All-Brazil Thread

[bolek]

$$$ 4-0 night with Wtt overs $$$
Unreal

[naoeneko]

Figueirense fk up my 1st in-play parlay for me in the last few mins ~_~ . LOL.

silvap, it seems to be a daily routine for me to check on your insights whenever there's matches coming up :P. It helps me greatly in making a parlay.

[silvap]

Recap of the day:

No goals for 55 minutes in the Fluminense game and then 3 in 7 minutes. Fortunately the 4th goal, which ruined our under, also got Gremio the tie so we actually profited a little from that game

Coritiba up 2-0 for most of the game and then concedes a goal on the 88th minute, which is meaningless for them but turns what would have been a win into a push. Oh well.

Internacional continues to show they cannot be trusted at all - after being up 1-0 and 2-1 they somehow managed to lose to Figueirense, one of the worst teams in Brazil.

In the late games everything went our way - the Santos over cashed in like 20 minutes, with the first goal being scored with 19 seconds. Cruzeiro won 2-0 and cashed our under there, guess we could have taken them to win but was not too sure they'd show up so prefered to lay off and just take the under.

As for Portuguesa i only regret not making it a 1.5 or 2 unit play as i considered for a while before playing it safe on what was already a big card. The king of the home unders finished the game as they started, 0-0.

Profitable day here and that's all i can ask for - +1,88 units on the day,

taking our thread total to +14,76 units

3 games going on tomorrow in Brazil's Serie A, as usual i'll look into them tomorrow afternoon as post the plays i find.

Cheers and best of luck

[silvap]

3 games going on in Brazil, here are my picks for tonight:

Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama - under 2.5 goals (1.9) - Botafogo is a team that trends a little under at home, with 53% of their matches going under. In their last 11 at home, only 3 games went over. More importantly, Vasco is a stunning 93% on under away from home, meaning that one single game in their road campaign has had 3 goals. They also have the second best away defense in Brazil. For tonight, they will be missing striker Alecssandro who is injured as well as Tenório, another important piece. Also importantly, Dédé, their ace center back has return from national team duties, after missing two games where Vasco conceded a total of 4 goals.

São Paulo -1.5 vs Atletico GO (1.74) - Should have jumped on the -1.5 line last night as it has since moved to a worst price. São Paulo has been tremendous at home, with the second best record in Brazil. When facing the bottom half of the standing teams (Atletico is dead last at 20th), they won all of their 9 games, 7 of those by multiple goals. In excellent recent form (5 wins in their last 6 overall), motivated by getting into the top 4 spots in the last game (top 4 in Brazil get acess to Libertadores Cup) and with pretty much their full squad - Lucas is back from national team duties and will join São Paulo's potent offense of Jadson, Osvaldo and Luis Fabiano, they should have an easy game against what is probably the worst team in Brazil's Serie A.

Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta - Under 2.5 goals (1.94) - Sport Recife trends under at home, with 60% of their home games having gone under. When they play bottom half of the standing teams, they have gone under on 5 of their 7 matches. Although Ponte Preta trends decidedly on the over (67% of their away games have seen 3 or more goals), when they play the bottom teams (15th and bellow as Sport Recife is now 19th) only 1 in 4 games has gone over. Ponte Preta has struggled to score lately, netting just 2 goals in their last 6 overall and Recife having the second worst home scoring offense in the league, i think both teams will have trouble finding the net tonight.

3 games and 3 plays for tonight, best of luck on yours as always, cheers!

[Omaga]

[MetalHeadJeff86]

3 games going on in Brazil, here are my picks for tonight:

Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama - under 2.5 goals (1.9) - Botafogo is a team that trends a little under at home, with 53% of their matches going under. In their last 11 at home, only 3 games went over. More importantly, Vasco is a stunning 93% on under away from home, meaning that one single game in their road campaign has had 3 goals. They also have the second best away defense in Brazil. For tonight, they will be missing striker Alecssandro who is injured as well as Tenório, another important piece. Also importantly, Dédé, their ace center back has return from national team duties, after missing two games where Vasco conceded a total of 4 goals.

São Paulo -1.5 vs Atletico GO (1.74) - Should have jumped on the -1.5 line last night as it has since moved to a worst price. São Paulo has been tremendous at home, with the second best record in Brazil. When facing the bottom half of the standing teams (Atletico is dead last at 20th), they won all of their 9 games, 7 of those by multiple goals. In excellent recent form (5 wins in their last 6 overall), motivated by getting into the top 4 spots in the last game (top 4 in Brazil get acess to Libertadores Cup) and with pretty much their full squad - Lucas is back from national team duties and will join São Paulo's potent offense of Jadson, Osvaldo and Luis Fabiano, they should have an easy game against what is probably the worst team in Brazil's Serie A.

Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta - Under 2.5 goals (1.94) - Sport Recife trends under at home, with 60% of their home games having gone under. When they play bottom half of the standing teams, they have gone under on 5 of their 7 matches. Although Ponte Preta trends decidedly on the over (67% of their away games have seen 3 or more goals), when they play the bottom teams (15th and bellow as Sport Recife is now 19th) only 1 in 4 games has gone over. Ponte Preta has struggled to score lately, netting just 2 goals in their last 6 overall and Recife having the second worst home scoring offense in the league, i think both teams will have trouble finding the net tonight.

3 games and 3 plays for tonight, best of luck on yours as always, cheers!

Taking Sao Paulo/Atletico Over 3. Should be able to hit. Teams combined for 7 goals back in July.

[silvap]

Bad day tonight, guess we were due to have one of these sometime.

Both the under were lost in the first halves,
at least Sao Paulo did their thing and got a 2-0 win to cash our bet, guess i'm glad i didn't take the -1.5/2 line like i going to..

-1.26 units for the day,

thread total now at +13.5 units.

4 games in Serie B tomorrow, as usual will look into them tomorrow for value and post what i find

cheers and best of luck

[tr4sh]

I think you're actually down -0.76 units for the day, which is not bad at all

[silvap]

4 games in Serie B, Brazil's second division, going on tonight and here is what i like:

Grémio Barueri vs São Caetano -0.5 (1.8) - São Caetano has the best away record in Brazil Serie B, actually racking up as many points on the road as they have at home. Tonight they travel to face Gremio Barueri, 19th in the league and actually the worst home team in Serie B with only 3 wins in 15 matches. Sao Caetano has 4 wins in 5 away matches against teams ranked 15th and bellow.

Ipatinga vs America Natal - Under 2.5/3 (1.79) 1.5 Units - Being a little conservative with the line but going with one unit and a half on this one. Ipatinga trends slightly under at home (53% of under 2.5 games) and when facing teams in the middle of the table (5th to 15th as America is 9th) their games went under 7 times in 10 games. Furthermore, only twice in 15 home games have there been 4 or more goals. As for America, 60% of their away games go under and, more importantly, when they face the bottom half of the standings teams (Ipatinga is 20th), 7 of their 8 games went under 2.5. Paying a little juice to get some insurance, but i really like this one.

ASA vs Ceará - 0.5 units on Draw (3.55) - ASA has been pretty good at home lately, racking up 5 wins in their last 6. Ceará lost all their last 3 away matches, although in their defense they did face teams ranked 1st, 4th and 5th in the standings. They are still an above average away team, ranked 7th in the away standings. Before those 3 though games, they actually had 4 wins and one draw in 5 road games. Ceará in 8th overall has the better team (ASA is 13th overall) but i expect the home court advantage to make it a tight game. With no clear edge for either team, in my view, i'll take the draw here at some good odds.

Avaí pk vs Goiás (1.84) - Two teams in good form. Goiás is rolling with 7 wins in their last 8 matches. Although they have the 3rd best away record, they got those points at the expense of the bad teams - in fact, their only win against a top half of the standings team was against 10th ranked America Mineiro. When facing teams 9th and up, they have 4 losses and 2 draws, showing they have a tougher time when playing better than average teams on the road. As for Avaí, they are a very strong home team, with the 4th best home record and on a great streak - 9 wins in their last 10 home games. Expect this to be a hard fought game between two good teams.

[Hereindallas]

Thanks for the picks. My bets are placed.

[i97g]

4 games in Serie B, Brazil's second division, going on tonight and here is what i like:

Grémio Barueri vs São Caetano -0.5 (1.8) - São Caetano has the best away record in Brazil Serie B, actually racking up as many points on the road as they have at home. Tonight they travel to face Gremio Barueri, 19th in the league and actually the worst home team in Serie B with only 3 wins in 15 matches. Sao Caetano has 4 wins in 5 away matches against teams ranked 15th and bellow.

Ipatinga vs America Natal - Under 2.5/3 (1.79) 1.5 Units - Being a little conservative with the line but going with one unit and a half on this one. Ipatinga trends slightly under at home (53% of under 2.5 games) and when facing teams in the middle of the table (5th to 15th as America is 9th) their games went under 7 times in 10 games. Furthermore, only twice in 15 home games have there been 4 or more goals. As for America, 60% of their away games go under and, more importantly, when they face the bottom half of the standings teams (Ipatinga is 20th), 7 of their 8 games went under 2.5. Paying a little juice to get some insurance, but i really like this one.

ASA vs Ceará - 0.5 units on Draw (3.55) - ASA has been pretty good at home lately, racking up 5 wins in their last 6. Ceará lost all their last 3 away matches, although in their defense they did face teams ranked 1st, 4th and 5th in the standings. They are still an above average away team, ranked 7th in the away standings. Before those 3 though games, they actually had 4 wins and one draw in 5 road games. Ceará in 8th overall has the better team (ASA is 13th overall) but i expect the home court advantage to make it a tight game. With no clear edge for either team, in my view, i'll take the draw here at some good odds.

Avaí pk vs Goiás (1.84) - Two teams in good form. Goiás is rolling with 7 wins in their last 8 matches. Although they have the 3rd best away record, they got those points at the expense of the bad teams - in fact, their only win against a top half of the standings team was against 10th ranked America Mineiro. When facing teams 9th and up, they have 4 losses and 2 draws, showing they have a tougher time when playing better than average teams on the road. As for Avaí, they are a very strong home team, with the 4th best home record and on a great streak - 9 wins in their last 10 home games. Expect this to be a hard fought game between two good teams.

Bon Gia!
I have been making some great money with your plays, I appreciate it A LOT. fact of the matter is that I will be going to 2 College Football games on Saturday and do not want to miss out on your Saturday Series A plays...are you able to post these plays a bit earlier so I can cash in? That would be amazing if you could assist?

Obrigado!

I.G.

[silvap]

So sorry guys, terrible fukking day, dumping all 4 units (assuming Avaí won't make a comeback, down 3-0 at the half)...
just brutal...

the last minute of the first half was not kind to us, as all 3 earlier games saw goals go against us on that minute - Sao Caetano up 2-1 (they were up 1-0 as well) allowing the draw, Ipatinga scoring a second goal on our under play and ASA opening the score and screw our tie...

hopefully tomorrow will be better, full card of games with matches on both leagues.

IG, i'll look into the games in the early afternoon, european time (guess morning is us), hopefully will be in time for you to catch them, although judging by today you me be better off missing them.

thread total now at +9.5

[Hereindallas]

Yep, that was for sure a bad day but hopefully today will be better.

[silvap]

3 games in Serie A tonight and a few more in Serie B, starting with the top league plays:

Gremio -1 vs Coritiba (1.97) - Although it wasn't the score they wanted, Gremio showed a lot of heart by taking an away draw away at leader Fluminense, after being down to 10 men. Playing at home, the team has the 3rd best record (also 3rd overall). With Sao Paulo closing in, Gremio will need the points to stay firm in G4, the top 4 teams that get acess to Libertadores. Coritiba has been playing well, actually winning all of their last 4 games, although against much weaker opposition. At the 11th spot in the standings, Coritiba has shown to do much better at home, being only the 14th on the road standings. Against teams in the top7 spots, they lost 4 of 5, 3 of which by multiple goals. Gremio won 7 of 8 vs teams in the bottom half, with 5 wins by multiple goals. Both teams will be missing players - Gremio will be without striker Marcelo Moreno, who played a grand total of 45 seconds in the game versus Fluminense, being sent off almost imediatly after getting subbed in. Coritiba will not have Deivid nor Lincoln, two key players in their recent streak.

Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro +0.5/1 - (2.060) - Palmeiras still believes they can stay in Serie A, after winning their last game vs Bahia. Cruzeiro struggled for a while but have shown signs of improvement lately, with two home wins and one away tie in their last 3. Looking at Palmeiras poor home record (18th overall and at home), we see they have not beaten a single in the top half of the standings, where Cruzeiro sits, at 8th and with the 6th best away record. Even without injured Montillo, i see Cruzeiro as having a good chance of getting one or even all three points and certainly don't expect Palmeiras to win by multple goals.

Two plays for Serie A, will look into the Serie B games in a little bit. Best of luck my friends

[Hereindallas]

Thanks a bunch.

[silvap]

Serie B plays:

Joinville -1/-1.5 vs CRB (1.9)- Joinville's good campaign has it's foundation on their excellent home record, where they won 7 of 8 games versus teams in the bottom half of the standings (where CRB sits, at 16th), with 5 of those wins by multiple goals. CRB has a pretty bad away record, having lost 10 of 12 when playing any team above 15th place.

Paraná vs Criciuma pk/+0.5 (1.79) - Paraná is a middle of the table team (12th) with a decent home record (9th best). Criciúma are the league leader in Brazil B and although they don't have a stellar away record (5th best), their problems have been against the top half of the standing teams as they only have two losses against teams outside the top 6. Knowing the race for the top spot is very close - Goias' win last night left them tied for 1st, with Vitoria just one point behind - I really like the price to profit a little from the draw and hope they get the win.

B-O-A vs Guaratinguetá - Over 2.5/3 goals (1.94) - B-OA at home has an impressive 80% of overs, as the team scores and concedes a ton of goals. Guaratinguetá has an atrocious away record, with 5 points in 15 matches, conceding in every single game and conceding multiple goals in 11 of those 15. They've actually manage to score some as well, netting at least one in 8 of 10 when playing teams 8th and bellow. Against teams in the bottom half of the standings, BO-A's games went over 6 of 7 times. Guaratinguetá has a 60% away record of overs this season, including 8 of 9 vs teams ranked 8th or bellow.

Only three plays tonight for Serie B, Serie A continues tomorrow with a few more games. Best of luck on your plays.

[dk70]

Odds drop at 5dimes on the Gremio match. Was -200, now -174.

They also pulled the Asian Hooks. Anything funny going on with the lineups?

[dk70]

Asian Hooks just came back.

[dk70]

Any thoughts on the late brazillian games?

[silvap]

Took the day off on sunday after getting punked on saturday in the brazil leagues. Got off to a good start nailing the first two bets and then lost the other 3 after. Brutal.

Thread total still very much in the green, +7,8 right now.

Serie B games going on today and i like:

Parlay - Atletico PR ml and Criciuma ml - 1 unit to win 1 unit - Taking this on on 5dimes. Two top4 teams in Serie B taking on bottom half of the standing teams who struggle on the road. Atlético has 7 wins in their last 8 at home and Criciuma has the best home record in Serie B. Pays just about even money.

Goias vs ASA - Under 2.5/3 goals (1.92) - Both teams trend heavily towards the under - Goias at 80% of home games under 2.5 and ASA with 67% away. With the cushion to get a half push at 3 (only 6 of these teams 30 games have seen more than 3 goals), i like this line a lot.

América Natal pk vs Joinville (1.97) - America has a pretty nice home record and lost only twice at home all season, while Joinville struggles on the road, having won only 3 away this season and none of their last 7. One of those spots where a draw is very possible but i feel a loss in unlikely.

America Natal vs Joinville - Under 2.5 goals (1.97) - When facing teams ranked 4th to 11th (Joinville is 6th), all of America's five home games went under. Similarly, with Joinville playing teams 5th to 15th (America is 10th), 5 of their 7 matches went under 2.5 goals.

CRB vs Vitória -0.5 (1.93) - Taking this one at 5dimes for a slightly better price. Vitória lost their last home game to Atletico PR and lost critical points in the race for the championship. They now sit 3rd, only 2 points behind leader Criciuma. They will look to get back on track with a road game against CRB, who are 16th in the league and on a slump - they have not won any of their last 9 overall and 7 at home. Against one of the better teams in Brazil B, i expect that slump to continue.

CRB vs Vitoria - Under 2.5/3 goals (1.78) - CRB has seen 67% of their home games go under 2.5. In their last 8 home games, they went under in 7 of those and have been held scoreless in 6. All 5 of Vitoria's away games against teams ranked 14th and bellow (CRB is 16th) have also gone under 2.5.

Guaratinguetá vs ABC - 0.5 units on Draw (3.47) - On the road, ABC got draws against teams ranked 14th, 16th and 19th and got a 2-1 win vs the 18th ranked team. Tonight they play Guaratinguetá, 17th ranked, who got a draw against 13th ranked and a one goal loss to 16th ranked team, with ABC in 15th i like the price.

That's it for tonight, hopefully we will get back on track today after a couple of bad days. Best of luck on your plays guys, cheers.

[Unsteeled101]

goodluck silvap!

[silvap]

Thanks my friend. Unfortunately Atletico PR started us on the wrong foot, allowing a draw after being up 1-0. I am doing a new parlay with Goias, a team in super shape lately, vs ASA, a tem that is pretty good at home but terrible on the road, with the 2nd worst record and keeping Criciuma in it.

Parlay: Goias ml vs Criciuma ml - 1 unit to win 0.9 units

[rdegk15]

WTF Criciuma... Did you bring out the 12 year old youth squad?




Sounds like a fixed game to me.

[andy888888]

WTF Criciuma... Did you bring out the 12 year old youth squad?




Sounds like a fixed game to me.

worth putting it down as a draw or a home win then?

[silvap]

Yeah, no clue what the heck is going on on that Criciuma game... 0-3 at the end of the first half, just bizarre.
Noticed i had made another bet i forgot to post:

America Mineiro vs Bo-A ** - Under 2.5/3 goals (1.85)

[rdegk15]

Not at this rate.

[rdegk15]

Fricken Gremio haven't scored three in a game basically the entire season and they put up three on the road against the first place team in the first half?

Something sketchy going on..

[andy888888]

wtf 4-0? seriously i hope they choke on promotion this season

[rdegk15]

WTF did the stupid f u c k forget they were playing soccer

[andy888888]

got them in a sodding parlay which was pulling off till these amateurs decided to not give 2 shits

[pokerwhiz90]

there goes goias...

[rdegk15]

there goes goias...

That makes it a bit more disappointing that Goias is going off.

[silvap]

Fuks sake, no goals in the first half and goias goes and scores 4 in the 2nd...

[pokerwhiz90]

what is the unit count for the day so far lol?

[rdegk15]

4 Criciuma goals in the last 10 minutes?