I already said I'm extremely unlucky when i do parlays. it's like I'm being punished for being greedy or something. more likely one of mine won't hit but let's hope it does. Bol
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changed my mind, i have two parlays, one without osters for 0.75u and one with for 0.25uComment -
I'm not even surprised, I'm cursed when it comes to parlays this shit happens 90% of time. Waste of two excelent picks by stemellor
-1u 5/14/2013Comment -
5/14/2013
Arsenal - Wigan -> wigan +1.5;2u @1.875 // 0.25u wigan to win// 0.5u +0.5 wigan
Fukc arsenal,I'm trying to be as objective as I can when choosing picks but in the last 2 years I've never been impressed with arsenal, they are a superstar assembly not a team in my eyes, and its on this that I'm basing my pick not on motivation and on what every team fights for. I'd say the 3 strongest emotions a man faces are fear, love and hope, in this particular order and if wigan wishes to stay in the premier league then prove it, defeat arsenal fight with the fear of being relegated with the love for the premier league and the hope of seeing it again next season.
Live pending play arsenal - wigan -> over 2.5 if line >= 1.8 1u ; both to score if line > 1.95 1uComment -
adding 1u to reading +1.
I despise mancini as a manager, he can't control his superstars and he doesn't have the ability to project respect among his players, and that can be observed...players have no desire to achieve greatness. Everytime is see him on the sideline he's gesticulating like he's about to whip someone. I may be harsh but that's how I see it.Comment -
hes goneComment -
yes mate. city started very well but now gone to sleep.Comment -
everything was flooded with ferguson's retirement that I honestly didn't see that. Reading about it now. I woudn't have taken reading +1 if I knew this. My bad, oh well let's see how this ends.Comment -
-3.75u 14/5/2013
Too bad I never got the chance to grab the over 2.5 line. Not much action these days with the season coming to an end, and Im forced to play games I'd otherwise stay away from.
Not soccer related but I'm playing the spurs -7 tonight ;3u.Comment -
Scary bet imo, warriors have managed to keep every game they playrd this playoffs close, win or lose.. ive bet against them a couple of times these playoffs and everytime you think youre about to cover the spread curry and klay hit some 3's and cover lol
Any factors youve considered for this bet? This series has been surprising to me. Spurs are having alot of trouble scoring and Curry and Klay are shooting the lights outComment -
Scares me too. Warriors have burnt me a couple of times already in the playoffs. Think I'm out of NBA until the regular season now. Bol though John, think it depend on how Steph's ankle holds up.Comment -
Is this any good, i dont follow nba unless theres nothing else on tv:
Tim Duncan to score 22 points or more and the Spurs to win @ 13/8 (+163)??Comment -
yeah they do random specials like this for football. a lot win its funny.
Basketball i tried 2 so far win 1 lose win.
This guy points per game just under 20 so i think the "line" would be 19.5???
this is on their site but i dont think just points is:10/11
Under (35.5)10/11
Over (35.5)
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Just checked the line on Pinnacle and Duncan is o/u 19.5. He's well capable of 22 though.Comment -
didn't overthink it this time. Curry is on fire but my guts tell me he's going to be put out. It's the playoffs anything can happen but I'm taking the spursComment -
John I think u may be on the money. Public perception is already set on the fact that warriors are the better team. Very odd that vegas would set the line*so*high. Vegas probably knows that spurs are winning tonight by more than 7. Ill take spurs once the line lowers, given that a lot ppl will be on golden stateComment -
good call John! $$$Comment -
Very good call John. Easy money in the end.
I should have had the bottle to take Tony Parker over 23 as well.Comment -
Thanks guys, yeah good game.
I'm not adding the nba profit to yesterday's balance, I'll keep this thread soccer only.
15/5/2013
I'm in agreement with stemellor that kaizer chiefs will draw. h2h with kaizer playing at home suggest this draw should be priced at 13 but we'll see. Not much to say about this game, positions of both teams in the league is known, so I'll go with the 'unstoppable force meets immovable object' theory. 1u @3.4
Benfica -Chelsea -> 3u chelsea dnb @1.88. Bet365 has chelsea to lift the trophy at 1.75, but that's bs, extra time is risky and is a narrow window of opportunities, anything can happen, and if it reaches the penalties then it's just a gamble.
All I can say is chelsea is mentally stronger, that's all. Physically benfica is in better form, sure they are tired after the derby but chelsea's been fighting the top league teams for weeks. Player-wise: I'd give a slight edge to benfica as well, chelsea with better defense, more experienced while benfica has the likes of Pereira who is, well...a special kid. The ones that scare me are matic and gaitan, if someone will create problems I believe it will be these two. In attack...hard to say, I'm unimpressed with cardozo, I could compare him to ibrahimovic, lethal no doubt but lazy and slow. I also expect both teams to score, odds are high on this one, and benfica is a bull, they have what it takes to score, if they decide today to play the cow game and let themselves be milked then chelsea will win.
So again, 3u chelsea dnb //2u both to score.
edit : adding 0.25u david luiz to score anytime and matic to score anytime both @ 8.00Comment -
This is how a day should look like. All i have to say is arthur moraes had to be on the world's best known cocaine to let such a ball slip through.
Summary 5/15/2013
+6.49
Late night play : boston red sox to win : 2u@2.1
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NBA
adding okc -3 1st half, 1.5u.
Quick look at tomorrow's games:
I'll do my belgian duty and give some opinions about the playoff games:
Lokeren - Anderlecht -> absolutely no value on anderlecht, they could win 3-0 and I woudn't be convinced. Lokeren is a strong nut to crack. Staying far away from this game. Only live possibilities are if lokeren scores first, then there might be value on 2x.
Waregem - Club brugge -> Going big on club brugge. Waregem are young and eager to prove themselves, extremely ambitious and with superb results. But the dance ends tomorrow, lestienne and bacca outpower leye and berrier, with strong support from gudjohnsen and vasquez, experience will be shown, and if a time ever came that a team with desire chokes, that time has come. Big waregem fan, really impressed with their performance, no one can rob them of that, but they will be robed of their crown.
Genk -standard -> value is on genk, solid team, but not at these odds. Staying away no matter what happens.
Good possibilities in the tippeligaen, I'll make a writeup tomorrow, there certainly is value.
Eerste divisie -> volendam plays the best football in that league, and at those odds I dont see why I would not take them.
I'll revisit the plays tomorrow, this is a rough view at the games.Comment -
I am also interested in the Tippeligaen tomorrow, can't make my mind up on a Lillestrom win though, might wait to bet in-play, but think Haugesund +1 has value and maybe Brann win because they have a great home record atmComment -
Found out yesterday how important is westbrook, found it the hard way, cost me my boston red sox profit. Still, not a bad day.
5/16/2013
I'll start with the danish liga.
Brondby - Nordsjaelland -> Brondby to be relegated would be a major upset. I'm going with brondby to win here, I dont see them risking a draw, being then forced to win away at horsens. Nordjaelland without big guns Norstrand , Joshua john, bringing in some reserves as well. Brondy full squad. Brondby -0.5; 2.5u
Esbjerg - Odense. If I'm right this will be the best trap the books have set, something is way off here. I'm staying away from this game, I know a lot of folks here are on home win so I do hope I'm wrong. No bet
Randers - Fc copenhaga. The league leaders seem to be bored and uninterested, at least that's what I saw at their home defeat to esbjerg. Maybe they will release their frustration today at randers just to prove a point but I have my doubts. Taking Randers +0.25; 1.25u
Belgium.
Club brugge +0; 2.5u. I already did some writeup on this game, my angle has not changed. Odds on the over are too low, but I'll play the over 2.5 for 1,5u live if the line > 1.85.
I'll just put this here so I can laugh later at my stupidity, I might even bold it and apply a red layer -> Lokeren +1.25; 1u. Anderlecht will chase these poor bastards all over the field, I'm not delusional, but if they go with Suarez and Mbokani and no De Sutter to sustain all that firepower, Lokeren could score on counters.
Genk - Standard. Genk is my team and Standard is my archenemy, but I can't give an honest and objective opinion. Profit-wise I do hope Standard scores, so I might play a -0.5 live. But, no bet.
@Akatana. Yes good odds on dnb brugge. But make no mistake, I'm very confident about my pick, I'll take this bet 8/10, and if waregem puts a 3-0 performance, nothing would change for me, I'm expecting nothing and everything.
I mean, did you see Brugge's lineup? Check it out who they will be facing today
I'll add Holland and Norway later.Comment -
BOL with these today. I went to sleep at the bottom of the second in the Red Sox game. All in the action in the third, oh well! Yeah, Westbrook seems to get stick about being greedy etc. Not from me, he's immense and this just proves it. Also, you've got took look at the trade of Harden as well. If they had kept him they would have beaten the Grizzlies imo.Comment -
Norway:
Lillestorm - Sandness -> Sandness -0.5 @3.4; 1.5u. Huge missings for lillestorm, especially defenders, and their away trashing at aelesund reflected that. Adding specials : Own goal -> yes @11, 0.15u // Helstad anytime goal scorer, 0.8u @ 2.75 // Thorsteinsson anytime goalscorer 0.5u @ 4.5.
Brann over 2.5 -> I like this bet a lot. Problem is, the line is set at 1.6, will wait live for >1.9. I have this golden rule when it comes to overs, I never bet on more than over 2.5, not even 2.75; for me the over 2.5 is a defensive bet, where I consider a side to be a favorite but with a degree of uncertainty, where I hope they score 2 goals and might receive 1 or more. Going over 3.5 is for me an amateur style of bet, where you leave too much for chance, where you're not aiming for anything specific. I use the over 2.5 in games I strongly believe the away team ( generally ) scores and I doubt the favorite team is qualified for a -0.5 in play bet. With that being said I do bet a lot of overs, but again, my approach is a defensive style of bet.
Stromsgodset. Aiming for a live play, trying to grab the -1.25 line as opposed to the -1.5 line that is available now.
Elverum - Mjondalen -> away win @1.9, 2u. Elverum newly promoted side lost their top goalscorer Mendy to Kristiansund, while the away team is a promotion favorite. Expecting an away win here.Comment -
Do you happen to be Mightye? Anyways I like your picks!! GL manComment -
LOL is that the waregem line-up? sexyFound out yesterday how important is westbrook, found it the hard way, cost me my boston red sox profit. Still, not a bad day.
5/16/2013
I'll start with the danish liga.
Brondby - Nordsjaelland -> Brondby to be relegated would be a major upset. I'm going with brondby to win here, I dont see them risking a draw, being then forced to win away at horsens. Nordjaelland without big guns Norstrand , Joshua john, bringing in some reserves as well. Brondy full squad. Brondby -0.5; 2.5u
Esbjerg - Odense. If I'm right this will be the best trap the books have set, something is way off here. I'm staying away from this game, I know a lot of folks here are on home win so I do hope I'm wrong. No bet
Randers - Fc copenhaga. The league leaders seem to be bored and uninterested, at least that's what I saw at their home defeat to esbjerg. Maybe they will release their frustration today at randers just to prove a point but I have my doubts. Taking Randers +0.25; 1.25u
Belgium.
Club brugge +0; 2.5u. I already did some writeup on this game, my angle has not changed. Odds on the over are too low, but I'll play the over 2.5 for 1,5u live if the line > 1.85.
I'll just put this here so I can laugh later at my stupidity, I might even bold it and apply a red layer -> Lokeren +1.25; 1u. Anderlecht will chase these poor bastards all over the field, I'm not delusional, but if they go with Suarez and Mbokani and no De Sutter to sustain all that firepower, Lokeren could score on counters.
Genk - Standard. Genk is my team and Standard is my archenemy, but I can't give an honest and objective opinion. Profit-wise I do hope Standard scores, so I might play a -0.5 live. But, no bet.
@Akatana. Yes good odds on dnb brugge. But make no mistake, I'm very confident about my pick, I'll take this bet 8/10, and if waregem puts a 3-0 performance, nothing would change for me, I'm expecting nothing and everything.
I mean, did you see Brugge's lineup? Check it out who they will be facing today
I'll add Holland and Norway later.
I'm going big on brugge BOL. Come on Brugge
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I am not Mightye, I am however a huge fan of the man's work and I always check his plays and would never dare go against him, after all, norway is his playground.
BOL to both of us akatana, never fukc with the goosesComment
Thanks for the points man. 
