hey dont worry. my parlay still running though. hope i win this time
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btw nice parlay jesse!
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Really nice there especially with the draws! really wowed meComment -
Ok guys, a pretty great night last night i would say, with some luck going our way too as Goias got a very late goal to cash both our moneyline bet and over bet on that game.
All serie A bets cashed including 2 draws for half a unit each
Total for last night +4,61 units
Thread total + 9,9 units
7 Serie A games going on later, i'll look them in a couple of hours and post the plays i find valuable.
Cheers and best of luckComment -
hey buddy, sorry drank a little to much celebrating that early parlay and passed out, was liking melb at the time though but fell asleep ha ha
So glad to see you hit your parlay, about to post a spain serie b parlay that i have researched a lot and really like, hopefuly the fire continues!Comment -
Hey Silva real nice hits yesterday, glad your forum is doing real well!
I was watching that goias goal in extra time and that was so awesome and cashed a big parlay for me and glad it hit for you as well!
Look forward to your post today bc im sure to lose some money in the nfl early in the day ha ha
Good luck to everyone today!Comment -
Good luck today Silvap another big card!Comment -
Hey guys, another sunday of action in Brazil's top division that is now entering it's decisive stage going into the last 9 games.
Here is where i found some value:
Santos vs Vasco da Gama - 0.5 units on Draw (3.28) - Draws worked really well for us last night, nailing both in the head. Can't expect to keep such a pace but this games looks a good spot to try it again. Santos won their last game, but they are still not to be trusted, especially with Neymar not playing (national team duties). They are also the team with the most home draws, with 7 in 14 games (!). As for Vasco, they lost their last home game versus Sao Paulo and will be looking to get some points on the road. They will be missing plenty of players, including their ace defender Dédé (also on the national team) and injured Juninho. They have 6 road ties, with is second most in Brazil, including 4 of their last 5.
*Parlay* - São Paulo ml (vs Figueirense) / Atlético Mineiro ml (vs Sport Recife) / Fluminense ml (vs Ponte Preta) - 1 unit pays about 1.4 units. - Trying something i rarely do in Brazil as it is a particularly though league to play parlays. Taking 3 home teams with excelent home records all playing bellow average teams. São Paulo has been amazing at home, with the second best home record and winning all their 10 games versus teams ranked 8th or bellow. At 19th with 10 away losses in 14 games, Figueirense should pose no threat to São Paulo, who will be without Lucas on national team duties but who should still have more than enough fire-power to take this one. / Atlético is probably the one that worries me a little. They have struggled some lately, including a big 3-0 away loss to Internacional in their last game. They do however still have the top home record in Brazil, winning 11 of 14 in their home court. With Ronaldinho back, who missed the Internacional match, they should get back to the form that crushed their last home opponent, Figueirense, by 6-0. Recife is 17th overall and 18th in the away standings, having lost 6 of their lat 8 on the road./ Fluminense has been on an absolut roll in Brazil. They lead the league, with 9 points clear of Gremio and Atletico Mineiro and won 7 of their last 8 overall games. Even without Thiago Neves (international team) and Deco (suspended), Flu still has their super potent offense of Wellington Nem, Rafael Sobis and striker Fred. Don't think they will let the foot of the pedal now that they have some points off their opponents, as their next two games will have them facing their chasers in Gremio and Atletico Mineiro, so they are very aware of the need to get all 3 points here and keep that distance going into those two though though games. Tonight they face Ponte Preta, who finally won a game with the new coach after seeing their previous one leave to Palmeiras. That win was a 2-1 turn-around at home versus Náutico, the worst away team in the league, which snapped a 6 game win-less streak that i believe will start again tonight, as they should be way out-classed against probable champions Fluminense.
Fluminense vs Ponte Preta - Over 2.5 goals (1.95) - Fluminense has a 50-50 record at home on over and under 2.5. However, if we look at their games vs teams in similar position to Ponte Preta (10th to 16th, as Ponte is 13th), we notice they went over in 4 of 5 games. Also, Ponte Preta's away matches have gone over 64% of the time, including an impressive 7 of 8 times when they play teams in top half of the standings. In those 8 matches, they were only held scoreless once while conceding in every single one of them, showing they will contribute on both ends.
Coritiba vs Bahia +1 (1.87) - Being conservative here after debating taking the draw at 4.04, which are pretty good odds. Coritiba will be missing lots of players (8 in total). Despite winning their last 2, i don't really consider them a strong team (15th overall) who will crush opponents. Bahia is one of the better teams in this second half of the season and are coming from a loss to Fluminense, in a game they posed a lot of problems to the league leaders. Bahia actually has a great away record considering they overall position (16th overall and 8th away). They have also only lost one game all season to teams in the bottom half of the standings, a 1-0 loss to Náutico, who actually have the 4th best home record in Brazil. From where i stand, a multiple goal loss to Bahia is very unlikely, and i actually think the draw is a very plausible scenario.
Coritiba vs Bahia - Under 2.5 goals (1.98) - Although Coritiba trends on the over at home (57% of their home matches had 3 or more goals), their 6 home games versus teams in the bottom half of the standings are split evenly at 3 overs and 3 unders. On the other hand, Bahia not only trends under on away games (57% on unders), but more importantly, every single one of their 6 matches versus teams in the bottom half went under.
Náutico -0.5 vs Palmeiras (1.83) - Despite being on the bottom half of the standings at 11th, Náutico is a terrific home team, 4th best in the home standings, with 10 wins in 14 matches, including 7 of their last 8. As for Palmeiras, they are pretty bad on the road 17th on the road standings and 18th overall, losing 11 of 14, including 6 of last 7. After showing some fire with new coach, they have reverted back to their losing ways. If that was not enough, they are missing most of the few good players they have - Barcos is on national team duties, Daniel Carvalho is suspended as well as Mauricio Ramos and Valdivia is injured.
Those are the plays for tonight, best of luck to you all as always, cheersComment -
Whooshhh! What a late goal! For atletico!Comment -
Silvap...excellent analysis & insights..Fluminese now 2-1 & the 2-1 win on Athletico Mineiro was amazing..will keep tailing & many thx..keep it up bro!Comment -
Well guys, i gotta say we certainly have been fortunate and pretty lucky in some spots these days, Atletico Mineiro and Fluminense both turning their games around and winning in the last minutes.
Ending this sunday of Brazil action with +1.68 units here, cashing our parlay, Naútico and Fluminense over bets, losing on our draw and coritiba under and pushing the Bahia +1 bet.
Thread total now stands at +11,68
No games tomorrow but Serie B with a full card on tuesday.
Cheers and best of luck on your plays.Comment -
Awesome work in here silvap, cheers.Comment -
Two plays for the earlier game in Brazil B tonight. Will look into the later games in a few hours and post what i find. For now, i have:
Atlético PR -0.5 vs Avaí (1.76) - 5th ranked Atletico PR hosts 7th Avaí for this game. Atlético is just 1 point from 4th place (top 4 get promoted to Serie A, Brazil's top league). Avaí's 7th place in the league is almost solely based on their brilliant home campaign (2nd best at home), as they are a pretty bad road team - only 15th, with 9 losses in 14 games. Also, Avaí has lost all their 7 game vs teams in the top half of the standings. Atlético, on the other hand, has won 6 of their last 7 at home.
Atlético PR vs Avaí - Under 2.5 goals (1.9) - Atlético has been on some scoring games of late, but still only 43% of their home games have gone over, and, more importantly, only 2 of 7 versus teams in the top half of the standings. Avaí on the road is the king of the under, with 86% (!) of their games having less than 2.5 goals, including all of their 7 against the top half teams.
Two plays for this earlier game in about 2 hours, probably more to come on the later ones as there is a full card of games in Brazil B tonight.
best of luck on your plays. cheersComment -
nice! waiting for this!Comment -
I like PR as well
Waiting for my book to put up Totals before I dig deeper, but BOL today!Comment -
damnsss. atletico and honduras are the only games i win tonight! looking forward to your updates!
had enuff with world cup @#$%Comment -
Atlético wins 3-1 so we win our moneyline and lose our under, paying the juice and going into the rest of the games down 0.25 units for the day.
Here's what i like for tonight:
*Paylay - Cricíuma ml/ Vitória ml / Goias ml - 1 unit pays about 2.2 units* - Trying out another parlay after our (lucky) hit last weekend in Serie A. Taking the top 3 in the league, all playing at home all playing versus teams ranked 14th or bellow. All need the points to consolidate their spots in the top4 that get promoted.
Goias vs Guarani - Under 2.5 goals (1.83) - Two under teams playing here, with Goias at an impressive 86% of home games going under, including all their games versus teams ranked 7th and bellow, they have great defense, allowing only two goals in those 10 games. Guarani also trends under, at 64% of their away games having less than 2.5, including 5 of 7 against teams in the top half. Even with the juice, there's value here.
São Caetano vs Ceára - Under 2.5/3 goals (1.877) - One of those spots where i feel we either get a full win or a half-push the vast majority of the time. São Caeatano's home games have gone under 2.5 an impressive 71% of the time, including 5 of 6 versus teams in the top half (where Ceára sits at 8th). Also, only twice in 14 games have they had more than 3 goals. As for Ceára, they do have 57% of overs on the road, but only 50% of their games vs top half teams have gone under, and only 3 of 14 road matches have seen more than the 3 goals that would result in a full loss.
Vitória vs ASA - Under 2.5/3 goals (1.87) - A very similar kind of situation from the game above. I feel that for this game to go over, Vitória would have to do all the scoring. Playing at home versus bottom half of the standings teams (ASA is 12th), Vitória has kept a clean sheet 6 times in 9 games. Those 9 games have gone under 2.5 6 times. As for ASA 64% of their away games go under 2.5, including 5 of 7 versus the top half of the standing teams. Only 3 times in 14 away games have there been more than 3 goals.
América RN vs Paraná - Under 2.5 goals (1.95) - Noticed something interesting while looking into this game - Although América is 50-50 on overs and unders, we see that all of their overs were against the top 3 teams and the bottom 6. When playing middle of the table teams - where themselves sit at 9th and Paraná at 11th - all of their games go under. Similarly for Paraná, their road matches against teams ranked 10th to 15th have gone under 4 times in 5 games.
Guaratinguetá vs America Mineiro - 0.5 units on Draw (3.44) - Although these two teams have very few draws in their campaigns, they have been playing very close games, especially against similar oposition. With no team having a particular edge, in my opinion, i'll gladly take the draw, which offers the better price of all 3 outcomes.
Those are my plays for tonight, best of luck on yours.
Tomorrow Serie A has a full slate of games going, will look into them and post what i find.
CheersComment -
silvap
would you take Joinville on a pk line?
I know you mentioned that you were steering away from this game.
Great threadComment -
Do you have any lineup info for the Cricuima match? thanksComment -
hey dk70, i don't think Joinville should lose this game so a pk line sounds safe enough, although we've been warned that they are a poor road team. For me taking a play is a lot about the price one gets and wheter or not i find there is value, so it all comes down to the price you get.
No info on Criciumas line upComment -
Thanks silvap, you're responses helped keep me off Joinville tonight. Autofade on the road for the last four away games??Comment -
Well, we've certainly had our share of late goal winners, so i guess i can't complain about a 90+ minute goal for America to ruin our draw. Would have made it a fantastic night, instead with was just a good night, picking up 1.2 units for the day, cashing our big 3 team parlay and splitting pretty much everything else.
So thread total now stands at + 12.88 units.
Serie A plays a bunch of games later tonight, i'll look into them closely in the afternoon and post the plays i find.
CheersComment -
any thoughts on the games?Comment -
What about an over at the Santos game, I'd get -105, sounds reasonable right?Comment -
Here are my plays for tonight:
Fluminense vs Gremio - 0.5 Units on Draw (3.46)
Fluminense vs Gremio - Under 2.5/3 goals (1.87) - This is the big game of the week, with league leader Fluminense hosting Gremio, 3rd ranked in Brazil's top division. Although Gremio's coach spoke of Gremio playing "eye-to-eye" with Fluminense and going forward to look for the win, i expect this to be a tighter match than the books. Fluminense sits confortably in first, 11 points clear of Gremio and 9 ahead of 2nd place Atletico Mineiro. As much as they would love to win and expand that advantage, they know a loss here hurts them more than a win does them good, so i expect them to start the game somewhat cautiously and trying to keep possesion. Deco is back from suspension for Fluminense. Thiago Neves played yesterday for the Brazil national team, in Poland, but is back and could be available to play, although Wellington Nem is also suspended. For Gremio, Elano is back and Marcelo Moreno, who played for Bolivia's national team, is expected to not be back on time to play. Fluminense has 53% of their home matches going over 2.5 goals, although only 4 in 15 had 4 or more goals, which would mean a full loss on our under. When they played the top 7 teams at home, they have 1 win and 3 draws, with 3 matches going under 2.5. On the road Gremio has 53% of matches going under, including 4 of their last 6. 4 of their last 6 matches overall in league play were also draws.
Internacional -1.5 vs Figueirense (1.98) - Internacional, who have been playing horribly on the road all season, took another tumble last week, with a 3-1 defeat to Atletico Goianiense. Playing back home however, they have been a much better team, beating championship contender Atletico Mineiro by 3-0 in their last one. They have done especially well against the bottom half of the standing teams, where Figueirense stands at 19th, winning 6 of their 7 matches, including 4 by more than one goal. As for Figueirense, they are terrible on the road - 11 losses in 15 matches, including all their last 3 by multiple goals. Missing a lot of key players on injury and almost mathematically relegated, I don't expect Figueirense to put much of a fight here. Last news reports claim Guinazu and Leandro Damiao, who were on their respective national teams, are back and have not been ruled out of the game (should be a game time decision).
Coritiba -1 vs Náutico (1.91) - Náutico has been a very interesting team this season - they have an amazing campaign at home (4th best in the league) and an atrocious road record, dead last in Brazil A, with only 1 win all season , a 1-0 triumph versus bottom the standings Atletico GO. Tonight they play on the road, versus Coritiba, a team that sits 12th with a good home record and coming from 3 straight wins. They have also done very well against the bottom teams, winning 6 of 8 vs teams in the bottom half (although Nautico is only 10th, i'm considering them a bottom half team on the road), winning by multiple goals 4 of those 6 times. One of those cases where we push or win our bet a very high percentage of the time.
Santos vs Atlético Mineiro - over 2.5 goals (1.84) - Surprisingly, Santos had done well in the last couple of games without Neymar, with no losses in their last 4. The superstar is back from national team duties and although potentialy tired, is expected to start for Santos. Atlético will look to take some points knowing that one, or both, of their rivals will lose points as Gremio and Fluminense play eachother. With no key players missing tonight (goalkeeper Victor should also be back from the national team), Atlético's powerfull frontline of Ronaldinho, Jo, Bernard and Escudero should all start.
Cruzeiro vs Corinthias - Under 2.5 goals (1.9) - Two teams that trend under here, Cruzeiro with 53% of their home games going under and Corinthias with 67% on unders. Also, Corinthias missing a total of 12 players and with half their mind already on the World Cup to be played in Japan in December. Cruzeiro should have the edge tonight but their record against top half of the standing teams (not a single win in 7 matches) shows how much they struggle against any sort of decent opposition.
Portuguesa vs Flamengo - Under 2.5 goals (1.91) - Expected this line to be under 2/2.5 instead of straight 2.5 and i am jumping on it. Flamengo on the road has seen 53% of their games go under but the key here is Portuguesa's fantastic home record on unders - 73%! Flamengo's coach is also setting up a more defensive starting eleven, removing Ibson and selecting one more defensive midfielder in order to provide more protection to his defenders.
Those are my plays for tonight, best of luck on yours, cheers!Comment -
is it a good choice to take cruzeiro then?Comment -
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Im laying off Cruzeiro there, thought about taking them, but don't really trust themComment -
sweet SANTOS 0VER CASHESSSSSSSComment
