TomJSports Soccer Picks - Bundesliga/Champ League/Internat'l/Other

[TomJSports]

Moving these totals over from: http://forum.sbrforum.com/soccer-han...l#post11208699 Did this to keep the Bundesliga thread about Bundesliga, as I wasn't expecting to be making picks in it.

This Week: 9-0-6 +54.3 (5.43%) (22-28 Aug)
Last Week: 7-0-4 +20.4 (2.04%) (15-21 Aug)
Total: 16-0-10 +74.7 (7.47%)


Hope to make some good calls on the Euro qualies and friendlies coming up.

[Tom Jane]

I approve this message. But I fully expect bad luck and many losses with the consolidated name.

[OneTipster]

No, no, no...

I will tailing you so BOL!

[OneTipster]

When you bet x1, x5 it means 1%, 5% of your bankroll?

[escou]

Good luck with the qualifiers, should be some nice games to bet on I will probably give my opinion on some of the games tomorrow. thank you for the nice picks always.

[TomJSports]

When you bet x1, x5 it means 1%, 5% of your bankroll?

Yeah, needless to say, my unit sizes are not 'normal' and are probably ten times what you're used to seeing. So 5 units is 0.5%, 10 units is 1%, 20 units is 2%, and so on. I do this because I don't like decimals. And I realise that makes no sense, because decimals end up in there any way.

Also, I know percentages aren't additive, but I add my units together to give a rough percentage because I don't feel like calculating compounding interest each day. So needless to say, my unit price changes per day based on how I'm doing.

Good luck with the qualifiers, should be some nice games to bet on I will probably give my opinion on some of the games tomorrow. thank you for the nice picks always.

Thanks for the kind words. Yeah, I may eye parlays with these matches. Damn tennis has me in parlay mode, kind of. I hit a $600 10-man parlay though earlier; knew one would hit. Probably should stick to straight bets, though.

[OneTipster]

I understand. Yes, indeed...you have a little complicated system.

[TomJSports]

Well here goes my biggest day of public bets. I typically don't go over 10% on a given day, but went 15%, and that's after paring away some iffy plays and decreasing some numbers. Doing well in the U.S. Open, so played more matches than I typically do; typically like to keep it well under a third. But without further ado:

Euro Qualifying:
1) Greece/Israel o2 -120 x10
2) Moldava/Finland u2.5 -130 x5
3) Belgium -1 -130 x5
4) Croatia/Malta o3 EV x10
5) Belarus +150 x10
6) Iceland +1.5 -120 x5
7) England -1 -105 x10
8) Portugal/Cyprus o2.5 -135 10x
9) Ireland -105 x5
10) Estonia/Slovenia u2.5 -115 5x
11) Italy/Faroe o3.5 +105 20x
12) France/Albania u2.5 -130 5x

Friendlies:
13) Argentina -1.5 +105 20x
14) México +160 x5
15) Ecuador -1 -130 10x
16) Paraguay +120 10x


Of course, with a massive card like this, tail with caution. 16/29 is a lot of plays, but it's all in fun

1) Travel for Greece shouldn't be too bad to Israel, so that shouldn't be a concern. And while I could see this end up being a 1-0 triumph, Greece needs to stay on top of the division over Croatia, and Israel needs points to stay in the race. So I see a 1-1 or 2-1 (like last time) much much more likely, or even more goals.
2) Typically with unders, I'm much more likely to lean than make a full bet. If you throw out San Marino in Helsinki, Finland has 3 goals (one in San Marino) in 5 games. And Moldava has 5 in 5, sans San Marino. Both don't score many goals, and I think a 2-0 victory or 1-1 draw, or less, if very likely.
3) Travel to Baku is very long and will effect play (as evidenced by Turkey's 1-0 loss and honestly not that big of a travel time.) So Belgium will have their work cut out for them. However, Belgium needs a win much more than the Azeri side to stave of Turkey, and matches up well against them (they won 4-1 in Brussels). I think, (as a lean,) despite travel, Belgium pulls off the two goal win.
4) Malta has proven to be a tricky side to call in Group F. However, Croatia has Israel at their heels, and wants to leapfrog Greece in the standings. And they certainly can score. So I think there are much greater odds of this being a four goal game than a two goal game, and if it's a three goal game, it's a push.
5) Belarus has been very tough to play in Minsk, and despite Bosnia bringing in a strong squad, I see Belarus pulling it out at home to keep neck-and-neck with France. Eager to see this one, as both squads will travel to Zenica for a rematch in 4 days.
6) I do like Norway to beat Iceland, but more like a score of 1-0. Both teams have been involved in a very large amount of low-scoring, tight games, and I think this will be the same. Should be a good, defensive, low-scoring game.
7) Despite being in Sofia and it being a decent travel for England, I think they bring their A game here. They can't let off the gas as Group G leaders just yet, and they should be able to win by two goals or more against an overmatched Bulgarian squad.
8) Now, I don't think this will be a 4-4 scoring extravaganza like last time they met, but I do expect there to be plenty of goals. Especially from the Portuguese side who could pot the three themselves. Cyprus has allowed plenty of goals, but so has Portugal. Even if it ends up 2-1, it's a hit.
9) I typically don't like betting against a sturdy, hardworking Slovak side, but something about playing in Ireland gives the Irish a discernible edge at home over the opposition. Both squads are in the thick of Group B in what should be a fantastic match.
10) Last meeting between Estonia and Slovenia was in Tallinn and ended 1-0. In Ljubljiana, I'm not expecting much different, maybe a 2-0 victory. Estonia's not a great side, but pride themselves on playing great defense. Only once did they let in more than two goals and that was against Italy.
11) I like this as a home run pick. Obviously, I'm not expecting any goals from the Faroe side, but as a typical punching bag in UEFA, I see the Faroe Islanders letting in a bunch from an Italian side eager to continue wrapping up goal differential.
12) The French have been very workmanlike in their performances to grab the lead in Group D and Albania has been a tough performer in the division. In the six qualies for Albania, none have featured more than two goals. Ditto for France. If this were to be played in France, I'd flirt with the over, but in Tirana, I go under.
13) Argentina is one the cremes of the crop in CONMEBOL and traditionally torches the Venezuelas of CONMEBOL. With this being a friendly to be played in India to spice up interest in the sport, I fully expect the stars of Argentina to shine to their full potential.
14) Typically I'd have México by a longshot over the Poles, but I'm just worried the long travel will end up having quite a large effect, so I'm going light on this one.
15) Ecuador definitely has a better team than Jamaica, and I think the travel for Jamaica and the elevation of Quito will both come into play harshly. I fully expect an easy win for Ecuador.
16) Paraguay was the king of the tie at Copa América, but think Panama is a weak enough side to get them a win. Panama won't necessarily be a pushover, but being runners up at Copa América should give them the confidence to pull out a win in Panama.

Well there's my massive ticket for the first day of Internationals. I have some parlays in the works, but am pretty spent after just putting that together. I fully expect to be 0-16 once games are played tomorrow though. 16 plays, such hubris!

[OneTipster]

Thanks for shares! Good luck!

[OneTipster]

Bad start.
I hope the others plays will be better.

[TomJSports]

ha ha, no kidding. off to an awesome 0-2 start. can't believe argentina only got one goal.

[TomJSports]

Watching my winnings for picking Donald Young dwindle down. Will definitely play more conservative on the sixth. All fun matches in tennis and euro qualies though!

[TomJSports]

Euro Qualifying:
1) Greece/Israel o2 -120 x10 -12
2) Moldava/Finland u2.5 -130 x5 -6.5
3) Belgium -1 -130 x5 -13
4) Croatia/Malta o3 EV x10 +10
5) Belarus +150 x10 -10
6) Iceland +1.5 -120 x5 +5
7) England -1 -105 x10 +10
8) Portugal/Cyprus o2.5 -135 10x +10
9) Ireland -105 x5 -10.5
10) Estonia/Slovenia u2.5 -115 5x -5.75
11) Italy/Faroe o3.5 +105 20x -20
12) France/Albania u2.5 -130 5x -6.5

Friendlies:
13) Argentina -1.5 +105 20x -20
14) México +160 x5 -5
15) Ecuador -1 -130 10x +10
16) Paraguay +120 10x +10


Today: 6-0-10 for -54.25

Not a great day at all. However, if one of Argentina or Italy scored more than one against their far inferior opponents, I would have had a much more respectable 7-0-9 and -14.25 tally. If both hit, a 8-0-8 +25.75 tally. So I can't complain too much, I suppose. Those two let me down big time. More to come in a bit.

[TomJSports]

Friendlies:
Brazil -220 20x

Brazil is looking for a win and is doing so at their home-away-from-home in London. Ghana has a bad loss against Uruguay and a solid loss against South Korea. Brazil is pissed off and a better team than either. I saw the line movement, but once it got ~-200, I had to jump.

[nobull]

i totally agree with the Brazil pick here ............ the books will get phucked here .............. goodluck ! ! ! !!

[TomJSports]

In looking at the last international day, I also lost an 8 team parlay because Lithuania couldn't score one goal. Obviously, I did not have a lot down on it, but still frustrating. Biggest problem was a made too many plays on too many leans. I was 1-6 on 5x 'lean' bets and was 5-2 on the more confident 10x bets. The 0-2 on 20x bets hurt, but I would make the same plays given the same information. Historically Argentina is 18-0 over Venezuela and 81-9 in goals. And no question Italy has the capability to score more than one measly goal, but c'est la vie, maybe travel got to them. I should've gone 20x on England, with the worse result being a push, but ohh well.

[TomJSports]

i totally agree with the Brazil pick here ............ the books will get phucked here .............. goodluck ! ! ! !!

No kidding, one would hope. Once I saw it approaching 2:1 I jumped, now it's close to 3:1 again. Ghana's always got some fight, but the superior squad should win outright for sure.

[TomJSports]

...a red card, in a friendly? c'mon!! even though it should help me out, that's ridiculous.

[TomJSports]

Friendlies:
Brazil -220 20x +20
Brazil/Ghana u2.5 10x +10

Solid day, but man is Brazil pathetic. Superior squad and up a man for ~60% of the game. Way to go Ghana for playing like men and keeping it close!

Today: 2-0-0 for +30
02-Sept: 6-0-10 for -54.25
International weekend: 8-0-10 for -24.25

[TomJSports]

Euro Qualifying:
1) Russia -0.5 -130 x10
2) Netherlands/Finland o3 +120 x10
3) Denmark EV x5
4) Georgia -125 x5
5) Greece -120 x10
6) England/Wales o3.25 EV x10
7) England -2 -140 x10

Friendlies:
8) Germany -1 +110 x10
9) Ecuador -1 -140 x10

Other Leagues:
10) (Portugal Liga) FC Porto -1.5 -110 x10

1) I like Russia in this matchup of the two squads on top of Group B. They one the last one 3-2 in Dublin, so the over is a possibility. I think Russia and Ireland have played a little more tentative lately, so I'm not sure on the over. But I do like Russia to pull of a win in Moscow.
2) The Dutch are a team that scores a tonne, and they likely just need one more win to qualify directly to the finals. Despite being in Helsinki, I think they find the net at least 3 times, probably 4, and wouldn't be surprised if the Finns sneak in a goal. Historically in 11 matches, it's 30-13 in goals.
3) The Danes always field a tough squad, and being neck-and-neck with the Norweigians for Group H's second place, I think a raucous København crowd helps lead them to victory. I like the under 2.5, too, but not at ~-150.
4) Not much to say other than Georgia should, by all means, beat winless and drawless Malta.
5) Travel from Israel to Latvia should not effect the Greek team too poorly. Latvia will be looking to play the role of spoiler, but the Greeks should hold out to retain their lead in Group F, setting up a pivotal matchup with Croatia in October.
6) I typically don't heavily back England, but after their showing in Bulgaria, I think they take it to an inferior Welsh squad. Maybe Gareth Bale sneaks one in, but I see England easily scoring in bunches in front of a Wembley crowd.
7) Piggybacking off of the last bet, I see England winning by at least three.
8) Despite having the crowd against them, and not playing a 100% side, I belive the Germans beat the Poles by at least two.
9) Just like Jamaica a few days ago, you typically can't expect much out of a side coming off of long distance travel and playing at the elevation of Quito. Add in the fact Ecuador has the better side, and I see a two goal victory, at least.
10) Not too much to say about this, you have a juggarnaut (Porto) against a bottom dweller (União). União hasn't won and Porto is undefeated. Last year, Porto beat União 5-1 at home and 2-0 on the road. A two goal or more victory should be a safe bet.

Well those are my plays for tomorrow. A much smaller card and hopefully that will treat me well. I was leaning on a few plays, but backed off when looking at my 'lean' record from last day. I have a sizeable parlay on favourites like I usually do for favourites. 10x to win 80x on Netherlands, England, Italy, Scotland, Croatia, FC Porto, all to win. Hopefully it should hit!

[TomJSports]

Hilarious, Russia couldn't get a needed win at home and the Dutch are just eyeing the three points a man up since '60. I should've learned a long time to steer clear of that damn Russian squad.

[TomJSports]

And the fact I had Hungary x10 on my card. Moved Hungary to x5. And then completely took it off. 1-0 Hungary at half.

[TomJSports]

I have a sizeable parlay on favourites like I usually do for favourites. 10x to win 80x on Netherlands, England, Italy, Scotland, Croatia, FC Porto, all to win. Hopefully it should hit!

Only thing that saved me today.

[TomJSports]

Euro Qualifying:
1) Russia -0.5 -130 x10 -10
2) Netherlands/Finland o3 +120 x10 -10
3) Denmark EV x5 +5
4) Georgia -125 x5 -5
5) Greece -120 x10 -10
6) England/Wales o3.25 EV x10 -10
7) England -2 -140 x10 -10

Friendlies:
8) Germany -1 +110 x10 -10
9) Ecuador -1 -140 x10 +10

Other Leagues:
10) (Portugal Liga) FC Porto -1.5 -110 x10 +10

Parlay:
10x to win 80x on Netherlands, England, Italy, Scotland, Croatia, FC Porto, all to win. +80

So my miserable foray into Internationals continued. I did very good at Euro '08 and had been doing decent; I guess it gets tougher to call when games start feeling 'meaningless' or teams don't need to pile on goals. Such seemed to be the case with England and the Dutch. Awesome job by the Welsh though. Russia, Georgia, and Greece let me down. Again, props to Ireland, Latvia, and Malta! My leans didn't fare all that better: Hungary, Macedonia, Croatia over, Bosnia, and Luxembourg hit; Slovakia, Turkey, and France didn't.

Thank you Ecuador for remaining resolute, though! Got to bet on the home team in La Paz (Bolivia) or Quito (Ecuador) if an inferior team is coming to town. And Porto's blowout at least made my Club numbers look good.

Bring on back Club competitions!!

Today: 3-0-7 -30
Posted Parlay: +80
Total Today: +50

Internationals Today: 2-0-7 -40
Internationals Before: 8-0-10 -24.25
Internationals Total: 10-0-17 -64.25
Parlay: +80
Total Sept International weekend: +15.75 (did that parlay save my ass, or what?)

Club play today: 1-0-0 +10
Club play before: 16-0-10 +74.7
Club play total: 17-0-10 +84.7

Total International + Club: +100.45x (~+10.045%)

[jonal]

Any thoughts on the Honduras (+190) vs Paraguay(+120)? Im tempted to parlay Paraguay with Oakland for a sweat.

[jonal]

Looks like you have Paraguay in tonights game I'll tail you

[TomJSports]

Other Leagues:
(Brazil Série A) Corinthians/Flamengo o2.5 -125 5x
(Brazil Série A) Corinthians +0.25 EV 5x

Couldn't hold off until tomorrow for Bundesliga. I like these two teams to play a tough match. I like Corinthians winning and to be high scoring between these two top 5 star-laden squads.

[TomJSports]

Other Leagues:
(Brazil Série A) Corinthians/Flamengo o2.5 -125 5x +5
(Brazil Série A) Corinthians +0.25 EV 5x +5

Talk about going from 'why did I play this' to 'what a great play' in a matter of minutes. Liedson bailed me out big time in the 88th to give me two wins on the night.

Club play today: 2-0-0 +10
Club play before: 17-0-10 +84.7
Club play total: 19-0-10 +94.7

[TomJSports]

Bundesliga:
Bayer Leverkusen -130 x10
Bayer/Augsberg u2.5 -105 x5

As I stated here: This is a matchup of two of the lowest scoring teams in the Bundesliga. Under is a pretty safe bet (Bayer has hit the under consistently). Only thing that worries me is Bayer looks like they're using a slightly more aggressive lineup. At any rate, despite being in Bavaria, Bayer wins this. I may end up trying something with Porto, but -625 is quite hefty.

[beeps220]

Other Leagues:
(Brazil Série A) Corinthians/Flamengo o2.5 -125 5x
(Brazil Série A) Corinthians +0.25 EV 5x

Couldn't hold off until tomorrow for Bundesliga. I like these two teams to play a tough match. I like Corinthians winning and to be high scoring between these two top 5 star-laden squads.

Good plays, I was on the other side

Are well informed on Brazil matches? I've just been going off what I see but haven't had proper time to research. Anyways, best of luck on the other games coming up this weekend. Nice to get rid of that international break.

[TomJSports]

Good plays, I was on the other side

Are well informed on Brazil matches? I've just been going off what I see but haven't had proper time to research. Anyways, best of luck on the other games coming up this weekend. Nice to get rid of that international break.

No, I wouldn't say I'm particularly well informed on Brazilian football. After all, I did barely squeak that out I know a little bit about the bigger squads: Corinthians, Flamengo, São Paulo. I don't speak Portuguese, but know Spanish and French to kind of make things make sense that aren't in English. I mainly follow Bundesliga and Champions League, but always look for good plays in other leagues

[escou]

Brazilian football is veery tricky I must say, lately it has been a very good place to bet on overs, BUT not on the teams that you'd expect to hit the over Anyways if we take under consideration that now is that vital time in their league, when it is decided who will play in Copa america etc I guess we can expect very open and unpredictable games thought of that the other day and I dont think I will be picking any sides anymore, I will just concentrate on the overs they seem easy right now. GL on your picks Leverkusen is a very nice pick.

[TomJSports]

Other Leagues:
(Jupiler League) Genk +105 5x

Put a small bet on Genk, just because. Well I saw the odds jump to the plus side and was already considering at -105.

[TomJSports]

Brazilian football is veery tricky I must say, lately it has been a very good place to bet on overs, BUT not on the teams that you'd expect to hit the over Anyways if we take under consideration that now is that vital time in their league, when it is decided who will play in Copa america etc I guess we can expect very open and unpredictable games thought of that the other day and I dont think I will be picking any sides anymore, I will just concentrate on the overs they seem easy right now. GL on your picks Leverkusen is a very nice pick.

Yeah, Brazil is tough to call, but I honestly thought when you have two premier teams fighting for end-season positioning, I thought it'd be a goal fest. But you're right on about Brazilian football being all about offense. Especially from here on out.

[TomJSports]

holy hell, augsburg right off the bat. how about that!