Next HEAVY Favorite to be UPSET today is...

[Regul8er]

It's hilarious....I went 0-6 today, and I bet 5 dogs. A day absolutely full of upsets, and I couldnt hit one....in fact the only favorite I took, bit the dust hard (Mahut)

Benneteau, Petkovic, Muguruza, Resiter and Jovanovski all sucked.

[frugalgambler]

It's hilarious....I went 0-6 today, and I bet 5 dogs. A day absolutely full of upsets, and I couldnt hit one....in fact the only favorite I took, bit the dust hard (Mahut)

Benneteau, Petkovic, Muguruza, Resiter and Jovanovski all sucked.

Yeah, funny as hell. At least I got Cornet, but missed with Benny, Muguruza and Jovanovski. How come you did not bet against pova, I thought you were big on that Portugese player ?

[Hardcoar]

What a day...just can't see how so many favs and big names have already gone down this tourny.

Can't attribute it to the surface really. If the surface really is worse/slippery, it is so for both players. If anything it should help the more experienced and better players because they would be able to adjust better.

Grass adds immensely to the chances of injury occurring. The greater the element of chance, the less performance/skill matters. Basically, if injuries didn't happen, you'd see far less upsets despite injuries having the same chances of occurring for favorites and underdogs alike.

On the other hand the grass surface also changes conditions for the play itself which favors certain players more than others. Generally speaking I would think upsets are easier to achieve on grass since favorites are far more likely to break serve than underdogs, and as such are more affected by the lessened chance of breaking due to the faster surface.

The latter point you make however is very valid, but doesn't quite make up for the added element of chance and reduced probability of breaks of service.

Just as you say, however, clearly this is an absolutely, sensationally extraordinary day despite the factors discussed above, and has to do with very improbable results aligning for the most part by virtue of chance unrelated of any surface differences.

[BigPage25]

Wow nice hit to all the people that bet against sharapova today.....

[Hardcoar]

Which aren't many at all I'm sure.

I mean after all, not even I bet on LdB!

[MagicDiceFlow]

What a day...just can't see how so many favs and big names have already gone down this tourny.

Can't attribute it to the surface really. If the surface really is worse/slippery, it is so for both players. If anything it should help the more experienced and better players because they would be able to adjust better.

I'm almost certain the slips/injuries today are caused by this different grass service. If you look at how the ball is bouncing off this surface, it looks hard as hell, like cement. There is no way that you have all these top tier players with Fed being the icing on the cake struggling like this. It's because they are not used to this harder grass surface. This harder surface also evens the playing field for lower tier players that normally struggle but have big serves.

Case in point Stakhovsky who's always known for having nothing but a big serve.....pulls off the greatest upset in slam history. This upset is way worse than the Nadal upset of last year because this is Fed's best surface.

Maybe they did it to give Murray an edge since his best surface leans more towards hardcourts , who knows.....but there's something going on with this year's surface imo.

[cappoblanca]

It could be that the lawn groundskeepers, in an effort to sustain a greener lawn around the well-worn service area, added a commercial grass-type stain to enhance the grass to a better color for tv audiences. This stain could be the result of many falls and slips.

[Sport_Fish]

Grass adds immensely to the chances of injury occurring. The greater the element of chance, the less performance/skill matters. Basically, if injuries didn't happen, you'd see far less upsets despite injuries having the same chances of occurring for favorites and underdogs alike.

On the other hand the grass surface also changes conditions for the play itself which favors certain players more than others. Generally speaking I would think upsets are easier to achieve on grass since favorites are far more likely to break serve than underdogs, and as such are more affected by the lessened chance of breaking due to the faster surface.

The latter point you make however is very valid, but doesn't quite make up for the added element of chance and reduced probability of breaks of service.

Just as you say, however, clearly this is an absolutely, sensationally extraordinary day despite the factors discussed above, and has to do with very improbable results aligning for the most part by virtue of chance unrelated of any surface differences.

Yeah I guess the surface is definitely contributing to the injuries with slips and falls - but I was just surprised it affected that many big names to such an extent.

I'm almost certain the slips/injuries today are caused by this different grass service. If you look at how the ball is bouncing off this surface, it looks hard as hell, like cement. There is no way that you have all these top tier players with Fed being the icing on the cake struggling like this. It's because they are not used to this harder grass surface. This harder surface also evens the playing field for lower tier players that normally struggle but have big serves.

Case in point Stakhovsky who's always known for having nothing but a big serve.....pulls off the greatest upset in slam history. This upset is way worse than the Nadal upset of last year because this is Fed's best surface.

Maybe they did it to give Murray an edge since his best surface leans more towards hardcourts , who knows.....but there's something going on with this year's surface imo.

I agree on the surface and the way its playing different - but like I mentioned, its not like the players causing these upsets are more used to the 'new' stuff than the big guns. As u mentioned with Stak and his serve, at the same time, Fed's serve is no joke either so it should more or less not be a deciding factor in the grand scheme of things, esp over the course of a Best of 5.

Anyways, I really think the surface has very little to do with the upsets, but it does have alot to do with the retirements, as EP mentioned. And cases like Nadal/Federer may just be an upset and nothing else. Don't know what happened with Sharapova though didn't see the match, or Tsonga (guessing he fell too?).

[Hardcoar]

Believe me, I'm as surprised as you are, and it's not all due to the surface, but to a far greater extent due to extremely unlikely probabilities occurring. I think what we've seen in the past couple of days goes well and beyond what one might expect from the surface.

[Hardcoar]

Tsonga didn't fall but it's somewhat enigmatic just what the nature of his injury is. See my previous posts in another thread for more details. I can't recall which thread at the moment but obviously if you look through my profile and the latest posts...

Sharapova took several falls but frankly put it was more than anything a case of LdB raping shit up today. Top players generally speaking need something to blame.

I do not envy the new head groundskeeping guy! Oh boy...

[shari91]

Tsonga didn't fall but it's somewhat enigmatic just what the nature of his injury is. See my previous posts in another thread for more details. I can't recall which thread at the moment but obviously if you look through my profile and the latest posts...

Sharapova took several falls but frankly put it was more than anything a case of LdB raping shit up today. Top players generally speaking need something to blame.

I do not envy the new head groundskeeping guy! Oh boy...

Sharapova asked a reporter in her presser to name one match where she's fallen that many times. And then when he couldn't she asked him to name a match when so many players were playing slip and slide on the courts, top ranked or not. Of course she was a bitch after and reminded him that she was a Slam winner and how many weeks she'd been at #1 but she had a point. She got smoked today regardless by a better player on the day but even in the Jankovic/Dolonc match where I was on Dolonc for a whopping $20 I can honestly say as soon as Janko slipped she started to restrict her movement to protect her knee and ankle. I have never seen this many players fall or retire, ignoring the upsets. Just the sheer falling alone is something dodgy when there hasn't been rain.

[Gus Fring]

Shari, but isn't it slippery for both players?

[EaglesPhan36]

Case in point Stakhovsky who's always known for having nothing but a big serve.....pulls off the greatest upset in slam history. This upset is way worse than the Nadal upset of last year because this is Fed's best surface.
.

To this date, I still don't think much trumps Soderling over Nadal in 2009. Sure, Soderling was a Top 20 player - but we're talking Nadal in his prime. Nadal who had never lost at RG in his first four trips to RG prior to that year and had dropped ONE set in his previous 17 matches at RG. And had beaten Soderling 6-1, 6-0 in Rome the month before.

I'd rate Federer losing a bigger deal if he was still in his prime. At this stage, him losing in Slams is not as shocking unless it's a qualifier with hardly any experience or teenager. Might be his best surface still, but he's certainly slipped quite a bit overall.

[Sport_Fish]

Sharapova asked a reporter in her presser to name one match where she's fallen that many times. And then when he couldn't she asked him to name a match when so many players were playing slip and slide on the courts, top ranked or not. Of course she was a bitch after and reminded him that she was a Slam winner and how many weeks she'd been at #1 but she had a point. She got smoked today regardless by a better player on the day but even in the Jankovic/Dolonc match where I was on Dolonc for a whopping $20 I can honestly say as soon as Janko slipped she started to restrict her movement to protect her knee and ankle. I have never seen this many players fall or retire, ignoring the upsets. Just the sheer falling alone is something dodgy when there hasn't been rain.

Link/Video ?

[theballsflop]

Are there any books that offer odds on the over/under for retirements that round? Will be interesting to see how the bookies come up with odds for THAT.

[Hardcoar]

Shari, but isn't it slippery for both players?

The greater the element of chance the more favorable it is for the worse player. Please see my previous posts in this thread...

[MiddleMan]

I'm hoping someone here can help me with something that may appear to be a relatively simple task, although I have spent the last five minutes looking at google images to no avail.

Basically I'm after a photo of the man who was in Sergiy Stakhovsky's box. Hes an older gentleman who's half bald. I need it for a lookalike.

Thanks.

[theballsflop]

Li Na to fall to Halep. 2.65, hit it!

[gcd8]

i've been waiting since i saw the bracket to pount halep against li na tommorow i should of saved some of my money instead of blowing it on garbine's sorry ass, i see garcia is down to 3600 down from 70-1 u can pretty much guarantee books won't be putting up 50-1 dogs anymore just like in horse racing kentucky derby and so on u don't see the 99-1 anymore

[gcd8]

pretty much the winner of makarova kvotiva will make the womens final

[MiddleMan]

I'll be happy with that, seeing as though I'm on Kvitova @ $4.80 to win her quarter.

[frugalgambler]

It's not only the actual falls, but also the increased risk of injury that affects the players. This is their livelihood. A serious injury would be very costly and probably disastrous for any non top-5 player. I bet a lot of them might be thinking "to hell with this BS Grand Slam, I gotta make sure my knees stay intact." We need to look for berserkers to bet on, anybody knows any ?

[theballsflop]

It's not only the actual falls, but also the increased risk of injury that affects the players. This is their livelihood. A serious injury would be very costly and probably disastrous for any non top-5 player. I bet a lot of them might be thinking "to hell with this BS Grand Slam, I gotta make sure my knees stay intact." We need to look for berserkers to bet on, anybody knows any ?

Not sure what you mean by berserkers, but Llodra and Youzhny will play their pants off. Both are favourites for their matchups though.

[frugalgambler]

Not sure what you mean by berserkers, but Llodra and Youzhny will play their pants off. Both are favourites for their matchups though.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DRbhNQUZYh0

[drfunkmaster]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DRbhNQUZYh0

WTF!!!

[alta]

I won't be surprised to see Raonic fall today to Sijsling +200.

[zizoudane10]

I won't be surprised to see Raonic fall today to Sijsling +200.

Yep, me too.

[Hardcoar]

I'm hoping someone here can help me with something that may appear to be a relatively simple task, although I have spent the last five minutes looking at google images to no avail.

Basically I'm after a photo of the man who was in Sergiy Stakhovsky's box. Hes an older gentleman who's half bald. I need it for a lookalike.

Thanks.

I'm a bit late since I only just got in but I think it's Youzhny's coach; Boris Sobkin.

Kinda looks like Rocky's coach, huh?

[Texas956]

Alright, seems like the BIGs are covering today. I sprinkled my lucky $27 on Wang and also on Reynolds. Why not??? The weather is shitty (rain delay), the courts suck, and I'm way up from my only two plays yesterday

[zizoudane10]

I won't be surprised to see Raonic fall today to Sijsling +200.

Yep, me too.

Sijsling 3:0