CrazyLou's 2009 Tennis Picks Thread

**Shark79** · 01-20-09, 11:10 AM

I agree on that Safin pick ... Im trying to keep under the -300 for favs, so aint taking him. LT seems to be on the other side of that pick. Good Luck to both!

The rest seem to have value. Hope you have a great Tuesday Lou.

Hows your Aussie numbers doing???

**SBR Lou** · 01-20-09, 11:12 AM

Originally posted by Shark79

I agree on that Safin pick ... Im trying to keep under the -300 for favs, so aint taking him. LT seems to be on the other side of that pick. Good Luck to both!

The rest seem to have value. Hope you have a great Tuesday Lou.

Hows your Aussie numbers doing???

I will update after Ferrer plays, but if he wins and I have a good day today I'll be in the positive. Otherwise I'll be down like 6 units.

**Shark79** · 01-20-09, 11:13 AM

Danm ... well theres still lots of games to get those 6 units back ... good luck the rest of the way

**SBR Lou** · 01-20-09, 11:13 AM

Originally posted by CrazyLou

Tuesday January 20th.

The following 3 plays are fades of LT Profits picks.

M Safin -320
to win 2

N. Petrova -220
to win 1

R. Soderling -150
to win 1
My regular plays:

Bartoli -176
to win 4 units

S. Errani -186
To win 2 units

A. Chakvetadze -156
to win 1 unit

M. Johansson +477
to win 4 units

Bump for page 4.

**SBR Lou** · 01-21-09, 10:23 AM

Originally posted by crazylou

tuesday january 20th.

the following 3 plays are fades of lt profits picks.

m safin -320 win
to win 2

n. Petrova -220 win
to win 1

r. Soderling -150 loss
to win 1
my regular plays:

bartoli -176 win
to win 4 units

s. Errani -186 win
to win 2 units

a. Chakvetadze -156 loss
to win 1 unit

m. Johansson +477 loss
to win 4 units

Originally posted by crazylou

d. Ferrer -160 win
vs d. Hrbaty

risking 1.6 to win 1 units

5-3 +6.09

ytd 19-16-1 +3.25

Corrections: F Verdsaco defeated F Gonzalez Jan 14th. I couldn't find the score for a week so assumed it was cancelled, but tennisinsight confirmed this was indeed a victory so it's been marked a win.

I have imported all my plays to a spreadsheet so I can more easily track forum plays. Anyone that would like to see the text of my spreadsheet is more than welcome to.

**Shark79** · 01-21-09, 10:57 AM

U cant go wrong if your 50/50 in plays and up on units. Nice going Lou!

**SBR Lou** · 01-21-09, 02:53 PM

J. Zheng -172
1.72 to win 1 units

A. Mauresmo -550
5.50 to win 1 units

M. Bartoli -214
6.42 to win 3 units

J. Dokic +630
.50 to win 3.15 units

A. Ivanovic -658
6.58 to win 1 units

A. Cornet -173
3.46 to win 2 units

ytd 19-16-1 +3.25

**ChuteBoxe** · 01-21-09, 02:54 PM

Good luck Lou-Dog.

**SBR Lou** · 01-21-09, 03:37 PM

Originally posted by ChuteBoxe

Good luck Lou-Dog.

Thanks Chute, good luck to you today too.

**Stacocakes** · 01-22-09, 03:00 AM

Crazy you got Ana at -658...its -500 right now....that can't be good
Either she is injured and someone knows OR the people gambling have zero faith in Ana as a big favorite. Very surprised the line moved this much

**SBR Lou** · 01-22-09, 11:14 AM

Originally posted by Stacocakes

Crazy you got Ana at -658...its -500 right now....that can't be good
Either she is injured and someone knows OR the people gambling have zero faith in Ana as a big favorite. Very surprised the line moved this much

She will be fine. She is the best player in this tournament, anytime she decides to turn on the jets, all they'll see of her is her tail.

**Shark79** · 01-22-09, 11:24 AM

Crazy ... what are your stats for the tourney?

GL today pal !

**l7ustin** · 01-22-09, 11:25 AM

cilic today lou

cilic

**SBR Lou** · 01-23-09, 12:36 AM

Originally posted by CrazyLou

J. Zheng -172
1.72 to win 1 units

A. Mauresmo -550
5.50 to win 1 units

M. Bartoli -214
6.42 to win 3 units

J. Dokic +630
.50 to win 3.15 units

A. Ivanovic -658
6.58 to win 1 units

A. Cornet -173
3.46 to win 2 units

Adding

A. Ivanovic
-386 Risking 11.58 to win 3 units.

**Stacocakes** · 01-23-09, 03:35 AM

I don't think I would be able to sleep if I had 18 units on a match haha

**pat venditto** · 01-23-09, 04:56 AM

[ ] good money management

**diogee** · 01-23-09, 05:14 AM

Good luck Lou...especially on that big one. Looks like one hell of a line move.

**Shark79** · 01-23-09, 08:25 AM

Sorry to see that Ivanovic go south.

She is just focused on her bf .... nothing else ... a 19 yr old just defeated her with such easy tennis.

Ivanovic is a choker.

**daggerkobe** · 01-23-09, 08:29 AM

wow, that bitch cost him 19 units (including futures).

**meganie** · 01-23-09, 08:30 AM

Ouch, tough Ivanovic loss. WTF is wrong with this girl? Thought she's turned it around in Linz and then...such things.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-23-09, 10:09 AM

Lou killed her last year. That's what's wrong. She was his downfall at a bigger price than today at the US Open (I think). Ever since, her game has been F-ed. Blame Lou.

**Slim** · 01-23-09, 10:15 AM

Originally posted by pat venditto

[ ] good money management

Great actually.

**AgainstAllOdds** · 01-23-09, 12:53 PM

Crazyl,

I know your hope was to become a succsessful tennis capper. After your big loss, I hope you dont keep posting picks. Noone wants to seem someone bury themselves. In some of your picks you say "Fading LT Profits" which is kind of ironic to say the least.

Anyway, Please stop the madness before people start putting you up there with the likes of Patty Venditto and Dac.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-23-09, 01:02 PM

Dude lost one big wager on a big favorite & you guys act like this is the first time it's ever happened. Lou knows the risks of taking those big faves. There's nothing wrong with it if that's your game, you just have to know there are gonna be times like this when you get buried. The real key to me is knowing what round to stop backing big favorites in Grand Slams. I think we're in that territory in the Aussie Open where you have to be real careful about who you take. I mean even someone safer like Venus lost early at a bigger price. Personally, I don't back favorites much over -175 for the most part, but that's my game. Lighten up on the Lou.

Backing them in smaller tourneys is suicide.

**AgainstAllOdds** · 01-23-09, 01:06 PM

Do you think hes a good tennis capper? Do you think he will be up or down units by the end of the season? How many units does he have to get DOWN in order for someone to say hes horrible and should stop?

**SBR Lou** · 01-23-09, 01:06 PM

Originally posted by AgainstAllOdds

Crazyl,

I know your hope was to become a succsessful tennis capper. After your big loss, I hope you dont keep posting picks. Noone wants to seem someone bury themselves. In some of your picks you say "Fading LT Profits" which is kind of ironic to say the least.

Anyway, Please stop the madness before people start putting you up there with the likes of Patty Venditto and Dac.

Hi AgainstAllOdds,

Last night was 5-1 but the loser stung more than the winners. In fact I've capped well down this last stretch hitting around 70% but ultimately instead of being up close to ten units, Ivanovic decided to sink my units.

That's the nature of the beast, I'm certainly happy to discuss tennis with fellow cappers and bounce ideas off one another, in being light-hearted I do trade jabs with LT Profits who is a buddy of mine, but at the end of the day my hope is we all emerge from this season as better, more battle tested tennis handicappers.

**SBR Lou** · 01-23-09, 01:13 PM

Originally posted by crazylou

m. johanss +477
risking 0.84 to win 4

j. Zheng -172
1.72 to win 1 units

a. Mauresmo -550
5.50 to win 1 units

m. Bartoli -214
6.42 to win 3 units

j. Dokic +630
.50 to win 3.15 units

a. Ivanovic -658
6.58 to win 1 units

a. Cornet -173
3.46 to win 2 units

adding

a. Ivanovic
-386 risking 11.58 to win 3 units.

5-2 -8.01

ytd 24-18-1 -5.60

**SBR Lou** · 01-23-09, 01:19 PM

F. Verdasco -160
vs Stepanek
Risking 6.4 to win 3 units

I. Andreev +225
vs James Blake
Risking 1 units to win 2.25

M. Martin Sanchez +213
vs Suarez Navarro
Risking 1 unit to win 2.13 units

V. Azarenka -330
vs Mauresmo
Risking 6.6 to win 2 units

YTD 24-18-1 -5.60

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-23-09, 01:21 PM

Originally posted by AgainstAllOdds

Do you think hes a good tennis capper? Do you think he will be up or down units by the end of the season? How many units does he have to get DOWN in order for someone to say hes horrible and should stop?

I don't know how to answer that honestly.

Lou picks a lot of big favorites, but he has picked some dog winners as well. Betting big favorites I don't think takes a lot of skill early in Grand Slams. Anyone would do that if they have the funds. It can help build your bankroll to bet later in tournaments, but like yesterday - if you bet one bad one, it can take a substantial bite out of it as well.

I think the measure of a good tennis capper comes late in tournaments, picking winners when you have matches that are difficult to predict + picking the dogs that win at any time in a tourney. You have to take into context his unit loss for yesterday coming on two bets on a big favorite. It wasn't like he went 0-18, but when you go 5-1 and lose 10 units ... that's not fun.

**Dark Horse** · 01-23-09, 01:30 PM

Originally posted by AgainstAllOdds

Do you think hes a good tennis capper? Do you think he will be up or down units by the end of the season? How many units does he have to get DOWN in order for someone to say hes horrible and should stop?

I have no idea why losing gamblers post picks. It doesn't help anybody. In this case it also reflects poorly on sbr, which has some extremely knowledgeable people behind the scenes. Only a tout would refer to himself as having picked 70% winners recently, after this fiasco.

Why can moderators still not be placed on ignore, even after SBR John agreed that this was a good idea?

**donjuan** · 01-23-09, 01:36 PM

I have no idea why losing gamblers post picks.

Self-delusion. Players talk would be a ghost town without it.

**pavyracer** · 01-23-09, 01:37 PM

I think he lost 20 units on two picks on the same player this year.

**daggerkobe** · 01-23-09, 01:38 PM

Originally posted by AgainstAllOdds

Crazyl,

I know your hope was to become a succsessful tennis capper. After your big loss, I hope you dont keep posting picks. Noone wants to seem someone bury themselves. In some of your picks you say "Fading LT Profits" which is kind of ironic to say the least.

Anyway, Please stop the madness before people start putting you up there with the likes of Patty Venditto and Dac.

What I don't understand is, people rag on VegasDave all the time because he says he doesn't bet on his own picks, yet Crazyl also said he doesn't bet but no one bashes him. He's playing with Monopoly cyberbucks which may also explain why he's so reckless risking all these units on heavy favorites.

But the worst of all, he fancies himself as a great tennis capper and also got another mod shilling for him, which is quite unethical considering some noob might believe the hype and tail his strongest picks.

Also, Dokic was +365 not +630 as he claims.

**SBR Lou** · 01-23-09, 01:48 PM

Originally posted by daggerkobe

Also, Dokic was +365 not +630 as he claims.

I'm sure someone will verify that she indeed was +630 at one point. Don't you realize that prices move? Ivanovic was -658 at one point and closed a bit over -300.

**daggerkobe** · 01-23-09, 01:51 PM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

I have no idea why losing gamblers post picks. It doesn't help anybody. In this case it also reflects poorly on sbr, which has some extremely knowledgeable people behind the scenes. Only a tout would refer to himself as having picked 70% winners recently, after this fiasco.

Why can moderators still not be placed on ignore, even after SBR John agreed that this was a good idea?

He says he's no tout but he sure acts like one. Everytime he loses, he has an excuse or spins it by saying it went to 3 sets as if that makes the loss any better. And he drops 19 units last night and says he went 5-1 hit a dog as if that changes the fact that he lost a shitload of units.

I mean I went 7-2 few days ago and would be up +20 units if I weren't a moron and took a -1350 fav also. But that's the risk I took with such a heavy fav.

Crazyl is very knowledgeable about tennis not gonna deny that but his money management stinks like dirty underwear!

He needs to stop trying to impress everyone by accumulating tons of units and just stick to providing good info and discussion.