EP36's Fuzzy Tennis Balls

**Semper Fidelis** · 02-17-14, 01:13 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

6-4, 4-6, 7-6. That would be how so professor. Fantastic attempt at a choke though. Blew a break lead in the 3rd and a 3-0 start to the TB in the 3rd before righting the ship.

Good job EP! I've gotten to where I pretty much always tail your futures picks, as you seem to be pretty good with them at times. The odds for Anderson have already dropped to +900, and Nishi's to +350! I was thinking about possibly making one on either Cilic or Isner and wanted to get your opinions on that. With the way Cilic's been playing it almost seems wrong not to, as I don't think there is anyone in the draw he can't conceivably beat. Isner is more of a homer bet, as he's my favorite player, but will probably lay off him, especially with the uncertainty of his recent injuries.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-17-14, 03:17 PM

Only worry for me on Cilic is fatigue and travel. Isner I need to see a matchfrom him first

**STAY STRONG** · 02-17-14, 04:30 PM

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-17-14, 05:35 PM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Care to share your reasoning?

Garcia-Lopez was very inconsistent since he turned to clay. Won some that he definitely should have lost. Klizan got through qualis and with a tournament being played for the first time - getting court time ahead of your opponent is a definite plus.

**Hardcoar** · 02-17-14, 05:53 PM

Thanks, and congrat's!

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-17-14, 05:58 PM

Qualis match-ups in 1st round in Delray Beach ...

S.Johnson-Kukushkin
Odesnik-Haas
Groth (Lucky Loser)-Karlovic
Elias-Nishikori
R.Williams-Falla

Williams slots into Pospisil's slot. If a qualifier is to make a run, I'd look at Johnson or Williams. Both might need help from fatigued or injured opponents in their draws ... but are capable.

**SirtySree** · 02-17-14, 06:10 PM

Is Pospisil confirmed out? If he is, what you reckon bout Isner to win his quarter since all the matchups are reasonably easy and he's usually good in the US. Just worried he might still be injured/rusty.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-17-14, 06:52 PM

He is out. Seems easy for Isner so he will probably blow it.

**SirtySree** · 02-17-14, 07:10 PM

Ok seems like enough value @1.9 though so just going to do a normal size bet on it. Isner is usually consistent in the US and only sucks away so should be ok unless his injury is still there.

**Shifty107** · 02-17-14, 07:30 PM

Hey EP. How you going mate? Any thoughts on the Querry Lopez match? I have Querry on the last leg of a $200 multi paying out $2400 and was thinking of just hedging on Lopez and guarantee myself $1k profit.

I know money wise that is the only option.

However I would still like you input on the outcome of the match. Neither has impressed lately but I just felt that homecourt and the hardcourt would suit Querry more. But he has not looked too good lately. But then again neither had Felix.

**matt1216** · 02-17-14, 08:13 PM

I have lopez first set ML shifty. Lopez has been playing well lately, he lost to a serve bot and Murray recently. I think mentally Querry is in trouble. I believe Querry will have to squeak out a win against a low tier opponent to get his confidence back.

good luck

**Shifty107** · 02-17-14, 08:20 PM

Originally posted by matt1216

I have lopez first set ML shifty. Lopez has been playing well lately, he lost to a serve bot and Murray recently. I think mentally Querry is in trouble. I believe Querry will have to squeak out a win against a low tier opponent to get his confidence back.

good luck

Thanks Matt. GL with the first set bet mate. Already hedged with Felix on the ML. Don't even need to watch the match now.

Peace

**Spanks** · 02-17-14, 10:30 PM

Originally posted by Shifty107

Thanks Matt. GL with the first set bet mate. Already hedged with Felix on the ML. Don't even need to watch the match now.

Peace

great hedge man...good work...

**DownTheLine** · 02-17-14, 10:35 PM

I was on Querrey first set. He's never lost a 1st set to Lopez on any sort of HC. No one deserved the first set tbh, it was brutal tennis. Querrey needs to retire.

**matt1216** · 02-17-14, 10:45 PM

Originally posted by DownTheLine

I was on Querrey first set. He's never lost a 1st set to Lopez on any sort of HC. No one deserved the first set tbh, it was brutal tennis. Querrey needs to retire.

I took lopez to win second set @2.15 odds. I needed some chase back after the ugly first set.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-17-14, 10:53 PM

Smart hedge.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-18-14, 12:06 AM

2.18.14
Parlay: [Delray Beach] Anderson + [Rio] Andujar -125
ATP Rio: Zeballos +190
ATP Delray Beach: Vesely +105
ATP Delray Beach: Klahn +125

**STAY STRONG** · 02-18-14, 12:13 AM

Take me in your arms.

**matt1216** · 02-18-14, 12:20 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

2.18.14
Parlay: [Delray Beach] Anderson + [Rio] Andujar -125
ATP Rio: Zeballos +190
ATP Delray Beach: Vesely +105
ATP Delray Beach: Klahn +125

They all decent, good luck man

**ParlayininHTown** · 02-18-14, 12:20 AM

EP, you reckon either Baghdatis or Tankydenko will retire before 2015?

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-18-14, 12:31 AM

I don't know. I mean even though they both are horrid right now, they can both still produce some solid tennis and where else are they going to make this sort of money? I'd be more shocked if Baghdatis quit before he turns 30. He's only 28. Even if he flounders through the next two years with the same sort of BS results, he's made at least 300K in each of the last seven years.

**ParlayininHTown** · 02-18-14, 12:55 AM

The money factor definitely seems to be keeping Davydenko around at this point, but his days are numbered. I don't think he'll hang it up that soon, because he has maintained a decent ranking.

I suppose if Baghdatis can play well enough to avoid qualifiers and the Challenger circuit, he has no reason to give it up. I just wonder with him especially, because he really seemed to fall of last year. I'm not sure where his heart is at, and his ranking is falling toward 200. He has shown no life on clay, so I don't see him picking up points and making a run until at least this summer. Even at 28, I question whether he wants to keep pursuing this when his best days are behind him and he may be staring at a long road back to being in main draws on a consistent basis.

Maybe if he gets going this summer on the hard courts, he can put this to rest. I like his character, and I would like to see him stick around the sport for a few more seasons.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-18-14, 01:57 PM

Well at least my bigger play on the parlay worked out. Doggies not barking today for me. Didn't expect anything like yesterday, but disappointed that not one of them is even coming close really. Klahn was the one I thought had the best shot.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-18-14, 02:32 PM

Adding...

ATP Delray Beach: R.Williams -135

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-18-14, 08:22 PM

2014 Season Overall Profit: +0.46

For anyone that gives two shits, just an update on my wager size. Parlays are to win/risk one unit. All sides, games spreads and totals will be to win/risk 0.5 unitunless noted otherwise.

**fitguy67** · 02-18-14, 09:22 PM

standard american bet-sizing (dogs to risk/faves to win), i presume...

so for -137 play (either straight-up or combined parlay odds):
*parlay: risk 1.37u to win 1u
**straight-up: risk 0.685u to win 0.5u

and for +137 play (either straight-up or combined parlay odds):
*parlay: risk 1u to win 1.37u
**straight-up: 0.5u to win 0.685

__________

do i presume correctly, EP?

**zec** · 02-18-14, 09:26 PM

Yes, that's what he does

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-18-14, 11:23 PM

You got it. I decided to stay with the mostly smaller wager sizes after the Australian Open and enduring a blood bath the week after - a reminder of how testy a lot of these 250 tourneys are and even some of the 500s.

**Semper Fidelis** · 02-18-14, 11:30 PM

Hey there EP, glad I held off on that Isner future - he definitely doesn't look 100%, you could clearly see the rust from coming off an injury. That's not to say he can't possibly regain his form in the next couple matches, but I'm thinking of fading him starting the next round. Have a feeling he'll end up retiring by the end of the tourney. Btw, who is the defending champion of this tourney? I could look it up, but am feeling lazy, as I'm sure you already know the answer lol.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-18-14, 11:46 PM

It's Gulbis who is not here. Yeah, I really think Isner's quarter is where the surprise comes from this tournament. I thought Rhyne Williams if a qualifier came through - but this might be the perfect scenario for Baghdatis to get gifted something nice. I think the winner of that match goes to the semis and the shot could be there for a Finals spots if Cilic and/or Nishikori doesn't care to play long this week - although I think Nishi will be here to win. Florida is his home state now and he usually plays well here if he's fit.

How f-ing shitty is Ryan Harrison? Loser loses a set to an obviously injured player ... but moves on when Lu retires.

**16johnnymac** · 02-19-14, 12:09 AM

Need advice on -190 went up from -180 Lennard-struff I know it's a lot of juice but got play from a reliable friend advice please on thoughts?

Thanks

Jmac

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-19-14, 12:51 AM

Not monitoring that tournament really. Go for it if you like it.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-19-14, 12:54 AM

2.19.14
Parlay: [Rio] Andujar + [Delray Beach] F.Lopez +134

**Cessation** · 02-19-14, 01:07 AM

RE Isner future, I found this when looking for info on a few at the top of the futures market.

John Isner hoping to make the most of Delray Beach Open
By John Evenson

The ATP World Tour will take over the the Delray Beach Tennis Open by the Venetian Las Vegas on Monday, and the # 1 player in the country, and the # 1 seed, John Isner says he's ready to get into the groove.

"I haven't really practices that much since the Australian Open," admits Isner, " so I'm just trying to get fit, just get the feel of putting hours on the court."

Isner says he loves player at Delray, an easy drive from his home in Tampa, and that he should be in for a challenge with the talent he'll be facing this week. Win or lose he says he's using the tournament to build for later in the year.

"I want to win this tournament, but if that doesn't happen so be it."

It is the sort of tournament that if he was fit Isner would win on his ear. That put me off quite a lot. I ended up taking Haas at 6.50 with Cilic/Nishi/Isner all in the bottom half.

**Nyjrkm06** · 02-19-14, 03:16 AM

Solid Work EP36 keep it up man