Drama's picks

[Johndrama]

Hello gentlemen, I'm John from belgium, been a gambler for 3 years now ( feels like some gambler anonymous meeting )and I've never noted my picks anywhere so I think its time to do that so I can keep a track on them and maybe improve my discipline and overall improve myself.

Bankroll management : System based on 100 units, bets varying from 1 to 5 units depending on strength

How my system works : I found out that I can extract the most value by betting live and so far it was the most profitable way for me. I put my eyes pregame on some games and then bet on them live where I can observe how the game is played, chances, morale, etc.

90% of my games are played live, except unders and positive handicaps ( i.e +0.25, +0.5 on a given team ) that will lose its value live.
I always do my homework, research the teams I bet on and base my picks on probability versus given odds, statistics and sometimes in-form status.

I usually like to exploit goods odds when the probability for that team to win is high. Let me give you an example: Yesterday chelsea vs basel, I consider the line -0.75 @ 1.95 ( minute 24 ) to be good value, a bet I would take. Now when and if basel scores ( like it happened ) the line -1 @ 2.02 is the kinda bet I stalk.


Now onto the picks. I will write in this thread the picks I'm considering taking, the line I'm considering taking and most importantly the line and odds I'm waiting for live.

5/3/2013.

Steau Bucuresti - Pandurii. Currently the line would be -1 @ 1.8 -> awaiting either -0.75 @1.8 or -1 @ 2.00. 2 units

Excelsior - Cambuur. Considering taking the over and Cambuur to win -> awaiting odds for the over 2.75 @ 1.8+ and the -0.75 line to be at evens. 1.5 units each

Celta Vigo -Bilbao. Over 1.5 @1.8+ if I will be able to take it. 1.5 units

None of these bets have yet been taken, awaiting line movements live; may or may not take.
The following bets have already been placed.

Chateauroux - Nimes. I do not see Nimes winning this round. Laying 0.5 units on Chateauroux and 0.5 units on Draw. Both @ 3.00.

Waregem - Genk. This is a bad bet but I like to reward myself with bets like these from time to time. Putting 1 unit on draw @ 3.5

Not writing any thoughts on these, unless asked.

[stemellor]

Interesting. There's lots of money to be made with this approach if you know what you are doing.

Do you watch the games live that you are betting in-play, or do you just watch for pre-determined opportunities in the market to exploit?

[Johndrama]

Interesting. There's lots of money to be made with this approach if you know what you are doing.

Do you watch the games live that you are betting in-play, or do you just watch for pre-determined opportunities in the market to exploit?

I'd say a little of both.

Steaua bucuresti - Pandurii. Steaua scored, bet is off the table, unless they are equalised, but unfortunately I have to leave and I won't be here if that happens.

[Johndrama]

*adding:

Sedan +0.25 @2.02. 1 unit

*pending:

Malmo -0.75 if line >1.8 // -0.5 if line >=1.8. Malmo scored. Play no longer available.

*adding :

+0.25 @ 1.975 G.A Eagles .Min 14'. 1 unit

over 2.75 @ 1.85 Excelsior -Cambuur. 1.5 units min 24'

Cambuur -1 is no longer a play, only the over above mentioned.

Adding min 42' Moenchengladbach -Schalke -> +0.25 @1.85 1 unit

Adding min 36' Korona Kielce -0.5 @ 1.975 2 units ( current score 0-1 )

Adding Excelsior -Cambuur over 1.75 @1.9 1.5 units min 73' ( current score 0-1 )

Plzen -0.5 min 77' @2.00 ( score 2-2 ) 1 unit

Adding a big play on both to score - Yes @ 1.85 3 units ( Celta vigo -Bilbao , current score 0-1 ) min 53

Forgot to add stemellor's play grodig -0.75 @ 1.95 1unit

I'll constantly update this post so I won't spam the thread

[Johndrama]

5/3/2013 Summary of plays :

1.Chateauroux - Nimes. I do not see Nimes winning this round. Laying 0.5 units on Chateauroux and 0.5 units on Draw. Both @ 3.00. win and loss -> 0.5 units won

2.Waregem - Genk. 1 unit on draw . -> 1 unit lost

3.Sedan +0.25 @2.02. 1 unit -> 1unit lost

4.+0.25 @ 1.975 G.A Eagles .Min 14'. 1 unit -> 0.975 units won

5.over 2.75 @ 1.85 Excelsior -Cambuur. 1.5 units min 24' -> 1.5 units lost

6.Moenchengladbach -Schalke -> +0.25 @1.85 1 unit -> 1 unit lost

7.Korona Kielce -0.5 @ 1.975 2 units ( current score 0-1 ) -> 1.95 units won

8.Excelsior -Cambuur over 1.75 @1.9 1.5 units min 73' ( current score 0-1 ) -> 0.7 units won

9.Plzen -0.5 min 77' @2.00 ( score 2-2 ) 1 unit -> 1 unit won

10.Adding a big play on both to score - Yes @ 1.85 3 units ( Celta vigo -Bilbao , current score 0-1 ) min 53-> 2.55 units won

11.grodig -0.75 @ 1.95 1unit -> 0.5 units won

Total: +3.675 units

[Johndrama]

I usually incorporate a martingale betting system on duplicate bets, for example I bet twice on the excelsior - cambuur game, once on the over 2.75 line and then on the over 1.75, but I did them for 1 unit each I should've gone 1 unit and then 2 units for the over 1.75.

Horrible mistake with the schalke game, don't know why I picked it, it was late ~min 41 I think, there was no value left - if there was any to begin with

[tttl]

nice job

[stemellor]

Very promising start.

[Johndrama]

Alright, got home late today, wanted to do some writeups but I'll have to hurry it's already d-day.

Stabaek- Bryne -> +0.25 bryne @2.00 min 26' ( score 0-0 ) 1 unit.

Norwich- Villa -> taking the draw and Villa to win at 1 unit each, I regard Villa being a better team and they impressed me even vs united's 3-0 defeat.

That's all for now, the rest I'll add later

[Johndrama]

5/4/2013 In-Play post:

Novara-bari ( 0 - 1 ) min 56' -> -0.25 @1.825 ; 1unit

min 76' score 1-1 -> shakhtar -0.25 @ 2.5 ; 0.5 units

stuttgart min 69 ( 0 - 1 ) -0.25 @ 1.85; 1u

CST severin - Petrolul Ploiesti ( 1 - 1 ) min 72 ; over 2.5 @ 2.00 1u. EDIT: ROFL placed the bet, came to type , back to check the game, they scored.

Wanted to play the over 2.5 in the arsenal game, pity they scored so fast

[stemellor]

Good luck with these today

[Johndrama]

Good luck with these today

thanks, you too, gl with your austrian play

[stemellor]

thanks, you too, gl with your austrian play

Thanks. Bit nervous about that now. Over thinking!

[Johndrama]

real madrid : over 4,4.5 min 19 ( 0 - 1 ) @1.975, 2u

real madrid -2 @ 1.92 ( 0 - 1 ) min 23, 3u

adding : st gallen -0.25 min 44 ( 0-1 ) @1.8, 1u / / st gallen to win @ 5.5 0.3u

unreal game at lille, wanted to play the over 1.5 high stakes but they scored too soon, had high confidence on that play.

fiorentina - roma min 63 (0-0) over 1 goal @1.9 ->1u

[stemellor]

Nice work with st gallen mate. They were a lean for me today. Last time I played them I lost 5u though!

[Johndrama]

Nice work with st gallen mate. They were a lean for me today. Last time I played them I lost 5u though!

Yeah....I was on them too at their 2-1 defeat to zurich, glad this time they pulled through

[Johndrama]

5/4/2013 Summary of plays :

Stabaek- Bryne -> +0.25 bryne @2.00 min 26' ( score 0-0 ) 1 unit. -> won +0.5 units

Norwich- Villa -> taking the draw and Villa to win at 1 unit each, I regard Villa being a better team and they impressed me even vs united's 3-0 defeat. -> Villa won at 3 odds -> won +1 unit

Novara-bari ( 0 - 1 ) min 56' -> -0.25 @1.825 ; 1unit -> loss -0.5 units

min 76' score 1-1 -> shakhtar -0.25 @ 2.5 ; 0.5 units -> loss -0.25 units

stuttgart min 69 ( 0 - 1 ) -0.25 @ 1.85; 1u -> loss -1unit

CST severin - Petrolul Ploiesti ( 1 - 1 ) min 72 ; over 2.5 @ 2.00 1u -> won 1 unit

real madrid : over 4,4.5 min 19 ( 0 - 1 ) @1.975, 2u -> won 1.95 units

real madrid -2 @ 1.92 ( 0 - 1 ) min 23, 3u -> draw +-0

adding : st gallen -0.25 min 44 ( 0-1 ) @1.8, 1u / / st gallen to win @ 5.5 0.3u -> won 0.8units // won 1.35units

fiorentina - roma min 63 (0-0) over 1 goal @1.9 ->1u -> draw


Total for today : +5.1 units

[stemellor]

Great day!

[Johndrama]

5/5/2013:

Roda +0.25 @1.97 min 7' (0-0) 1u-> as I'm writing this its min14' and they lead 0-1 but coudn't post the play...was camping the vitesse game and the odds were locked.

(Current Score 1-0) Vitesse 0.0,-0.5

RKC v Vitesse

testing how it would look if i copy paste....2u on this play min 13

adding : Vitesse to win @4.75 min 24' (1-0)->1u

(Current Score 0-1) Ross County 0.0,+0.5

Ross County v Celtic

min 10' ; 1u

[Johndrama]

Huge day, have a lot of action.

I have my eyes on nice, thinking about the dnb, ac milan to cover the handicap, palermo on the ah; some bundesliga plays and many more

Adding:

Nice 0.0

Rennes v Nice

1.5units

min 75' psv ( 2-2 ) -0.5 @ 2.00 0.5u

Roda throwing a 3-1 lead...aight

Palermo +1.5 -@1.925 -> 0.7 units

Augsburg +0.25 @ 2.1 -> 1u

(Current Score 1-0) Tampines Rovers 0.0,-0.5

Tanjong Pagar United v Tampines Rovers

@ 2.02 1u

(Current Score 0-0) AC Milan -1.0

AC Milan v Torino

2u@ 1.92 min40'

Legia Warsaw v Lechia Gdansk -0.75@ 1.95 1u

[Johndrama]

Ok, unimpressive start today. Let's have another shot

Wolfsburg 0 @ 1.925 2u
Olic anytime goal scorer 0.5u @2.6 // first goalscorer 0.1u@7.5

zaragoza -0.25 min 19; 1u@1.95

man u- chelsea over 2 @ 1.85 min 23' 2u

ifk marienhamn -0.25 @1.925 1u min 33

going down with the ship -> over 0.5 @ man u, 1u @ 1.85

antalyaspor - akhisar belediye -> +0 akhisar @2, 0.5u

0.5 u draw kristiansund min50'

1u -0.25 club brugge @ 1.95 min69 (1-1)


Barcelona-betis : molina anytime goal scorer @ 4 0.25u // castro anytime @3.1 0.3u
1u betis +2

1u pacos ferreira +0 @2.00

ferreira match -> over 2.0 goals @ 2.00 1u min 18' (0-0)

2u PSG -0.5@1.9 ( half-time 0-1)

[Johndrama]

man....didnt even get to write it, took barca -1 @1.7 ( 2-2 ) for 1.5u the sec i saw messi coming in. Should've taken -1.5 when it was 1-2 @ even, those odds were too good.

all aboard the pain train....

[Johndrama]

Summary of plays 5/5/2013:

Roda +0.25 @1.97 min 7' (0-0) 1u-> loss -1

Vitesse 0.0,-0.5-> loss -1

Vitesse to win @4.75 min 24' (1-0)->1u -> loss -1

(Current Score 0-1) Ross County 0.0,+0.5 -> win +1

Nice 0.0 1.5u -> win +1.5

in 75' psv ( 2-2 ) -0.5 @ 2.00 0.5u -> win +0.5

Palermo +1.5 -@1.925 -> 0.7 units -> win +0.7

Augsburg +0.25 @ 2.1 -> 1u -> loss -1

tampines -0.25 -> loss -0.5

ac milan -1 -> draw +-0

Legia Warsaw v Lechia Gdansk -0.75@ 1.95 1u -> win +0.5

Wolfsburg 0 @ 1.925 2u
Olic anytime goal scorer 0.5u @2.6 // first goalscorer 0.1u@7.5 -> loss -0.6u

zaragoza -0.25 min 19; 1u@1.95 -> won +1

man u- chelsea over 2 @ 1.85 min 23' 2u -> lost -2

ifk marienhamn -0.25 @1.925 1u min 33 -> loss -0.5

over 0.5 @ man u, 1u @ 1.85 -> won +0.85

antalyaspor - akhisar belediye -> +0 akhisar @2, 0.5u -> loss -0.5

0.5 u draw kristiansund min50' -> loss -0.5

1u -0.25 club brugge @ 1.95 min69 (1-1) -> won +1

Barcelona-betis : molina anytime goal scorer @ 4 0.25u // castro anytime @3.1 0.3u -> loss -0.55

1u betis +2 -> draw +-0

1u pacos ferreira +0 @2.00 -> won +1

ferreira match -> over 2.0 goals @ 2.00 1u min 18' (0-0) -> lost -1

2u PSG -0.5@1.9 ( half-time 0-1) -> won +1.8

barca -1 @1.7 ( 2-2 ) for 1.5u -> won +1

Total : +0.3 units.

Hmm, might have calculated bad, I sure am more in profit, had a little play on baseball and some live play on milan and some garbage plays that lost and won that I didn't bother writing here.

Some thoughts ....did not have patience today, some plays were rushed like the singaporean play and the live draw ( was of frustration, wanted to play the winner ) and I missed value on barcelona, even though I had betis +2, that play right there was more favorable.

Overall ....disappointing day, especially the vitesse game, that created a lot of the frustration. I'll edit to colour the wins/losses.

[tttl]

in fact, you deliver a great job,
i myself can never concentrate on those matches you mentioned,
i am usually exhausted after 2 hours paying attention to the live score status,
needless to say to react quickly to place a bet, and for you even more, because you put it in the forum

one suggestion is that maybe you could put a number in front of each bet while editing,
it would be easier for us as reader

[Johndrama]

thanks for the suggestion, will try to make it easier, I know that's a problem, that + the time stamp, bet365's in-game clock is not synchronized with flashscore's time and it appears that I've placed a bet after a goal or an event; and it happens at least once a day during those 65'+ where the bet is an extra goal or something similar.

[stemellor]

Decent day still. Strange sometimes. I made a loss on my picks today, but felt I played the markets better than the day before where I made a profit.
Glad you made money on the Warsaw game.

[Johndrama]

6/5/2013

Not seeing too much value today, so I'm going for two 1u parlays; I rarely do parlays because I have terrible luck with them but today its just the way to go.

Sunderland - Stoke -> I'm hoping the 'new manager effect' hasnt worn off since that defeat to aston villa so I think sunderland could grab at least a point today. Stoke were very good last season vs premium teams like utd, arsenal etc and rather poor vs weak teams so I'm hoping today is day where they disappoint.

Getafe - Sociedad -> I consider getafe to be a better away team than a home team, and sociedad are just in too good of a form to bet against them.

So i'm taking these 2 teams in a parlay (dnb) + nantes and braunschweig.

1. Sociedad (+0) + Sunderland (+0) + Braunschweig (+0) ->1u@ 3.26

2. Sociedad (+0) + Braunschweig (+0) + Nantes -> 1u@ 3.15

[onemoregoal]

You dont fancy the Benfica game?

[Johndrama]

You dont fancy the Benfica game?

hmm, super saturated odds....if the books will be so generous to give me the -1.5 ah live at good odds then there might be some value. Will wait and see what the portuguese prophet easypicks will do

[Vaughany]

6/5/2013

Not seeing too much value today, so I'm going for two 1u parlays; I rarely do parlays because I have terrible luck with them but today its just the way to go.

Sunderland - Stoke -> I'm hoping the 'new manager effect' hasnt worn off since that defeat to aston villa so I think sunderland could grab at least a point today. Stoke were very good last season vs premium teams like utd, arsenal etc and rather poor vs weak teams so I'm hoping today is day where they disappoint.

Getafe - Sociedad -> I consider getafe to be a better away team than a home team, and sociedad are just in too good of a form to bet against them.

So i'm taking these 2 teams in a parlay (dnb) + nantes and braunschweig.

1. Sociedad (+0) + Sunderland (+0) + Braunschweig (+0) ->1u@ 3.26

2. Sociedad (+0) + Braunschweig (+0) + Nantes -> 1u@ 3.15

Why do you consider Getafe to be better away than at home? They've collected 28 points at home, and only 16 points away?

[Johndrama]

they certainly are better at home points wise, but I found them to be mentally stronger away. Still...they are an inconsistent team, maybe i didnt express myself correctly when saying they are better away but I'd rather take sociedad at these odds and away than take them home at lower odds where getafe might decide to prove a point.

[Johndrama]

*adding sunderland -0.25 + sociedad +0-> 0.5u@ 3.1

Tailing easypicks on this one :

1. min5' (0-0) benfica -1.75@ 1.92;2u

2. min 18' (0-0) 1st half over 0.75 @ 1.95; 1u

3. min58' (0-1) nantes -0.5 @ 1.85; 3u

[Johndrama]

5u benfica -0.75 min65' (0-1)

[Johndrama]

2u benfica -0.5 ( 1-1) min 72 @ 1.975

[Johndrama]

3u sociedad -0.25 @ 1.9 ( 2-1 ), half-time bet