EP36's Fuzzy Tennis Balls
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BumdealSBR MVP
- 12-17-13
- 3954
#981Comment -
EaglesPhan36SBR Aristocracy
- 12-06-06
- 71662
#982It was Wimbledon where he played him tough-ish. Five sets, but Ferrer killed him the last two sets.Comment -
HardcoarSBR Posting Legend
- 02-17-13
- 15606
#983Do you mean Wimbledon, by chance?Comment -
matt1216SBR Posting Legend
- 10-27-11
- 14683
#984woah!! Dolgo's dad was at these matches?? No fckin wonderComment -
matt1216SBR Posting Legend
- 10-27-11
- 14683
#985Ahh yes wimbeldon, my badComment -
matt1216SBR Posting Legend
- 10-27-11
- 14683
#986Here's a question. I didn't watch the entire Dolgo/ferrer match, could his game challenge Nadals just a bit? I know it seems silly to ask but dolgo pretty easily beat ferrer. Or was Ferrer just off today?Comment -
riffraff24SBR Hall of Famer
- 04-20-11
- 7234
#987Holy moly, cilic -195 vs Isner? I know Isner has looked really bad but isnt that a bit overly juiced?Comment -
matt1216SBR Posting Legend
- 10-27-11
- 14683
#988because of the head to head no, but I see Isner finding a way to win today. He may need 25 aces tonightComment -
HardcoarSBR Posting Legend
- 02-17-13
- 15606
#989INB4Isner21
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Semper FidelisSBR MVP
- 09-22-11
- 1999
#990Hey there EP, how much did you sprinkle on your Anderson future? I may have put too much on mine (more than I placed on Nishi for sure) - don't bet on futures too often - but still had enough to hedge a little on Cilic. Just wish I had more to hedge with. I'll end up in the black no matter what happens, but I'll be up a LOT more if Anderson comes through today! Just wanted to see what your strategy is when you make your futures - straight wagers on a select few? Or do you try to spread the money in different amounts to ensure the same amount of profit no matter who wins (i.e. larger amounts on lower odds futures and smaller amounts on the higher odds)? Thanks for sharing your thoughts/strategies buddy!Comment -
HardcoarSBR Posting Legend
- 02-17-13
- 15606
#991I think Anderson stands a better chance than the market thinks... he looked really focused and serious last night.Comment -
fitguy67SBR Hall of Famer
- 03-13-11
- 5082
#992Hey there EP, how much did you sprinkle on your Anderson future? I may have put too much on mine (more than I placed on Nishi for sure) - don't bet on futures too often - but still had enough to hedge a little on Cilic. Just wish I had more to hedge with. I'll end up in the black no matter what happens, but I'll be up a LOT more if Anderson comes through today! Just wanted to see what your strategy is when you make your futures - straight wagers on a select few? Or do you try to spread the money in different amounts to ensure the same amount of profit no matter who wins (i.e. larger amounts on lower odds futures and smaller amounts on the higher odds)? Thanks for sharing your thoughts/strategies buddy!
this calculator is very handy for achieving the IDGARAWH ("i don't give a rat's ass what happens") state of hedge-induced bliss
i'm in the identical quandary my friend...i put a full unit on the A-man at +1026 when EP first posted his tournament preview...
now what to do...mechanically "greening out" a-la-calculator will guarantee just a quarter of the full let-it-ride amount...
will adopt a "wait and see" (actually "deer in the headlights") approach and hope like hell Andy gets off to a good start and allows us to green out with a much higher (say half or better, rather than the current quarter) proportion of the let-it-ride gain...if the reverse happens tho it could be an afternoon of lamentation and self-loathingLast edited by fitguy67; 02-23-14, 03:31 PM.Comment -
EaglesPhan36SBR Aristocracy
- 12-06-06
- 71662
#993Sorry missed all these. Futures I standardly use 0.5 unit unless they are close to Even odds where I might risk a full unit.Comment -
EaglesPhan36SBR Aristocracy
- 12-06-06
- 71662
#9942014 Season Overall Profit: +1.09Comment -
EaglesPhan36SBR Aristocracy
- 12-06-06
- 71662
#995Mini previews for Dubai & Acapulco, the two tournaments I will be following this week.
ATP Acapulco
1st Round Upset Watch
Karlovic over Isner
Qualifier over Simon
Roger-Vasselin over F.Lopez [ERV might wind up the favorite]
Preview: Ferrer is the top seed as Acapulco switches from clay to outdoor hard courts. I don't expect the transition from dirt to hardcourt to affect Ferrer much. Kevin Anderson comes in off a tough three set loss to Cilic in the Delray Beach Final. He might be on upset watch depending on his draw of qualifiers. Roger-Vasselin or F.Lopez might be one to watch in this quarter if the seeds flop. Isner is the 3rd seed and leads the 2nd quarter. Isner still has not looked quite right to me, so Karlovic has a chance to pull the upset if he recovered from the virus that took him out last week. Pospisil is supposed to be back this week as the 8th seed. Don't touch him until you see him play. Dare I say, watch out for Chardy here. Andy Murray, Grigor Dimitrov & Ernests Gulbis lead the bottom of the draw. I like Murray's draw with Simon as the other seed in his quarter. Simon has been struggling now with a back issue and Murray needs to find the range now to push himself back to 100%. Dimitrov and Gulbis is a quarterfinal we might not see if Gulbis struggles to adapt to the courts after a long week of winning in Marseille. It would be an electric QF though if the Latvian can recover and keep his form intact. Dimitrov has the draw to get to the semis.
Futures: No prices available. Think Murray, Dimitrov and monitor the other half of the draw for some potential big prices. This tournament with a new surface is one where it might pay to watch a round before you invest.
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ATP Dubai
1st Round Upset Watch
Lacko over Turnsunov
Stakhovsky over Dodig
Preview: Djokovic has won four of the last five Dubai titles. Only Roger Federer broke his stranglehold on this event two years ago. Overall, Djokovic has lost just three matches out of 31 here. The top four seeds have generally made the semis over the past three years with few exceptions. Djokovic has a fairly simple draw. Expect him to have focus and motivation this week. Federer has a workable draw and with an out-of-form Tursunov as the seed in his quarter, he should find a way to work through. The bottom of the draw should provide a bit more drama. Berdych and Tsonga land in the same quarter of the draw here. Tsonga has some miles on him after Marseille. Dodig and Stakhovsky is a good 1st rounder. Don't overlook Davydenko here if Tsonga shows any fatigue. I like Berdych though. Del Potro lands as the third seed. His wrist is still something to consider, but not too heavily. Kohlschreiber is the other seed in that quarter. Watch out for Kolhi or fellow German Florian Mayer if Del Potro's form is less than stellar.
Futures: Djokovic @ -150. Berdych @ +550. Djokovic is short and a lot of people don't like investing on that price, but his draw and history here make him worthwhile to me. Berdych is in the best form of the bottom half players and makes sense to me. You shouldn't have to worry about him until a potential QF with Tsonga that may not materialize.
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EaglesPhan36SBR Aristocracy
- 12-06-06
- 71662
#9962.24.14
ATP Dubai: Lacko +170
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burmaldoSBR High Roller
- 02-07-14
- 221
#997Rolling with you EP... BOLComment -
EaglesPhan36SBR Aristocracy
- 12-06-06
- 71662
#998Waiting for the # I can get via live betting, but Dubai: Federer-Becker Unders. Think 19 is the # likely still.Comment -
EaglesPhan36SBR Aristocracy
- 12-06-06
- 71662
#999ATP Dubai: Federer-Becker Under 19 [+105]Comment -
CallMeGENOSBR Wise Guy
- 03-14-10
- 749
#1001yay under! feds had to make it interesting there at the end.Comment -
EaglesPhan36SBR Aristocracy
- 12-06-06
- 71662
#1002
I took a calculated risk that I like to take in a lot of tournaments with guys in poor form against guys who have come through qualis and are serviceable on the surface. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.Comment -
bababooey13SBR MVP
- 11-13-13
- 1897
#1003-600? Man you oughta ask SBR for a job as their head linesmaker.
I took a calculated risk that I like to take in a lot of tournaments with guys in poor form against guys who have come through qualis and are serviceable on the surface. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.Comment -
HardcoarSBR Posting Legend
- 02-17-13
- 15606
#1004Yeah I thought Lacko at those odds was pretty good.Comment -
poetSBR Wise Guy
- 08-11-13
- 796
#1008EP, what do you think about Belluci's chances in Brazil (first round). I've read that he is in good form and injury free, playing a tournament he has won. The price opened at -150 and is now at -140.Comment -
EaglesPhan36SBR Aristocracy
- 12-06-06
- 71662
#1009Not really paying attention to that tournament this week. Two cents though ....
I hate when guys play back-to-back weeks like he is with Giraldo. it's tough to gauge IMO if that helps or hinders the winner from the previous week especially when the match goes three sets like it did.Comment -
HardcoarSBR Posting Legend
- 02-17-13
- 15606
#1010If the crowd is the same size as for Pella-Mayer, count him the f*ck out.Comment -
EaglesPhan36SBR Aristocracy
- 12-06-06
- 71662
#10112014 Season Overall Profit: +1.11
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EaglesPhan36SBR Aristocracy
- 12-06-06
- 71662
#10132.25.14
ATP Dubai: Stakhovsky +200
ATP Dubai Parlay: Gabashvili + Davydenko +110
Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 02-25-14, 01:14 AM.Comment -
OhMyEliSBR MVP
- 07-17-12
- 1164
#1014That one caught my eye, I actually thought it'd be closer to even. In the end though I feel like these early round "too good to be true" plays are too good to be true so I just went with the high over, thinking both guys will play an inconsistent 3 setsComment -
EaglesPhan36SBR Aristocracy
- 12-06-06
- 71662
#1015Added parlay. Wonk wonk.Comment
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