The Italian Job

[Vaughany]

Looks like Spezia are trying to improve their attack even more by selling Evacuo to Nocerina and replacing him with either Cacia, or Jeda That would be some strike-force if they had Sansovini and one of those two alongside and Di Gennaro behind.

Pro-Vercelli trying to sign Tiribochi or Bonazzoli
Verona want Sforzini or Ebagua
Atalanta bid 3.5mill for Paulinho

ANd Ternana game being played at Gubbio...think I'll def put some on Modena PK at +137 now

[TheSportsAnalyst]

SportsAnalyst....do you know if any of Reggina's key players will be back such as Colombo, Bonnazoli, Stuani for game against Pro Vercelli this wknd (I cant see any info on their website)? Thinking of playing Reggina straight up or at least putting the PK at -275 in a parlay.

I've put a small play on Spezia +0.5 at +102 so far. I know Verona has one of the strongest teams on paper but Spezia also look very solid this season even if more than half their squad is made up of young players on loan. Sammarco in centre mid is a great signing and could be one of best and most consistent midfielders in the league if he stays fit. And obviously they have one of the best forwards in the league in Sansovini, and Pichlmann is going to be motivated to to get on the score sheet against his former club. Then they've got Okaka and Evacuo who aren't bad players to bring on up front if needed. Di Gennaro has always been an awesome talent and this could be his breakout year this season...another great talent. Then the likes of Porcari, Andrea Bovo, Garofalo, Goian, Benedetti, and Schiavi are all solid signings. I'll be really surprised if Spezia don't finish in top 4 this season even though they are newly promoted. Will be betting on them a lot in home games for sure...they've got Brescia at home on 9th Sept...could be a big play for me!

Also considering play Juve Stabia PK or +0.5 away at Brescia. After watching the highlights of the Livorno game we actually got quite lucky with that bet as Juve Stabia could of scored at least 2 or 3 in the first half, and then the Jidayi sending off helped tremendously in second-half. If not for that it could well of ended 1-1

Modena PK and Varese PK are other ones Im considering but I dont really wanna be betting on away teams too much!

I didn't start reading sports papers or surfing fans websites today so I don't know much about formations for Serie B.
I've planned to start doing my homeworks on that matches today or tomorrow.
But my 2 cents about your plays:
Reggina odds are rising and this is a reason why I'm thinking to put smth on Pro Vercelli (handicap of course) because they're a pretty solid team and a draw couldn't be pulled out.
After saturday matches I noticed one match with strange odds: Vicenza - Cesena. Vicenza had the news they're in serie B just two days before the first match and so they're a work in progress team but they impressed me in La Spezia. Cesena is really bad (Sassuolo is good but not as good as last years) mainly because of poor coaching (shocking decision made by team president to give the lead to his brother with no experience as a manager). Some bookies have Vicenza @-110 on the DNB/+0, it's very very appealing!!!

And about Verona - Spezia don't know... I'll probably stay away from this match.

I'll go more in depth this evening!

[Vaughany]

I didn't start reading sports papers or surfing fans websites today so I don't know much about formations for Serie B.
I've planned to start doing my homeworks on that matches today or tomorrow.
But my 2 cents about your plays:
Reggina odds are rising and this is a reason why I'm thinking to put smth on Pro Vercelli (handicap of course) because they're a pretty solid team and a draw couldn't be pulled out.
After saturday matches I noticed one match with strange odds: Vicenza - Cesena. Vicenza had the news they're in serie B just two days before the first match and so they're a work in progress team but they impressed me in La Spezia. Cesena is really bad (Sassuolo is good but not as good as last years) mainly because of poor coaching (shocking decision made by team president to give the lead to his brother with no experience as a manager). Some bookies have Vicenza @-110 on the DNB/+0, it's very very appealing!!!

And about Verona - Spezia don't know... I'll probably stay away from this match.

I'll go more in depth this evening!

Yeah, I'd only play Reggina if Stuani and Bonazzoli were starting up front otherwise I agree the value is probably with Pro-Vercelli handicap.

I haven't looked at Vicenza game yet but that dnb at -110 is interesting. They've just signed Giandonato on loan from Juve as well who is a great talent

Look forward to hearing some more from you later then

[TheSportsAnalyst]

8. Vicenza v Cesena (Serie B)
Pick: Vicenza +0 @1.92 (DafaBet)

Vicenza is still work in progress but they're planning to add some quality players thsi week.
Considered they knew they're back in Serie B just two days before the game against Spezia they played decent against a real top team and on the road.
Now they're a week more fit and with some fresh youngsters ready to contribute.
But this isn't really a bet on Vicenza, instead it's a lay against Cesena which really disappointed at home against Sassuolo on monday.
They were totally incapable of create something real and left too many chances to neroverdi who beated them badly.
Coach Campedelli (considered he has no experience as a manager) was a bet made by his brother, Igor, chairman of the team and now it seems he's losing it.
Line is pretty tempting, saving us from a probable draw.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

10. Reggina v Pro Vercelli (Serie B)
Pick: Pro Vercelli +0.5 @2.05 (188Bet)

Main question here is: could Pro resist?
Reggina is still without Bonazzoli and Stuani is very close to Deportivo La Coruna. This means only Ceravolo (a very good player anyway) on offense.
Home team have a very good defense but their difficulties to find the way to the net despite a good possession of the ball and a satisfying style of play made me think about a possible 0-0.
1-1 is very unlikely because I don't think Pro will be able to score, unless Reggina defense will make a giant error (like in Empoli).
I'm on a good run, I try something.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

11. Sassuolo v Crotone (Serie B)
Pick: Under 2.25 @1.96 (PinnacleSports)

Very good and solid defenses. Outcome unpredictable but it could easily end 2-0 or 1-1. Don't see more than two goals here.


12. Ternana v Modena (Serie B)
Pick: Under 2 @2.09 (Dafabet)

Two modest teams will face in this match in Gubbio. I have no particular stats for this pick, it's just because I see high chances for a quiet 0-0 (or 1-1 at worst) with both teams quite happy.
Probably Ternana want to take some points after the defeat in Bergamo last week but playing in Gubbio will drop some support and for what I saw against Hellas, Modena is great when it comes to take a point home without conceding chances, so it will be hard for Ternana anyway.

[BHS]

Inter - Roma over?

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Despite I don't like the over in italian football yes, it's seems reasonable as a prediction but price is absolutely not appealing.

O 2.5 is already -200 on Pinny and even the O 3 is juiced with a -125 (and probably will drop much more approaching the game).
Line is 3.25, bulls**t.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Plus, I'm very bad on overs.
Last night I was on O 3 in Universidad game (which is a goal machine and scored at least 2 goals 6/7 this season).
Of course it ended 1-1.

[Vaughany]

Agree, that Over in Inter game is too steep now

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Agree, that Over in Inter game is too steep now

Maybe a combo (but played as singles) Inter + Over could be interesting but odds are a little bit low unfortunately.
Inter +100
Over 3.25 +104

I'll decide tonight or tomorrow.

P.S. I noticed that on the first matchup between Inter and Roma of the last 3 years they went under 3/3, while over was 3/3 on the second one in February/March.
2011/2012 line was 2.75 (U) and 2.5 (O)
2010/2011 line was 2.5 (U) and 2.75 (O)
2009/2010 line was 3 (U) and 2.5 (O)

It seems like a trend: higher line on the first matchup (which goes under) and lower the second one (which goes, sometimes even easily, over).

[Vaughany]

Stuani joins Espanyol. Vicenza and Pro Vercelli want Alberto Masi on loan from Juve...top prospect

[Vaughany]

Verona signing Bojinov!

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Verona signing Bojinov!

Definitely best team in serie B, no doubts.

[Vaughany]

Definitely best team in serie B, no doubts.

yep, this Spezia match will be interesting this wknd

[BHS]

Napoli - Fiorentina?

I don't know if this is a mistake but my booker gives even odds for Napoli

[Vaughany]

Napoli - Fiorentina?

I don't know if this is a mistake but my booker gives even odds for Napoli

Probably not an error, just a generous line! Most books have 4/5 to 8/11 range. I'll be on Napoli if Nastasic and Jovetic leave tomorow!

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Probably not an error, just a generous line! Most books have 4/5 to 8/11 range. I'll be on Napoli if Nastasic and Jovetic leave tomorow!

Nastasic already left Vaugh, Jovetic won't 99,9% after Berbatov fool behaviour.

[Vaughany]

Nastasic already left Vaugh, Jovetic won't 99,9% after Berbatov fool behaviour.

ok cool

[in:extremis]

I am on Inter ml this weekend against Roma. I think with Cassano and Sneijder behind Milito they are too strong for Roma.

[Vaughany]

Nastasic already left Vaugh, Jovetic won't 99,9% after Berbatov fool behaviour.

I see Maresca has signed for Samp! Absolute legend, Enzo will always be one of my heroes after the equaliser he scored against Torino and the epic celebration! That was a great day!

[BHS]

Vaug, you bet on Turkish league right?

Galatasaray -1 against Bursa on Sunday. It's -105 but it will drop a lot in next days. Bursa just played 120 minutes match in Holland and they got eliminated. Low morale, too exhausted against Galatasaray.

[Vaughany]

Vaug, you bet on Turkish league right?

Galatasaray -1 against Bursa on Sunday. It's -105 but it will drop a lot in next days. Bursa just played 120 minutes match in Holland and they got eliminated. Low morale, too exhausted against Galatasaray.

Nice one, yeah I saw most of Bursa game last night as I had a bet on Over 2.5. They looked slow and sluggish anyway so they are bound to be even slower this weekend! Took Gala -1 at -115

[Seaweed]

[TheSportsAnalyst]

13. Cagliari v Atalanta (Serie A)
Pick: Atalanta +0.25 @1.93 (SBObet)

Very particular story for this match.
Cagliari planned to play this season home matches in Quartu Sant'Elena which is one of Cagliari's suburbs.
Main problem is some work (a wall around the stadium) still have to be completed to give Is Arenas field full availability for a Serie A match.
Serie A told Cagliari to play in Trieste (over 1,000 km and a sea away from Sardinia) and players decided to start a strike to force Lega letting them play in Cagliari (but with no public).
Given these conditions I don't see "home" team so favourite and I expect odds dropping approaching Sunday.
Plus Atalanta gave me good feelings despite losing against Lazio last week while Cagliari isn't great Cagliari from last season IMHO.
With a +0.25 offered at a very good price I like this pick a lot 'cause I see a low scoring draw very likely here (and to no reason to play Cagliari, priced so low, with no supporters and with some missed training sessions during the week).

[TheSportsAnalyst]

14. Bologna v Milan (Serie A)
Pick: Milan to win @2.15 (PinnacleSports)

Ok, Milan wasn't great against Sampdoria on home debut but now they're facing Bologna, one of the worst team (IMHO) of the entire serie A.
Bologna show against Chievo was pathetic at best and I don't think the lonely Gilardino could revive a team which will have to fight very hard to avoid relegation.
Milan had three problems: defense (but Bologna wasn't able to even approach goal area last match), playmaker (they bought De Jong but he won't play) and especially offense and this is my main concern because with Robinho absence it's all in Bojan feet.
Bologna showed a good defensive attitude in Verona despite two goals conceded and I think Milan have to step up in orded to not lose many other points to Inter and Juventus.
If Milan won't win this sunday I think it's worth to take a look on team's odds for next matches because sooner or later they'll be back and price could be good after a negative streak.
Main plus for rossoneri is morale. Now they know they've a quality player in the middle of the field and this could help a lot.

[Vaughany]

14. Bologna v Milan (Serie A)
Pick: Milan to win @2.15 (PinnacleSports)

Ok, Milan wasn't great against Sampdoria on home debut but now they're facing Bologna, one of the worst team (IMHO) of the entire serie A.
Bologna show against Chievo was pathetic at best and I don't think the lonely Gilardino could revive a team which will have to fight very hard to avoid relegation.
Milan had three problems: defense (but Bologna wasn't able to even approach goal area last match), playmaker (they bought De Jong but he won't play) and especially offense and this is my main concern because with Robinho absence it's all in Bojan feet.
Bologna showed a good defensive attitude in Verona despite two goals conceded and I think Milan have to step up in orded to not lose many other points to Inter and Juventus.
If Milan won't win this sunday I think it's worth to take a look on team's odds for next matches because sooner or later they'll be back and price could be good after a negative streak.
Main plus for rossoneri is morale. Now they know they've a quality player in the middle of the field and this could help a lot.

Gilardino hasnt joined Bologna has he? Thought they were relying on Diamianti, Aquafresca and Gabbiadini up front

[Vaughany]

13. Cagliari v Atalanta (Serie A)
Pick: Atalanta +0.25 @1.93 (SBObet)

Very particular story for this match.
Cagliari planned to play this season home matches in Quartu Sant'Elena which is one of Cagliari's suburbs.
Main problem is some work (a wall around the stadium) still have to be completed to give Is Arenas field full availability for a Serie A match.
Serie A told Cagliari to play in Trieste (over 1,000 km and a sea away from Sardinia) and players decided to start a strike to force Lega letting them play in Cagliari (but with no public).
Given these conditions I don't see "home" team so favourite and I expect odds dropping approaching Sunday.
Plus Atalanta gave me good feelings despite losing against Lazio last week while Cagliari isn't great Cagliari from last season IMHO.
With a +0.25 offered at a very good price I like this pick a lot 'cause I see a low scoring draw very likely here (and to no reason to play Cagliari, priced so low, with no supporters and with some missed training sessions during the week).

Good to see you on this as well...already locked in Atalanta +0.5 at -128. Really like Atalanta team...dangerous attacking players in Moralez, Troisi, Bonaventura, Denis, Schelleto. Some solid midfielders in Biondini, Cigarini, Carmona, Scorzanella, Raimondi, and defense isnt bad with Lucchini, Capelli, Matheu, and if they keep Peluso who I think is a very good player.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Gilardino hasnt joined Bologna has he? Thought they were relying on Diamianti, Aquafresca and Gabbiadini up front

Gilardino, after Ramirez departure and Floccari refusal, is headed to Bologna this evening but (probably) they won't lineup him as a starter. Gabbiadini could be great, luckily for me it seems he will be benched.
Acquafresca is the most overrated italian striker of last decade and Diamanti isn't a real scorer but of course I respect him.
But the point is simple: Milan have to win. No other way.

[Vaughany]

Gilardino, after Ramirez departure and Floccari refusal, is headed to Bologna this evening but (probably) they won't lineup him as a starter. Gabbiadini could be great, luckily for me it seems he will be benched.
Acquafresca is the most overrated italian striker of last decade and Diamanti isn't a real scorer but of course I respect him.
But the point is simple: Milan have to win. No other way.

Oh right I see. Im tempted to play the under 2.5 though the odds aren't great. Think I'll take the PK at -200 and put it in a double with something else such as Newcastle PK

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Tiribocchi signing is official (Pro Vercelli) and Vicenza signed Pinardi.
Good moves for my two side bets for tomorrow.

[Vaughany]

yee Tiribocchi could very useful indeed

[Vaughany]

Vercelli got Masi back on loan as well

[Vaughany]

Cacia or Antenucci to Spezia

[nyyanks773]

love the milan play