EP36's Fuzzy Tennis Balls

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  • Bumdeal
    SBR MVP
    • 12-17-13
    • 3954

    #981
    Originally posted by matt1216
    I believe dolgo played ferrer tough at the French open last year as well. He does play to the level of his opponent alot. I think your right with his sickness. I just like to blame it on other things. Do bad we didn't know what kind of cycles his disease runs in.
    We need to get in touch with his pharmacist ASAP.
    Comment
    • EaglesPhan36
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 12-06-06
      • 71662

      #982
      It was Wimbledon where he played him tough-ish. Five sets, but Ferrer killed him the last two sets.
      Comment
      • Hardcoar
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 02-17-13
        • 15606

        #983
        Do you mean Wimbledon, by chance?
        Comment
        • matt1216
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 10-27-11
          • 14683

          #984
          woah!! Dolgo's dad was at these matches?? No fckin wonder
          Comment
          • matt1216
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 10-27-11
            • 14683

            #985
            Ahh yes wimbeldon, my bad
            Comment
            • matt1216
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 10-27-11
              • 14683

              #986
              Here's a question. I didn't watch the entire Dolgo/ferrer match, could his game challenge Nadals just a bit? I know it seems silly to ask but dolgo pretty easily beat ferrer. Or was Ferrer just off today?
              Comment
              • riffraff24
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 04-20-11
                • 7234

                #987
                Holy moly, cilic -195 vs Isner? I know Isner has looked really bad but isnt that a bit overly juiced?
                Comment
                • matt1216
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 10-27-11
                  • 14683

                  #988
                  because of the head to head no, but I see Isner finding a way to win today. He may need 25 aces tonight
                  Comment
                  • Hardcoar
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 02-17-13
                    • 15606

                    #989
                    INB4Isner21
                    Comment
                    • Semper Fidelis
                      SBR MVP
                      • 09-22-11
                      • 1999

                      #990
                      Hey there EP, how much did you sprinkle on your Anderson future? I may have put too much on mine (more than I placed on Nishi for sure) - don't bet on futures too often - but still had enough to hedge a little on Cilic. Just wish I had more to hedge with. I'll end up in the black no matter what happens, but I'll be up a LOT more if Anderson comes through today! Just wanted to see what your strategy is when you make your futures - straight wagers on a select few? Or do you try to spread the money in different amounts to ensure the same amount of profit no matter who wins (i.e. larger amounts on lower odds futures and smaller amounts on the higher odds)? Thanks for sharing your thoughts/strategies buddy!
                      Comment
                      • Hardcoar
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 02-17-13
                        • 15606

                        #991
                        I think Anderson stands a better chance than the market thinks... he looked really focused and serious last night.
                        Comment
                        • fitguy67
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 03-13-11
                          • 5082

                          #992
                          Originally posted by Semper Fidelis
                          Hey there EP, how much did you sprinkle on your Anderson future? I may have put too much on mine (more than I placed on Nishi for sure) - don't bet on futures too often - but still had enough to hedge a little on Cilic. Just wish I had more to hedge with. I'll end up in the black no matter what happens, but I'll be up a LOT more if Anderson comes through today! Just wanted to see what your strategy is when you make your futures - straight wagers on a select few? Or do you try to spread the money in different amounts to ensure the same amount of profit no matter who wins (i.e. larger amounts on lower odds futures and smaller amounts on the higher odds)? Thanks for sharing your thoughts/strategies buddy!


                          this calculator is very handy for achieving the IDGARAWH ("i don't give a rat's ass what happens") state of hedge-induced bliss

                          i'm in the identical quandary my friend...i put a full unit on the A-man at +1026 when EP first posted his tournament preview...

                          now what to do...mechanically "greening out" a-la-calculator will guarantee just a quarter of the full let-it-ride amount...

                          will adopt a "wait and see" (actually "deer in the headlights") approach and hope like hell Andy gets off to a good start and allows us to green out with a much higher (say half or better, rather than the current quarter) proportion of the let-it-ride gain...if the reverse happens tho it could be an afternoon of lamentation and self-loathing
                          Last edited by fitguy67; 02-23-14, 03:31 PM.
                          Comment
                          • EaglesPhan36
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 12-06-06
                            • 71662

                            #993
                            Sorry missed all these. Futures I standardly use 0.5 unit unless they are close to Even odds where I might risk a full unit.
                            Comment
                            • EaglesPhan36
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 12-06-06
                              • 71662

                              #994
                              2014 Season Overall Profit: +1.09
                              Comment
                              • EaglesPhan36
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 12-06-06
                                • 71662

                                #995
                                Mini previews for Dubai & Acapulco, the two tournaments I will be following this week.

                                ATP Acapulco

                                1st Round Upset Watch
                                Karlovic over Isner
                                Qualifier over Simon
                                Roger-Vasselin over F.Lopez
                                [ERV might wind up the favorite]

                                Preview:
                                Ferrer is the top seed as Acapulco switches from clay to outdoor hard courts. I don't expect the transition from dirt to hardcourt to affect Ferrer much. Kevin Anderson comes in off a tough three set loss to Cilic in the Delray Beach Final. He might be on upset watch depending on his draw of qualifiers. Roger-Vasselin or F.Lopez might be one to watch in this quarter if the seeds flop. Isner is the 3rd seed and leads the 2nd quarter. Isner still has not looked quite right to me, so Karlovic has a chance to pull the upset if he recovered from the virus that took him out last week. Pospisil is supposed to be back this week as the 8th seed. Don't touch him until you see him play. Dare I say, watch out for Chardy here. Andy Murray, Grigor Dimitrov & Ernests Gulbis lead the bottom of the draw. I like Murray's draw with Simon as the other seed in his quarter. Simon has been struggling now with a back issue and Murray needs to find the range now to push himself back to 100%. Dimitrov and Gulbis is a quarterfinal we might not see if Gulbis struggles to adapt to the courts after a long week of winning in Marseille. It would be an electric QF though if the Latvian can recover and keep his form intact. Dimitrov has the draw to get to the semis.

                                Futures:
                                No prices available. Think Murray, Dimitrov and monitor the other half of the draw for some potential big prices. This tournament with a new surface is one where it might pay to watch a round before you invest.

                                ---------------------------------

                                ATP Dubai

                                1st Round Upset Watch
                                Lacko over Turnsunov
                                Stakhovsky over Dodig


                                Preview:
                                Djokovic has won four of the last five Dubai titles. Only Roger Federer broke his stranglehold on this event two years ago. Overall, Djokovic has lost just three matches out of 31 here. The top four seeds have generally made the semis over the past three years with few exceptions. Djokovic has a fairly simple draw. Expect him to have focus and motivation this week. Federer has a workable draw and with an out-of-form Tursunov as the seed in his quarter, he should find a way to work through. The bottom of the draw should provide a bit more drama. Berdych and Tsonga land in the same quarter of the draw here. Tsonga has some miles on him after Marseille. Dodig and Stakhovsky is a good 1st rounder. Don't overlook Davydenko here if Tsonga shows any fatigue. I like Berdych though. Del Potro lands as the third seed. His wrist is still something to consider, but not too heavily. Kohlschreiber is the other seed in that quarter. Watch out for Kolhi or fellow German Florian Mayer if Del Potro's form is less than stellar.

                                Futures:
                                Djokovic @ -150. Berdych @ +550. Djokovic is short and a lot of people don't like investing on that price, but his draw and history here make him worthwhile to me. Berdych is in the best form of the bottom half players and makes sense to me. You shouldn't have to worry about him until a potential QF with Tsonga that may not materialize.

                                Comment
                                • EaglesPhan36
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 12-06-06
                                  • 71662

                                  #996
                                  2.24.14
                                  ATP Dubai: Lacko +170
                                  Comment
                                  • burmaldo
                                    SBR High Roller
                                    • 02-07-14
                                    • 221

                                    #997
                                    Rolling with you EP... BOL
                                    Comment
                                    • EaglesPhan36
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 12-06-06
                                      • 71662

                                      #998
                                      Waiting for the # I can get via live betting, but Dubai: Federer-Becker Unders. Think 19 is the # likely still.
                                      Comment
                                      • EaglesPhan36
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 12-06-06
                                        • 71662

                                        #999
                                        ATP Dubai: Federer-Becker Under 19 [+105]
                                        Comment
                                        • Cappinpicks
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 03-11-10
                                          • 14986

                                          #1000
                                          Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                                          2.24.14
                                          ATP Dubai: Lacko +170
                                          why this pick? I as astounded to see tursunov at a free money price... thought it'd be -600 or so
                                          Comment
                                          • CallMeGENO
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 03-14-10
                                            • 749

                                            #1001
                                            yay under! feds had to make it interesting there at the end.
                                            Comment
                                            • EaglesPhan36
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 12-06-06
                                              • 71662

                                              #1002
                                              Originally posted by Cappinpicks
                                              why this pick? I as astounded to see tursunov at a free money price... thought it'd be -600 or so
                                              -600? Man you oughta ask SBR for a job as their head linesmaker.

                                              I took a calculated risk that I like to take in a lot of tournaments with guys in poor form against guys who have come through qualis and are serviceable on the surface. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.
                                              Comment
                                              • bababooey13
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 11-13-13
                                                • 1897

                                                #1003
                                                Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                                                -600? Man you oughta ask SBR for a job as their head linesmaker.

                                                I took a calculated risk that I like to take in a lot of tournaments with guys in poor form against guys who have come through qualis and are serviceable on the surface. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.
                                                knew one of mayer or tursunov was going down.. we went on the wrong dog.
                                                Comment
                                                • Hardcoar
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 02-17-13
                                                  • 15606

                                                  #1004
                                                  Yeah I thought Lacko at those odds was pretty good.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • matt1216
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 10-27-11
                                                    • 14683

                                                    #1005
                                                    Originally posted by Hardcoar
                                                    Yeah I thought Lacko at those odds was pretty good.
                                                    I sense sarcasm.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • EaglesPhan36
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 12-06-06
                                                      • 71662

                                                      #1006
                                                      Originally posted by bababooey13
                                                      knew one of mayer or tursunov was going down.. we went on the wrong dog.
                                                      Mayer choked. Up 4-2 in the 3rd. Shameful, but he has to prove he is a flake just in case you ever think to trust him.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Hardcoar
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 02-17-13
                                                        • 15606

                                                        #1007
                                                        Originally posted by matt1216
                                                        I sense sarcasm.
                                                        There isn't any.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • poet
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 08-11-13
                                                          • 796

                                                          #1008
                                                          EP, what do you think about Belluci's chances in Brazil (first round). I've read that he is in good form and injury free, playing a tournament he has won. The price opened at -150 and is now at -140.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • EaglesPhan36
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 12-06-06
                                                            • 71662

                                                            #1009
                                                            Not really paying attention to that tournament this week. Two cents though ....

                                                            I hate when guys play back-to-back weeks like he is with Giraldo. it's tough to gauge IMO if that helps or hinders the winner from the previous week especially when the match goes three sets like it did.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Hardcoar
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 02-17-13
                                                              • 15606

                                                              #1010
                                                              If the crowd is the same size as for Pella-Mayer, count him the f*ck out.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • EaglesPhan36
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 12-06-06
                                                                • 71662

                                                                #1011
                                                                2014 Season Overall Profit: +1.11


                                                                Comment
                                                                • bababooey13
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 11-13-13
                                                                  • 1897

                                                                  #1012
                                                                  Originally posted by Hardcoar
                                                                  If the crowd is the same size as for Pella-Mayer, count him the f*ck out.
                                                                  i dunno if he loses that first match but ya talk about a shitty tournament holy shit i hope every match isn't that brutal.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • EaglesPhan36
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 12-06-06
                                                                    • 71662

                                                                    #1013
                                                                    2.25.14
                                                                    ATP Dubai: Stakhovsky +200
                                                                    ATP Dubai Parlay: Gabashvili + Davydenko +110
                                                                    Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 02-25-14, 01:14 AM.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • OhMyEli
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 07-17-12
                                                                      • 1164

                                                                      #1014
                                                                      Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                                                                      2.25.14
                                                                      ATP Dubai: Stakhovsky +200
                                                                      That one caught my eye, I actually thought it'd be closer to even. In the end though I feel like these early round "too good to be true" plays are too good to be true so I just went with the high over, thinking both guys will play an inconsistent 3 sets
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • EaglesPhan36
                                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                                        • 12-06-06
                                                                        • 71662

                                                                        #1015
                                                                        Added parlay. Wonk wonk.
                                                                        Comment
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