tevari's 2013 tennis thread

[tevari]

In this thread, I'll be tracking my picks. Some will have insight, others not so much, depending on my mood I've had a profitable 2010, 2011, and 2012, though in declining order. Looking to buck the trend. Though it is the first day of the year on the calendar, the season started 4 days ago, and I have already made two picks in this thread, both winners, so I am going to include this in my record. I play $100 units, and don't make too many bets. Good luck to all any/all that tail.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/tennis-betting/2097474-gajdosova-340-brisbane.html

YTD: 2-0-0 +$422.00

[tevari]

1/1/13

Brands [+160] Chardy had an 'impressive' year last season but this match really is serve versus serve. If things get tight, I expect the Frenchman to revert to his usual choking ways and erratic shot taking. His forehand is especially troublesome. I expect at least a tiebreak or two. The German has a good shot here.

[JNic]

Great hit with Brands, it seemed like such an obvious play but I was scared of Chardy for some reason

[tevari]

Thanks.

YTD: 3-0-0 +$582.00

Done for the day.

[tevari]

JNic, any thoughts on Lopez/Kubot? Have a 4 teamer riding on him. I know I will hedge but not sure how much yet. Match starts in about 2 hrs

Wager Type : Parlay (4 team)
Rolling IF-WIN-ONLY from Ticket # 52080326-1
Wager Status : PendingRisk / To Win Amount : 158.57 / 417.18(USD)
Accepted : 12/31/2012 7:09PM - PST

125.00 will be forwarded to ticket #52112533 - 1#1) Wager Type : Money Line
Outcome : Pending
Sport / Period : ATP Match Betting Tennis / Game
Selection : Lopez, Feliciano
Time : 12/31/2012 11:00:01PM - (PST)
Line : -210
Game Notes : MATCH WAGERING - A full set must be completed for money line wagers to have action. The spread and total are based on sets and the full match must be completed for action. On first set betting, 1st set must be completed for money line wagers to be valid.
#2) Wager Type : Money Line
Outcome : Win
Sport / Period : ATP Match Betting Tennis / Game
Selection : Youzhny, Mikhail
Time : 1/1/2013 4:30:01AM - (PST)
Line : -350
Game Notes : MATCH WAGERING - A full set must be completed for money line wagers to have action. The spread and total are based on sets and the full match must be completed for action. On first set betting, 1st set must be completed for money line wagers to be valid.

[beefcake]

Great hit my man!!!

Tailed...Won...Gracias

[tevari]

Whoops. The last 2 legs of that parlay got cut off ...Peng & Goerges both hit.

[Optional]

Maybe hedge with Kubot +3 and go for the middle?

[tevari]

^ Should have, but I locked in Kubot at +155 for a hundo.

[DoubleRedDragon]

i just put $500 on kubot and $200 on lopez to win 2-1. I win $750 if Lopez wins 2-1 and $1,300 if Kubot wins so that's $700 with possible $50 or $600 profit. Just need a set from Kubot!

[tevari]

Good luck chief. I'm unsure if they will play this match today as the Ferrer/Brown match should be ending at like 11 PM now due to the 1 hour delay.

[DoubleRedDragon]

wow that would suck to have to wait, do books refund if it gets delayed to the next day?

[DoubleRedDragon]

i'm chasing like hardcore on this play... this purdue game F**'d me this morning lol

[tevari]

wow that would suck to have to wait, do books refund if it gets delayed to the next day?

No. You have to wait unfortunately. They SHOULD play though, I think Kohlschreiber/Dodig went until about 11-11:30 yesterday.

[Optional]

Man, 3 serve breaks in first 4 games.

[tevari]

Well, Lopez just completely shat the bed.

[DoubleRedDragon]

damn i just locked up the $50 profit on my $700 investment.... Kubot!!!

[DoubleRedDragon]

nice, i won. Hey Tevari, can u plz explain why make a parlay and then hedge, where's the value in that mathematically?

[tevari]

Well, most of the time if I do make a 3 or 4 player parlay, the last leg is usually what makes or breaks me. Therefore, to either ensure profit (guarding against loss of the last leg losing), hedging is something I always do. For example, in the situation below:

Wager Type : Parlay (4 team)
Rolling IF-WIN-ONLY from Ticket # 52080326-1
Wager Status : LossRisk / To Win Amount : 158.57 / 417.18(USD)
Accepted : 12/31/2012 7:09PM - PST

Lost : 158.57#1) Wager Type : Money Line
Outcome : Loss
Sport / Period : ATP Match Betting Tennis / Game
Selection : Lopez, Feliciano
Time : 12/31/2012 11:00:01PM - (PST)
Line : -210
Game Notes : MATCH WAGERING - A full set must be completed for money line wagers to have action. The spread and total are based on sets and the full match must be completed for action. On first set betting, 1st set must be completed for money line wagers to be valid.
#2) Wager Type : Money Line
Outcome : Win
Sport / Period : ATP Match Betting Tennis / Game
Selection : Youzhny, Mikhail
Time : 1/1/2013 4:30:01AM - (PST)
Line : -350
Game Notes : MATCH WAGERING - A full set must be completed for money line wagers to have action. The spread and total are based on sets and the full match must be completed for action. On first set betting, 1st set must be completed for money line wagers to be valid.
#3) Wager Type : Money Line
Outcome : Win
Sport / Period : WTA Match Betting Tennis / Game
Selection : Peng, Shuai
Time : 1/1/2013 0:00:01AM - (PST)
Line : -300
Game Notes : MATCH WAGERING - A full set must be completed for money line wagers to have action. The spread and total are based on sets and the full match must be completed for action. On first set betting, 1st set must be completed for money line wagers to be valid.
#4) Wager Type : Money Line
Outcome : Win
Sport / Period : WTA Match Betting Tennis / Game
Selection : Goerges, Julia
Time : 12/31/2012 10:00:01PM - (PST)
Line : -230
Game Notes : MATCH WAGERING - A full set must be completed for money line wagers to have action. The spread and total are based on sets and the full match must be completed for action. On first set betting, 1st set must be completed for money line wagers to be valid.


Ticket Details : # 52112146-1
Wager Type : Money Line
Wager Status : WinRisk / To Win Amount : 125.00 / 193.75(USD)
Accepted : 1/1/2013 6:58AM - PST


Won : 193.75Amount Paid : 318.75Sport / Period : ATP Match Betting Tennis / Game
Selection : Kubot, Lukasz
Time : 1/1/2013 8:30:01AM - (PST)
Line : +155
Game Notes : MATCH WAGERING - A full set must be completed for money line wagers to have action. The spread and total are based on sets and the full match must be completed for action. On first set betting, 1st set must be completed for money line wagers to be valid.


The fact that Kubot beat Lopez fukked the parlay, but I still made more back than I originally bet on the parlay. Hedging isn't really looking to profit, it is about protecting yourself against potential loss.

[tevari]

Adding tonight, 9 PM EST:

Erakovic [+115]

[tevari]

1/3/12: Davydenko -4.5 [-120]

YTD: 3-1 $482.00

[Optional]

I took the under 20.5. Figured Davy could win 6-4 6-4 or 7-6 6-3 and Bolelli still cover the handicap. (not that I really think it will be that close)

[tevari]

I think the under is solid. If Davy plays the way he did against dracula & youhz, this wont be close

[tevari]

Winner.

YTD: 4-1 $569.22

[Optional]

What do you think the line will be on Davy against Ferrer? +3? +4?

[tevari]

I think he'll be outclassed. Maybe something like 6-4 6-3. Tough one to call considering how well 'denko has played this tournament.

[Optional]

I will have trouble not taking a shot with him if the price is right

[tevari]

It'll probably be something like -350/+270 on the ML. Will pass for sure. GL if you play it

[tevari]

Auckland 8 PM EST:

Hampton/Radwanska under 19 games [-105]

[tevari]

YTD: 4-2 +$469.22

Sunday 1/6: McHale [+340]

One of my favorite situational bets against a player coming off winning a tournament. Li needed three sets to dispose of a hot Zakopalova, and I think she will give a half hearted effort tonight with the Aussie Open around the corner. Lots of traveling, and a hungry opponent in McHale (who has been poor). I expect 2 close sets, or a one set and retirement victory for McHale. 1 unit.

[beefcake]

Love the play.Li at 2 sets to 1 is also around +300..might play that as well for insurance..

[tevari]

McHale served for the set twice, at 5-4 and 6-5 and choked both times and then played like doo-doo in the tiebreak. Chalk that up as a loss.

[tevari]

YTD: 4-3 +$369.22

1 wager tonight: Errani to win 2-0 [+165] 1 unit

[tevari]

Winner.

YTD: 5-3 +534.22

Another play: Vinci/Jankovic under 20.5 [-105]

[tevari]

Loser on the total.

YTD: 5-4 +$434.22

Last play for the day: B.Becker [+150]