Nadal vs Federer - In Game Thread

[jjgold]

Novak Djokovic	7-4	2-3	-131	-125	-135	-116
Rafael Nadal	7-4	11-4	+319	+350	+275	+375
Andy Murray	3-1	8-1	+1031	+1300	+805	+1477
Juan Martin Del Potro	15-1	10-1	+1280	+1275	+1215	+1275
Roger Federer	15-1	15-1	+2094	+2750	+1615	+2674
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga	40-1	40-1	+5493	+5800	+3250	FLD
Stanislas Wawrinka	40-1	30-1	+5493	+5000	+4050	+4373
Tomas Berdych	50-1	50-1	+5000	+6300	+4050	+4392
David Ferrer	50-1	50-1	+8234	+9000	+6050	+8976
Milos Raonic	80-1	80-1	+13169	+27500	+8050	FLD
Jerzy Janowicz	80-1	100-1	+19199	+27500	+8050	FLD
Grigor Dimitrov	80-1	150-1	+21943	+47500	+10550	FLD
Bernard Tomic	80-1	150-1	+21943	+35000	+8550	FLD
John Isner	100-1	150-1	+27426	+38500	+10550	FLD
Ricahrd Gasquet	100-1	150-1	+19747	+60000	+8050	FLD
Ernests Gulbis	100-1	150-1	+32907	+50000	+10550	FLD
Tommy Haas	100-1	200-1	+32907	+100000	+9050	FLD
Janko Tipsarevic	150-1	*	+67999	*	*	FLD
Fernando Verdasco	150-1	300-1	+48260	+60000	+12550	FLD
Gael Monfils	200-1	150-1	+9879	+47500	+8550	FLD
Lleyton Hewitt	200-1	100-1	+15710	+22500	+12550	FLD
Mikhail Youzhny	200-1	300-1	+60324	+100000	+10550	FLD
Nicolas Almagro	200-1	*	*	*	+12550	FLD
Philipp Kohlschreiber	200-1	300-1	*	+100000	+10550	FLD
Kei Nishikori	200-1	200-1	+43873	+57500	+12550	FLD
Kevin Anderson	200-1	500-1	+67999	+100000	+10550	FLD
Jeremy Chardy	200-1	500-1	+67999	+100000	+12550	FLD
Alexandr Dolgopolov	250-1	300-1	*	+100000	+15000	FLD
Gilles Simon	250-1	500-1	+76772	+100000	*	FLD
Field	*	*	*	*	*	+581

ODDS TO WIN AUSTRALIAN OPEN - WTAMELBOURNE PARK - MELBOURNE VICTORIA AUSTRALIAJANUARY 13 - 26 2014
	LVH OPENER	LVH	PINNACLE	5DIMES	THE GREEK	CRIS
Team	09/11/13	01/11	01/12	01/12	01/12	01/12
Serena Williams	6-5	1-2	-151	-148	-155	-145
Victoria Azarenka	3-1	9-2	+527	+600	+450	+525
Maria Sharapova	7-1	10-1	+1402	+1550	+1015	+1615
Na Li	15-1	12-1	+1505	+1650	+1015	+1015
Petra Kvitova	20-1	20-1	+2061	+2800	+2050	+2250
Agnieszka Radwanska	20-1	30-1	+5148	+5500	+4050	+4050
Sloane Stephens	25-1	40-1	+5663	+9000	+4050	+5250
Samantha Stosur	30-1	50-1	+5663	+9000	+6050	+5250
Angelique Kerber	30-1	30-1	+5148	+8000	+3250	+4050
Simona Halep	50-1	40-1	+5663	+8000	+4050	+10250
Sabine Lisicki	50-1	80-1	+8237	+11500	+6550	+10250
Mona Barthel	50-1	250-1	+14411	+100000	+10550	FLD
Caroline Wozniacki	50-1	80-1	+10295	+13500	+8050	+10250
Ana Ivanovic	60-1	100-1	+12353	+21000	+8050	+10250
Sara Errani	80-1	150-1	+25732	+60000	+12550	FLD
Venus Williams	100-1	150-1	+15441	+60000	*	FLD
Andrea Petkovic	100-1	150-1	+20586	+55000	*	FLD
Ana Pavlyuchenkova	100-1	200-1	+15441	+72500	+10550	FLD
Ekaternia Makarova	100-1	200-1	+18528	+30000	+10550	FLD
Roberta Vinci	100-1	250-1	*	+100000	+10550	FLD
Laura Robson	100-1	250-1	+15441	+75000	*	FLD
Madison Keys	100-1	150-1	*	+28000	*	FLD
Kirsten Flipkens	100-1	250-1	*	+100000	+10550	FLD
Flavia Pennetta	125-1	250-1	+30878	+100000	+15000	FLD
Julia Goerges	125-1	300-1	*	+100000	*	FLD
Svetlana Kuznetsova	125-1	150-1	+18528	+19500	+15000	FLD
Maria Kirilenko	150-1	*	*	*	+12550	FLD
Jelena Jankovic	150-1	80-1	+7207	+9000	+8550	FLD
Alize Cornet	150-1	300-1	*	+90000	+15000	FLD
Jamie Hampton	200-1	*	*	*	*	FLD
Heather Watson	200-1	500-1	*	+100000	*	FLD
Alison Riske	200-1	500-1	*	+100000	*	FLD
Field	*	*	*	*	*	+625

[EaglesPhan36]

I'm confident in that his blisters were worse before the Andy/Fed match than they will be during the Fed match and I had decided at the time that I was taking him against either of these guys. The blisters are healing and he said he doesn't feel the pain while he's playing as long as he's taped. He's even still practicing 100% which I hadn't expected him to be. Yeah his touch is going to be off with that tape on his hands but again, this isn't a massive bet for me and I feel that even a slightly off Rafa will be enough to beat Fed, especially the one I've seen tonight. If Murray had been fully fit coming into this match I'd fully expect to have cashed a winner on him but I think any tennis diehard knows this was going to be too big of an ask, too quickly and so I took Fed. But now he's not going to be facing a guy who couldn't rotate, couldn't arch his back, stayed away from the kick serve, etc. Nadal's hand might reduce him from 100 to 95 but the rest of his body is fine. Again I'm not saying anyone should follow me... that's why I asked for thoughts instead of LOCK OF THE YEAR, FOLLOW ME OR DIEEEEEEEEEEEE, SURE MONEYMAKERRRRRRRR, YOU'VE GOT THE STUPIDZ IF YOU BET FEDDDDDDD.

Nah I understand all of that. I think the price is fairly accurate given the variables at-play here. If Nadal was 100%, obviously the price would be much steeper. I have to comb over more, but will probably give the standard Over 3.5 sets a nod as my play in this one.

[jjgold]

lvh opener

lvh

pinnacle

5dimes

the greek

cris

[jjgold]

ODDS TO WIN AUSTRALIAN OPEN - ATP MELBOURNE PARK - MELBOURNE VICTORIA AUSTRALIA JANUARY 13 - 26 2014
	LVH OPENER	LVH	PINNACLE	5DIMES	THE GREEK	CRIS
Team	09/11/13	01/11	01/12	01/12	01/12	01/12
Novak Djokovic	7-4	2-3	-131	-125	-135	-116
Rafael Nadal	7-4	11-4	+319	+350	+275	+375
Andy Murray	3-1	8-1	+1031	+1300	+805	+1477
Juan Martin Del Potro	15-1	10-1	+1280	+1275	+1215	+1275
Roger Federer	15-1	15-1	+2094	+2750	+1615	+2674
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga	40-1	40-1	+5493	+5800	+3250	FLD
Stanislas Wawrinka	40-1	30-1	+5493	+5000	+4050	+4373
Tomas Berdych	50-1	50-1	+5000	+6300	+4050	+4392
David Ferrer	50-1	50-1	+8234	+9000	+6050	+8976
Milos Raonic	80-1	80-1	+13169	+27500	+8050	FLD
Jerzy Janowicz	80-1	100-1	+19199	+27500	+8050	FLD
Grigor Dimitrov	80-1	150-1	+21943	+47500	+10550	FLD
Bernard Tomic	80-1	150-1	+21943	+35000	+8550	FLD
John Isner	100-1	150-1	+27426	+38500	+10550	FLD
Ricahrd Gasquet	100-1	150-1	+19747	+60000	+8050	FLD
Ernests Gulbis	100-1	150-1	+32907	+50000	+10550	FLD
Tommy Haas	100-1	200-1	+32907	+100000	+9050	FLD
Janko Tipsarevic	150-1	*	+67999	*	*	FLD
Fernando Verdasco	150-1	300-1	+48260	+60000	+12550	FLD
Gael Monfils	200-1	150-1	+9879	+47500	+8550	FLD
Lleyton Hewitt	200-1	100-1	+15710	+22500	+12550	FLD
Mikhail Youzhny	200-1	300-1	+60324	+100000	+10550	FLD
Nicolas Almagro	200-1	*	*	*	+12550	FLD
Philipp Kohlschreiber	200-1	300-1	*	+100000	+10550	FLD
Kei Nishikori	200-1	200-1	+43873	+57500	+12550	FLD
Kevin Anderson	200-1	500-1	+67999	+100000	+10550	FLD
Jeremy Chardy	200-1	500-1	+67999	+100000	+12550	FLD
Alexandr Dolgopolov	250-1	300-1	*	+100000	+15000	FLD
Gilles Simon	250-1	500-1	+76772	+100000	*	FLD
Field	*	*	*	*	*	+581

[shari91]

Will definitely be a great match

Good luck Shari!

I hope it is! I want to win money obviously but I definitely won't be sad if Fed gets to the final either. This time of the year you guys have to pull crazy hours to watch so I really hope it's worth it!

Rafael Nadal

7-4

11-4

+319

+350

+275

+375

See that just breaks my heart. EP you're back on duty again. Remind me to even put $50 on this stuff. I would have a bloody good hedge now! Total glutton for punishment

[shari91]

Nah I understand all of that. I think the price is fairly accurate given the variables at-play here. If Nadal was 100%, obviously the price would be much steeper. I have to comb over more, but will probably give the standard Over 3.5 sets a nod as my play in this one.

Yeah I actually think if someone is comfortable with that chalk it's the best bet of all. You know I love those over/under 3.5 set bets and was diehard with them for how long but man I hate laying prices like that. I haven't even seen the odds yet but I can only imagine how crappy they'll be. On another note, I'm so proud of Murray this tournament. He's grown up so much with Lendl and I'm almost at the point of forgiving him for the money I wasted back in his bratty days. I know a lot of people can't stand him but I absolutely cannot wait until he's back to 100%. This tourney, especially with Novak now gone, would've looked a lot different if he were fit.

[tipsadontlikehim]

Nadal will win the opening set, and it's gonna be Game over for Federer

[EaglesPhan36]

Over 3.5 Sets is -210 or 1.5 for you queer decimalians.

[tipsadontlikehim]

Over 3.5 Sets is -210 or 1.5 for you queer decimalians.

That's a solid bet.

[Seto]

Over 3.5 Sets is -210 or 1.5 for you queer decimalians.

not to be annoying, but -200 would be 1.5.. -210 is 1.476

[t-wizzle]

We all need a lot of things twizzler. Doesn't mean we're going to get it! I'm still expecting to hear in say 2 weeks time that Tsonga has recently started a new anti depressant or something similar and of course Murray isn't 100%. I'm convinced that a normal Murray would've beaten Fed tonight. I don't doubt Fed's motivation but he's also going to face a guy who missed this tourney last year - his favourite other than the French - due to injury. As much as Fed's motivated now that Djoko and Murray are gone so is Nadal because those are the only two who consistently have a chance of beating him. Whatever the match result is we'll at least know for sure that both guys want this win desperately. I just don't buy that Fed can do it. I'm not trying to change anyone's mind about their own bets however... I just always find that the Tennis Forum gets a bit hectic during Slams with people not even knowing how many sets are played, etc. I'm just trying to steer people to discuss who they're taking and why without all of that lock crap and G.O.A.T nonsense thrown in. GL with whatever you bet on this one!

I struggled for a few minutes to remember who you're referring to. But no I haven't come across him in maybe a year or so now? Hope he's doing well.

Hi Shari welcome back.

I'm not saying I like Federer because he needs it more. Was just referencing the fact that Nadal has had his number for a long time now.

[shari91]

Hi Shari welcome back.

I'm not saying I like Federer because he needs it more. Was just referencing the fact that Nadal has had his number for a long time now.

Yeah Nadal has had his number and continues to do so in my warped opinion. But honestly unless it's on the same surface under the same conditions within a 12 month period (ie remove Nadal's hand) I honestly never look into the H2H. There's a reason why guys who are top 20 in the world are nearly dying from jizz overload combustion...then again I may be coming back here and congratulating Fed backers. I honestly, deep down in my bones, don't see it though. I see Fed being competitive for a set or two and maybe even winning them but I don't see him winning this match. If anyone knows anything about me I'm a massive dog lover but I just can't do it here. GL to those who do (but not too much luck).

[matt1216]

One thing is for sure, Federer is playing far more better tennis then last year. Consider how dominant was he over Tsonga and even Murray who barely won one tiebreaker.

This is not Rolland Garros where Federer's form or quality of tennis was irrelevant when he faced Nadal.

These are hard courts, where Nadal's defense won't overplay Federer's offense. Of course it's gonna be tough for both of them, but Nadal will have to battle a stronger and more experienced competitor than Nishikori or Dimitrov.

Yes, Nadal is sort of a nemesis for Fed but think he has already coped with this role, so not a big factor here.

And yes, that blister....it won't help, it wont' help at all.

Im saying this is going to be all Swiss finale.

He is definately not playing better than"AT THIS POINT" last year. Federer beat Tsonga who looked like he had a plane to catch.... Fed beat a horrendous version of Murray. If that was old Murray, he woulda destroyed FED. Can't wait for everyone to be on FED again. Trust me, I like Fed a lot! But unless nadals SEVERLEY injured, He should cruise in 4 sets.

[matt1216]

put it in this perspective, Nadal woulda beat Murray 3-0 sets last night with a challenger like effort from andy

[lucullus]

yo i dont trust that blister on nadals hand the guy is a champ for beating nishi and dimi with it

[lucullus]

ey matt thats true i wasnt impressed with muraay at all with his match vs feddy

[thetrinity]

dumb question when does sbr put odds up for this

[losschaser]

Federer is just awful against Nadal. Every tournament its the same story. Federer usually plays very well the previous few rounds then meets Nadal and gets annihilated.

Don't get me wrong, Federer is my favorite player but the odds on him should be at least 3.00, maybe even closer to 4.00

[EaglesPhan36]

dumb question when does sbr put odds up for this

Half past never. They don't give a fukk about tennis.

[jjgold]

Why Fed cannot beat Nadal

Its real simple

Fed a known choker vs top players
Fed known to be scared of Nadal

Murray is easy to play..quiet type

That equates to pressing when he plays these type matches

[matt1216]

Why Fed cannot beat Nadal

Its real simple

Fed a known choker vs top players
Fed known to be scared of Nadal

Murray is easy to play..quiet type

That equates to pressing when he plays these type matches

Thanks JJ, now I'm forced to play the Over

[MCherry281]

I'm picking Federer to win the whole thing. All those stats about Nadal beating Federer the last few years mean nothing. This is not that Federer and Nadal seems to be vulnerable. I think the blisters are limiting him a lot. Fed is on a mission to reclaim a slam and he won't be stopped!

[jjgold]

If Fed wins the semifinals then of course he will win the finals

Nadal looks pretty sharp

He played some good players in the previous rounds

[w@lt]

jj.. no offense.. I don't think you know shit about tennis.

[ACoochy]

Have a future on fed at +2100 so going to wait til the conclusion of tonight's game and hedge the shite out of this for a nice hefty profit...

[imadegen]

Federer looked outstanding today.

[homie1975]

I got rafa at -155 on 5dimes. Fed overvalued after the murray win. Murray was out from oct to dec after the back surgery so he is not ready yet. Rafa still a very bad matchup for fed as he's been for many years

[Winner_13]

I dont do well in Tennis, actually, horrible.
Like 2-8, in tourney, mostly live bets.

On fed +150, on fed +3.5

[shari91]

Yeah that 5 set bet may be the go for me! I'm not yet entirely convinced it'll even go past three but that could just be my mind playing with me now. No way Fed wins in 3 so I could use it as a bit of protection against my larger Nadal bet. Good thinking!

I'm also on Cibulkova so I'll wait to see how that one goes before putting it in. Good luck to you too!

Well, Cibulkova came through easily so now I'm tossing up the over 3.5 sets or Seto's suggestion of taking a 5 setter at +220 to +250. I saw a poll on one of the Aussie news sites today that said 65% of people think Fed will win so hopefully it's a public burial tomorrow night.

[Koldazzice]

I'm with you shari couldn't lay that type of wood on the opening line but patience seems to have paid off.

My concern for nadal is he really didn't look that sharp vs dimitrov and should of lost the 3rd set to him putting him down 2-1, but dimi shanked a couple and missed a easy shot on set point. Nadal's serve also didn't look great (maybe cause of that blister?)

nadal has won the last 4 vs feds (3 being on hardcourt surface) which can't be overlooked.

Nadal in 4 or 5 tough sets but I don't think it will be easy. I will play nadal but hoping around the -135 range (its -150 reduced juice at 5 dimes now)

GL with what you guys decide

cheers

[homie1975]

No way it gets to rafa -135 the lowest it gets is -150 reduced odds

[tipsadontlikehim]

I play Nadal @1.57 and I put 5330 dollars on him, first time in my career I put that much on a tennis match
Hope he wins the opening set and that will be over

[Koldazzice]

No way it gets to rafa -135 the lowest it gets is -150 reduced odds

yeah thinking about starting a position 150/100 just to make sure I get that locked in, then bury it if it drops.

[tipsadontlikehim]

guys, i just read here Rafa practised with no tape today... it's getting better
no way he's not beating his favourite victim

[sbavi]

guys, i just read here Rafa practised with no tape today... it's getting better
no way he's not beating his favourite victim

That's not true.He played with a smaller circular bandage instead of the plaster he was having previously.Check out the pics here http://rafaelnadalfans.com/2014/01/2...an-open-fedal/