Nadal vs Federer - In Game Thread

[shari91]

guys, i just read here Rafa practised with no tape today... it's getting better
no way he's not beating his favourite victim

That's great news! Roger just said he doesn't think the blisters will affect Rafa at all by the time of the match and I figure he'd know better than almost anyone.

Sad that with Novak and Andy out, this isn't the final for two great friends and all around good guys.

[Domestic]

Sad that with Novak and Andy out, this isn't the final for two great friends and all around good guys.

Maybe if Roger asked Stan really nicely to withdraw from the tournament early.

[bruceBRUCEbruce]

No way it gets to rafa -135 the lowest it gets is -150 reduced odds

line has dropped overnight in spots (seeing -150 now)
will it continue to do so?

[EaglesPhan36]

Practicing without tape is one thing. Playing three-five hours ... almost guarantee that blister is going to be taped at some point. If it's not to start, then the thing is going to open back up more than likely unless he tries like some of that spray on toughskin and it actually holds for hours.

[shari91]

Maybe if Roger asked Stan really nicely to withdraw from the tournament early.

HA!!

I'm curious if Roger will sit in Stan's player box for the final. I guess that might be tricky with him being close with Rafa too. Would be a lovely show of support though!

[jjgold]

Let's lose the blister argument
He would of lost by now

Chasing an injury will make you go broke

[shari91]

Let's lose the blister argument
He would of lost by now

Chasing an injury will make you go broke

Let's not try to be too vocal about that though. Hoping BlisterWatch drives the price down a bit more close to match time.

[laxbrah420]

You don't think that it's possible a blister can reduce Nadal's strength by a margin less than his comparative advantage vs, all but Fed?

[EaglesPhan36]

The blister should not be your only reason to go for or against Rafa, but to not account for it all is also a bit unrealistic unless you think Rafa has some Jesus like healing powers that have not shown in the days off prior to now.

[phillybadboy]

i will bet small 100x

[jjgold]

Nadal is not playing a 26 year old Federer men

This guy on tail end of the career

Shari your an emotional handicapper its why you were on one of the greatest bad streaks i have ever seen in tennis approx 15 months ago

[Ramster]

Never bet fed vs rafa. It's a game to watch and get inspired. At least used to be.

[Cuse0323]

[SteveKerrsJunk]

I don't think Feds beaten Nadal in a grand slam in 7 years.

[jjgold]

I don't think Feds beaten Nadal in a grand slam in 7 years.

thread over

[stepanekslips]

I play Nadal @1.57 and I put 5330 dollars on him, first time in my career I put that much on a tennis match
Hope he wins the opening set and that will be over

LOL. Respect.

[suicidekings]

Reading through here, it seems everyone agrees on Rafa being the correct side. I agree 100%. The curious thing for me is the line movement. I don't understand Fed's line being bought down as it has been. Doesn't make sense here for this matchup with two similarly popular players and Rafa undoubtedly the more dangerous of the two at this time, blister or no. When the line settles and I still feel like I'm getting a great deal on Nadal, it makes me wonder.

I'd be happy to see the market buying back on Nadal closer to the start of the match, but if it doesn't happen it will just reinforce what I've thought about this line since I first saw it released. I think the movement is not really market-generated, but rather an attempt from the books to add some ambiguity to a matchup where there's an obviously correct side (Rafa), and to help split action so they don't get killed. It's not uncommon in other major sports to see lines pushed around but never really reach equilibrium (buyback) and see the side that got the majority of the "action" get destroyed.

I'm currently on Rafa ML (-150) x2 and spread -2 games (-117) x2, but if the line stays static or moves further in Fed's direction, I will likely add more (2-4u) on Rafa. I think this is a situation where the books are ready to take their loss tonight and move on to the final, hoping to see heavy Nadal support and a Wawrinka win.

I will be on Wawrinka in the final for 5-10u on what I hope will be a severely inflated line after a dominant performance by Nadal against smoke & mirrors Federer v2014.

[jjgold]

Wawrinka is a tough son of a bitch to beat now

he has no weaknesses

[stepanekslips]

lol! JJ you are certainly SBRs finest.

Wawrinka is a tough son of a bitch to beat now

he has no weaknesses

[Cessation]

The TAB have Nadal at 1.70, couldn't help myself. There must be a lot of sentimental money down here for Roger.

It's raining in Melbourne at the moment, forecast is for it to clear up in the afternoon, so roof shut/open has to come into calculations but suspecting it will be open.

[broadway6]

Shari, are we putting a dime on nadal or not?

[homie1975]

Rafa has played and won with blisters all over his feet before let alone one on the palm of his hand.

Rafa is a warrior who mentally and physically owns Roger.

If this was 2010 maybe Fed can win.

Fed is 32.5 years old.

Fed is going to lose.

[shari91]

Shari, are we putting a dime on nadal or not?

haha not for me. I'm on him to win $200 and if he gets behind in the match and I get a better price live I'll put a bit more on. No way am I pissing back all my winnings right at the end of the tourney. Been down that road a few too many times before.

[broadway6]

haha not for me. I'm on him to win $200 and if he gets behind in the match and I get a better price live I'll put a bit more on. No way am I pissing back all my winnings right at the end of the tourney. Been down that road a few too many times before.

best of luck

[shari91]

Sportingbet's special today is "Rafa Reign Continues: Rafa to win in 4 or 5 sets +160"

Instead of debating about the o/u or eating the chalk on +3.5 sets, I've put a bet on this as I'm fairly certain Fed will at least win a set off him. Max bet is only $50 though.

[lucasdawg]

all i see is nadal to win 3-0 @ 4.75

[shari91]

all i see is nadal to win 3-0 @ 4.75

That's what you're betting on?

[lucasdawg]

nah as in for the specials? megabet - nadal to win 3-0 @ 4.75.

dw i made a mistake of misreading yours is sportingbet haha im sportsbet.

[shari91]

nah as in for the specials? megabet - nadal to win 3-0 @ 4.75.

dw i made a mistake of misreading yours is sportingbet haha im sportsbet.

haha I was worried there for a sec that they were dealing different specials.

[brodie]

quote from raffy about his hand

"With the forehand, it's not a big issue. With the serve, a little bit. I feel that with the tape I can lose the racquet when I'm serving. That's my feeling - the racquet can go. That's a terrible feeling for a serve, because then when you have this feeling you are not able to accelerate at the right moment. You lose a little bit the coordination. That's a big deal."

[suicidekings]

Sportingbet's special today is "Rafa Reign Continues: Rafa to win in 4 or 5 sets +160"

Instead of debating about the o/u or eating the chalk on +3.5 sets, I've put a bet on this as I'm fairly certain Fed will at least win a set off him. Max bet is only $50 though.

Pinny offers Rafa 3-1 win (+293) and Rafa win (+505) with a $3000 limit. Splitting your stake at 39% on 3-1 and 61% on 3-2 pays out at +137. Not quite as good a price but the limit makes up for it, if you want to go that route.

[ardacet8]

Nadal aces under 5,5 looks very solid for me. Nadal not a player who bangs aces, Federer is a huge experience and that hand of Nadal's, pfff.. I am sorry for Nadal. Under 5,5 aces is the far best I could find for a good price. (1,65 decimal around -153 American). I will go with that.

[brodie]

^ how do you feel about Federer under 10.5 aces?

[flyingillini]

A dime on Nadal

[ardacet8]

^ how do you feel about Federer under 10.5 aces?

Federer has improved his serve a lot, which was also good. But now he uses it as one of his main arsenals. If the game goes long, he will certainly pass 10,5 mark. Also beating nadal is about getting good serves, aces or not but "good". And also if you are talking about 5Dimes lines they are so bad to play under at aces. At european bookies, we got 5,5 for nadal and 11,5 for federer. And federer under 11,5 pays 1,85 odds or so.