The Italian Job

[Visage987]

AC Milan suck big time.....

[Vaughany]

Two good chances in a row...more like it

[Vaughany]

ha this is destined for Giladino to score the late winner

[Vaughany]

God sake...Ambrosini is terrible...such a donkey

[Vaughany]

wow got lucky there...amazing freekick from Diamanti

[Visage987]

the way Milan play, they won't make it to top 10 this year.

[Vaughany]

Spezia down to 9 men and 1-1!

[Vaughany]

Gooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo oooooooal Pazzziiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiini

[Visage987]

goaaaalllll

[Visage987]

did you guys see that, talk about luck

[Vaughany]

Goalkeeper shambles!

Hedged out of my SPezia +0.5 play with Verona -0.5 live in play

[Visage987]

yeaaah

[Vaughany]

3-1 game over...good stuff boys...was never in doubt

Need Newcastle to get the job done tomorrow...if they lose at home to shittty Aston Villa I'll be SHOCKED

[BigBurk]

Lol! Good call

[Visage987]

got lucky today, gonna fade AC Milan from now on though.....

[Vaughany]

Looks like Spezia are gonna hold out with 9 men and get the draw....should of stuck with my gut on tht one. Still, good night with Kasimpasa, Modena and Milan all winning Plenty more opportunities to make money off Spezia this season, fact they've gone to Verona (one of the best teams in the league) and took the lead then held out to get the draw with 9 men shows the type of character they have as well as quality. As long as they sort out their disciplinary issues they will be a top 3 team this season. Will be betting on them in their next game at home to Brescia for sure

[Vaughany]

got lucky today, gonna fade AC Milan from now on though.....

yeah, aside from obvious ones like Juve and Inter, likes of Roma, Napoli, Lazio, even Catania and Genoa are gonna have a lot of joy against them I reckon!

[Vaughany]

Single

1

Ternana v Modena – Draw No Bet

Modena @ 11/8

Won

£100.00

£237.50

O/295*******238/F

[in:extremis]

Well Pazzini wont get an easier hattrick than that. Dives to win a penalty. Keeper throws the ball to him a metre out. Then scores the third off a miss kick that went straight to him. I always liked Pazzini and hope he does well in Milan.

Anyway, the game. Only watched 2nd half. The scoreline will show 3-1 but what a howler from Agliardi. Schoolboy stuff. At 2-1 down with not long to go it is very difficult to get the better of the top Italian sides and Bologna rushed their play and didn't create a whole lot after that. Bologna have problems and they need to find a way to get Gilardino into goal scoring positions. Their defence looks like they are in panic mode too much of the time.

Onto AC Milan. As I suspected, without any wide players most of their play goes through the middle with the end product a ball usually to Pazzini. He then grabs a defender and falls over for a free kick. Width has to come from the fullbacks but with such a disparity between Antonini and De Sciglio most of the attacking threat comes from Antonini down the left side.

There are just too many like minded central midfielders in the team. Nocerino, De Jong, Montolivo, Ambrosini, Boateng. What they are currently doing is predictable and boring. The good sides will have no problems dealing with them.

In saying that, there is hope I believe. You could use the excuse that the protracted transfers of Silva and Ibrahimovic, then the Cassano affair meant that Allegri coudnt get his team right for the start of the season. The team looks unsure of what they are doing and I dont think he knows what the best 11 is.

I would say if Pato and Robinho are fit and you had a midfield/attack of this:

El Shaarawy-------Boateng--------Montolivo/Ambrosini-----------Robinho
---------------------Pazzini---------------Pato----------------------------------

Then you are looking good. You are going to get plenty of goals there but lost defensive cover out wide. With no teams really playing 4-4-2 though you could simply do this:

---------Boateng-----------Ambrosini/Nocerino------------Montolivo
El Shaarawy---------------Pazzini/Pato--------------Robinho-----------

Either way, what they are currently doing in my opinion is no good and extremely reminiscent of Chelsea for the majority of last season. It is no fluke that Chelsea have improved remarkably with the inclusion of Hazard, and we have not seen Marin yet.

[Vaughany]

Im seeing Livorno PK at -137 on sites. Think I'm gonna have to take this. They lost at home to Padova last season but Padova had Andrea Bovo (who scored both goals), Milanetto, Bentivoglio, Ruopolo who have all left now due to match-fixing or in Bovo's case joining more ambitious Spezia while Livorno have kept their key players. Livorno in good form and have a dangerous trio in Siligardi, Dionisi and Paulinho up front.

[Vaughany]

Lazio at -137 seems like a logical play as well at home to Palermo. They rested some key players like Klose, Mauri, Ledesma, and Candreva (and took Hernanes, Lulic and Gonzalez off after 70 mins) so they should be in ok condition despite mid week game. Morale is down at Palermo after the big loss to Napoli and due to fans complaining about Zamparini not making any noteworthy signings, not really replacing key players in Balzaretti and Silvestre, and they've always been pretty poor away from home - winning just 1 game last season, and gaining 9 points in total which was why they were in bottom 5 at end of season. They are basically going to be relying on some Miccoli magic but he is getting on in age (33 now) and only so long he can carry them! So far got Lazio PK in a parlay but may add a play on them straight up or -1.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Just a little summary of my day.

Pick: Vicenza +0 @1.92 (DafaBet)
Pick: Pro Vercelli +0.5 @2.05 (188Bet)
Pick: Sassuolo - Crotone Under 2.25 @1.96 (PinnacleSports)
Pick: Ternana v Modena Under 2 @2.09 (Dafabet)
Pick: Milan to win @2.15 (PinnacleSports)

Making 3-2 for the night with a nice +1.16u profit.
Very happy also because two losing plays finished not far from what I've predicted.
Congrats to Vaugh and the other winners!

Personal record now stands:
7.5 W - 3 L - 2.5 P (71.43% SR)
+4.27u (+40,67% Yield)

[Vaughany]

Pisa v Latina (Lega Pro 1/B)
Pick: Pisa to Win @2.11 (DafaBet)

I really don't understand these odds.
Pisa is a solid and ambitious team with a coach who loves to win and just yesterday they signed a solid player for Prima Divisione like Scappini (doubtful for tomorrow match).
Latina went off a very hard season, where they faced relegation danger all year long. Now the squad is pretty different a with a lot of good players but, as Coppa Italia Lega Pro matches already shown to us, they still have to find their rythm.
Plus they have some key missing like midfielder Burrai.
Arena Garibaldi is an hot stadium and for Latina it will be hard to exit from there with some points in their bags.


Viareggio v Paganese (Lega Pro 1/B)
Pick: Viareggio -0.25 @2.06 (188Bet)

I like Viareggio, great club with a nice future based program.
Paganese, as every year, start with great enthusiasm but sometimes the team collapsed in the middle of the season and for what I saw from the transfer market I think they've a middle par roster, not more than this.
Prima Divisione, like every other division in Italy, is very home based and girone B recorded a 65% home win factor over last years so I think we could pull out something good out of these two (Viareggio and Pisa) tuscan +EV priced home teams.


Viareggio v Paganese (Lega Pro 1/B)
Pick: Under 2.25 @1.76 (188Bet)

Same game but now on the total.
I see a low scoring game here because Viareggio is expected to keep the ball game but they weren't too much effective on scoring last year and with Scappini still doubtful they could have some difficulties finding the net.
Paganese also have a good defense (even without some starter like keeper Marruocco or old defensive back Fusco).
Some interesting facts: Viareggio finished many home games without scoring last season (and considered I don't expect Paganese to score a lot could be good on the total bet but not for the side one) but when they scored at least twice they always won.
1-0/0-0/0-1 or even 2-0 are the most likely score here but I definitely give an advantage to Viareggio.

Pisa score second even with 10 men! And Viareggio 2-1 up...looks like 2 out of 3...good job bud

[Vaughany]

15. Reggiana v Lumezzane (Lega Pro 1/A)
Pick: Under 2.25 @1.80 (DafaBet)

In this matchup is involved my home and favourite team, Reggiana.
Squad is a little bit weaker than one year ago because top players are one year older and some key positions are still empty.
Main hole is the striker: as experienced player we only have Paolo Rossi which is often injured and he doesn't guarantee (anymore?) 10 goals/year and young De Cenco is unproven in Prima Divisione.
Lumezzane is a solid team with a good couple of strikers in Inglese and Torri. Apparently solid defense too.
Last two years Reggiana opened the season with similar matches and they ended both 1-1.
Home team will face a lot of problems on scoring against Lume but I think it's very unlikely they'll concede something more than once to the hosts.
Reggiana at home went under over 60% of times in recent seasons and Lume away went the same over 70% of the total matches.
In last 5 matchups played in Reggio under was 4/5 and Reggiana scored 2 goals only in one occasion (and that ended over).
Most likely score are 1-1 or 0-2 IMHO, don't see a 0-0 here.

Also looking good, Reggiana 1-0 up

[Vaughany]

Took my boyz Juve -1 A.H. at -139 live-in-play after they went 1-0 up. If they dont win by a three goal difference now after going 2-0 up against 10 men who played a tough game mid-week I'll be extremely disappointed.

[Vaughany]

Gooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooollllllll llllllllll FORZA GIOVINCO ALE!

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Decent day with a small profiting 2-2 on Prima Divisione but Seconda blow me 1 unit...

Forza Atalanta for this night!

[Vaughany]

Other plays tonight:

Small play on Catania/Genoa Over 2.5 at Evens;
Parlay (double): Napoli PK & Samp PK;
Parlay (double): Livorno PK & Galatasary PK;
Atalanta +0.5;
Lazio -1 A.H;
Lazio PK as last leg of a parlay.

[Vaughany]

Decent day with a small profiting 2-2 on Prima Divisione but Seconda blow me 1 unit...

Forza Atalanta for this night!

Forza Atalanta per sempre!

[Vaughany]

Giovinco makes it 4-0... can't believe I got these generous odds for -1 when Juve were 1-0 after ten minutes against 10 men! Odds should of been closer to -175 to -200 range IMO. Should of put a grand on it really...

9:17am 2-Sep-12

9:00am 2-Sep-12

Soccer Handicap

Udinese vs Juventus (-1) for Game. [Live! 0-1]

-139

695.00

500.00

Pending

[swordsandtequila]

You guys know your Serie A, worth a small wager on Inter +104 (ml)? Don't know much about Italian soccer, just looking at stats. Appreciate your input.

[Vaughany]

ha Juve conceded

[Vaughany]

You guys know your Serie A, worth a small wager on Inter +104 (ml)? Don't know much about Italian soccer, just looking at stats. Appreciate your input.

I haven't watched any of Roma's games this season so can't give any rational advice really. I do expect a few goals though, maybe Inter 2-1 or 2-2, but the odds at -200 or whatever it is on the Over 2.5 reflect this. Combination of Zeman's attacking play and Inter's dodgy defence (especially if Ranocchia plays who I think is very average) means that I cant trust Roma not scoring a couple. That being said I'd be surprised if Inter lose though

[Vaughany]

Giovinco makes it 4-0... can't believe I got these generous odds for -1 when Juve were 1-0 after ten minutes against 10 men! Odds should of been closer to -175 to -200 range IMO. Should of put a grand on it really...

9:17am 2-Sep-12

9:00am 2-Sep-12

Soccer Handicap

Udinese vs Juventus (-1) for Game. [Live! 0-1]

-139

695.00

500.00

Pending

Juve should hold out to win 4-1...as usual got casual in last 15 to 20mins...brought on clown Matri who just gives ball away, fouls and moans at the ref for 20minutes. Hate to think what we'll look like if he and Bendtner are paired together up front!

[swordsandtequila]

Thanks Vaughany. Totals was first thing I checked, too juicy. I'm US, my options start at over 3 -140. Don't like big overs. Straight pk isn't an option either, so may roll small on ml. Thanks for your input.