Yup one more goal gets a $3000 parlay done for Wtt and me.....
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Also need Portuguesa to score one and level things!
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Cheering for Wtt let's get this 1 damn goalComment -
Not for nothing but Fluminense scores another goal. Good stuff!Comment -
Great goal 2-0 now great night so farComment -
1 more for santos. Anyway thanks for the tips
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First batch of games done in brazil and with these results we've guaranteed a bit of profit regardless of how the last game goes:
Cruzeiro 2 - Portuguesa 0 - -0.5 units
Bahia 0 - Fluminense 2 - +0.7 units
Botafogo 0 - Santos 2 - under cashes for 1 unit
so we're up 1.2 units for the night with a 0.75 unit bet to go meaning a least a half unit profit for the day, although i obviously hope it will be more as we cash our draw in the Internacional vs Atletico Mineiro game.Comment -
Nice picks cashed on the Fluminese from u thanxComment -
nice! lets get this draw
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came home from romantic dinner to see fluminese win 2-0 F Yeah!
1) BET ID=392826372 Straight Wager 10/10/12 18:29 ET Share on twitterShare on facebook bet 202.24 to win 505.60 (paid 707.84) Result: Wager Won (3508) - Brazil Serie A - Draw No Bet & Adjusted Line - 90 Minutes Only Bahia 0
Fluminense 210/10/12(18:30 ET)
Fluminense -1 (+250)Comment -
Well we miss our draws (in fact, not a single tie in all 8 games in Brazil tonight), but we end up collecting a little bit of profit for the day. Mostly, i'm just glad i ended up laying off some plays i considered and would have missed.
Not 100% sure but i think this half a unit makes it +5.5 units up for the thread, hope i am not misleading anyone.
2 games in Serie A tomorrow, will look into them tomorrow afternoon and post plays if i like something there.
Cheers guysComment -
Very nice one there jesse! balsy bet too!Comment -
any plays today?Comment -
Two games going on in Brazil's top division tonight and one play i like out there:
Sport Recife vs Gremio - Under 2.5 goals (1.87) - Books ask for some juice on this one but i believe we still have value here - 64% of Recife's home games have went under as well as 57% of Gremio's away matches. 6 of Recife's last 8 at home had less than 3 goals and 5 of Gremio's last 7 on the road went under 2.5 as well. Gremio will be missing a series of key players, including striker Marcelo Moreno (on national team duties) and midfielders Elano and Zé Roberto, all very important to Gremio's offense.
Best of luck as alwaysComment -
tough night but good all together, its ok! lets go to the next roundComment -
-1 unit last night as our only play lost with Gremio beating Sport 3-1, crushing our under. I think the timming of the first goal (last minute of the first half) really hurt us, as Recife came into the second half too eager to get the equalizer and exposed themselves too much, allowing Gremio to score. Anyway, on to today, with two games in Serie B:
ABC vs Atletico Paranaense pk (1.82) - ABC is only 17th in the home standings while Atletico is the 4th best team on the road. Not only that, but ABC doesn not have a single home win against a team in the top half of the standings as their best win was against 13th ranked Guarani. Atletico dropped their last two on the road but before that they had 5 wins in 7 away matches. Still looking to get into the top spots that get promoted to Serie A, Atletico knows they can't lose any more points.
ABC vs Atletico PR - Under 2.5/3 goals (1.96) - The books expect plenty of goals on this one and I can see their points - Atletico's games have gone over in their last 7 overall and 64% of the time they play away from home. However, looking at the numebers closely, we can see some things differently - when they play the bottom teams (14th and bellow as ABC is 15th), only 3 of their 6 matches went over 2.5 and only 1 of all their 8 games against teams in bottom half of the standings had more than 3 goals. Looking at ABC stats, we see that their games are 50-50% on over 2.5 goals at home, but only 1 of their 6 matches against the top half of the standing teams (the good teams) have gone over 2.5, showing that they struggle a lot to score against the better teams - in fact, they have only scored in one of those 6 games against the top10 teams in the league. Seeing as we can get a half-push on a 3 goal game, i see some very nice value here.
Guarani to win vs Bragantino (1.71) - Even with the juice we get some value here on a decent home team playing a horrible away team. More than betting on Guarani, who have won their 4 matches vs teams 16th or bellow (Bragantino is 18th), we are fading Bragantino on the road, as they 10 losses in 14 road matches and lost all their last 6 on the road (scoring in only one of them).
Those are my plays for tonight. Lots of games in Brazil going on tomorrow.
Best of luck on your plays guys, cheers.Comment -
Thanks for the inputs. Gl
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Both games ended and we pick up a little something:
Guarani craps at home and loses 2-1 to bragantino but
Atletico gets a 1-0 win to cash both our pk and our under
so +0.8 unit for the day
Season so far, if i'm not mistaken:
4,5 units up going into today
+0.8=
5,3 units in profit for the thread
whole bunch of games tomorrow on both Serie A and B, will look for value on them tomorrow and post the plays i find.
Cheers and best of luckComment -
Both leagues in action tonight, here is where i found some value:
Serie B:
America Mineiro vs Goias pk/-0.5 (2.1) - Despite being 10th overall, America Mineiro is only 14th in the home standings, much because of their recent home struggle, where they have gotten only one win in the last 9 at home, including a home loss to 19th ranked Gremio Barueri in the last match. Goias on the other hand are 3rd overall and 4th in the away standings, having won 6 of their last 9 road matches. Their away stumbles have been almost exclusively to the better teams - they have won 6 of 8 when playing teams in the bottom half of the standings. Knowing the fight to stay in the top 4 spots that get the promotion to Serie A is tight, they are aware they cannot drop points here.
America Mineiro vs Goias - Over 2.5 goals (1.83) - Some juice here but still well worth it, as both teams have a 64% record of going over in their respective cases tonight (America on home games and Goias on away matches). 4 of 5 matches that America played vs the top 6 teams have had 3 or more goals as well as 4 of 5 for Goias when playing teams ranked 8th to 14th also going over.
Ceará vs America RN +1 (1.77) - Two glued in the standings (8th and 9th respectively) and separated by a single point. Although Ceará has the advantage, they are still only 13th in the home standings and have only two home wins all season by more than one goal (against 15th and 19th ranked teams). As for América RN, despite not being a particularly dangerous road team (11th in the away standings), have been a though cookie to crack, with only one away loss by multiple goals (more than 10 road matches ago). Although i would not be surprised if Ceará won, i still expect either a one goal game or a draw and think the risk of getting a loss on our bet to be much smaller than the line we're getting (=value)
B-O-A vs Cricíuma pk (1.87) - B-O-A has been good at home lately, winning 4 of their last 5 on their stadium. Those wins, however, were against teams ranked 11th, 14th, 17th and 20th. Tonight they will be facing Cricíuma, 2nd in Brazil's Serie B just two points behind the leader Vitoria. Cricíuma has gotten most of their points at home, where they have a stunning 13 wins in 14 matches. On the road, they are th 5th best team. If we look closely, we'll see that B-O-A has only one win against the top half of the standings and Criciúmas away problems have been only against the top teams - they have 5 wins and only 1 loss in their road matches against the bottom half of the standing teams. One of those spots where a push is possible but a win is much more likely than a loss.
Avaí -1/-1.5 vs CRB (1.95) - Avaí is a very good home team, 4th in the home standings (7th overall) with 11 wins in 14 home matches. They have won every game against teams in the bottom half of the standings (where CRB sitts at 16th) with 4 of 8 being by two or more goals. CRB on the other hand is a bad away team and particularly bad against the better teams, having lost 6 of 7 against the top half teams. 6 of their 9 road losses were by multiple goals and I expect tonight to be that case again and Avaí getting a confortable win. In case they only manage a single goal win, we get a half push, making this a good deal.
Those are my Serie B picks for tonight, best of luck on your plays.
Posting the Serie A games in a few minutesComment -
Serie A games:
Flamengo vs Cruzeiro - 0.5 units on Draw (3.5) - Good price on a draw here for what should be a tight match between two teams who have struggled. Flamengo seemed to show some spirit a few games back but appear to have reverted back to their old ways, with 2 losses and one draw in their last 3. They will also be missing quite a few players on international duties, suspension or injury. As for Cruzeiro, they just snapped a 7 game winless streak with a home win against Portuguesa, but they are still hard to trust. Seeing as I find no team having a particular edge and the price on the draw being pretty decent, getting a half unit on it.
Flamengo vs Cruzeiro - under 2.5 goals (1.86) - Flamengo trends on the under at home, with 36% of their home games having gone that way, specially including 8 of their last 9 (!). As for Cruzeiro, their away games are evenly split at 50-50% for overs and unders, although 5 of their 7 against teams in the bottom half of the standings (Flamengo is 15th) have gone under.
Portuguesa vs Corinthias - 0.5 Unit on Draw (3.4) - A similar case to the Flamengo vs Cruzeiro game. Portuguesa is a good home team, 9th in the home standings and only 13th overall. Their good form, however, is only against the weak teams - they have won all their games against the bottom half of the standings teams and only 1 versus the top half. In their 8 games against the top 10 teams (Corinthias is 7th), they have 4 draws. As for Corinthias, they also do their damage against the bottom feeders of the league, without a single win against the top 12 teams (Portuguesa is 13th). They have collected 5 draws in their last 11 away matches, also a good sign for us.
That's it for tonight. Plenty of games and plenty of picks. Tomorrow Serie A goes on with a few more games.
Best of luck as always.Comment -
is it all mathematics for you Silvap?Comment -
no, not at all, i just look closely to the stats and combine that with news, injuries and my own analysis of teams, players and overall form. For some Serie B games i lean on the stats a little more because i can't watch as many games as in Serie A, but it is always a combination of factors.Comment -
America Mineiro vs Goias - Over 2.5 goals
Flamengo vs Cruzeiro - under 2.5 goals
Avaí -1/-1.5 vs CRB
my parlay for tonightthanks for the infos silvap!
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first goal goes to ceara 1-0, come on goias and criciuma!Comment -
Criciuma 0:1
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Come on goais one more goal pleaseeeeeeeeeeeeeeComment -
COME ON GOAIS ONE MORE GOAL PLEASEEEEEEEEEEEEEE<br>Comment -
10 more minutes come on!Comment -
Goal in extra time f yeah!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Comment -
Oh lala! 1-2! was quite worried back there HAHAComment -
Sorry unsteeled about the ireland parlay but this one hit!
2) BET ID=393131845 Parlay (3 Teams) 10/13/12 14:56 ET bet 130.05 to win 1,082.95 Result: Pending Goias (Serie B)
America Mineiro (Serie B)10/13/12(15:00 ET)
Goias (Serie B) +145Criciuma (Serie B)
BkofAma EC (Serie B)10/13/12(15:00 ET)
Criciuma (Serie B) +135America Natal/RN (Serie B)
Ceara SC (Serie B)10/13/12(15:00 ET)
Ceara SC (Serie B) -161Comment
