dRavidC's Tennis 2014

[dRavidC]

Hey guys! Happy new Year!

Glad to report I'll be back for the tennis this year!

A link to my 2013 thread - http://forum.sbrforum.com/tennis-bet...is-2013-a.html

miserable tennis season last year let's hope to rectify that this year.

[dRavidC]

1/1/14

ATP Brisbane - 2nd Rd

1* Matosevic vs Querrey OVER 23.5

h2h record tied at 1-1. Both matches went to three sets. Both players should be very motivated in this one. Expecting two very tight sets/three sets here.

[Tmuston Beltics]

Good luck with your future bets. You did very well in 2012. Hope you do well during this season as well. Let's go!

[MiddleMan]

I am on the same. It means either a three set match or both the first two sets getting to 5-5 for this to be a winner. A fair chance of happening due to an even match up.

[MiddleMan]

7-5 and 4-4. We need Marinko to win one of the next two games for this bet to win.

Marinko was just down 0-40 on his serve and then reeled off five straight points to hold. There have been some incredible winners in this match, contrasted by some absolute shanks.

[MiddleMan]

Bang!

Once again, the Aussie found himself 0-30 down on his serve and reeled off the next four points. Winner winner.

Question, if there is a retirement, will pinnacle still pay out on the overs, considering it's now impossible for unders?

[dRavidC]

Bang!

Once again, the Aussie found himself 0-30 down on his serve and reeled off the next four points. Winner winner.

Question, if there is a retirement, will pinnacle still pay out on the overs, considering it's now impossible for unders?

don't think so.

[dRavidC]

1/1/14

ATP Brisbane - 2nd Rd

1* Matosevic vs Querrey OVER 23.5 WINNER

h2h record tied at 1-1. Both matches went to three sets. Both players should be very motivated in this one. Expecting two very tight sets/three sets here.

wow wouldn't call it an easy winner but we got there in the end. matsosevic was 0-40 serving trailing 4-3 in the 2nd set and somehow managed to strike some big points together to win that game and get it to 5-5 which at that point sealed the win for us. good start for the year.

Tennis Record 2014: 1 - 0 - 0 | +0.95 units

[Hardcoar]

Congrat's and best wishes!

[dRavidC]

3/1/14

ATP Brisbane - Quarter Finals

1* Hewitt vs Copil UNDER 22

1* Groth vs Chardy OVER 23

[dRavidC]

Well done Hewitt, he is looking really good so far in 2014. And similar to 2013, is having a strong start on his home turf. It'd be interesting to see what the odds are for him against Nishi in the semi.

[dRavidC]

3/1/14

ATP Brisbane - Quarter Finals

1* Hewitt vs Copil UNDER 22 WINNER

1* Groth vs Chardy OVER 23 LOSER

groth/chardy short by a game

Tennis Record 2014: 2 - 1 - 0 | +0.90 units

[dRavidC]

3/1/14

ATP Brisbane - Quarter Finals

2* Federer vs Matosevic Federer M/L + UNDER 20.5

Yes Matosevic has looked good but against Federer who has now had a match under his belt think it'll be a straight setter. Yes Fed has not been the same player he was but he looks like someone with real ambitions this season and looked deadly against Nieminen. Also for extra value going for the Federer M/L and UNDER since I see no where that Matosevic beats Fed at all let alone in easy straight sets. Should be interesting early but when it's all said and done, Fed in comfortable straights.

[dRavidC]

3/1/14

ATP Brisbane - Quarter Finals

2* Federer vs Matosevic Federer M/L + UNDER 20.5 WINNER

Yes Matosevic has looked good but against Federer who has now had a match under his belt think it'll be a straight setter. Yes Fed has not been the same player he was but he looks like someone with real ambitions this season and looked deadly against Nieminen. Also for extra value going for the Federer M/L and UNDER since I see no where that Matosevic beats Fed at all let alone in easy straight sets. Should be interesting early but when it's all said and done, Fed in comfortable straights.

6-1 6-1 one of easier winners in quite some time. we continue our solid start to the year.

Tennis Record 2014: 3 - 1 - 0 | +2.80 units

[Noleafclover]

Wait what? They let you parlay favorite with under? Isn't that hardcore correlated, especially in situations where the favorite is a top player? I've seen lines that were like -6 (spread) 18 games (total) both cases books are saying the t10 guy wins 6-3 6-3.

Edit: To clarify, not saying 100% of the time Fed wins it goes under, but you can be damn sure when it goes under, Fed wins more than 50% of the time (correlation). Or take the above fictitious example, lets say Djokovic -6 vs #100 who's playing alright but not super amazingly, guarantee if that goes under Djokovic wins more than 2/3 of the time. I'd venture more like 95+% of the time if you looked back at those situations. Can't bring to mind when #100 blew out Djokovic and the under hit. Granted the moneyline there would be large, but they'd still be offering free + odds on the under.

[dRavidC]

Wait what? They let you parlay favorite with under? Isn't that hardcore correlated, especially in situations where the favorite is a top player? I've seen lines that were like -6 (spread) 18 games (total) both cases books are saying the t10 guy wins 6-3 6-3.

Edit: To clarify, not saying 100% of the time Fed wins it goes under, but you can be damn sure when it goes under, Fed wins more than 50% of the time (correlation). Or take the above fictitious example, lets say Djokovic -6 vs #100 who's playing alright but not super amazingly, guarantee if that goes under Djokovic wins more than 2/3 of the time. I'd venture more like 95+% of the time if you looked back at those situations. Can't bring to mind when #100 blew out Djokovic and the under hit. Granted the moneyline there would be large, but they'd still be offering free + odds on the under.

yeah they offered winner and total double in my books so took advantage of it.

[Noleafclover]

What book?

[dRavidC]

What book?

sportingbet

[dRavidC]

4/1/14

ATP Brisbane - Semi Finals

2* Federer vs Chardy UNDER 21.5

[dRavidC]

4/1/14

ATP Brisbane - Semi Finals

2* Federer vs Chardy UNDER 21.5 LOSER

a loss but well played chardy! certainly did not think he would put it together in one whole set.

Tennis Record 2014: 3 - 2 - 0 | +0.80 units

[Hardcoar]

I agree that result was surprising, though the odds were absolute shit on anything Federror.

[dRavidC]

5/1/13

ATP Brisbane - Final

3* Hewitt vs Federer OVER 21.5

We should be in for an absolute cracker of a match tonight. Both players in fine form. Both know wag others game inside out and I'm expect two tight sets and wouldn't even be surprised with a 3 setter. I lean towards a federer win but at the same time also think that if there's a time Hewitt beats federer it would be here in Brisbane. Bottom line: I don't see a blowout by either player. There's a chance we get screwed over by a 6-4 6-4 scoreline but I'm confident with the over hence the 3 unit play.

[dRavidC]

6/1/14

ATP Sydney - 1st round

Ebden vs Benneateau over 22

[dRavidC]

6/1/14

ATP Sydney - 1st round

Ebden vs Benneateau over 22

1* play apologies for late post, posting from phone

[dRavidC]

Apologies for the Silly play - was gonna play benneateau but the odds being at close to pickup put me off

[dRavidC]

9/1/14

WTA Sydney - Semi Finals

1* Keys M/L vs Kerber

Kooyong Classic - Exhibition

1* Djokovic vs Monaco UNDER 19.5

[dRavidC]

5/1/13

ATP Brisbane - Final

3* Hewitt vs Federer OVER 21.5 WINNER

We should be in for an absolute cracker of a match tonight. Both players in fine form. Both know wag others game inside out and I'm expect two tight sets and wouldn't even be surprised with a 3 setter. I lean towards a federer win but at the same time also think that if there's a time Hewitt beats federer it would be here in Brisbane. Bottom line: I don't see a blowout by either player. There's a chance we get screwed over by a 6-4 6-4 scoreline but I'm confident with the over hence the 3 unit play.

6/1/14

ATP Sydney - 1st round

Ebden vs Benneateau over 22

LOSER

9/1/14

WTA Sydney - Semi Finals

1* Keys M/L vs Kerber LOSER

Kooyong Classic - Exhibition

1* Djokovic vs Monaco UNDER 19.5 WINNER

UPDATED RECORDS

Tennis Record 2014: 5 - 4 - 0 | +1.80 units

[dRavidC]

One more play to end the day.

9/1/14

ATP Sydney - Quarter Finals

1* Tomic vs Dolgopolov UNDER 22.5

h2h & form favours dolgo, but tomic has home support and motivation of defending points. If Dolgo plays the way he did against Janowicz he rips Tomic in straights. Though, we all know there's two sides to Dolgo the side that plays well and the side that would lose to anybody on tour. Tomic has looked decent so far this tournament but I personally think it all comes down to how Dolgo is. H2h have suggested close and tight matches but I think we see a 2 set match here regardless of the winner.

[dRavidC]

One more play to end the day.

9/1/14

ATP Sydney - Quarter Finals

1* Tomic vs Dolgopolov UNDER 22.5 WINNER

h2h & form favours dolgo, but tomic has home support and motivation of defending points. If Dolgo plays the way he did against Janowicz he rips Tomic in straights. Though, we all know there's two sides to Dolgo the side that plays well and the side that would lose to anybody on tour. Tomic has looked decent so far this tournament but I personally think it all comes down to how Dolgo is. H2h have suggested close and tight matches but I think we see a 2 set match here regardless of the winner.

Tomic played good without being spectacular, Dolgopolov was god awful and it was thanks to that which cashed us this ticket.


Tennis Record 2014: 6 - 4 - 0 | +2.75 units

[Hardcoar]

Were watching huh?

[dRavidC]

Were watching huh?

yeah i was. maybe i'm not giving enough credit to tomic but i felt like i was watching dolgo self-destruct going for way too much and missing by a lot with these shots too.

[Hardcoar]

Classic DogPooLove, it sounds like... still you don't wanna miss his matches because when he's on... he's on!

[dRavidC]

Classic DogPooLove, it sounds like... still you don't wanna miss his matches because when he's on... he's on!

agreed. well he did play some really good points but could never string them consistently enough. definitely a player i will always look to play the under with - he'll either destroy his opposition or get destroyed.

[dRavidC]

not gonna be playing this myself, but if anyone's looking for action in the auckland final the only play I would look at would be the OVER 23.5, especially since Isner is the sort of player who beats his opponents in tight sets rather than blowouts. But Lu can play too, as we saw against Ferrer! But here's one massive factor that's put me off altogether:
- Both players are set to play qualifiers in the 1st round of the Aussie Open and with that match in just 2-3 days I don't know if we see max effort from the player that loses the 1st set. As much as this match screams the over, i just get the feeling that we could also see a close tight set and then a blowout second set. Having said that, if both players give it their all then this definitely goes OVER in my opinion.

Just my two cents worth, good luck with whatever you go with.

[dRavidC]

13/01/14

Australian Open - Day 1

2* Djokovic vs Lacko OVER 25.5

2* Baghdatis vs Istomin OVER 40