Thnx yea i am scared now i wanted to go against him next round i thought it was going to be an ugly match full of breaks but he proved me wrong, we will see....
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I'm just tracking picks at this point. Taking some time off until I feel like I have a feel for this again. Right now, I couldn't pick a winner if you spotted me the outcome of the match.
1.15.09
Ferrer -140(Querrey): Ferrer has always done well at the Auckland event (13-3). Should be fresher without having to play yesterday.
Nalbandian -180(Gasquet): Right on the threshold of what I would play for a singles match, but the head-2-head dictates Nalbandian as the play. 6-0 vs. Gasquet. Gasquet has been playing well, but I'll take Nalbandian for the mental block.Comment -
Man, the Ferrer loss was pure bad luck. Threw away two leads in the third, was serving for the match at 5-3 and had two match points at 6-5.Last edited by meganie; 01-15-09, 08:28 PM.Comment -
Hey at least I'm still perfect! 0-6.Comment -
come on EP ... get back into it.
S Wawrinka today ... theres LOTS of value on this play.Comment -
1-7
Fat Dave gives me win #1.
Looking at the men's draw this morning for the Aussie Open. I should have my futures picks tonight. Not sure if I'm gonna bother with the ladies or not.Comment -
AUSTRALIAN OPEN FUTURES
(Note that these are my picks to make it to the Round of 16 - I'm going to dissect them further for futures plays)
1. NADAL BRACKET
*Nadal: Rafa will have some tests here potentially with Tursonov or Haas, but he should be better than both.
*F.Gonzalez: This looks like Gonzalez or Gasquet as I just don't see Hewitt getting past Gonzo. Gonzo has good head-2-head numbers vs. Gasquet and has done better at this tourney.
*Monfils: He'll be a sheik dark horse pick by many. He'll face a solid Mikail Youzhny, but Monfils - if fully fit - should run the Russian off the court. Almagro or Golubev should post less resistance after.
*Ancic: He'll probably battle Giles Simon for this spot and I was not impressed with Simon against Gasquet earlier in the week. Ancic meanwhile has looked steady and hasn't done poorly in Australia previously.
2. MURRAY BRACKET
*Murray: Murray will face Melzer, but with his current form, that should be little trouble.
*Stepanek: He's done well in Australia and his main competition to move to this point figures to be Verdasco who he has solid career #s against.
*Blake: Oh yes. James Blake. He's not started well in 2009, but he's amped it up for the Australian in the past. He shouldn't have trouble with whatever qualifier he faces in Round 1. Gulbis or Andreev will be his likely foe. He owns Andreev, so he should hope for that one. IF Gulbis pulls off the upset, don't be surprised to see him potentially steal this spot from Blake.
*Tsonga: No real tests. He's got too much power for Schuettler. Main issue is his back. If he goes down to injury or is less than 100%. This whole part of the bracket opens up.
3. DJOKOVIC BRACKET
*Roddick: I almost see Roddick as a default guy to get to this point. His part of these first two rounds is full of talent with Juan Carlos Ferrero, Kohlschreiber and Querrey. However, Kohlschreiber has a shoulder issue, so that could mean JCF gets past him. Querrey has looked good to start 2009, but Ferrero has beaten him both times they met (2008). Still, Querrey will have loads of confidence especially if he stuns or plays Del Potro well. Look for an all-American 3rd round, but Roddick moves on.
*Nalbandian: Salivating at a possible Nalbandian-Robredomatch. The two teamed up here in 2006 with Nalby winning in 4. The Argentine holds a 4-2 career record against the Spaniard and has won 4 of the last 5. Nalbandian is in better form to start and I expect that to continue.
*Baghdatis: Soderling vs. Baghdatis in Round 1 is a treat here. Soderling has won 3 of 4, all on hard courts. I hate to pick against Marcos who made the final here in 2006. His health perhaps is better now than it was late in 2008. Soderling hasn't done dick in Australia. So look for the warrior from Cyprus to win one. That sets up a meeting with Mardy Fish. Just a gut feeling that Marcos might make a run here early. Fish does seem to be content with f-ing his hot wife.
*Djokovic: I'm truly not a fan of the Serb, but Paul-Henri Mathieu is really all that stands in his way here. Djokovic killed him last week and should do the same here.
4. FEDERER BRACKET
*Federer: Should be interesting for Roger in this tourney as more eyes will be on him to see if this is the beginning of a downturn in his career or not. Safin could post a risk in Round 2, but Federer shouldn't be pestered that much if Safin even makes it through healthy.
*Wawrinka: Be it Berdych or Ginepri who might make it through, look for Wawrinka to take care of either. Both the American & the Berd Man are not in great form to start 2009. Wawrinka had two nice wins over Baghdatis & F.Gonzalez early this season.
*Cilic: This should come down to Cilic vs. Ferrer and while Ferrer does have a good track record down under, Cilic seems to have the confidence here in 2009. He won in Chennai and then got wins over Verdasco & Moya to follow that up. Ferrer struggled with Gicquel & lost to Querrey. He could "turn it on" - but perhaps the young blood gets it done.
*Del Potro: Everyone knows he's coming and is going to be a Top 5 player by year's end, perhaps with a chance to break out as a big time star if one of the Top 4 drops off some. If F.Lopez gets past Muller, he'll pose a test for Del Potro - but look for him to continue his solid play to start 2009 and work a win.Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 01-16-09, 06:42 PM.Comment -
"SWEET 16" BREAKDOWN
Nadal vs. F.Gonzalez: Gonzalez actually beat Nadal at the Australian Open in 2007. Since then, Nadal has won three straight head-2-head. Last year's semifinals trip was Nadal's best Aussie Open output. Gonzalez can win on his best day and an off-day for Nadal, but I expect Rafa to look to start 2009 off with a bang with his #1 status in contention already with the loss to Monfils.
Monfils vs. Ancic: Ancic still appears to be waiting for that break out moment on hard courts. He had a great run here last year before losing to Roddick in 5 sets in Round 4. Monfils main opposition would seem to be himself. He'll have the benefit of a draw that won't see him battle too many runners who will make him work extra hard outside of Youzhny. I think either winner here would post a legit threat to Nadal and I am going away from most, Ancic to advance in a great match.
Murray vs. Stepanek: Murray has never been troubled by Stepanek and I think that will still be the case here.
Blake vs. Tsonga: Tsonga won their only meeting which came last year in Paris. Straight sets, fairly easy. Blake really shut down last year after his early exit in the US Open. As I said earlier, he could lose before this round to Gulbis if he advances. Then again Blake also wasn't hot to start 2008 and made the quarters. Tsonga's back is a worry here, so this part of the draw could really get open if Tsonga withdraws or isn't 100%. For that reason alone, I'm saying Blake or Gulbis is the surprise quarterfinalist here.Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 01-16-09, 06:12 PM.Comment -
Roddick vs. Nalbandian: These two haven't met since 2006 and the head-2-head is 3-3. In the past 3 years, both guys have put together one deep run in Australia and both are off to good starts in 2009. I go Nalbandian here narrowly just because an off-serving day by Roddick at any point and he might not even be this far.
Baghdatis vs. Djokovic: The Serb leads the head-2-head 2-0, including the 2007 Wimbledon classic 5 setter. We all know this was Djokovic's break out tourney in 2008. Still, his loss to Niemenen and Gulbis already this year + the way he ended 2008 still mark him as a fade for me. His interest in tennis/spirit just doesn't seem right. Baghdatis meanwhile is happy to be healthy (if indeed he is). When he's healthy, he's a danger to all in majors. I'm gonna peep an upset here. Maybe it's too much hate on my part for Djokovic, but he still has to prove it to me.
Federer vs. Wawrinka: All Swiss potential here. Despite Federer's questions, he's still been a semifinalist here at the least for five years. Wawrinka still isn't in his class.
Del Potro vs. Cilic: Outside of Andy Murray, Del Potro might be the next biggest story in tennis after his break out 2008 season. Regardless of whether Cilic is here or Ferrer or whomever, Del Potro seems poised for a quarterfinal appearance. Since gaining the quarters at the US Open, Del Potro has been steady. 2009 should see him continue to rise.Comment -
ELITE 8 + FINAL 4 + CHAMPIONSHIP
1. NADAL
2. MURRAY
3. NALBANDIAN
4. FEDERER
The Del Potro/Federer potential quarterfinal match I hard a hard time not going for Del Potro, but he has yet to prove he can even stay close to Roger and until Roger doesn't make a semi at a major, you almost HAVE TO pick him to get there. The men's final almost always produces one surprise entry who isn't a top 4 seed.
2008: Tsonga (Unseeded)
2007: Fernando Gonzalez (#10)
2006: Marcos Baghdatis (Unseeded)
2004: Safin (Unseeded)
2003: Schuettler (#31)
2002: (#9) Johansson vs. (#16) Safin
With all that in mind, right now. I lean to Andy Murray as one of the futures plays and David Nalbandian as the suprise guy on the other side. Also considering Cilic or Baghdatis as the super dark horse play. Gonna think about it through tomorrow and post my final futures plays. Love to hear any thoughts.Comment -
1 Unit: Murray +250
1/2 Unit: Nalbandian +1200
1/2 Unit: Federer +240
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Aussie Open: Round 1
*Delic +110(Dent) - Delic showed well in qualifying and has three matches on the surface already under his belt as a result. He's made the 2nd round here in three straight tries.
*Querrey +110(Kohlschreiber) - Kohlschreiber still has the shoulder issue & Querrey is coming in off a strong tourney in Auckland. He's won the only head-2-head back at the 2006 US Open. Querrey has knocked off a seeded player in both his Australian Open appearances. Kohlschreiber slipped in as seed #32.
*Nieminen -135(Mathieu) - Niemenen comes in hot with a finals run in Sydney. He may have shown better in the final against Nalbandian, but likely was gassed in the 3rd after winning an epic tie break in the 2nd. He KO'ed Djokovic in that tourney & has beaten F.Lopez & Baghdatis already in 2009. Mathieu has the game any day to win, but guts seem to be an issue. He had a good run in Brisbane, but was walloped by Verdasco in the semis. Djokovic crushed him in Sydney in straights. Both players did well here in 2008, but go with Nieminen who has beaten the French F-er twice in two meetings.
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Aussie Open: Round 1
*Granollers-Pujol -140(Gabashvilli) - Pujol has the much better form leading into this one as he played very well in Chennai to start off the year. He made the semis there, losing to Cilic. He also fought Gulbis to 3 sets last week in Auckland. Gabahsvilli won a handful of qualiying matches in Brisbane before losing in straights to Paul-Henri Mathieu and then got crushed by Malisse in qualifying in Sydney. Neither lights it up on the hard surface, but Pujol's recent play suggests he will handle it better.
*Stakhovsky -110 (Clement) - Stakhovsky got his feet wet in Doha in 2009 with a couple wins over Rochus & Peya before losing to Murray. Clement won one & loss one there as well (Roddick), then flopped in the qualis in Sydney in Round 1. Clement has been a first round loser in 4 of his last 5 trips to the Australian Open. Stakhovsky is getting his first crack at the main draw after missing in the qualis in three tries. Go with the hungrier youngster here.Comment -
good luck...like the picks...Comment -
Aussie Open Round 1 Record: 2-2
(Nieminen match cancelled)
Dead even on units. Better than negative I suppose! Tough 5 set loss for Stakhovsky yesterday. Looked like he was in control up 2-1 then he just went flat. Still perusing Round 2 picks for potential. GL fellas.Comment -
Good Luck EP with your plays today !Comment -
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Good luck with your picks, lord knows you'll need it.
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Aussie Open Round 2
*Baghdatis +130 (Soderling): This is one I marked in my preview as the match to watch here early on. Baghdatis is a dangerous player when healthy & motivated. Soderling does own a 3-1 head-2-head record, but I'm going against Soderling's Australian Open career here. This is his 5th Aussie Open and he's only made it to this point once before, bowing in Round 2 to a wildcard player back in 2004. Baghdatis' stamina is going to be an issue pointed out by many & his health in general. But I think he's shown enough in limited play in 2009 to take a shot here, beating Cilic (one I mark as a solid win). He's made some surprising runs here in Melbourne before and this could be another. The Cypriot must do somewhat better on his first serve percentage tonight to get the win as he did not do all that well against Benneteau in that department, but that's never been his forte. This should be a 4-5 setter with lots of momentum swings. I think the crowd will back Marcos if he gets them in his corner with solid play.Comment -
GL with it. Could be an interesting match to watch.
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Aussie Open Round 2
*Ancic -145(Karlovic): There's going to be some big serving in this one, but I definitely side with Ancic here. Karlovic leads the head-2-head, but those match-ups were ages ago. Karlovic we all know is a one dimensional beast. If his serve is on, you're going to get some tie breakers and he can prevail if his opponent becomes overwhelmed. Ancic though combines the big serve with some decent return skills. Ancic has also made it to Round 3 at the Australian in all 5 tries, while Karlovic got his first trip that far in 2008. I think Karlovic might be the pick if this was a best of 3 set tournament, but at a Grand Slam where it's best of 5 - keeping that serve good enough as your only weapon to win 3 sets to advance is tougher. That's backed up with Karlovic just 30-32 at Grand Slams and Ancic at 47-22, including a 36-14 record in his last 50 matches.
Looking around for others, but at the prices I like to play - not seeing much again today. So this might be the only play.
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Big time agreement on Ancic, already on him (-133 at partouche). He outperforms at slams, Karlovic underperforms. Also, Ancic has ground out so many 5 set winners I've witnessed.
Aside from that, Karlovic's form has been wobbly recently.Comment -
Man, you guys should've taken him when he opened. He was about even, surprised to see the line move so much.
Best of luck, you both.
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I don't usually have time to cap anything until the morning after the prices have been up for awhile. It's an okay price.Comment -
Good luck EP36.Comment -
*Czink +160 (Zheng): Taking a shot with the Hungarian here. Czink quietly has played fairly well to start off 2009. She made it to the quarters of the Hobart International & Round of 16 in Brisbane. She was able to get alot of match play in due to qualifying in both those tourneys. She pounded a decent player in Cirstea in straights in her opener her, especially pouncing on her 2nd serve (89% of the points won). Zheng cruised as well in the 1st round, but did struggle some with that 2nd serve. Zheng won her first match at the Australian this year in six tries, while Czink has made it this far just once as well. Zheng certainly can be tough on any given day, but if Czink can hold her serve well enough and Zheng's is off - an upset is certainly a possiblity. Czink has won 2 of their 3 previous encounters - although all are at least 3 years removed, but her lefty stroke might be part of the reason why she's had the upper hand.Comment -
Aussie Open: Round 3
* Cilic -160 (Ferrer): The price is a little iffy here, but the play is correct in my book. Ferrer still is trying to find his game to start 2009. Although he did win in straights in Round 2, his Round 1 form should be more worrying when he went to 5 sets. Cilic has started 2009 strongly with the Chennai Title and got through Round 1 & 2 relatively unscathed in 4 sets both times. His serve could well be the difference as he's been pounding out the aces. If he can avoid inconsistency on serve and continue his solid return play, Cilic looks right to get back to the Round of 16 here in Melbourne for the second straight year.
*Robredo -325 (Lu): I don't enjoy paying big prices, but this one seems too solid to pass. Robredo has silently dominated his first two rounds here in Melbourne. His serve has been superb and as always, the Spaniard has returned the ball well. His opponent, Lu, scored the upset of #10 David Nalbandian in Round 2. Watching this one though, you got the sense it was more of what Nalbandian did to himself than Lu elevating his game. Robredo's steady game should be much better suited to take out Lu than Nalbandian's mental midgetry. Lu could steal a set, but Robredo should be too crafty and move on.
*Wawrinka +130 (Berdych): This could be a great 5 setter in the making between these two. Wawrinka showed better in Round 2 after struggling in the opener. Berdych has dominated Ginepri & Dabul, winning in straights. Berdych is seeking a third straight 4th round trip in Australia while Wawrinka can earn his best result with a win today. Wawrinka has a very steady, but not spectacular game. He did beat Fernando Gonzalez & Marcos Baghdatis in Kooyong, so his confidence should be solid here. Berdych came in with little form, so he perhaps has found his in Melbourne. The key in looking back at the head-2-head between the two (3-2 favoring Berdych) is that Wawrinka has to be able to return Berdych's serve to win. Berdych's serve has been steady and at times dominant early, but I'm favoring the Swiss here as I still question the consistency of Berdych who is in the mold of an Andy Roddick - when his serve is on - he's great, but when it's not, he can be beaten by anyone in the Top 100.
Aussie Open Record: 4-3 (+1.30)
Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 01-22-09, 12:41 PM.Comment -
With you on Cilic.
Wawrinka-Berdych could be an epic five-setter, with tons of unforced errors and winners.
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Yeah I might try and find the Cilic-Ferrer & Wawrinka-Berdych matches online later. The TV matches on ESPN are gonna be dull. Djokovic vs. Delic for the early one. Delic is gonna be gassed I have a feeling after the two five setters. Although nothing would make me more happy than to see Novak bounced. I just don't like him & his attitude from the end of last season.Comment -
Aussie Open: Round 3
* Ancic +160: Sticking to my pre-tourney projection here and at a pretty good price, I think. Ancic is coming off a tough 5 setter against Karlovic, but he did turn it on in the last 2 sets to advance. His serve continues to be a solid weapon with his first serve percentage averaging in the mid 60s. Ancic has only been past this round once before at Melbourne, so this is a big test. For Simon, it's been an easier road in the first two rounds. He did however have trouble with the lanky Aussie Guccione in the last round for a set. Ancic brings that same height to the match, but with a lot more athleticism. He won the only career match-up between the two last March at Indian Wells. Ancic did not have an overwhelming serve in that one, but he did pounce on a multitidue of break chances given by Simon. Simon has offered up several break chances here in Melbourne, but has yet to run into someone who can take advantage. Ancic, I believe is that guy. If Super Mario has his serve consistent and can win at least 50% of the breaks offered, I think he moves on.
I've got a couple others, I'm looking at hard. If I pull the trigger, I'll jot them down on here in a little bit.
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*Gonzalez -130 (Gasquet): I mistakenly thought these two had met before, but this will indeed be their first clash. Gonzo looks to be turning it up a notch after the knock down, drag out with Hewitt in the opener. He easily beat Canas and his serve is a solid as ever after a bit of an iffy first round performance. He only offered Canas one break chance. Gasquet has all the ability in the world and beat an overmatched Isotomin in Round 2. His Round 1 match though might be a bit more concerning when he was nearly down 2 sets to nothing against a guy who gave out break chances like ice cream. Gasquet has nice scalp of Tsonga early on in 2009, but otherwise has faltered against Top 20 players and those just outside, losing to Nalbandian in straights in Sydney and a relatively easy 3 setter to Stepanek in Brisbane. Gasquet's outs in the last two years in Melbourne spell the recipe for his defeat, when his serve can be returned, he gets beat. If Gonzo's serve is humming and he finds a way to win about 40% on return, this match is his.Comment -
EP ... where do you stand in this Aussie OPen ... are you up or down.
GL with your plays today ... I have a pretty big card .. 6 plays. First 3 WTA plays.Comment -
6-4 (+2.30 units) for the Australian Open
Still alive with a full unit on Murray for the futures & 1/2 unit on Federer. Nalbandian dumped me for a half unit already. So technically, I guess I am at +1.80 if you count the busted future.
I finally feel like I have a bit of a "feel" for tennis. I have to remember next year, don't even F with betting tennis until the Australian Open. I got down on myself big time by betting on those early tourneys. Can't really find edges in the game when players have no form to rely on. Started 0-6, 7-4 since then. Still a crap ass record, but I had a big hole to dig out of.Comment -
Good to see ur doing well EP.
Im down a bit ... but theres still a lot to go in this ... I should be up at the end.
All my future props are still alive, Fed, Murray and Del Potro ... hopefully one of the 3 cashes.Comment
