tevari's 2013 tennis thread

[tevari]

Shit performance from Becker after winning the first set. He lacks the killer instinct that all good players have. Tuesday 1/8/12:

Gajdosova [+100]

The Aussie wildcard draws Govortsova after a first round win against Oprandi. She has won 2 of her 3 matches this season and is showing promise after a dismal year last year marked with injuries and personal issues. The type of player that troubles Gajdosova are the Ag-Rads and Wozniackis of the world ...error-less pushing machines. Govortsova is not - her game is big and she is prone to many unforced errors and mental meltdowns. Gimme Gajdosova to continue improving at even money.

YTD: 5-5 +334.22

[tevari]

Adding: Sijsling +1.5 sets [-110]

[Optional]

Adding: Sijsling +1.5 sets [-110]

What book do you use for that bet Tevari?

[tevari]

Heritage

[tevari]

Apparently I am alone with Gajdosova. Public pouring money on Govortsova - opened at +100, and she is at +120 at Heritage now. Yeesh.

[matt05man]

Tailing.

[Jrod124]

dig the Igor pick. I love that option at Heritage

[JNic]

Apparently I am alone with Gajdosova. Public pouring money on Govortsova - opened at +100, and she is at +120 at Heritage now. Yeesh.

Looking good so far

[tevari]

That was easy. Gajdosova easy 6-3 6-1. Need Sijsling to take a set off Haas for a good day.

YTD: 6-5 +$434.22

[imzdeals]

tevari what's your take on aussie open futures? I threw $100 on sloane stephens at 300/1 for sh**s and giggles. Like the way she's been playing so far. But Serena at +100 is looking more likely. I think the only way Serena doesn't take it is because of injury.

[tevari]

I don't really play futures, but Serena @ +100 is a steal. The only player who can contend with her (right now) is Azarenka, and still....there's still a large talent gap between the two. Kvitova is out of form. Don't hesitate to put a few bills on Williams to win the Aussie Open.

[gregm]

Great call tevari

[tevari]

Thanks. Too bad Sijsling getting his shit pushed in will negate that profit completely.

[EaglesPhan36]

Kvitova out of form, those are kind words. She sucks ass. Not sure where her game has gone, but she is unbackable even though she could find her game and beat about anyone. Still low confidence = early exit.

[tevari]

YTD: 6-6 +$334.22

Wednesday 1/9: Parlay- Haas & Querrey [+108] * 2 units

[tevari]

Adding: Vesnina to win 2-0 [+130]: Gajdosova has been my little cash cow early this season, but no so fast with her here. Vesnina's game is perfectly suited to force UEs from Jarmila. Her return game and movement are classes above Govortsova's, which isn't saying much, but I will fade Gajdosova here. She isn't nearly there yet.

[JNic]

Hm i was thinking about backing Levine here but at 5'9 Querrey is going to get a healthy ace count

[tevari]

Vesnina an easy 6-3 6-2 winner. Gajdosova probably head 40 unforced errors

YTD: 7-6 +454.22

[JNic]

Adding: Vesnina to win 2-0 [+130]: Gajdosova has been my little cash cow early this season, but no so fast with her here. Vesnina's game is perfectly suited to force UEs from Jarmila. Her return game and movement are classes above Govortsova's, which isn't saying much, but I will fade Gajdosova here. She isn't nearly there yet.

[tevari]

Waiting on Haas for the 2 unit parlay to cash but not staying up till 1 am to watch it.

[tevari]

Days 1 & 2 Aussie open plays:

Harrison [-145]
Bertens [-135]
Martic [+105]

BOL

[JNic]

What is your reasoning behind Harrison? The guy is playing extremely passive and everything outside of his serve is in question, not to mention Giraldo killed him in olympics so that will be hanging over him mentally. It's gonna end up with Giraldo dictating most likely, I don't trust Giraldo's form but the match isn't really on Harrison's racket in my mind.

[EaglesPhan36]

Exactly .. Harrison

[tevari]

Harrison through but Martic goes down in straight sets. Waiting on Bertens.

[EaglesPhan36]

Good job on Harrison. I can't back that mofo for anything myself. He was one serve away from probably giving up after he lost the 1st set and was down 0-40 on his serve, but he dug deep and turned it around. Still a frustrating dick head to back.

[tevari]

Not more frustrating than backing Giraldo - my personal money pit. Dude has a hot temper and his anger compounds itself to no end. Battle of 2 mugs but I felt Harrison had the bigger upside in this match. Also, it was a TI dog pile burial, as you like to say. Something like 36-9 tipped Giraldo.

[EaglesPhan36]

Ahh very nice. Had not noticed. That is part of the reason I have chosen to avoid Hewitt later. Love him in that spot, but the world is on him.

[tevari]

Agreed. Not touching that match w/ a 10 foot pole.

[tevari]

YTD: 8-10 +$189.74

Large card tonight:

2.5 unit parlay:

Nieminen, Raonic, Vinci, Stephens @ [+126]

Safarova to win 2-0 [+165]

D.Brands +2.5 sets [-110]

[tevari]

YTD; 9-12 +103.44

Saturday Aussie Open Finals:

Azarenka to win 2-0 [+155] * 2 units
Azarenka to win 2-1 [+260] * 1 unit


Li played the better semifinal match, beating Sharapova easily 6-2 6-2, using a combination of smartly placed first serves out wide on big points and a steady helping of solid groundies. She made only a handful of unforced errors, but I just can't back her in this match. Azarenka wants it more, and I think she is out to prove a point that she is number one for a reason. She tends to play UP to the moment, embracing challenging matches. She'll have to cut down on the backhand errors and stay strong on serve, but I give her the edge in nearly every department, except the 'intangibles' - Li obviously has less pressure on her and is probably carrying more momentum into the final, but to me after watching plenty of these two over the years, she isn't to be trusted in this spot.

[tevari]

Note to anyone who follows this thread: I do my WORST handicapping during slams. Don't know why, it has always been this way. Get back to me when there is some obscure atp 250 tournament in Azerbaijan or something.

[tevari]

YTD 10-13 +$163.44

1/28: Radwanska +270
Paris Qualifying: Garcia +165

[Sam_Hawkins]

On garcia as well! Let's cash it!

[tevari]

Thread resurrection time!

YTD: 11-14 +178.44

3/22:

Suarez-Navarro +170
Dolgopolov +135

[Hardcoar]

Thanks for sharing your picks.