EP36's ACES

**meganie** · 01-12-09, 07:12 PM

Great to see you around here again. GL and lets get'em all.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-13-09, 12:09 AM

Ah the stinging pain of tennis. Nice to have you back. F-ing Fish. Up a break in the 3rd. He gives it back and then serves like a middle schooler on his first serve when Tipsarevic had no answer for him when he actually got his first serve in. Deep breath. I hate losing.

**Spanks** · 01-13-09, 01:12 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Ah the stinging pain of tennis. Nice to have you back. F-ing Fish. Up a break in the 3rd. He gives it back and then serves like a middle schooler on his first serve when Tipsarevic had no answer for him when he actually got his first serve in. Deep breath. I hate losing.

I had Tipsy and I thought Fish had it wrapped up and he just choked in the end...too much sex with his Deal or no Deal model wife...

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-13-09, 10:10 AM

Tursonov loses too. Yee haw. 0-2.

**Shark79** · 01-13-09, 10:39 AM

Its the beginning of a new year EP.

You will warm up soon. GL to ya bud!

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-13-09, 03:10 PM

1.13.09

[ATP Heineken Open - Auckland]
Muller EVEN(Querrey)
Battle of big servers here in this one. Querrey was pretty average in beating a wild card entry in the opening round. Muller meanwhile has had his serve kicking up double figure aces through the qualis & into the first round against Serra. He'll need to improve his 1st serve % a tad here (closer to 60% than mid 50s) and continue to hold serve. This seems like a match destined for a tie break or two. I'll say Muller's extra time on this court pays off.

**meganie** · 01-13-09, 04:06 PM

Wow, Fish's loss was very unlucky, but somehow typical for him. What the heck did Fish do with his serving, 40% first serves, are you kidding me?

GL with Muller.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-13-09, 05:38 PM

Muller doing the job on serve in set 1 at least. Wish Fish woulda done the same! I think maybe people were right about Fish banging his new hot wife too much.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-13-09, 06:48 PM

Another oustanding 3rd set loss. Tied at 4, chokes on his own serve.

Gilles Muller

0-3 (-3.20 units)

**Shark79** · 01-13-09, 07:03 PM

EP

I took Muller this AM at +108

Yes ... talk about a choke job ... what a douchebag.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-13-09, 08:55 PM

Yeah. Tennis is the same every year, just was hoping for a quicker start with the chokes coming after winning a few.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-14-09, 12:06 AM

[ATP - Sydney]
Simon +105 (Gasquet)
Got in on this late because I wavered on it all day. Gasquet has won all three career meetings, but none have come since Simon really broke out late in 2008. Gasquet was pretty solid against Tursonov in Round 1, but his return game did have some holes. For Simon, this is his 1st competition since a Round Robin tourney where he won two matches and lost one. Simon was certainly the big surprise down the stretch in 2008, scalping Federer twice & Nadal once. It's really anyone's guess as to whether Simon is going to keep that sort of play alive in 2009 or slip back to where he was to start 2008. I'll take the slightly better price for the more mental strong player and probably go to 0-4. War Tennis!

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-14-09, 01:51 AM

Simon says I suck. Pretty sure I can serve as bad as he has. Not gonna wait.

0-4 (-4.20)

**Shark79** · 01-14-09, 08:25 AM

If anyone has faded ... they should be up 4-0

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-14-09, 10:12 AM

They should continue to do so until I actually pick a winner. I'm just going gut instinct now on my next picks. I would have at least been .500 on the ones I liked yesterday, but chose not to make. We'll see how this does.

**meganie** · 01-14-09, 10:30 AM

Honestly, I don't see one capper here who is up big/huge, too many surprises right now imo (e.g. who thought that Ancic would sweep Robredo...or that Serra would beat Ferrero and Melzer in the same tournament). I believe, when everyone is playing 100% at the AO, things should get easier. I definitely find it harder than at the end of last year, during the Masters.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-14-09, 11:30 AM

I actually had Ancic down as one to play, but talked myself out of it after reading so many on Robredo, etc. Gotta start just going with the gut. I think early season tennis is one of the most difficult things to cap because you don't have any form to rely on. It's purely past performances.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-14-09, 11:39 AM

First gut pick of the day.

1.14.09

ATP - Auckland
Almagro -110
Querrey was fortunate to advance yesterday when Gilles Muller forgot how to serve late in the match and folded. Almagro was solid, especially in the return game. That's where I see a definitive edge. If the serves are equal, Almagro is showing that his clay court movement is translating some to the hard courts since the US Open last year. He needs to amp up his 1st serve percentage to win here.

**meganie** · 01-14-09, 11:44 AM

I like it a lot, but where do you get these odds? They're terrible, pinnacle currently has him at +123, that's more than 30c difference. Maybe your bookie changes them slower.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-14-09, 12:28 PM

It was at Bookmaker. Shoot. I'll wait awhile if those are odds I can get closer to. Anything better than EVEN is always nice.

**Shark79** · 01-14-09, 03:08 PM

GL man ... looks fuzzy to me ... but nevertheless a pick.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-14-09, 03:12 PM

Alright. Locked & loaded now.

Almagro +115

**Shark79** · 01-14-09, 04:26 PM

so it goes from -110 to +115 .... same book?

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-14-09, 04:49 PM

Yep. After Meganie's post, I went and double checked and the price was already at EVEN from -110. Bookmaker's lines have alot of retarded movement on them. I've seen basketball totals move 3 full points in the last hour when other books have little movement.

**meganie** · 01-14-09, 04:57 PM

Originally posted by Shark79

so it goes from -110 to +115 .... same book?

It's moved on a lot at other books too, Almagro started at Pinny at about even and moved till +124 or so (Moved back though). Same thing with Ferrer. Happens on a lot of matches, really nothing special. Only exception was Llodra match last year when he went from about -150 to +400 or so. That was really suspicious.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-14-09, 05:23 PM

Looks like I don't have to wait long to be F-ed today. Broken in the 1st game. Outstanding.

**meganie** · 01-14-09, 05:35 PM

Over 70% first serves for Querrey. He won't keep that pace. Also Almagro plays better than yesterday. I wouldn't count this match over.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-14-09, 05:42 PM

Just pessimistic because of my early luck. Almagro dropped a set yesterday too I know before coming back. Querrey will kill him though if his serve stays constant.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-14-09, 05:48 PM

Maybe Almagro will quit.

**meganie** · 01-14-09, 05:49 PM

Almagro is a head case:
If you give him 10 difficult shots, he'll make 6-7 of them.
If you give him 10 easy smashes or volleys, he'll probably makes 3-4 of them.
If you let him try his drop shot, he makes about 0 of 10.

Just gifted Querrey the first set.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-14-09, 06:09 PM

Broken again in the 2nd. He's toast. Perfect 0-5. Like Serena Williams tonight. Probably not playing it, so I'm sure she wins. I may just sit it out for awhile, obviously I have no feel for this whatsoever.

**meganie** · 01-14-09, 06:11 PM

Well, since I was on Almagro too, you're at least not alone. Another night with a loss to start.
I swear, Almagro is on my black list, no fight, no spirit, no composure, no serve, no nothing but errors.

Well, it's now officially over. And the award for the most effortless match of the tournament goes to...Nicolas Almagro.

**Tennispro** · 01-14-09, 06:20 PM

Just back him up on clay there he shines.
GL on other plays

**meganie** · 01-14-09, 06:26 PM

Congrats tennispro, Querrey's serve looked pretty sharp today.