Isn't Uruguay +417 SICK Value in Third Place Game?

cruyff · 07-10-10, 04:25 PM

Originally posted by cruyff

that's a suicide bet if i've ever seen one. wouldn't be remotely surprised if this was a 3-2, 4-2 type game

hope you didn't take the -450 bro...

Taka · 07-10-10, 04:26 PM

I have... oh well, sh#t happens

Taka · 07-10-10, 04:27 PM

Originally posted by July1stNe

Even though Uruguay lost, Forlan was performing fantastic. I believe Forlan performed far better than any player in World Cup, even better than Messi and any talented player. I hope Chelsea acquires Forlan and Torres.

"Even" better than Messi? Did you even watch WC?

Dirty Sanchez · 07-10-10, 04:49 PM

No such thing as sick value...if it loses

acarmelo1 · 07-10-10, 04:52 PM

Forlan is an Awesome player, better than Messi on this WC.

Dirty Sanchez · 07-10-10, 04:54 PM

Agree...Messi is a great club footballer...underachiever for his country. Forlan had some miserable club years, especially with Manchester United, but he's been stout for his country.

theplagy · 07-10-10, 04:57 PM

Originally posted by Taka

"Even" better than Messi? Did you even watch WC?

yup, better than Messi

Jimmy0607 · 07-10-10, 05:33 PM

Originally posted by suckerforparlays

go home Uruguay

Jimmy0607 · 07-10-10, 05:38 PM

Originally posted by D3 Mighty Ducks

4th place imo is just as bad as everyone else

Definitely

Jimmy0607 · 07-10-10, 05:38 PM

Originally posted by Dirty Sanchez

Agree...Messi is a great club footballer...underachiever for his country. Forlan had some miserable club years, especially with Manchester United, but he's been stout for his country.

2 years with Man U an thats about it , he won the pichichi and European Golden boot twice whats miserable about that

LT Profits · 07-10-10, 06:24 PM

Originally posted by Dirty Sanchez

No such thing as sick value...if it loses

Not true at all. If you keep getting +400 on games that close at +300, it is almost impossible to lose in the long run.

Not to mention the fact that the way the game played out, even +300 looked like an overlay.

pavyracer · 07-10-10, 06:28 PM

LT it doesn't work like this in soccer because this was a 3 way bet. You can get a +400 line in soccer move to +300 but you still can't cash the bet with 2 out of 3 outcomes.

The line moved not because of sharp action but because it was announced a couple days ago the German team was hit by a flu bug. When it was made available that Lahm, Podolski and Klose will not play the line tilted towards the +300. But it was no value bet.

Ace_of_Spades · 07-10-10, 08:29 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Not true at all. If you keep getting +400 on games that close at +300, it is almost impossible to lose in the long run.

Not to mention the fact that the way the game played out, even +300 looked like an overlay.

Don't look for value, look for winners

Ace_of_Spades · 07-10-10, 08:31 PM

Originally posted by Jimmy0607

2 years with Man U an thats about it , he won the pichichi and European Golden boot twice whats miserable about that

In the Spanish LaLiga, any player looks good.

Jimmy0607 · 07-10-10, 08:32 PM

Originally posted by Ace_of_Spades

In the Spanish LaLiga, any player looks good.

lakerboy · 07-10-10, 08:34 PM

Originally posted by Ace_of_Spades

In the Spanish LaLiga, any player looks good.

Not true completely. What happened to Michael Owen to there? So many failures there.

tailmypicks · 07-10-10, 08:45 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Not true completely. What happened to Michael Owen to there? So many failures there.

Michael owen scored 13 for real coming off the bench and his goal to minutes ratio was the highest in laliga that season. Certainly not a failure but laliga is not any easier than other big leagues

lakerboy · 07-10-10, 08:49 PM

Originally posted by tailmypicks

Michael owen scored 13 for real coming off the bench and his goal to minutes ratio was the highest in laliga that season. Certainly not a failure but laliga is not any easier than other big leagues

True but owen has always had the ability to score goals. Funny how he didnt last more than 1 year after such an astounding scoring rate.

Jimmy0607 · 07-10-10, 09:40 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

True but owen has always had the ability to score goals. Funny how he didnt last more than 1 year after such an astounding scoring rate.

Lb i think it has to do with Real Madrids retardation , if you do good they will let you go PErfect Examples: Sneijder and Robben , this season they wanted to let go Higuain he just scored too many goals like too many

babyanni · 07-10-10, 09:50 PM

Originally posted by Dirty Sanchez

No such thing as sick value...if it loses

i"ll take my germany ml play i cashed without the " value"

Jshap1515 · 07-10-10, 09:52 PM

I still thought it was good value - lose or win

LT Profits · 07-11-10, 05:42 AM

Originally posted by pavyracer

LT it doesn't work like this in soccer because this was a 3 way bet. You can get a +400 line in soccer move to +300 but you still can't cash the bet with 2 out of 3 outcomes.

The line moved not because of sharp action but because it was announced a couple days ago the German team was hit by a flu bug. When it was made available that Lahm, Podolski and Klose will not play the line tilted towards the +300. But it was no value bet.

Understood, but is still +EV, just not as much percentage-wise as it would be in a two way. Beating a closing line by 33% in a three-way market as efficient as the World Cup is still significant.

LT Profits · 07-11-10, 05:50 AM

Originally posted by Ace_of_Spades

Don't look for value, look for winners

Epic fail, value is EVERYTHING in betting. If you are not betting with value, it is IMPOSSIBLE to win in the long run.

Look at it this way: Assume you are playing an efficient market where the closing line is close to the fair line (fair assumption for WC). Now using round numbers, let's say you get +400 on a play that has a fair line of +300 (close to Uruguay).

So, the odds of winning one game are still 3-1 against you, so you will only win one our of four games. BUT, when you do win, you win 4 units, mean you gain +1 unit every 4 plays.

That's why it is absolutely false to say Uruguay had no value just because they lost this particular game.

LT Profits · 07-11-10, 05:51 AM

Originally posted by Jshap1515

I still thought it was good value - lose or win

^^^ This.

diamond · 07-11-10, 05:59 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

^^^ This.

Agree totally with you on the value concept, but depending on the % you give for something to happen, germany could have been value for some.

LT Profits · 07-11-10, 06:10 AM

Originally posted by diamond

Agree totally with you on the value concept, but depending on the % you give for something to happen, germany could have been value for some.

Not if you assume the closing line is close to the fair line. That is precisely why beating the closing line is critical in an efficient market.

Germany only had value if you somehow found a rogue book that had them at -250ish.

diamond · 07-11-10, 06:13 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Not if you assume the closing line is close to the fair line. That is precisely why beating the closing line is critical in an efficient market. Germany only had value if you somehow found a rogue book that had them at -250ish.

Then we have a little bit different opinion on the valueconcept, but I see your point though.

LT Profits · 07-11-10, 06:21 AM

Originally posted by diamond

Then we have a little bit different opinion on the valueconcept, but I see your point though.

I understand that you are more of a pure handicapper that assigns probabilities, and if you win in the long run, more power to you as you would have to be good at it.

u21c3f6 · 07-11-10, 06:42 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Not if you assume the closing line is close to the fair line. That is precisely why beating the closing line is critical in an efficient market.

Germany only had value if you somehow found a rogue book that had them at -250ish.

The problem is that the closing line is close to the fair line over all lines or at least a large enough random sample of lines. The closing line really doesn't say much about one particular event.

Now, in this example, it is very hard to say that a wager that goes from +400 to +300 doesn't have value. However, if I thought the line would move like that, I would hedge despite the fact that many think you are giving up value. The difference is that I would wager at least 10 units (with the expectation of hedging) and when the line moved I could then hedge it for a guaranteed 1 to 2 unit win.

Joe.

LT Profits · 07-11-10, 06:50 AM

Originally posted by u21c3f6

The problem is that the closing line is close to the fair line over all lines or at least a large enough random sample of lines. The closing line really doesn't say much about one particular event.

Now, in this example, it is very hard to say that a wager that goes from +400 to +300 doesn't have value. However, if I thought the line would move like that, I would hedge despite the fact that many think you are giving up value. The difference is that I would wager at least 10 units (with the expectation of hedging) and when the line moved I could then hedge it for a guaranteed 1 to 2 unit win.

Joe.

I get that professional scalpers always try to originate with the intention of buying back later. Me personally, I would rather stick with the advantage for a reasonable unit. Each method has it merits.

I would also like to add that u21c3f6 just may be the most underrated poster at SBR, I never see anything but quality posts from him.

u21c3f6 · 07-11-10, 07:27 AM

LT, thank you for the kind words and please note that I wasn't suggesting that your method was wrong, I was just giving an alternative that I would actually use.
Here's to all of your +400 wagers cashing at a +300 rate!

Joe.