tevari's 2013 tennis thread

[EaglesPhan36]

What brand condom do you use for this thread? It seems to be STD free on a daily basis. Nice work broseph.

[tevari]

<3. These herp derp tournaments in the far corners of the world are my favorite. I anticipate lots of +200 dogs hitting this week, particularly in Brussels.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah these weeks before Slams usually feature alot of schleps of similar skill.

[tevari]

Made a little amendment to my wager. Nix Bouchard on the ML, parlaying her with Voegele for a little sump'in sump'in. While I have you here, shall you be playing anything this week? Seen the draws yet?


Wager Type : Parlay (2 team)
Wager Status : PendingRisk / To Win Amount : 170.00 / 250.95(USD)
Accepted : 5/19/2013 4:09PM - PST

#1) Wager Type : Money Line
Outcome : Pending
Sport / Period : WTA Match Betting Tennis / Game
Selection : E. Bouchard
Time : 5/20/2013 3:35:00AM - (PST)
Line : +100
Game Notes : MATCH WAGERING - A full set must be completed for money line wagers to have action. The spread and total are based on sets and the full match must be completed for action. On first set betting, 1st set must be completed for money line wagers to be valid.
#2) Wager Type : Money Line
Outcome : Pending
Sport / Period : WTA Match Betting Tennis / Game
Selection : S. Voegele
Time : 5/20/2013 8:05:00AM - (PST)
Line : -420
Game Notes : MATCH WAGERING - A full set must be completed for money line wagers to have action. The spread and total are based on sets and the full match must be completed for action. On first set betting, 1st set must be completed for money line wagers to be valid.

[RHB041000]

What brand condom do you use for this thread? It seems to be STD free on a daily basis. Nice work broseph.

i agree. has to be one of the best non BS threads, not to mention one with some of the best capping ability.

[tevari]

Thank you for the kind words. Looks like Strasbourg will be rained out today. Adding in Brussels:

Lepchenko -1.5 sets @ [-110]

[tevari]

Lepchenko had 3 match points to make my wager a winner, but lost them all AND dropped the second set.

YTD: 23-19 +$1,383.88

[tevari]

Roland Garros early leans & upset alerts:

- Rezai is a dangerous first round opponent for Kvitova IMO. It will still most likely end up in a straight sets victory for the Czech, but not without some hiccups. I fancy the handicap of what should be around +5.5 or +6 games.

- Hanescu can and probably will beat Tomic straight up. Though Hanescu opened up as the favorite, I expect the odds on him to drop significantly pre-match as the square bettors pound Tomic because of past success. If it lies anywhere between -150 to -120, I'm on Hanescu.

- Puig +200 looks tasty. Petrova is pretty dreadful on clay - she almost lost to Giorgi recently. Double faults and unforced errors everywhere. On the other hand, Puig is going to be loose and play aggressively. IMO she has top 10 talent written all over her, but her game is somewhat raw. I'll be on the Puig ML here.

- Halep +115 - Burn out for CSN? I look for Halep to extend her recently new found form and beat Suarez Navarro straight up, who has never performed well at slams, historically. She uses a variety of wide angle shots, drop shots, and has a usually error-less second serve.

- Woz/Robson PK - Caro has been on somewhat of a losing streak as of late - losing back to back matches against Jovanovski & Zheng. She looked disinterested and just plain bad. Robson played a decent tournament a few weeks ago, and although clay isn't her favorite surface, I think she can absolutely take Woz down in the first round as to what I'll call a mild upset. Leaning Robson here, but will probably take the over.

- Barthel +210 - She can hit Kerber off the court, as she demonstrated in Doha this year, with a 6-1, 6-2 dominant win over her. Kerber has the intangibles, but if she is off and disinterested as she oftentimes is, I think Barthel can pick her off with relative ease. Small to medium play.

- My biggest play of the first round will be Janowicz -115 against Ramos. Bigger serve, more weapons, one of the prettiest drop shots in the business. I find this to be a gross mismatch and somewhat to good to be true, but I'll make the square play here. 3 units.

[Hardcoar]

Odds on Hanescu have already dropped quite massively, which of course means they are now shorter than they previously were...

It'll be interesting to see where it goes from here though.

[Hardcoar]

In other news:

Agree with everything except Robson because the odds are absolute shit (despite the current circumstances yes). I will be on Caro above evens.

I've no idea about Rezai. Will look into it.

Huge on Jerzy Shore @ 1.9 myself, and also loving Nieminen @ 1.66.

Also, Tsurenko @ 4.33 seems amazing. Will also be taking 1:st @ 3.5.

[Hardcoar]

What do you think of Andujar @ evens vs Youzhny, Lucic-MB @ 4.3 vs Lepchenko, Coco 'Pops @ 4.5 vs Shvedova, Hampton @ 2.9 vs Safarova, Arvidsson @ 6 vs Lisicki, and Pennetta @ 1.9 vs Flipkens?

Any and all opinions welcome!

[MasterBet]

Roland Garros early leans & upset alerts:

- Rezai is a dangerous first round opponent for Kvitova IMO. It will still most likely end up in a straight sets victory for the Czech, but not without some hiccups. I fancy the handicap of what should be around +5.5 or +6 games.

- Hanescu can and probably will beat Tomic straight up. Though Hanescu opened up as the favorite, I expect the odds on him to drop significantly pre-match as the square bettors pound Tomic because of past success. If it lies anywhere between -150 to -120, I'm on Hanescu.

- Puig +200 looks tasty. Petrova is pretty dreadful on clay - she almost lost to Giorgi recently. Double faults and unforced errors everywhere. On the other hand, Puig is going to be loose and play aggressively. IMO she has top 10 talent written all over her, but her game is somewhat raw. I'll be on the Puig ML here.

- Halep +115 - Burn out for CSN? I look for Halep to extend her recently new found form and beat Suarez Navarro straight up, who has never performed well at slams, historically. She uses a variety of wide angle shots, drop shots, and has a usually error-less second serve.

- Woz/Robson PK - Caro has been on somewhat of a losing streak as of late - losing back to back matches against Jovanovski & Zheng. She looked disinterested and just plain bad. Robson played a decent tournament a few weeks ago, and although clay isn't her favorite surface, I think she can absolutely take Woz down in the first round as to what I'll call a mild upset. Leaning Robson here, but will probably take the over.

- Barthel +210 - She can hit Kerber off the court, as she demonstrated in Doha this year, with a 6-1, 6-2 dominant win over her. Kerber has the intangibles, but if she is off and disinterested as she oftentimes is, I think Barthel can pick her off with relative ease. Small to medium play.

- My biggest play of the first round will be Janowicz -115 against Ramos. Bigger serve, more weapons, one of the prettiest drop shots in the business. I find this to be a gross mismatch and somewhat to good to be true, but I'll make the square play here. 3 units.

Puig look very very tasty,
But Jano looks even more,this can be a big chance for him to keep his good form he shows recently,to the real big thing.
Although he has a difficult draw he can make the QF,and then stopped by Rafa..


BOL in this GS Tevari!!

[GoBlue77]

Roland Garros early leans & upset alerts:

- Rezai is a dangerous first round opponent for Kvitova IMO. It will still most likely end up in a straight sets victory for the Czech, but not without some hiccups. I fancy the handicap of what should be around +5.5 or +6 games.

- Hanescu can and probably will beat Tomic straight up. Though Hanescu opened up as the favorite, I expect the odds on him to drop significantly pre-match as the square bettors pound Tomic because of past success. If it lies anywhere between -150 to -120, I'm on Hanescu.

- Puig +200 looks tasty. Petrova is pretty dreadful on clay - she almost lost to Giorgi recently. Double faults and unforced errors everywhere. On the other hand, Puig is going to be loose and play aggressively. IMO she has top 10 talent written all over her, but her game is somewhat raw. I'll be on the Puig ML here.

- Halep +115 - Burn out for CSN? I look for Halep to extend her recently new found form and beat Suarez Navarro straight up, who has never performed well at slams, historically. She uses a variety of wide angle shots, drop shots, and has a usually error-less second serve.

- Woz/Robson PK - Caro has been on somewhat of a losing streak as of late - losing back to back matches against Jovanovski & Zheng. She looked disinterested and just plain bad. Robson played a decent tournament a few weeks ago, and although clay isn't her favorite surface, I think she can absolutely take Woz down in the first round as to what I'll call a mild upset. Leaning Robson here, but will probably take the over.

- Barthel +210 - She can hit Kerber off the court, as she demonstrated in Doha this year, with a 6-1, 6-2 dominant win over her. Kerber has the intangibles, but if she is off and disinterested as she oftentimes is, I think Barthel can pick her off with relative ease. Small to medium play.

- My biggest play of the first round will be Janowicz -115 against Ramos. Bigger serve, more weapons, one of the prettiest drop shots in the business. I find this to be a gross mismatch and somewhat to good to be true, but I'll make the square play here. 3 units.

i like that you also like those last four plays. especially robson

[ohumad]

i like that you also like those last four plays. especially robson

How many times have you said you were done with WTA? You are a sick man!

[tevari]

French Open Day 1 plays:

Giorgi [+180]
Morita [+100]
Cirstea [+120]

[ohumad]

I see a few Jerzy backers here. Does the recent loss to Ramos in Barcelona concern you guys at all? Unfortunately I don't think the match was streamed.

[tevari]

Split Morita & Cirstea.

YTD: 24-20 +$1,403.88

[tevari]

Monday:

#1) ATP Match Betting Tennis
Selection : G. Dimitrov 5/27/2013 2:00AM - (PST) Money Line -800 for Game

#2) ATP Match Betting Tennis
Selection : J. Isner 5/27/2013 2:00AM - (PST) Money Line +105 for Game

#3) WTA Match Betting Tennis
Selection : J. Zheng 5/27/2013 5:35AM - (PST) Money Line -230 for Game

Risking : 200.00 To Win : 461.79 USD

[Hardcoar]

How confident are you in Isner value?

[tevari]

I think he's a vastly superior player compared to Berlocq, but his head is a mess. I think he'll generate enough BPs to win in 4 sets. Fairly confident.

[Hardcoar]

Thanks, that gives me the added confidence required to dump some onto him. I was leaning towards him at those odds or higher as well. I feel his style of play and (historical) quality as well as experience should give him the edge if the match goes beyond three sets, and he really hasn't been half-bad on clay this year.

He did have some issues with a knee a while back though...

[tevari]

neither zheng nor isner lost a set today. waiting on dimitrov to finish that parlay, and adding for Tues:

Zakopalova [+275]

[GoBlue77]

hey tevari, i have a $900 parlay pending on kanepi, can u please elaborate on why you like zakopalova please??

[tevari]

Just a hunch play. She's played a lot of tennis lately - she won Brussels the other day & is a good all around player, but I feel Zakopalova has the game to bother her - powerful groundies and a decent drop shot. Kanepi is the superior player overall, but I feel a let down for her. I would put a hundy on Zako if I were in your shoes.

[tevari]

Adding for Tuesday:

Zeballos -3.5 games @ [-130]

[tevari]

Monday:

#1) ATP Match Betting Tennis
Selection : G. Dimitrov 5/27/2013 2:00AM - (PST) Money Line -800 for Game

#2) ATP Match Betting Tennis
Selection : J. Isner 5/27/2013 2:00AM - (PST) Money Line +105 for Game

#3) WTA Match Betting Tennis
Selection : J. Zheng 5/27/2013 5:35AM - (PST) Money Line -230 for Game

Risking : 200.00 To Win : 461.79 USD

Winner.

YTD: 25-20 +$1,856.67

Waiting on Zakopalova & Zeballos

[tevari]

Hump day doubles parlay:

181646637-1	5/29/13 12:31am	$250.00	$231.74	Pending	3 Team Parlay
				Pending	5/29/13 6:30am ATP Doubles Tennis 306 M.Granollers/M.Lopez -1200* vs J.Levinsky/Y-H.Lu
				Pending	5/29/13 8:00am ATP Doubles Tennis 311 I.Dodig/M.Melo -245* vs V.Hanescu/G.Muller
				Pending	5/29/13 9:00am ATP Doubles Tennis 319 M.Mirnyi/H.Tecau -380* vs A.Mannarino/B.Paire

[Dmoneytx]

Good luck on the doubles today Tevari. Wishing you the BOL, as always

[tevari]

Much appreciated as always, good sir.

[tevari]

Doubles parlay a winner, though at 190.00, because Lu retired. Zeballos won, but didn't cover and Zakopalova flopped.

Updated tally:

26-22 +$1,846.67

Adding: Puig [+135] Risking 250 to win 325

[tevari]

Win.

YTD: 27-22 +$2,171.67

Thursday parlay:

181687741-1*	5/29/13 2:38pm	Rolling If-Bet (Win Only) from ticket # 181645533-1.
		$224.52	$549.33	Pending	5 Team Parlay
				Pending	5/30/13 5:00am ATP Tennis 106 Grigor Dimitrov -1675* vs Lucas Pouille
				Pending	5/30/13 9:30am ATP Tennis 122 John Isner -330* vs Ryan Harrison
				Pending	5/30/13 6:30am ATP Tennis 149 Stanislas Wawrinka -1050* vs Horacio Zeballos
				Pending	5/30/13 6:30am WTA Tennis 589 Alize Cornet -215* vs Silvia Soler-Espinosa
				Pending	5/30/13 5:00am WTA Tennis 622 Jie Zheng -180* vs Melanie Oudin

[tevari]

Left out a Giorgi loss from the first round.

Updated tally:

27-23 +$2,071.67

That parlay is pending tomorrow, adding along with it:

Voegele +5.5 games [-105]

[tevari]

Zheng through in the parlay, Dimitrov (basically) as well. I will wait to see the outcome of the Cornet match if and when it gets played, and hedge with Harrison for a hundy or more if she wins.

[tevari]

That parlay is looking pretty solid for a hedge on Harrison to ensure at the most a 400.00 profit (will put 173.00 on him when the time comes)... Cornet up 6-1, 3-3 with deuce on SSE's serve & Wawrinka I'm not concerned about at all, as he took the first set against Zeballos.

[ohumad]

You're killing it man! Keep up the good work.