EP36's ACES

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-05-09, 10:14 PM

PBZ Zagreb Indoors: 2.6.09
*Hernych -105 (Zverev): Besides the one career meeting in which Hernych rolled Zverev after losing the 1st set, you have to like the Czech's form better in this tournament. Zverev is giving out break chances like candy, able to save 14/17 in his last match, but just 3/9 in round 1. Sooner or later, that will catch up to you. Hernych meanwhile steamrolled Mathieu, which looks less impressive with each loss by the Frenchman, still Hernych has been the more even of the two here in my book. I'll tip him to earn a hard fought trip to the semis.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-06-09, 10:29 AM

South Africa Open: 2.6.09
*Baghdatis -105 (Ferrer): I read some previews on this match and the writer struck me with his last line. This is a very even match, so "go with your favorite player." Baghdatis is one of mine, so I go with the better price here. If his serve pops like it did in Round 2 of this tournament, he has an extra weapon to defeat Ferrer. Should be a 3 set thrill ride!

**single shaker** · 02-06-09, 10:53 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

South Africa Open: 2.6.09
*Baghdatis -105 (Ferrer): I read some previews on this match and the writer struck me with his last line. This is a very even match, so "go with your favorite player." Baghdatis is one of mine, so I go with the better price here. If his serve pops like it did in Round 2 of this tournament, he has an extra weapon to defeat Ferrer. Should be a 3 set thrill ride!

i read that game totally differently from you, i like ferrer chances in this one.

i took ferrer in straight +210
and under 23 games -110.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-06-09, 11:30 AM

I actually liked Ferrer at first glance, then price went wacky for me up to +110 for Baghdatis and then settled back around the original line. Probably should have gone with the first glance as Ferrer won set one, 7-5 when Baggy choked on serve. Oh well.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-06-09, 11:49 AM

Baghdatis is done. Got broken in the 2nd, now down 3-1. Ferrer's serve has been solid all match. Someday, I'll learn to trust my instincts.

**single shaker** · 02-06-09, 12:11 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Baghdatis is done. Got broken in the 2nd, now down 3-1. Ferrer's serve has been solid all match. Someday, I'll learn to trust my instincts.

i think there are certain players that get overhyped, baghs is one of them, also gulbis and delpotro they all should be faded at any opportunities once get.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-06-09, 12:23 PM

I disagree there. I don't think he gets too much hoopla. He had some nice wins this year already, just happened to run into a better player today. I made some decent coin on him in the Aussie Open for a couple rounds. I just should have trusted my original research here because Baghdatis' serve was uneven between his first two matches, while Ferrer was steadier. Live & learn ... some day, maybe I'll learn.

**single shaker** · 02-06-09, 01:35 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

I disagree there. I don't think he gets too much hoopla. He had some nice wins this year already, just happened to run into a better player today. I made some decent coin on him in the Aussie Open for a couple rounds. I just should have trusted my original research here because Baghdatis' serve was uneven between his first two matches, while Ferrer was steadier. Live & learn ... some day, maybe I'll learn.

i have the same problem, i am really dedicating myself this year to become as impartial as possible, there is no names just player A and B when i do my analysis, i also stopped playing first rounds completely, and have majority of my picks starting from the quarters, so far it has been an OK year.

**noob45** · 02-06-09, 01:44 PM

Good luck

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-06-09, 02:35 PM

Originally posted by single shaker

i have the same problem, i am really dedicating myself this year to become as impartial as possible, there is no names just player A and B when i do my analysis, i also stopped playing first rounds completely, and have majority of my picks starting from the quarters, so far it has been an OK year.

Interesting about skipping first rounds. I find good value there though with some underdogs for the upsets, but I understand not wanting to play those matches. I'm usually pretty good on not betting "names" - to be honest, I probably would not have even bet the Ferrer-Baghdatis if the Hernych match hadn't been done so quick due to retirement from Zverev. I would have let that play out, but I had the money back, so I choked it away.

**single shaker** · 02-06-09, 03:27 PM

i decided for the amount of matches and amount of time i have to spend analyzing first rounds, it is just not worth it. and you never know which player is going to show up for the tournament (dedicated to win some matches, or let me just collect my appereance fees), on top of that if i go heavier for sets betting, over under, etc. my line is always around -110, vs. inferior lines i get on greek for straight betting. moreover, i have a data from this very tournament to support my picks. it takes some discipline not to get into early rounds because sometimes you see something that you think is obvious, but you have to remind yourself, there will be tennis matches tomorrow.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-06-09, 07:02 PM

Updated Record: 15-17 (-2.13)

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-07-09, 02:30 PM

ATP Movistar Open: 2.7.09
*Acasuso +175 (Robredo): Acasuso has an outstanding 15-5 mark in this tournament and won it back in 2006. For me, Robredo has been living on the edge a bit in his first two matches and likely would have lost yesterday against anyone with a killer instinct after laying a bagel in the opening set. Acasuso has shown little rust from a long layoff here as his serve has been steady. His 2nd serve greatly improved in his 2nd round match and will need to be top notch against the Spaniard. Robredo has been letting opponents stick around or beat him in sets, only to regroup thus far. I believe Acasuso on this court can take advantage of any lackadaisical play from Robredo if he allows for it. I'll take a small shot at this price.

**single shaker** · 02-07-09, 03:20 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

ATP Movistar Open: 2.7.09
*Acasuso +175 (Robredo): Acasuso has an outstanding 15-5 mark in this tournament and won it back in 2006. For me, Robredo has been living on the edge a bit in his first two matches and likely would have lost yesterday against anyone with a killer instinct after laying a bagel in the opening set. Acasuso has shown little rust from a long layoff here as his serve has been steady. His 2nd serve greatly improved in his 2nd round match and will need to be top notch against the Spaniard. Robredo has been letting opponents stick around or beat him in sets, only to regroup thus far. I believe Acasuso on this court can take advantage of any lackadaisical play from Robredo if he allows for it. I'll take a small shot at this price.

i have to disagree with you one more time eagle, acasuso has been impressive beating the rising star in bellucci and dismissing decoud who was probably on his last leg, however, it seem to me that robredo just underestimated chela ability and thought that it would be an easy victory for him, once he dropped the first set he was totally in control of the match.

in one clay court match between two, robredo was in total control, i would have lay some money on robredo but the line is at -215, which is a little too high, but i feel that robredo wants it a little more.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-07-09, 04:20 PM

We'll see. As I said in my write-up, I just think Robredo has been a bit lazy in two of his sets here (the 6-0 to Chela & the 7-6 he won from Dabul). Maybe he's focused now that the tourney is in the semis, but I'd rather take the shot at good plus money that if he isn't, Acasuso is a guy who can pounce on the mistakes or lazy play. Also think Acasuso like Cuevas is just comfortable on this court regardless of opponent and make for a decent play at the price at least.

**meganie** · 02-07-09, 04:53 PM

GL with that one, think you're on the right side, Robredo has shown that he has problems with big/good servers atm.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-07-09, 06:15 PM

Acasuso had the first set if he wanted it. Up 4-2 after breaking Robredo for a second time, he got broke and wound up losing 7-5. His 2nd serve is getting walloped. Robredo hasn't been sharp, but Acasuso appears to have a major case of the yips on serve.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-07-09, 06:44 PM

Turn around in Set 2. Acasuso serving well, Robredo crumbling on 2nd serve. Looks like we're going to get a 3rd set at least!

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-07-09, 07:28 PM

Acasuso wins in 3!

Updated Record: 16-17 (-0.38)

**MexicanStallion** · 02-07-09, 08:14 PM

Great hit! I owe you big. You def helped salvage a losing day for me. Keep up the good work

**single shaker** · 02-08-09, 12:09 AM

yeah thanks bro you were convincing enough for me not to play robredo, money not lost are money won.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-09-09, 02:40 AM

ATP - Costa Do Sauipe: 2.9.09
*Lapentti -150 (Martin): Let's start with Martin. What shape could he possibly be in after retiring in the 3rd set tie break last week in Vina Del Mar with cramps? He's coming right back in a bad spot in my opinion. Lapentti lost to Cuevas at Vina Del Mar, which is no mark against him as Cuevas played very well again there. Lapentti for his part made the semis of this tournament last year, so he is familiar with the surface. If he plays something similar to his match against Cuevas where he served fairly well - needing a slight improvement on his 2nd serve - you'd think with Martin's fitness concerns, Lapentti is a worthwhile choice.

ATP - SAP Open, San Jose: 2.9.09
* Nieminen -200 (Serra): A little bit of a leap of faith here for me. Nieminen has not been seen since withdrawing from the Aussie Open last month with some sort of leg issue. That has been about 3 weeks, so seeing him come here hopefully means he is back at full health. If so, Nieminen looked to be off to a great start in 2009. He made the finals in Sydney, beatin Djokovic & Feliciano Lopez, not to mention taking Nalbandian to 3 sets in the final. He was also dominating Mathieu in Melbourne before withdrawing. Serra is a feisty competitor who has won 2 of 3 from the Fin, but the last meeting was some 3 years ago. If Jarkko is right health-wise, look for that lefty serve to hold up & I look for him to pick up where he left off in Australia.

ABN Ambro, Rotterdam: 2.9.09
*Clement +175 (Tursonov): At his best, Tursonov would likely wipe the court with Clement on most days. But given his current form, having lost in the opening round of the main draw in all four tournaments in 2009, I think Clement has a shot. Clement does have two matches in qualifying under his belt, which could help him get off to a quick start. Tursonov's serve has been fairly steady this season, but something seems a bit off as his percentages of service winners is down. A bigger problem has been a faulty return game that has seen him make more errors than usual. Clement will need to continue to hold his first serve to between 75-80% here to have a chance and battle Tursonov to some long points, but the feeling is if Clement can get to Tursonov early ... watch the Russian crumble.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-09-09, 05:12 PM

Awesome day. Hope everyone faded me.

**single shaker** · 02-09-09, 05:31 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Awesome day. Hope everyone faded me.

Sh*t happens, we all have days like that, I did not play any of the games you suggested, goes back to stay away from first round matches as much as you can. g/l to you bro!

**meganie** · 02-09-09, 05:35 PM

Originally posted by single shaker

Sh*t happens, we all have days like that, I did not play any of the games you suggested, goes back to stay away from first round matches as much as you can. g/l to you bro!

Can't agree here. Imo it's easier to find first/second round matches with value.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-09-09, 11:09 PM

SAP Open - San Jose (2.09.09)
*Muller -110: Liking the lefty against Nishikori. Nishikori only 4-5 against lefties & lost to lefty Melzer in Australia. Let's see if I get bageled!

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-10-09, 01:34 AM

Bagel, bagel, bagel I suck monster ass. Bagel, bagel, bagel. Why did I bother.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-10-09, 01:47 AM

ATP - Brasil Open (2.10.09)
*Capdeville -130 (Dabul): Gotta get right back on the horse and this is one I like the most for Tuesday. Capdeville has some good clay court form in 2009, winning in San Paulo & then showing decently in Chile last week. Losing last week to Cuevas isn't a strike in my book as Cuevas really likes the Vina Del Mar tournament. He's won both head-2-head match-ups fairly comfortably in Brazil. So why not do it a third time at a decent price. This one is for two units to either bury me or start digging out from Monday's blood letting.

**Spanks** · 02-10-09, 11:34 AM

Capdeville has an ab injury...he may retire if not lose...

**single shaker** · 02-10-09, 11:44 AM

Originally posted by Spanks

Capdeville has an ab injury...he may retire if not lose...

there are something going on with that game, majority of people are on capdeville but line moved from +129 to +108 on dabul, probably some insight info there.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-10-09, 12:37 PM

Where are you guys seeing that line movement? I see Pinnacle lower, but the other books I have show no significant movement. Got any proof for this injury? I can probably pull my wager still.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-10-09, 12:48 PM

Well ****. I don't find any info on injuries & only see the change at Pinnacle down to -115 for Capdeville. Every other place I look has about -130. Guess, I'm just gonna go ahead and get raped her if the injury is true.

**jayc88** · 02-10-09, 12:53 PM

i'm on capdeville myself at -150, got it when the line was released,
sucks that the line went down to -114, but i think he'll get the win if he is healty

**"Sic"** · 02-10-09, 12:54 PM

down to +100 at Greek

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-10-09, 12:56 PM

With my luck, he's hurt but enough of a hard ass to play & lose.