The Italian Job

[Vaughany]

Spezia sign Antenucci....great attacking trio now in Di Gennaro behind Sansovini and Antenucci

[Vaughany]

So Verona have got Cacia and Bojinov!

[TheSportsAnalyst]

15. Reggiana v Lumezzane (Lega Pro 1/A)
Pick: Under 2.25 @1.80 (DafaBet)

In this matchup is involved my home and favourite team, Reggiana.
Squad is a little bit weaker than one year ago because top players are one year older and some key positions are still empty.
Main hole is the striker: as experienced player we only have Paolo Rossi which is often injured and he doesn't guarantee (anymore?) 10 goals/year and young De Cenco is unproven in Prima Divisione.
Lumezzane is a solid team with a good couple of strikers in Inglese and Torri. Apparently solid defense too.
Last two years Reggiana opened the season with similar matches and they ended both 1-1.
Home team will face a lot of problems on scoring against Lume but I think it's very unlikely they'll concede something more than once to the hosts.
Reggiana at home went under over 60% of times in recent seasons and Lume away went the same over 70% of the total matches.
In last 5 matchups played in Reggio under was 4/5 and Reggiana scored 2 goals only in one occasion (and that ended over).
Most likely score are 1-1 or 0-2 IMHO, don't see a 0-0 here.

[Vaughany]

See Reggiana have got Davide Matteini...he was a solid prospect back in the day at Palermo!

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Pisa v Latina (Lega Pro 1/B)
Pick: Pisa to Win @2.11 (DafaBet)

I really don't understand these odds.
Pisa is a solid and ambitious team with a coach who loves to win and just yesterday they signed a solid player for Prima Divisione like Scappini (doubtful for tomorrow match).
Latina went off a very hard season, where they faced relegation danger all year long. Now the squad is pretty different a with a lot of good players but, as Coppa Italia Lega Pro matches already shown to us, they still have to find their rythm.
Plus they have some key missing like midfielder Burrai.
Arena Garibaldi is an hot stadium and for Latina it will be hard to exit from there with some points in their bags.


Viareggio v Paganese (Lega Pro 1/B)
Pick: Viareggio -0.25 @2.06 (188Bet)

I like Viareggio, great club with a nice future based program.
Paganese, as every year, start with great enthusiasm but sometimes the team collapsed in the middle of the season and for what I saw from the transfer market I think they've a middle par roster, not more than this.
Prima Divisione, like every other division in Italy, is very home based and girone B recorded a 65% home win factor over last years so I think we could pull out something good out of these two (Viareggio and Pisa) tuscan +EV priced home teams.


Viareggio v Paganese (Lega Pro 1/B)
Pick: Under 2.25 @1.76 (188Bet)

Same game but now on the total.
I see a low scoring game here because Viareggio is expected to keep the ball game but they weren't too much effective on scoring last year and with Scappini still doubtful they could have some difficulties finding the net.
Paganese also have a good defense (even without some starter like keeper Marruocco or old defensive back Fusco).
Some interesting facts: Viareggio finished many home games without scoring last season (and considered I don't expect Paganese to score a lot could be good on the total bet but not for the side one) but when they scored at least twice they always won.
1-0/0-0/0-1 or even 2-0 are the most likely score here but I definitely give an advantage to Viareggio.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

See Reggiana have got Davide Matteini...he was a solid prospect back in the day at Palermo!

What a crazy player. Board raised salary cap to resign him despite half of the supporters want him to be released.
When he wants to play he still is a Serie B player but 60%-70% of the time he just stole his wage.
He ended on national tv last year after a goal against Pisa when he showed a Livorno underwear to tuscani's fans (he is from Livorno and they hate each other badly).

[Vaughany]

What a crazy player. Board raised salary cap to resign him despite half of the supporters want him to be released.
When he wants to play he still is a Serie B player but 60%-70% of the time he just stole his wage.
He ended on national tv last year after a goal against Pisa when he showed a Livorno underwear to tuscani's fans (he is from Livorno and they hate each other badly).

haha what a bastard!

[Vaughany]

Pisa v Latina (Lega Pro 1/B)
Pick: Pisa to Win @2.11 (DafaBet)

I really don't understand these odds.
Pisa is a solid and ambitious team with a coach who loves to win and just yesterday they signed a solid player for Prima Divisione like Scappini (doubtful for tomorrow match).
Latina went off a very hard season, where they faced relegation danger all year long. Now the squad is pretty different a with a lot of good players but, as Coppa Italia Lega Pro matches already shown to us, they still have to find their rythm.
Plus they have some key missing like midfielder Burrai.
Arena Garibaldi is an hot stadium and for Latina it will be hard to exit from there with some points in their bags.


Viareggio v Paganese (Lega Pro 1/B)
Pick: Viareggio -0.25 @2.06 (188Bet)

I like Viareggio, great club with a nice future based program.
Paganese, as every year, start with great enthusiasm but sometimes the team collapsed in the middle of the season and for what I saw from the transfer market I think they've a middle par roster, not more than this.
Prima Divisione, like every other division in Italy, is very home based and girone B recorded a 65% home win factor over last years so I think we could pull out something good out of these two (Viareggio and Pisa) tuscan +EV priced home teams.


Viareggio v Paganese (Lega Pro 1/B)
Pick: Under 2.25 @1.76 (188Bet)

Same game but now on the total.
I see a low scoring game here because Viareggio is expected to keep the ball game but they weren't too much effective on scoring last year and with Scappini still doubtful they could have some difficulties finding the net.
Paganese also have a good defense (even without some starter like keeper Marruocco or old defensive back Fusco).
Some interesting facts: Viareggio finished many home games without scoring last season (and considered I don't expect Paganese to score a lot could be good on the total bet but not for the side one) but when they scored at least twice they always won.
1-0/0-0/0-1 or even 2-0 are the most likely score here but I definitely give an advantage to Viareggio.

So is Scappini the replacement for Raffaele Perna do you know or had they already signed a decent striker to replace Perna? They were pretty reliant on him for goals last season (15) but he's gone back to Cittadela.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

So is Scappini the replacement for Raffaele Perna do you know or had they already signed a decent striker to replace Perna? They were pretty reliant on him for goals last season (15) but he's gone back to Cittadela.

Yep, Scappini is the replacement for Perna.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Santarcangelo v Bassano (Lega Pro 2/A)
Pick: Santarcangelo +0 @1.83 (Bet365)

Bassano once again made a team with strong promotion ambitions but playing in Santarcangelo (which is even better than last year, when they finished just out playoff zone) will be not easy for anyone.
Last year they won 11 games at home scoring 29 goals in 19 matches.


Nuovo Campobasso v Hinterreggio (Lega Pro 2/B)
Pick: Hinterreggio +0 @2.32 (BetSafe)

Hinterreggio made a very interesting squad, while Campobasso sometimes disappointed in the past when they had to deal with favourite pressure. It's worth a try.


I'll wait until tomorrow morning to see if someone will open in Serie A or Seconda (some matches I'm monitoring).

[Vaughany]

Just locked this in live-in-play after Torino missed the penalty...happily take the -1 against 10 men Pescara!...

9:31am 1-Sep-12

9:00am 1-Sep-12

Soccer Handicap

Torino (-1) vs Pescara for Game. [Live! 0-0]

+102

250.00

255.00

Pending

[Vaughany]

Just locked this in live-in-play after Torino missed the penalty...happily take the -1 against 10 men Pescara!...

9:31am 1-Sep-12

9:00am 1-Sep-12

Soccer Handicap

Torino (-1) vs Pescara for Game. [Live! 0-0]

+102

250.00

255.00

Pending

3-0 Got Torino PK in a couple parlays with Newcastle PK as well but knew I should of gone big on this...Pescara seemd destined for bottom position this season! Lost without Insigne and Immobile

Need Milan to get the win now, got the PK in a double with Newcastle PK

[BigBurk]

Just locked this in live-in-play after Torino missed the penalty...happily take the -1 against 10 men Pescara!...

9:31am 1-Sep-12

9:00am 1-Sep-12

Soccer Handicap

Torino (-1) vs Pescara for Game. [Live! 0-0]

+102

250.00

255.00

Pending

3-0, well done!

[Vaughany]

My Serie B predictions for games tonight for shits and giggles!: Ascoli 1 Bari 1; Brescia 1 Juve Stabia 1; Reggina 0 Pro Vercelli 0; Sassuolo 2 Crotone 1; Cittadella 1 Grosseto 1; Ternana 1 Modena 2; Verona 1 Spezia 1; Vicenza 2 Cesena 1; Lanciano 0 Varese 1.

[Vaughany]

3-0, well done!

Cheers bud, needed that after losing 200 on Middlesbrough earlier today

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Good call Vaugh! Let's make this thread a load of italian cash!

[Vaughany]

Vaug, you bet on Turkish league right?

Galatasaray -1 against Bursa on Sunday. It's -105 but it will drop a lot in next days. Bursa just played 120 minutes match in Holland and they got eliminated. Low morale, too exhausted against Galatasaray.

What's the talk in Turkey about Bursa's condition going in to this game bro? Also, will Belluschi be making debut?

I've had to play Kasimpasa PK again against Elazigspor...on a neutral ground and Omer Hurmaci making debut for Kasimpasa...hopefully gets back to his best before he went to Fenerbahce...dude was an awesome talent a couple years ago...the next Quaresma!!

[BigBurk]

You play pk's alot Vaugh? See em coming by oftenly.

[Vaughany]

You play pk's alot Vaugh? See em coming by oftenly.

Yep, especially in parlays...been screwed too many times by teams getting late equalisers or the team I've bet on just getting casual and blowing their lead...such as with Blackburn today, had £500 on the PK line at +128, they were 2-0 after half hour then blew it and conceded 3 then thankfully equalized in last 10 mins to end 3-3! Day would of been ruined if I hadnt taken the PK and got the push!

[BigBurk]

Yup! You are absolutely right.. I had Tottenham in two parlays this weekend.. Sucks big time.

Been eyeing pk's (preferably home teams) and dogs more often lately, seems like favs win by the spread less and less.

[in:extremis]

Tottenham are not a team to bet on. Havent been for the last couple of years.

AC Milan are a piece of shit side. Fade material. Teams that play with 4 central midfielders always suck, aka Chelsea last year.

[BigBurk]

They won the CL though....

[Vaughany]

They won the CL though....

lol teams tht win the CL suck tho apparently!

[Vaughany]

Milan take the lead...good start

[in:extremis]

Cmon guys everyone knows Chelsea fluked the CL. They got pumped hard by both Barca and Bayern. My point is, teams that play without any wide presence are not that good.

I hope Milan wins for you guys today, I was not talking about the game vs Bologna.

I was pointing out that in the overall picture, Milan suck. They won't win the scudetto and they will get pumped in Europe.

[Vaughany]

Cmon guys everyone knows Chelsea fluked the CL. They got pumped hard by both Barca and Bayern. My point is, teams that play without any wide presence are not that good.

I hope Milan wins for you guys today, I was not talking about the game vs Bologna.

I was pointing out that in the overall picture, Milan suck. They won't win the scudetto and they will get pumped in Europe.

Cheers, and yeah Chelsea had a lot of luck last year!

Agree, I'll be fading Milan quite a lot this season...their replacement signings aren't tht impressive..no chance Pazzini and Krkic come close to replicating what Ibra and Cassano offered last season, and theyve not replaced Thiago Silva with an elite Centre back. Abbiati is dodgy in goal as well! Almost spilled a Diamanti strike there. Diamanti is causing some problems. Only reason I played them today is because PK was -200 which is good value considering Bologna are also not looking good so far this season. Usually Milan PK against Bologna would be closer to -400 (even when away from home)...only reason it's not is because Milan lost at home to Samp, but tht doesnt automatically mean they are going to do the same away at Bologna. They still have enough quality to get at least draws at teams like Bologna.

Woooah Taider should of scored there

[BigBurk]

Cmon guys everyone knows Chelsea fluked the CL. They got pumped hard by both Barca and Bayern. My point is, teams that play without any wide presence are not that good.

I hope Milan wins for you guys today, I was not talking about the game vs Bologna.

I was pointing out that in the overall picture, Milan suck. They won't win the scudetto and they will get pumped in Europe.

You are totally right bro, just messing with you.

I hate teams like Chelsea, they should never have won the CL last year, big shame,

[Vaughany]

fuuuck Diamanti is raping Milan!

[Vaughany]

At least Spezia take the lead and Kasimpasa added a second...Milan better not screw this over for me now

[Vaughany]

8. Vicenza v Cesena (Serie B)
Pick: Vicenza +0 @1.92 (DafaBet)

Vicenza is still work in progress but they're planning to add some quality players thsi week.
Considered they knew they're back in Serie B just two days before the game against Spezia they played decent against a real top team and on the road.
Now they're a week more fit and with some fresh youngsters ready to contribute.
But this isn't really a bet on Vicenza, instead it's a lay against Cesena which really disappointed at home against Sassuolo on monday.
They were totally incapable of create something real and left too many chances to neroverdi who beated them badly.
Coach Campedelli (considered he has no experience as a manager) was a bet made by his brother, Igor, chairman of the team and now it seems he's losing it.
Line is pretty tempting, saving us from a probable draw.

Lookin very good, kicking myself for not playing this! 2-1 up at half time and Succi sent off for Cesena

[in:extremis]

Got the game on, will watch the 2nd half and add my analysis.

[Vaughany]

Got the game on, will watch the 2nd half and add my analysis.

I will imagine it will be something like "Milan playing like shiiit...Pazzini just falling over, Sharawwy missing in action, Nocerino and Ambrosini constantly fouling"! Theyve took Montelivo off for De Jong as well so hardly any creativity in the team now. Im not full of hope for this second half...wouldnt be suprised if there is a sending off as well.

[in:extremis]

Well that Pazzini dive for the penalty was 8/10. Looking forward to watching De hack machine in action for Milan.
Boateng 90th minute winner.

[Vaughany]

SportsAnalyst....do you know if any of Reggina's key players will be back such as Colombo, Bonnazoli, Stuani for game against Pro Vercelli this wknd (I cant see any info on their website)? Thinking of playing Reggina straight up or at least putting the PK at -275 in a parlay.

I've put a small play on Spezia +0.5 at +102 so far. I know Verona has one of the strongest teams on paper but Spezia also look very solid this season even if more than half their squad is made up of young players on loan. Sammarco in centre mid is a great signing and could be one of best and most consistent midfielders in the league if he stays fit. And obviously they have one of the best forwards in the league in Sansovini, and Pichlmann is going to be motivated to to get on the score sheet against his former club. Then they've got Okaka and Evacuo who aren't bad players to bring on up front if needed. Di Gennaro has always been an awesome talent and this could be his breakout year this season...another great talent. Then the likes of Porcari, Andrea Bovo, Garofalo, Goian, Benedetti, and Schiavi are all solid signings. I'll be really surprised if Spezia don't finish in top 4 this season even though they are newly promoted. Will be betting on them a lot in home games for sure...they've got Brescia at home on 9th Sept...could be a big play for me!

Also considering play Juve Stabia PK or +0.5 away at Brescia. After watching the highlights of the Livorno game we actually got quite lucky with that bet as Juve Stabia could of scored at least 2 or 3 in the first half, and then the Jidayi sending off helped tremendously in second-half. If not for that it could well of ended 1-1

Modena PK and Varese PK are other ones Im considering but I dont really wanna be betting on away teams too much!

Modena take the lead. Spezia down to 10 men though...gonna be lucky if they can hold out and at least get a draw now

[Vaughany]

This young Milan right back is very average!