on the stock markets. These are billion dollar businesses that go out of their way to rig the stock market in a heavily regulated industry and still ascribe close to zero probability for some tennis game being rigged.

If you don't see how silly that is you clearly have issues or just don't have a clue about how the real world functions. Greed is a big part of human desires and motivation.

[Hardcoar]

Very, very low, is what a probability of close to zero is.

I meant exactly what I typed in my previous post.

[CindyCryBaby]

9.5 games on the 3rd set with Nishikori serving first...over def looked like a good bet. Obviously, you lose that with a nishikori break in ferrer's first 3 service games or if ferrer breaks 2x. Both those events seemed less likely than the match going over 9.5 games, so I'd say good bet. Sometimes, you make a good bet and it loses. Happens.

As far as rigged, no, just no bro. You think a seminfinal of a masters event with 2 top 10 players is rigged bc of an in-game wager on the total? These are what we called paranoid delusions.

[gasto]

You don't get it. If there is a rig it has to be some sort of gentleman's agreement beforehand.

I was not suggesting that players are playing to the in game trends. Just think the in between flow is a smokescreen. I have watched the NBA and baseball and you can clearly tell some of the games are predetermined. Especially watch for instances where some lowly team faces a better team with an Ace pitcher going. Most team bad team covers or outright wins with stud pitcher getting no run support. Happens a lot to be just a coincidence

[Dmoneytx]

Very, very low, is what a probability of close to zero is.

I meant exactly what I typed in my previous post.

Hard, you a one funny mother rooster_eater!!! Hell ya you meant to type "Iron", lol...

And your description of what a prob of close to zero is very accurate sir..

I think I am on your side when you defend that these matches (esp SF in a freaking Masters 1000) are "not" rigged.. LOL!!! Cracks me up people think Ferrer vs a Nish match is actually rigged and set up??? LMAO!!! I will go out on a limb here and say the prob of that is freaking ZERO! For others reading this, that is 0. Not "close" to 0, fukking 0.

I think there is something really really BIG that most & I mean MOST, people don't understand about tennis players. For starters, guys in the top 10 don't "fix" matches. Djok, Nadal, Potro, Gasq, etc etc... You don't fix a semifinal of a 1000 ATP, or a quarterfinal major, etc...
When people say that, it makes me laugh out loud, for real

I guess I will explain something to ya'll, since I do play a lot of tennis. A lot.. I go through small injuries all the time, all the time. Sometimes I have to not play & rest, sometimes I can play thru them & sometimes, even with a slight injury, can play very well. I will explain... For example, I have had a left wrist issue for a year maybe. It is minor, maybe tend in wrist, but it is sore when I hit my first few backhands of the match......until it warms up. Usually I get it ready before match warm up, but sometimes if it is hurting a bit, I will tape it quickly on a change over and put wrist bands back on. Even though I have this injury, when I get it warmed up in a match, I can be firing as hard as I can at the ball, which I usually do, on the backhand & will feel nothing.. Even though u see me tape it or stretch it here and there, a point will come where I comp forget it & all I feel nothing honestly..
I say all this bec of Nish back issue. IF he got his back stretched out & it got warmed up throughout that match yest, it could of been a complete non issue, esp if he wasn't even feeling it during the match anymore as he was playing at their super high intense ADRENIALINE level they play out. EASY to think his back pain was gone & all he was focused on was ripping the ball and winning every point.

I just don't think a lot of ya'll understand this. And this is why those matches are not fixed. This is why Hard is 100% correct. With my experience and with my know of tennis, this is just how it is... But is is funny to hear "fix" even in a SF 1000 ATP match that is a nailbitter & a tremendous match. Hit me up later Hard, have a great day

[kenz]

So Eaglesphan

If Kei future is hedged before Ferrer game, then the loss of this future increases.

And At these odds it is very tough to make any significant money pregame

So in this bet Kei advances to the final, 90% having this fture would hedge before Ferrer game increased their losses and it is still very tough to make money from this future.

I think it is unlikely you can make money from tennis futures in the long run.

Kei must take the first set to make any significant money from this

[tipsadontlikehim]

You don't get it. If there is a rig it has to be some sort of gentleman's agreement beforehand.

I was not suggesting that players are playing to the in game trends. Just think the in between flow is a smokescreen. I have watched the NBA and baseball and you can clearly tell some of the games are predetermined. Especially watch for instances where some lowly team faces a better team with an Ace pitcher going. Most team bad team covers or outright wins with stud pitcher getting no run support. Happens a lot to be just a coincidence

how come the 3rd set could be rigged when Nishikori had match point in the 2nd set ??

[tipsadontlikehim]

Dmoney thanks for your post

[Cappinpicks]

how come the 3rd set could be rigged when Nishikori had match point in the 2nd set ??

i guess cause ferrer aced him and only faced 1... plus i guess it could have been straights

[tipsadontlikehim]

it makes me laugh
it's like saying Huta Galung fixed his match when he lost to Becker

Huta had something like 5 or 6 MP iirc

anyone playing tennis even at a crap level knows you can f*ck up a rally, hit a double fault, make a silly error

could have happened to Becker if they did fix the match lol

(not to mention that when fixed do happen, not everytime both players are involved)

[bababooey13]

hoping for kei to pull some ninja shit today and surprise everyone.. i doubt it. but i can hope. preying nadal got some weird infection from a dirty slut last night. been saying my voodoo prayers all night.

in case these prayers dont work i took nadal to win 2 - 1 then i parlayed nadal in straight sets with some ''locks'' in other sports. mainly the clippers moneyline in NBA. just to keep this thread updated with wtf im doing.

[gasto]

With all respect to the tennis player

Are these guys playing for family honor, for fun, for competitive juices or for money.

If we all agree they are primarily playing for money, then there is your answer. If the World Cup can be rigged, with all matches screened the world over, if International Cricket matches are rigged and its well acknowledged, Indian, Australian, Pakistani players, if AC Milan one of the biggest clubs in Europe were relegated for rigging games, what the hell do you think is so special about these tennis players

If anything, tennis would be the easiest to rig, because you do not even need refs to affect outome. A player can make double faults, hit it into the net whatever and bozos here will just " Oh another bad day at the office". Sports are rigged. You just have to pick your spots.

If you dont believe and do not work for the books, how about betting heavy favorites on a daily basis and see how that goes

Get the F out of here with oh there are not rigged. See the Wolf of Wall Street to get a clue how the real world works. Out there every a minute is someone trying to get your hard earned cash into his own pockets and have fun with your money. Makes me wonder how many idiots are on this forum

[bababooey13]

early break...

[Bet10Heinekens]

Good time to hedge

[bababooey13]

FINALLY after 2 breaks I can get nadal at the odds i expected before the ridiculous odds were released.
profit guaranteed now.

FINISH HIM !!!!!! Don't let the ass picker take the 2nd set!

[bababooey13]

Good time to hedge

[gasto]

Man time to hedge now. Nishikori will more than likely lose. This is just wiping out all those -420 odds for Nadal to win first set and all the parlays with Nadal first set. Hedge fast, Nadal will most likely win match

[bababooey13]

Man time to hedge now. Nishikori will more than likely lose. This is just wiping out all those -420 odds for Nadal to win first set and all the parlays with Nadal first set. Hedge fast, Nadal will most likely win match

hedge is done. also have nadal at 2 - 1. its all fun now. kei can take this. dont be so sure on nadal.

[Bet10Heinekens]

Down 5-1

Nadal still the favor to win the match


▼ MAIN BETS +1
Money Line For Whole Match
NADAL, R-172
NISHIKORI, K+141

[kenz]

Great thread and job baba

[Hardcoar]

With all respect to the tennis player

Are these guys playing for family honor, for fun, for competitive juices or for money.

If we all agree they are primarily playing for money, then there is your answer. If the World Cup can be rigged, with all matches screened the world over, if International Cricket matches are rigged and its well acknowledged, Indian, Australian, Pakistani players, if AC Milan one of the biggest clubs in Europe were relegated for rigging games, what the hell do you think is so special about these tennis players

If anything, tennis would be the easiest to rig, because you do not even need refs to affect outome. A player can make double faults, hit it into the net whatever and bozos here will just " Oh another bad day at the office". Sports are rigged. You just have to pick your spots.

If you dont believe and do not work for the books, how about betting heavy favorites on a daily basis and see how that goes

Get the F out of here with oh there are not rigged. See the Wolf of Wall Street to get a clue how the real world works. Out there every a minute is someone trying to get your hard earned cash into his own pockets and have fun with your money. Makes me wonder how many idiots are on this forum

You have to pick your spots indeed... which is why you don't fix the semis and finals of a tennis masters! Holy fuckballs Batman you are thick!

How about betting on anything without an edge on a daily basis and see how that goes? Bookmakers utilize margins, genius!

[bababooey13]

fun tournament, so close.

[jjgold]

Nadal only won because of injury

luck

[kenz]

Baba

Did you win now with retirement?

[bababooey13]

re reading this thread is making me LOL with everyone talking shit and being wrong over and over and over,

[bababooey13]

Baba

Did you win now with retirement?

dont think so, not sure how its graded on pinny. pretty sure i push all my hedge bets and lose my initial investment on nishikori obviously.

[jazzdrum78]

Kei is a royal grade pvssy!!!

[kenz]

dont think so, not sure how its graded on pinny. pretty sure i push all my hedge bets and lose my initial investment on nishikori obviously.

Shame if you lose money from this